EXTERNAL ACTORS AND NATIONAL PREFERENCE FORMATION: EUROPEAN ENERGY SECURITY POLICY & RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA by Callie Le Renard A Dissertation Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of George Mason University in Partial Fulfillment of The Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Public Policy Committee: Desmond Dinan, Chair Janine Wedel Mark Katz Mike Curtis, External Reader James Pfiffner, Program Director Mark Rozell, Dean Date: Fall Semester 2013 George Mason University Fairfax, VA External Actors and National Preference Formation: European Energy Security Policy & Relations with Russia A Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at George Mason University by Callie Le Renard Master of Public Policy Pepperdine University, 2005 Bachelor of Arts California State University, East Bay, 1999 Director: Desmond Dinan, Professor School of Public Policy Fall Semester 2013 George Mason University Fairfax, VA TThhiiss wwoorrkk iiss lliicceennsseedd uunnddeerr aa creative commons aattttrriibbuuttiioonn-noderivs 3.0 unported license. ii DEDICATION This is dedicated to my father, Herman Cordray, who passed away on March 8, 2011 and did not get to see me finish this dissertation. I know he would be proud of the work I have done and the scholar I’ve become. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my family, friends, colleagues and the others who have supported me through six and a half years on this roller coaster of hope, loss, grief, and finally success. I could not have done this without you all, and I am truly sorry I cannot mention everyone here by name. I hope you know who you are. My Mom, Tam Cordray, has been my unwavering support through chaos, loss, self doubt and fear, and I cannot express how grateful I am that we have developed such a close relationship as I’ve grown older. Without her and my late father, I would not be the determined, hard working, self-confident woman I now am. I can’t possibly thank my friends Rochelle Campbell and Jessica Butorac enough for keeping me sane when my life was otherwise falling apart. At the School of Public Policy, I’d like to thank Beth Eck and Shannon Williams for their expertise in negotiating the bureaucracy, as well as my classmates, Dissertation Committee Members and other faculty who have provided feedback and been wonderfully supportive, particularly through the last few months of writing. I’d also like to thank School of Public Policy and the President’s Office at George Mason University for providing me with the Graduate Assistantships that allowed me the time and funding to pursue this project. I am also grateful to the School of Public Policy, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Institute for Humane Studies for providing additional financial support for my fieldwork and writing. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables ...................................................................................................................... x List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xi List of Abbreviations and Symbols ................................................................................ xii Abstract ........................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter One: Framing the Problem ................................................................................ 1 Oil or Gas: What’s the Difference? ................................................................................. 4 Defining Energy Security .............................................................................................. 10 Natural Gas and Europe ................................................................................................ 13 Contributions and Organization .................................................................................... 16 Chapter Two: European Energy Security Policy & EU-Russia Relations .................... 19 The Current State of EU Energy Policy ........................................................................ 19 Legislation ................................................................................................................. 21 A Common Energy Policy ......................................................................................... 26 Other Measures .......................................................................................................... 31 Political and Strategic Developments in EU Supply Security ...................................... 33 The Southern Corridor ............................................................................................... 34 Unconventional Gas .................................................................................................. 37 Energy Security Policy & the Lisbon Treaty ................................................................ 39 EU-Russia Energy Relations ......................................................................................... 41 Chapter Three: A Review of the Literature ................................................................... 47 National Preference Formation in Member States ........................................................ 47 Interstate Bargaining ..................................................................................................... 57 Russian Foreign Policy.................................................................................................. 59 Chapter Four: Hypotheses, Research Questions & Methods ....................................... 69 Quantitative Analysis: Hypotheses & Research Questions........................................... 70 Qualitative Case Study Analysis: Hypotheses & Research Questions ......................... 73 v Data, Methods & Case Selection .................................................................................. 77 Quantitative Analysis of Voting Data ....................................................................... 78 Case Studies ............................................................................................................... 82 Case Selection............................................................................................................ 88 Case Study Structure ................................................................................................. 90 Chapter Five: Quantitative FIndings .............................................................................. 93 Chapter Six: Germany ................................................................................................... 103 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 103 Germany’s Post Cold War Relations with Russia ....................................................... 107 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 109 Germany’s Energy Policy ........................................................................................... 112 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 118 Major Infrastructure Projects: Cooperating with Russia ............................................. 120 Energy National Champions ....................................................................................... 124 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 127 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 128 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 130 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 132 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 134 Chapter Seven: Poland .................................................................................................. 137 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 137 Poland’s Post Cold War Relations with Russia .......................................................... 143 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 148 Poland’s Energy Policy ............................................................................................... 