Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission technical series 136 EXERCISE CARIBE WAVE 18 A Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Warning Exercise 15 March 2018 (Barbados, Colombia and Puerto Rico Scenarios) Volume 1 Participant Handbook UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission technical series 136 EXERCISE CARIBE WAVE 18 A Caribbean and Adjacent Regions Tsunami Warning Exercise 15 March 2018 (Barbados, Colombia and Puerto Rico Scenarios) Volume 1 Participant Handbook UNESCO 2017 UNESCO IOC Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and the other Coastal Hazard Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions IOC Technical Series, 136 (volume 1) Paris, October 2017 English only The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariats of UNESCO and IOC concerning the legal status of any country or territory, or its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of the frontiers of any country or territory. NOTE: The United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) pattern the contents of this handbook after the CARIBE WAVE 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 Exercises. Each of these exercises has a handbook published as IOC Technical Series. These CARIBE WAVE exercises followed the Pacific Wave exercises which commenced in 2008 with manual published by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (Exercise Pacific Wave 08: A Pacific-wide Tsunami Warning and Communication Exercise, 28-30 October 2008, IOC Technical Series, 82, Paris, UNESCO 2008). The UNESCO How to Plan, Conduct and Evaluate Tsunami Wave Exercises, IOC Manuals and Guides, 58 rev., Paris, UNESCO 2013 (English and Spanish) is another important reference. For bibliographic purposes, this document should be cited as follows: Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission. 2018. Exercise CARIBE WAVE 18. Tsunami Warning Exercise, 15 March 2018 (Barbados, Colombia and Puerto Rico Scenarios). Volume 1: Participant Handbook. IOC Technical Series No. 136 vol.1. Paris: UNESCO. (English only) Report prepared by: Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE-EWS) Published in 2017 by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, Place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP  UNESCO 2017 (IOC/2017/TS/136 Vol.1) IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page (i) TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary ............................................................................................................................. 1 1. BACKGROUND........................................................................................................... 1 1.1 EXERCISE JUSTIFICATION AND FRAMEWORK...................................................... 1 1.2 EXERCISE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI SCENARIO ............................................ 2 1.2.1 General Caribbean Tectonics ............................................................... 2 1.2.2 Barbados Scenario ............................................................................... 3 1.2.3 Colombia Scenario ............................................................................... 3 1.2.4 Puerto Rico Scenario ............................................................................ 4 1.2.5 Earthquake impact ................................................................................ 5 2. EXERCISE CONCEPT ................................................................................................ 6 2.1 PURPOSE .................................................................................................................. 6 2.2 OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................. 6 2.3 TYPE OF EXERCISE ................................................................................................. 6 2.4 TIMELINE ................................................................................................................... 8 3. PTWC PRODUCTS ..................................................................................................... 8 4. EXERCISE OUTLINE .................................................................................................. 9 4.1 GENERAL .................................................................................................................. 9 4.2 MASTER SCHEDULE (EXERCISE SCRIPT) ........................................................... 10 4.2.1 Barbados Earthquake Scenario .......................................................... 10 4.2.2 Colombia Earthquake Scenario .......................................................... 12 4.2.3 Puerto Rico Earthquake Scenario ...................................................... 13 4.3 ACTIONS IN CASE OF A REAL EVENT .................................................................. 13 4.4 PROCEDURE FOR FALSE ALARM ......................................................................... 