Extreme Crisis Leadership This concise handbook presents a framework to help leaders across sectors understand what their role should be in an extreme crisis and supplements this understanding with practical advice. Leadership is often presented as a kind of mastery—but no single person can master an extreme crisis event such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Leaders need a workable resource based on research and experience that can be accessed quickly and referenced easily to effectively handle crises and mitigate reper- cussions: This handbook is that resource. It begins with diagnostic tools to identify crisis types and leadership roles, then presents an easy-to-use matrix framework that allows readers to focus on the specific example-based section that best fits their role and the kind of crisis they face. This handbook is accessible to leaders at all levels, from shift supervisors and emergency responders to CEOs and government executives. It will be an essential ready reference for any leader who might expect to encounter an extreme crisis, as well as for those who would not have foreseen themselves in such a situation. Dr. Charles A. Casto is a safety and regulatory professional with over 45 years of experience, including executive, regulatory, technical, and operational roles. Dr. Casto is the recipient of both the US Presidential Distinguished Award (2012) and the US Meritorious Rank Award (2009) and he served at the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for 28 years. His international experience as an extreme crisis leader includes having led the integrated US Government and NRC effort in Japan during and after the Fukushima nuclear accident, representing the US Government to the Japanese Prime Minister’s Cabinet. Extreme Crisis Leadership A Handbook for Leading Through the Unpredictable Charles A. Casto First published 2023 by Routledge 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158 and by Routledge 4 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2023 Charles A. Casto The right of Charles A. Casto to be identified as author of this work has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to infringe. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Casto, Charles A, author. Title: Extreme crisis leadership : a handbook to managing the unpredictable / Charles A Casto. Description: 1 Edition. | New York, NY : Routledge, 2023. | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Identifiers: LCCN 2022027823 | ISBN 9781032266350 (hardback) | ISBN 9781032266336 (paperback) | ISBN 9781003289180 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Crisis management. | Leadership. | COVID-19 Pandemic, 2020---Influence. Classification: LCC HD49 .C387 2023 | DDC 658.4/056--dc23/ eng/20220725 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2022027823 ISBN: 9781032266350 (hbk) ISBN: 9781032266336 (pbk) ISBN: 9781003289180 (ebk) DOI: 10.4324/9781003289180 Typeset in Bembo by KnowledgeWorks Global Ltd. Dedication The inspiration for this handbook came from a friend’s experience leading through a cyber-attack on the State of Georgia computer systems. She used my book Station Blackout - Inside the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster as a guide in responding to that crisis. From her experience, I thought creating a simple handbook for crisis leaders was worthwhile. This handbook was written for you for those leaders who find themselves in an extreme crisis without a clear path. I hope it provides you with a more straightforward path through the crisis. Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Key terms and concepts 4 3 Crisis types 12 4 Cross-case issues 18 5 Black Elephant crises 27 6 Gray Rhino crises 40 7 Gray Swan crises 55 8 Black Swan crises 68 9 Conclusion 90 Index 92 1 CHAPTER Introduction We’re accustomed to thinking about leadership as a kind of mastery—of people, resources, information, and decisions. Reality often falls short of this ideal, but nothing guts it as completely as an extreme crisis. These are the events, like Apollo 13 or the Fukushima nuclear disaster, that seem too huge and too horrible to plan for. They catch us flat-footed, smashing normal pro- tocols and threatening not only the event site but also the wider community. No single person can master an event like this. Anyone who tries to con- trol 100%, or even 50%, of the crisis space will control none of it. For leaders who strive for mastery, this experience is both disorienting and demoralizing. Once leaders recognize the limits of their impact, they are free to con- sider the real nature of their contribution: What part of the crisis do leaders have power over? What problems can they work on directly? Who can be influenced? What information and resources can leaders access, or offer to others? If leaders can’t fix it all—what can they do? This handbook offers a model for thinking through these questions, help- ing leaders of all stripes understand what their role should be in an extreme crisis. The theoretical framework will be supplemented with practical advice based on Dr. Charles A. Casto’s extensive interviews with global crisis lead- ers, his book on the Fukushima nuclear disaster, and a co-authored Harvard Business Review Article—How the Other Fukushima Survived. This handbook is a practical accompaniment to those references.1 Inevitably, response organizations will have hierarchies; however, in extreme crisis situations, all responders must know how to lead, regardless of rank. This handbook is for members of, or people who work with, the emergency operations center at organizations that may face an extreme crisis. These are the individuals who prevent, mitigate, prepare for, and respond to crises. They carry out emergency management and ensure the continuity of a crisis response operation by giving or receiving orders. DOI: 10.4324/9781003289180-1