SOCIETY OF ACTUARIES Advanced Portfolio Management Exam APM MORNING SESSION Date: Friday, April 29, 2011 Time: 8:30 a.m. – 11:45 a.m. INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES General Instructions Written-Answer Instructions 1. This examination has a total of 120 points. It consists 1. Write your candidate number at the top of each sheet. of a morning session (worth 60 points) and an afternoon Your name must not appear. session (worth 60 points). 2. Write on only one side of a sheet. Start each question a) The morning session consists of 11 questions on a fresh sheet. On each sheet, write the number of numbered 1 through 11. the question that you are answering. Do not answer more than one question on a single sheet. b) The afternoon session consists of 8 questions numbered 12 through 19. 3. The answer should be confined to the question as set. The points for each question are indicated at the 4. When you are asked to calculate, show all your work beginning of the question. Questions 1 through 6 including any applicable formulas. pertain to the Case Study, which is enclosed inside the front cover of this exam booklet. 5. When you finish, insert all your written-answer sheets into the Essay Answer Envelope. Be sure to hand in all 2. Failure to stop writing after time is called will result in your answer sheets since they cannot be accepted later. the disqualification of your answers or further Seal the envelope and write your candidate number in disciplinary action. the space provided on the outside of the envelope. Check the appropriate box to indicate morning or 3. While every attempt is made to avoid defective afternoon session for Exam APM. questions, sometimes they do occur. If you believe a question is defective, the supervisor or proctor cannot 6. Be sure your written-answer envelope is signed because give you any guidance beyond the instructions on the if it is not, your examination will not be graded. exam booklet. Tournez le cahier d’examen pour la version fran aise. ç © 2011 by the Society of Actuaries Printed in the U.S.A. 475 N. Martingale Road Exam APM-Front Cover Schaumburg, IL 60173-2226 CASE STUDY INSTRUCTIONS The case study will be used as a basis for some examination questions. Be sure to answer the question asked by referring to the case study. For example, when asked for advantages of a particular plan design to a company referenced in the case study, your response should be limited to that company. Other advantages should not be listed, as they are extraneous to the question and will result in no additional credit. Further, if they conflict with the applicable advantages, no credit will be given. **BEGINNING OF EXAMINATION** Morning Session Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 1. (6 points) Wonka Life is offering a universal life product that has an account value with a credited rate based on Wonka’s portfolio rate, subject to a guaranteed minimum of 4% per year. The product has a decreasing surrender charge which is deducted from the account value if the policy is surrendered. (a) (2 points) Evaluate the current investment strategy for the universal life product with respect to interest rate risk. (b) (2 points) Describe the advantages and disadvantages of using callable corporate bonds to back this block of business. (c) (2 points) Recommend an investment strategy to better manage Wonka’s exposure to interest rate risk for the universal life product and justify your recommendation. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 1 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 2. (7 points) (a) (1 point) Describe considerations when calculating the effective duration for a portfolio of non-callable corporate bonds. (b) (1.5 points) Describe how the effective duration of Wonka’s Universal Life product will be affected by a decrease in interest rates. (c) (0.5 points) Describe the risks of investing in agency mortgage pass-throughs to back Wonka Life’s UL products. (d) (2 points) Calculate the effect of issuing $2 billion in new insurance liabilities on Wonka Life’s surplus duration. Assume any new business written and assets invested will have the same effective durations as the existing business and investments, respectively, and that new sales have no surplus strain. (e) (1 point) Recommend a method for managing the surplus duration back to within guidelines. (f) (1 point) Explain whether it is possible to manage the asset duration to achieve a zero surplus duration. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 2 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 3. (5 points) Wonka is considering an investment in a private equity fund. (a) (1 point) Describe vintage year considerations and why they might be important with respect to evaluating performance of this type of investment. (b) (2 points) Describe the general characteristics of this type of investment with regard to each of the following criteria: (i) Time horizon (ii) Liquidity (iii) Leverage (c) (2 points) Evaluate the suitability of a private equity investment for Wonka’s surplus account. Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 4. (4 points) You have been retained by Wonka Life to perform a review of how the Company’s committees conducted business in 2009. (a) (1 point) Identify behavioral biases and factors that may lead Wonka’s committees to less than fully rational financial decisions. (b) (1 point) Identify potential fiduciary liability issues. (c) (2 points) Recommend appropriate changes for 2010. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 3 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 5. (7 points) (a) (2 points) The Byrd Ratings & Analysis report has defined the Liquidity Ratio to be liquid assets / projected demand liability. (i) Define demand liabilities. (ii) Describe how the demand liability will be measured for the following Wonka lines of business: 1. Term Certain Annuity 2. Universal Life 3. Group Life and Health The head of Annuity Products, Sam Roach, argues Wonka’s block of accumulation annuities does not pose significant liquidity risk. (b) (2 points) Critique Roach’s assertion based on the information in their Quarterly Product Report. (c) (3 points) Critique the former CFO’s proposed liquidity management framework. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 4 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session Questions 1- 6 pertain to the Case Study Each question should be answered independently. 6. (5 points) Recommend risk reduction strategies that would help Wonka Life in managing the following risks of their Employees’ Pension Plan, and justify your recommendations. (i) Longevity Risk (ii) Inflation Risk (iii) Liquidity Risk (iv) Currency Risk (v) Pension Funding Risk 7. (4 points) Your company has three investment portfolios. Your company’s guideline on single company exposure mandates that credit risk exposure to a single issuer within a portfolio be limited. The managers of the three portfolios are reviewing alternative ways of managing issuer-specific risk. Portfolio/Manager A B C Portfolio Size Large Small Small Credit Research Ability Weak Strong Strong Transaction Cost Efficiency Efficient Not Efficient Not Efficient Complies with Guideline on Yes Yes No Single-Company Exposure (a) (1 point) Explain how the manager of Portfolio C can use credit default swaps (CDS) to manage single issuer risk, while providing a similar cash flow pattern and achieving the original target total return. (b) (3 points) Recommend approaches to manage issuer-specific risk other than using CDS to the managers of Portfolio A and B. Justify your recommendations. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 5 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session 8. (5 points) You are a commodity trader for a large financial institution. You observe the following: • The spot price of Brent crude oil is $74.60 per barrel • The spot price of copper is $3.50 per pound • The price of futures on Brent crude oil and copper Futures Price on Brent Futures Price on Contract Crude Oil (per barrel) Copper (per pound) July, 2011 74.90 3.50 August, 2011 76.00 3.49 September, 2011 77.30 3.49 October, 2011 78.30 3.48 November, 2011 79.00 3.48 December, 2011 79.70 3.47 January, 2012 80.20 3.45 January, 2013 83.70 3.41 January, 2014 85.40 3.35 (a) (2 points) Describe the economic drivers of return for long-only commodity indexation. (b) (1 point) Describe the market conditions in which futures for Brent crude oil and copper are currently trading. (c) (2 points) You currently own a July 2011 contract. You believe strongly that the spot prices of copper will remain at $3.50 over the next four years. Describe a strategy that would yield a profit for a long-only investor if this price were realized. Exam APM – Spring 2011 - 6 - GO ONTO NEXT PAGE Advanced Portfolio Management Morning Session