13 4.5 RESOURCES ........................................................................................................... 14 4.6 COMMUNITY REGISTRATION ................................................................................ 14 4.7 MEDIA ARRANGEMENTS ....................................................................................... 14 5. POST-EXERCISE EVALUATION .............................................................................. 16 6. REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 16 ANNEXES A. Standard Operating Procedures ................................................................................ 19 B. Example Table Top Exercise .................................................................................... 23 C. Tsunami Source Scenarios Description .................................................................... 27 D. Earthquake Impact Scenarios ................................................................................... 37 E. TWC Dummy (Start of Exercise) Messages .............................................................. 45 F. TWC Exercise Messages .......................................................................................... 47 G. Sample Press Release for Local Media .................................................................. 149 IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page (ii) Summary The Intergovernmental Coordination Group for Tsunami and Other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (ICG/CARIBE EWS) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization’s (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Caribbean Regional Emergency Management Stakeholders (CEPREDENAC, CDEMA, and EMIZ) will be conducting a tsunami exercise on March 15, 2018. The purpose of this exercise is to advance tsunami preparedness efforts in the Caribbean Region, based on Puerto Rico, Colombia and Barbados scenarios. Three exercise scenarios have been planned. The first scenario described in this handbook simulates a tsunami generated by a magnitude 8.6 earthquake located off the eastern coast of Barbados. The second scenario is a tsunami generated by a magnitude 8.1 earthquake located off the Caribbean coast of Colombia. The third scenario is a tsunami generated by a magnitude 7.6 earthquake located off the western coast of Puerto Rico. The initial dummy message for the three scenarios will be issued by the CARIBE EWS Tsunami Service Provider Atlantic Ocean (U.S. Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC)) on March 15, 2018 at 1400 UTC and disseminated over all its standard broadcast channels. The dummy message is issued to test communications between the PTWC with Tsunami Warning Focal Points (TWFPs) and National Tsunami Warning Centers (NTWCs), and to start the exercise. As of 1405 UTC the PTWC will only send by emails the simulated tsunami products to officially designated TWFPs and NTWCs. Each country and territory will choose one scenario and decide if and how to disseminate messages within its area of responsibility. The manual includes the tsunami and earthquake scenarios information, timelines, and the PTWC dummy message and simulated exercise threat messages. High levels of vulnerability and risk to life and livelihoods from tsunamis along the Caribbean coast should provide a strong incentive for countries and local jurisdictions to prepare for a tsunami and participate in this exercise. IOC Technical Series, 136(1) 1. BACKGROUND 1.1 EXERCISE JUSTIFICATION AND FRAMEWORK This tsunami exercise is being conducted to assist tsunami preparedness efforts throughout the Caribbean region. Recent tsunamis, such as those in the Indian Ocean (2004), Samoa (2009), Haiti (2010), Chile (2010, 2014, 2015), and Japan (2011), attest to the importance of proper planning for tsunami response. Historical tsunami records from sources such as the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) show that over 105 tsunamis have been observed in the Caribbean over the past 500 years (Figure 1). These represent approximately 7-10% of the world’s oceanic tsunamis. Earthquake, landslide, and volcanic tsunami sources have all impacted the region. According to NCEI, in the past 500 years 4,561 people have lost their lives to tsunamis in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions. Since the most recent devastating tsunami of 1946, there has been an explosive population growth and influx of tourists along the Caribbean and Western Atlantic coasts increasing the tsunami vulnerability of the region (von Hillebrandt-Andrade, 2013). In addition to tsunamis, the region also has a long history of destructive earthquakes. Historical records show that major earthquakes have struck the Caribbean region many times during the past 500 years. Within the region there are multiple fault segments and submarine features that could be the source of earthquake and landslide generated tsunamis (Figure 2). The perimeter of the Caribbean plate is bordered