SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES EXAM STAM SHORT-TERM ACTUARIAL MATHEMATICS EXAM STAM SAMPLE QUESTIONS Questions 1-307 have been taken from the previous set of Exam C sample questions. Questions no longer relevant to the syllabus have been deleted. Questions 308-326 are based on material newly added. April 2018 update: Question 303 has been deleted. Corrections were made to several of the new questions, 308-326. December 2018 update: Corrections were made to questions 322, 323, and 325. Questions 327 and 328 were added. Some of the questions in this study note are taken from past examinations. The weight of topics in these sample questions is not representative of the weight of topics on the exam. The syllabus indicates the exam weights by topic. Copyright 2018 by the Society of Actuaries PRINTED IN U.S.A. STAM-09-18 - 1 - 1. DELETED 2. You are given: (i) The number of claims has a Poisson distribution. (ii) Claim sizes have a Pareto distribution with parameters θ=0.5 and α=6 (iii) The number of claims and claim sizes are independent. (iv) The observed pure premium should be within 2% of the expected pure premium 90% of the time. Calculate the expected number of claims needed for full credibility. (A) Less than 7,000 (B) At least 7,000, but less than 10,000 (C) At least 10,000, but less than 13,000 (D) At least 13,000, but less than 16,000 (E) At least 16,000 3. DELETED STAM-09-18 - 2 - 4. You are given: (i) Losses follow a single-parameter Pareto distribution with density function: α f(x)= , x>1, 0<α<∞ xα+1 (ii) A random sample of size five produced three losses with values 3, 6 and 14, and two losses exceeding 25. Calculate the maximum likelihood estimate of α. (A) 0.25 (B) 0.30 (C) 0.34 (D) 0.38 (E) 0.42 5. You are given: (i) The annual number of claims for a policyholder has a binomial distribution with probability function: 2 p(x|q)= qx(1−q)2−x, x=0,1,2 x (ii) The prior distribution is: π(q)=4q3, 0<q<1 This policyholder had one claim in each of Years 1 and 2. Calculate the Bayesian estimate of the number of claims in Year 3. (A) Less than 1.1 (B) At least 1.1, but less than 1.3 (C) At least 1.3, but less than 1.5 (D) At least 1.5, but less than 1.7 (E) At least 1.7 STAM-09-18 - 3 - 6. DELETED 7. DELETED 8. You are given: (i) Claim counts follow a Poisson distribution with mean θ. (ii) Claim sizes follow an exponential distribution with mean 10θ. (iii) Claim counts and claim sizes are independent, given θ. (iv) The prior distribution has probability density function: 5 π(θ)= , θ>1 θ6 Calculate Bühlmann’s k for aggregate losses. (A) Less than 1 (B) At least 1, but less than 2 (C) At least 2, but less than 3 (D) At least 3, but less than 4 (E) At least 4 9. DELETED 10. DELETED STAM-09-18 - 4 - 11. You are given: (i) Losses on a company’s insurance policies follow a Pareto distribution with probability density function: θ f(x|θ)= , 0< x<∞ (x+θ)2 (ii) For half of the company’s policies θ=1, while for the other half θ=3. For a randomly selected policy, losses in Year 1 were 5. Calculate the posterior probability that losses for this policy in Year 2 will exceed 8. (A) 0.11 (B) 0.15 (C) 0.19 (D) 0.21 (E) 0.27 12. You are given total claims for two policyholders: Year Policyholder 1 2 3 4 X 730 800 650 700 Y 655 650 625 750 Using the nonparametric empirical Bayes method, calculate the Bühlmann credibility premium for Policyholder Y. (A) 655 (B) 670 (C) 687 (D) 703 (E) 719 STAM-09-18 - 5 - 13. A particular line of business has three types of claim. The historical probability and the number of claims for each type in the current year are: Historical Number of Claims Type Probability in Current Year X 0.2744 112 Y 0.3512 180 Z 0.3744 138 You test the null hypothesis that the probability of each type of claim in the current year is the same as the historical probability. Calculate the chi-square goodness-of-fit test statistic. (A) Less than 9 (B) At least 9, but less than 10 (C) At least 10, but less than 11 (D) At least 11, but less than 12 (E) At least 12 14. The information associated with the maximum likelihood estimator of a parameter θ is 4n, where n is the number of observations. Calculate the asymptotic variance of the maximum likelihood estimator of 2θ. (A) 1/(2n) (B) 1/n (C) 4/n (D) 8n (E) 16n STAM-09-18 - 6 - 15. You are given: (i) The probability that an insured will have at least one loss during any year is p. (ii) The prior distribution for p is uniform on [0, 0.5]. (iii) An insured is observed for 8 years and has at least one loss every year. Calculate the posterior probability that the insured will have at least one loss during Year 9. (A) 0.450 (B) 0.475 (C) 0.500 (D) 0.550 (E) 0.625 16. DELETED 17. DELETED STAM-09-18 - 7 - 18. You are given: (i) Two risks have the following severity distributions: Probability of Claim Probability of Claim Amount of Claim Amount for Risk 1 Amount for Risk 2 250 0.5 0.7 2,500 0.3 0.2 60,000 0.2 0.1 (ii) Risk 1 is twice as likely to be observed as Risk 2. A claim of 250 is observed. Calculate the Bühlmann credibility estimate of the second claim amount from the same risk. (A) Less than 10,200 (B) At least 10,200, but less than 10,400 (C) At least 10,400, but less than 10,600 (D) At least 10,600, but less than 10,800 (E) At least 10,800 19. DELETED 20. DELETED STAM-09-18 - 8 - 21. You are given: (i) The number of claims incurred in a month by any insured has a Poisson distribution with mean λ. (ii) The claim frequencies of different insureds are independent. (iii) The prior distribution is gamma with probability density function: (100λ)6e−100λ f(λ)= 120λ (iv) Month Number of Insureds Number of Claims 1 100 6 2 150 8 3 200 11 4 300 ? Calculate the Bühlmann-Straub credibility estimate of the number of claims in Month 4. (A) 16.7 (B) 16.9 (C) 17.3 (D) 17.6 (E) 18.0 STAM-09-18 - 9 - 22. You fit a Pareto distribution to a sample of 200 claim amounts and use the likelihood ratio test to test the hypothesis that α=1.5 and θ=7.8. You are given: (i) The maximum likelihood estimates are αˆ =1.4 and θˆ=7.6. (ii) The natural logarithm of the likelihood function evaluated at the maximum likelihood estimates is −817.92. (iii) ∑ln(x +7.8)=607.64 i Determine the result of the test. (A) Reject at the 0.005 significance level. (B) Reject at the 0.010 significance level, but not at the 0.005 level. (C) Reject at the 0.025 significance level, but not at the 0.010 level. (D) Reject at the 0.050 significance level, but not at the 0.025 level. (E) Do not reject at the 0.050 significance level. STAM-09-18 - 10 -