151 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 159 Major Infrastructure Projects: Cooperating with Russia ............................................. 161 Energy National Champions ....................................................................................... 165 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 166 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 168 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 170 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 172 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 174 vi Chapter Eight: The United Kingdom ............................................................................ 176 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 176 The United Kingdom’s Post Cold War Relations with Russia ................................... 181 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 185 The United Kingdom’s Energy Policy ........................................................................ 188 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 193 Major Infrastructure Projects: Cooperating with Russia ............................................. 196 Energy National Champions ....................................................................................... 197 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 198 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 199 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 202 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 204 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 206 Chapter Nine: Lithuania ................................................................................................ 209 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 209 Post-Communist Lithuania’s Relations with Russia ................................................... 213 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 217 Lithuania’s Energy Policy ........................................................................................... 220 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 224 Major Infrastructure Projects: Cooperating with Russia ............................................. 227 Energy National Champions ....................................................................................... 227 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 229 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 230 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 232 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 233 Conclusion ................................................................................................................... 236 Chapter Ten: France ...................................................................................................... 239 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 239 France’s Post Cold War Relations with Russia ........................................................... 242 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 247 France’s Energy Policy ............................................................................................... 249 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 254 vii Major Infrastructure Projects: Cooperating with Russia ............................................. 256 Energy National Champions ....................................................................................... 260 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 264 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 266 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 268 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 269 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 271 Chapter Eleven: Bulgaria .............................................................................................. 274 Historical Context ....................................................................................................... 274 Bulgaria’s Post Cold War Relations with Russia ........................................................ 277 Energy Relations with Russia ..................................................................................... 280 Bulgaria’s Energy Policy ............................................................................................ 283 Attitude Toward Further Integration ........................................................................... 289 Major Infrastructure Projects ...................................................................................... 292 National Champions .................................................................................................... 294 Historical Narratives ................................................................................................... 297 Economic Ideology ..................................................................................................... 299 Economic Structure ..................................................................................................... 302 Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 303 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 305 Chapter Twelve: Findings ............................................................................................. 308 Results ......................................................................................................................... 308 Research Question 2: Major Infrastructure Projects................................................ 311 Research Question 3: National Champions ............................................................. 312 Research Question 4: Historical Narratives ............................................................. 314 Research Question 5: Economic Ideologies ............................................................ 316 Research Question 5a: Economic Structure ............................................................ 318 Hypotheses .................................................................................................................. 319 Hypothesis 2: Infrastructure Projects ...................................................................... 320 Hypothesis 3: National Champions ......................................................................... 321 Hypothesis 4: Historical Narratives ......................................................................... 321 Hypothesis 5: Economic Factors ............................................................................. 322 viii Multicollinearity? ........................................................................................................ 323 Surprises ...................................................................................................................... 324 Difficulties with this Research .................................................................................... 327 Chapter Thirteen: History Matters – Conclusions & Policy Recommendations....... 329 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 329 The External Actor .................................................................................................. 332 Policy Recommendations ............................................................................................ 333 Areas for Future Research ........................................................................................... 336 East vs. West German Perceptions of Russia .......................................................... 336 National Preferences & Energy Security Policy...................................................... 338 Conflict Resolution .................................................................................................. 339 External Actors ........................................................................................................ 341 References ...................................................................................................................... 342 ix