by no fewer than four major plates (North America, South America, Nazca, and Cocos). Subduction occurs along the eastern and northeastern Atlantic margins of the Caribbean plate. Normal, transform thrust and strike slip faulting characterize northern South America, eastern Central America, the Cayman Ridge and Trench and the northern plate boundary (Benz et al, 2011). In addition to the local and regional sources, the region is also threatened by tele-tsunamis/trans-Atlantic tsunamis, like that of 1755 from Lisbon. With nearly 160 million people (Caribbean, Central America and Northern South America) now living in this region and a major earthquake occurring about every 50 years, the question is not if another major tsunami will happen, but when it happens will the region be prepared for the impact. The risk of earthquakes generating tsunamis in the Caribbean is real and should be taken seriously. Figure 1. Map of tsunami run-ups in the Caribbean 1493-2013 (National Centers for Environmental Information, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazards/tsu.shtml). Artist: Jessee Varner; originally published in von Hillebrandt-Andrade, 2013. Tsunami services for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions within the UNESCO IOC CARIBE st EWS framework are currently provided by the PTWC in Honolulu. On March 1 , 2016, the tsunami products for CARIBE EWS have been implemented. The PTWC issues tsunami products approximately two to ten minutes after an earthquake’s occurrence. As of 2016 the IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page 2 PTWC international products include tsunami information and threat messages (no longer watch messages). Primary recipients of the PTWC messages include TWFPs and NTWCs. These agencies are responsible to issue the corresponding warning messages within their area of responsibility according to established protocols. Figure 2. Major Tectonic features in the Caribbean (ten Brink et al., 2008). 1.2 EXERCISE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI SCENARIO This exercise will provide simulated tsunami threat messages from the PTWC based on a hypothetical magnitude; a Mw 8.6 earthquake located on Barbados, a Mw 8.1 earthquake located along the coast of Colombia and a Mw 7.6 located off the Caribbean coast of Puerto Rico (Figure 3). In order to understand the chosen hypothetical scenarios, let us look at a brief description of Caribbean tectonics concerning the three scenario regions with details of these areas and their justification. 1.2.1 General Caribbean Tectonics Extensive diversity and complexity of tectonic regimes characterizes the perimeter of the Caribbean plate, involving no fewer than four major plates (North America, South America, Nazca, and Cocos). Northern and southern boundaries of the Caribbean are mostly characterized by strike-slip motion, whereas subduction zones occur at both eastern and western boundaries. Intermediate and deep earthquakes, Wadati-Benioff zones, ocean trenches, and arcs of volcanoes clearly indicate subduction of oceanic lithosphere along the Central American and Atlantic Ocean margins of the Caribbean plate. Along the northeastern Caribbean plate boundary zone, from the Dominican Republic to the Island of Barbuda, relative motion between the North America plate and the Caribbean plate becomes increasingly complex and is partially accommodated by nearly arc-parallel subduction of the North America plate beneath the Caribbean plate. Moving east and south to the northern Lesser Antilles where the plate motion vector of the Caribbean plate relative to the North and South America plates is less oblique, resulting in active island-arc tectonics. The North and South America plates subduct towards the west beneath the Caribbean plate along the Lesser Antilles Trench at rates of approximately 20 mm/yr (DeMets et al. 2010). As a result of this subduction, there exist both intermediate focus earthquakes within the subducted plates and a chain of active volcanoes along the island arc, data that has been used to divide the arc into a northern and southern arc. Along the southern Lesser Antilles trench, the accretionary prism is anomalously thick and wide, raising awareness of the earthquake and tsunami potential. Farther west, the Southern Caribbean Deformed Belt has been developed due to the IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page 3 southward-verging underthrusting of Caribbean lithosphere beneath the northern coast of South America. The following three sub-sections describe the CARIBE WAVE 18 scenarios and present a justification on their tsunamigenic potential regardless of their probability of occurrence. 