Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union Fighting Illicit Firearms Trafficking Routes and Actors at European Level Final Report of Project FIRE Co-funded by the Prevention of and Fight against Crime Programme of the European Union Final Report of Project FIRE – Fighting Illicit firearms trafficking Routes and actors at European level (HOME/2013/ISEC/FP/C1/4000005009) Edited by Ernesto U. Savona and Marina Mancuso With the collaboration of (in alphabetical order): Monica Angelini; Ian Anthony; Anna Brener; Stefano Caneppele; Carlotta Carbone; Daniele Ciminieri; Paolo Ciuccarelli; Marco Dugato; Serena Favarin; Lina Grip; Federica Daphne Ierace; Alexander Kamprad; Marta Lai; Michele Mauri; Margaux Morganti; Carlotta Parolo; Manjana Pecht; Azzurra Pini; Samuele Poy; Anna Raspa; Elisa Superchi; Chiara Zappaterreno; Mateja Zorc. ISBN: 978-88-99719-03-6 Suggested citation: Savona Ernesto U. and Mancuso Marina (Eds.). 2017. Fighting lllicit Firearms Trafficking Routes and Actors at European Level. Final Report of Project FIRE (www.fireproject.eu). Milano: Transcrime – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore © 2017. Credits: grandeduc, eskaylim, pavrich Graphic project: Ilaria Mastro (Transcrime – Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore) This project has been funded with the support of the European Commission. This publication reflects the views only of the author, and the European Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. Table of contents List of tables 9 List of figures 9 List of boxes 10 List of acronyms and abbreviations 11 Acknowledgements 13 Executive summary 14 1. Introduction 20 1.1. Project FIRE 20 1.2. Background and contribution of Project FIRE 20 1.3. Definitions of firearms and ITF 22 1.4. Structure of the report 23 PART I. ITF in the EU 24 2. Illicit supply chain of firearms and modi operandi 27 2.1. Sources of illicit firearms 27 2.1.1 Firearm diversion 29 2.1.2 Firearm conversion 30 2.2. Wholesale of illicit firearms 33 2.3. Retail of illicit firearms 36 2.4. Characteristics of actors in firearm seizures 36 3. Demand for illicit firearms 39 3.1. Characteristics of shooters using illicit firearms 40 3.2. Use of illicit firearms in shootings in the EU 42 4. Illicit firearms trafficked in the EU 49 4.1. Numbers and types of firearms seized 49 4.2. Illicit firearms used in shootings in the EU 55 5. ITF routes 56 5.1. Supplying countries 56 5.2. Transit countries 57 5.3. Destination countries 57 6. Illicit firearms-related harm 58 7. Cross-cutting issues 62 7.1. The “grey area” in ITF 62 7.2. An emerging firearms market: The dark web 64 PART II. The EU’s regulatory framework to counter ITF 68 8. Overview of the EU regulatory framework 69 8.1. 1991 Firearms Directive 69 8.2. 2008 amendment of the Firearms Directive 70 8.3. Regulation No 258/2012 74 8.4. The 2015 EU Deactivation Regulation 75 8.5. The 2015 EC Proposal for amending the Firearms Directive 75 9. Crime Proofing of the 2015 EC Proposal for amending the Firearms Directive 78 9.1. Initial Screening: The first step 78 9.2. Preliminary Crime Risk Assessment: The second step 85 9.3. Extended Crime Risk Assessment: The third step 91 9.4. Results of the Crime Proofing analysis of the 2015 EC Proposal for amending 98 the Firearms Directive PART III. Recommendations on how to improve the prevention of and fight against ITF 99 10. Recommendations 100 11. Conclusions 106 References 107 Authors Chapter 1: Marina Mancuso and Alexander Kamprad (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore -Transcrime) Chapter 2: Elisa Superchi and Alexander Kamprad (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 3: Alexander Kamprad and Elisa Superchi (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime); Ian Anthony, Lina Grip and Manjana Pecht (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute) Chapter 4: Elisa Superchi and Alexander Kamprad (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime). With the collaboration of Serena Favarin (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 5: Elisa Superchi and Carlotta Carbone (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore-Transcrime) Chapter 6: Alexander Kamprad (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) With the collaboration of Marco Dugato (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 7: Alexander Kamprad and Carlotta Carbone (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 8: Ian Anthony, Lina Grip and Manjana Pecht (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute); Margaux Morganti (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 9: Margaux Morganti and Marina Mancuso (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime). With the collaboration of Anna Brener (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) Chapter 10: Margaux Morganti, Elisa Superchi, Alexander Kamprad and Marina Mancuso (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore -Transcrime) Chapter 11: Marina Mancuso (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore - Transcrime) List of tables Table 1. Existing estimates on ITF 25 Table 2. OCGs involved in ITF in the EU 34 Table 3. Number of shootings, shooters, victims, and injured in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 42 Table 4. Number of seizures and firearms seized in the EU per scale of seizure (2010-2015) 50 Table 5. Minimums, averages, and maximums of firearms seized in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 50 Table 6. The IS and the 7 risk indicators 78 Table 7. Policy Options of the Proposal and their correspondence to the 7 risk indicators of the IS 83 Table 8. The 7 IS risk indicators and envisaged crimes in the PCRA 89 Table 9. Level of crime risk associated with each policy options 91 List of figures Figure 1. Firearm conversion 31 Figure 2. Number of actors and firearms per scale of seizure in the EU (2010-2015) 36 Figure 3. Geographic origin of actors in firearm seizures in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 37 Figure 4. Geographic origin of actors in firearm seizures in the EU per scale of firearm seizure and 37 macro-region (2010-2015) Figure 5. Age of actors in firearm seizures in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 38 Figure 6. Age of actors in firearm seizures in the EU per scale of seizure (2010-2015) 38 Figure 7. Age of shooters in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 41 Figure 8. Geographic origin of shooters in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 41 Figure 9. Shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 43 Figure 10. Deadly and non-deadly shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 43 Figure 11. Number of deadly shootings in the EU per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 44 Figure 12. Rate of deadly shootings in the EU per 100,000 inhabitants per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 45 Figure 13. Number of non-deadly shootings in the EU per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 46 Figure 14. Rate of non-deadly shootings in the EU per 100,000 inhabitants per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 47 Figure 15. Types of deadly and non-deadly shootings in the EU (2010-2015) 48 Figure 16. Seizures in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 51 Figure 17. Number of firearms seized in EU per macro-region and year (2010-2015) 51 Figure 18. Number of firearms seized in the EU per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 52 Figure 19. Rate of firearms seized in the EU per 100,000 inhabitants per region (NUTS 2) (2010-2015) 53 Figure 20. Storage of firearms seized in the EU (2010-2015) 54 9 Figure 21. Storage of firearms seized in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 54 Figure 22. Types of firearms seized in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 55 Figure 23. Types of firearms used in shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 55 Figure 24. Gender distribution of injured and victims of shootings in the EU per macro-region 59 (2010-2015) Figure 25. Distribution of victims by gender, divided by type of shooting and macro-region in the EU 59 (2010-2015) Figure 26. Age of injured and victims of shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 60 Figure 27. Age of victims of shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 60 Figure 28. Age of injured in shootings in the EU per macro-region (2010-2015) 60 Figure 29. Geographic origin of injured and victims of shootings in the EU per macro-region 61 (2010-2015) Figure 30. Types of firearm-related offers on the dark web 65 Figure 31. Brands of firearms offered on the dark web 65 Figure 32. Firearm offers on the dark web by type of firearm 66 Figure 33. Total of firearms offered on the dark web by type of firearm 66 Figure 34. Duration of firearm-related offers on the dark web by type of offer 67 Figure 35. Place of origin and destination of firearms exchanged on the dark web 67 List of boxes Box 1. Open source data disclaimer 22 Box 2. 3D-printed firearms 28 Box 3. Firearm stockpiles 29 Box 4. Terminology related to firearm conversion 30 Box 5. Case study: Reactivation of deactivated firearms 31 Box 6. Case study: Reactivation and trafficking of deactivated firearms 31 Box 7. Case study: Trafficking firearms in exchange for artworks 35 Box 8. Case study: Exploiting consolidated routes and criminal networks for multiple trafficking activities 35 Box 9. Case study: Supply of firearms in countries with lax gun laws 35 Box 10. Case study: Reliance on corrupt agreements to avoid detection 36 Box 11. Case study: Trafficking firearms for instrumental use 39 Box 12. Case study: The pivotal role of Balkan countries as sources of firearms 56 Box 13. Case study: Trafficking firearms to Italy 58 Box 14. Case study: The “grey area” in ITF 63 Box 15. Case study: The Munich Shooting 65 Box 16. Dark web data disclaimer 65 10