1.2.2 Barbados Scenario Although the Lesser Antilles is considered one of the most seismically active regions in the Caribbean, few of these events have been greater than M7.0 over the past century. The southern Caribbean plate boundary with the South America plate strikes east-west across Trinidad and western Venezuela at a relative rate of approximately 20 mm/yr. This boundary is characterized by major transform faults. The transition zone between subduction on the eastern and western margins of the Caribbean plate is characterized by diffuse seismicity involving low-to intermediate-magnitude (M<6.0) earthquakes of shallow to intermediate depth. A recent study by Hayes et al. (2013) looked at GPS-derived strain rates and historical events of the Lesser Antilles to quantify the potential earthquake and tsunami hazard of the region. Although their study concludes a large Mw 8.2+-0.4 event could occur at the latitude of Guadeloupe, several GPS studies (López et al., 2006; Manaker et al., 2007; Symithe et al., 2015) provide no particular concerns for the southern segment of the trench. López et al. (2006) proposed the entire Barbados accretionary prism moves along the Caribbean plate, whereas Symithe et al. (2015) used GPS data from the region to suggest very low coupling along the interface. Given this data evidence, plus that this region lacks the large earthquake record of its northern analog, the exercise in this region is purely hypothetical and seeks primarily tsunami preparedness for the immediate area. In this scenario, a Mw 8.6 earthquake located at 12.20°N -58.30°W ruptures along a 400 km by 100 km wide fault. With this scenario, the southern segment of the Lesser Antilles ruptures to create a tsunami that will mostly affect Barbados, however most of the energy is directed towards the southern Atlantic Ocean. 1.2.3 Colombia Scenario Colombia has a complex tectonic setting, due to its location at the convergence of three major plates: South America, Nazca and Caribbean. In front of its Caribbean coast lies the western segment of the ‘Southern Caribbean Deformed Belt - SCDB’, where the South America (rather, the ‘North Andean Block’, the Andean part of Colombia’s territory) and the Caribbean plate converge at a rate of 1-2 cm/yr (Toto & Kellogg, 1992) in ESE direction. While several major and destructive earthquakes have occurred in recent times elsewhere in Colombia, at its Nazca-South America convergence, at the triple junction in NW-Colombia, and on continental faults, there is no history of major earthquakes at the SCDB, which once underthrusted displays very low dip and very low seismicity. Some authors attribute its low level of seismicity and apparent lack of potential for major events also to its ingestion of large amounts of very porous and saturated sediments (Toto & Kellogg, 1992). Recently, a study by Mencin et al. (2015) used a large network of GPS sites in Colombia and Venezuela to preliminary suggest the SCDB is currently active. If this data suggest this strain occurring there, then the SCDB While the real potential of large thrust events at the SCDB is still a subject of ongoing research, its neighboring thrust system to the W, the ‘Northern Panama Deformed Belt – NPDB’, has already shown its potential for tsunamigenic earthquakes; the 1882 event, with a magnitude estimated between 7.9 (Camacho & Viquez, 1992) and 8.3, marked 0.62 m at the Colón tide gage and swept over the San Blas Archipelago with waves above 6 m (Mendoza & Nishenko, 1989). So far, this is the only seismic source in the western Caribbean that poses a known tsunami threat to Colombia´s Caribbean coast. Recently Leslie & Mann (2016) presented evidence of very large prehistoric tsunami caused by giant submarine mass movements on the - still active - fan deposited by Colombia's river Magdalena. These slides compare to the th largest ones known worldwide. On the 19 of July 2017 wave with heights close to 1 m swept over several coastal villages south of Santa Marta. Testimonial information reported in the press allow to relate this event to a submarine landslide. For this exercise a M 8.1 earthquake IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page 4 located at 11.4°N -74.8°W ruptures a 300 km long by 30 km wide fault segment at 19.39 km depth. The scenario produces localized wave amplitudes between one and more than five meters, and regional amplitudes less than one meter. Shaking intensities reach up to VII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale, according to Shakemap (Appendix D). 1.2.4 Puerto Rico Scenario The northeastern corner of the Caribbean plate shows complex tectonics processes due to the convergence between the North America and Caribbean plates. The dominant plate motion between these plates in this area is left-lateral strike-slip with a small thrust component of the North America plate subducting beneath the Caribbean plate. The Caribbean plate shows velocities of 19 ± 0.4 mm/yr towards the ENE in a North America Fixed Reference Frame (DeMets et al. 2007). Geological data, marine geophysical studies, seismicity and geodesy have been used to define at least two microplates in this region; the Hispaniola platelet and the Puerto Rico-Virgin Islands microplate. The Mona Passage, with a rate of motion of 5 ± 3 mm/yr in a North America Fixed Reference Frame (Jansma and Mattioli, 2005), is the active feature accommodating the separation between the two blocks. This relative movement explains the presence of extensional features in the Mona Passage seafloor and the seismic activity along the area, and may have been responsible for the occurrence of the October 11, 1918 earthquake and tsunami. However, which particular fault within the Mona Passage ruptured during the earthquake is still uncertain. Therefore, two models have been suggested to describe the source of the 1918 earthquake and tsunami. The first model is based on Reid and Taber (1919) observations of the arrival times of the tsunami to western Puerto Rico coasts. This model suggests a N-S fault rupture orientation as the probable source of the tsunami because prominent N-S trending faults have been expected based on the morphology of the Mona Canyon. Mercado and McCann (1998) modelled this source and obtained results in good agreement with observed tsunami wave arrival times. However, the lack of recent seafloor rupture on multichannel seismic lines from the region led López-Venegas et al. (2008) to conclude that if the source of the 1918 event was at the Mona Canyon, then the fault must have occurred on a blind fault that failed to rupture all the way to the surface. A recent high-resolution bathymetric survey by Chaytor & ten Brink (2010) was used to postulate a new interpretation of the Mona Passage, in which active sea floor extensional features in two distinctive orientations may have been related to the 1918 event. Their work suggest that the most probable deformation model for the Mona Passage is an oblique extension, which explains the E-W trending normal faults with internal NW-SE normal faults. Furthermore, this second model also provides agreement with the seismic damage described in Reid and Taber (1919) and LaForge and McCann (2017), and also agrees with the hypocenter determined by Russo & Bareford (1993). Although the waveform inversion of Doser et al. (2005) yielded high uncertainties in the fault plane solutions, a causative E-W trending fault is not far from their chosen auxiliary plane, and given the hypocenter location, it is understandable the second model yields a better source. Therefore, for CARIBE WAVE 18 exercise purposes; this second model will be used as the tsunami source. The parameters of the source are based on a pure normal fault (rake = -90) with azimuth at 110 degrees, with a dip of 70 degrees towards the SW, that is 80 km in length and 20 km in width. With these values and an average slip of 6m it yields a Mw 7.6 event. IOC Technical Series, 136(1) page 5 Figure 3. Map of the CARIBE WAVE 18 scenarios. Stars indicate epicenteral locations and the red boxes indicate the map view of the ruptured fault segments. The figure is underlain by etopo1 model of Amante and Eakins (2009). This figure was generated using The Generic Mapping Tool (GMT) (Wessel et al., 2013). 1.2.5 Earthquake impact For many countries, in addition to knowing the potential impact from the tsunami, it is also important to consider the potential earthquake impact. This is especially important for those in the near field. In consideration of this, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) provided for CARIBE WAVE 18 the scenario outputs of their ShakeMap and the Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) products. These results provide emergency responders, government, aid agencies and the media the scope of the potential earthquake related disaster. ShakeMap illustrates the ground shaking levels close to the earthquake source depending on a set of parameters such as distance to the source, rock and soil behavior and seismic wave propagation through the crust (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/shakemap/). PAGER is based on the earthquake shaking (via ShakeMap) and analyses of the population exposed to each level of shaking intensity with models of economic and fatality losses based on past earthquakes in each country or region of the world (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/research/pager/). For the CARIBE WAVE 18 scenarios, the USGS estimated that significant casualties and damage are likely from the earthquakes themselves, which would require regional or national level response. According to the PAGER results, the countries that are going to receive the greatest impact from the earthquakes are Barbados, Colombia, and Puerto Rico. Complete information about the PAGER output for the exercise scenario is available in the Annex D of this handbook. Exercises like this will help ensure that Caribbean and Adjacent regions are ready to respond in the event of a dangerous tsunami. Similar recent exercises in the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE WAVE and LANTEX) as well as the Pacific and Northeast Atlantic and Mediterranean Basins have proven effective in strengthening preparedness levels of emergency management organizations.