Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 Framework Contract for Evaluation in the Field of Energy and Transport (TREN1-009) Final report Client: European Commission, DG TREN ECORYS Transport Rotterdam, 30 December 2005 ECORYS Nederland BV P.O. Box 4175 3006 AD Rotterdam Watermanweg 44 3067 GG Rotterdam The Netherlands T +31 (0)10 453 88 00 F +31 (0)10 453 07 68 E [email protected] W www.ecorys.com Registration no. 24316726 ECORYS Transport T +31 (0)10 453 87 59 F +31 (0)10 452 36 80 Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the 2 MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 Table of contents Preface 6 Executive summary 7 1 Introduction 19 1.1 Background 19 1.2 Objective of the ex ante evaluation of ITS deployment programme 19 1.3 Definitions and focus of a new ITS deployment programme 20 1.4 Setting the scene of ITS 20 2 Problem analysis and needs assessment 23 2.1 Introduction 23 2.2 Transport sector problem areas 23 2.2.1 Background 23 2.2.2 Key problems 24 2.3 How ITS can contribute to an efficient and sustainable transport system 27 2.4 Problems with ITS deployment 27 2.5 Factor analysis 30 2.6 Role of DG TREN 31 2.7 Key actors and their needs 32 3 Objectives and indicators 35 3.1 Objectives of a possible new ITS Deployment Programme 35 3.2 Indicators and target levels 36 4 Alternative delivery mechanisms 39 4.1 Introduction 39 4.2 Towards a new ITS Deployment programme 39 4.3 Towards seven intervention strategies 41 4.4 A first assessment of the intervention strategies 46 4.4.1 Continue or not ? 47 4.4.2 How to continue ? 48 4.4.3 Summary of the first evaluation of the different strategies 50 4.5 Instruments, channels and levels of intervention 51 4.5.1 Instruments 51 4.5.2 Channels of intervention 52 4.5.3 Level of intervention 54 4.6 Summary and conclusions 55 Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 3 5 Lessons learned 58 5.1 Introduction 58 5.2 Findings from the current ITS deployment programme 58 5.3 Other DG TREN Programmes 59 5.4 Programmes other DGs 60 5.5 Interview findings 61 5.6 Other lessons learnt 63 6 European added value 65 6.1 Complementary to and coherence with other programmes at EU level 65 6.2 Complementary to and coherence with national initiatives 66 7 Future options and budget calculations 69 8 Impact assessment and results 76 8.1 A qualitative elaboration on the impacts of ITS deployment 77 8.2 A quantitative elaboration on the impacts of ITS deployment 79 8.3 Impacts of ITS deployment on the specific objectives 93 8.3.1 Impact of ITS deployment 93 8.3.2 Impact of ITS harmonisation 98 8.4 Assessment of three intervention strategies 98 8.5 Conclusions on impact assessment 99 9 Cost effectiveness of the options 101 9.1 Effectiveness of ITS deployment 101 9.2 Cost-effectiveness of intervention strategies 102 9.3 Cost-effectiveness compared to other programmes 103 9.4 Conclusions on cost-effectiveness 104 10 Programme management and future monitoring and evaluation 106 10.1 Introduction 106 10.2 Programme management and structure 106 10.2.1 Human resources 106 10.2.2 Maintain the Euro-Regional Project character 107 10.2.3 Member State and stakeholder representation 109 10.2.4 From technology driven to user driven 111 10.2.5 Programme structure 111 10.3 Monitoring 113 10.4 Evaluation of impacts 115 10.5 Programme and Project evaluation 116 11 Conclusions and recommendations 118 11.1 Main conclusions 118 11.2 Recommendations 120 Annex A Stakeholders’ consultation 124 Annex B Logical Framework Matrix 149 Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the 4 MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 5 Preface The study was conducted by a team of experts led by ECORYS on behalf of DG TREN, Unit Satellite Navigation Systems and Intelligent Transport (B5). The assignment has been carried out under a Framework Contract for Evaluation in the Field of Energy and Transport in the period July – December 2005. The evaluation addresses the essential issue whether there is a need to continue the EU involvement in the deployment of quality network management, using intelligent transport services, and if so, to assess the most appropriate format for such continuation. We would like to express our gratitude to all people who have shared their valuable insight with us on the matter. The evaluation has been carried out by an independent evaluation team. It should be noted that this report represents the views of the consultant, which do not necessarily coincide with those of the Commission. The core study team consisted of: ECORYS Mr. Wim Spit Mr. Gerwin Zomer Mr. Dick Mans Diepens & Okkema Mr. Ronald Jorna Herry Consult Dr. Max Herry Connekt Mr. Paul Potters Rotterdam, 31 December 2005. Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the 6 MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 Executive summary The study objective of this ex-ante evaluation Between 2001 and 2006 the Directorate General for Energy and Transport has financed studies and deployment of Intelligent Transport Services (ITS) on the Trans European Road Network, in the targeted programme for transport TEMPO. This programme is a targeted part of the TEN-T Multi annual Indicative Programme (MIP)1. The main objective of TEMPO is to enhance the service quality on the road network through a number of interlinked multinational Euro-Regional Projects. These projects cover all EU15 Member States except Greece. The need now is to assess whether there is a need to continue the EU involvement in the deployment of quality network management, using intelligent transport services, and if so, to assess the most appropriate format for such continuation. Through a dedicated Framework Contract on Impact Assessment and Ex ante Evaluations, DG TREN has approached the consortium led by ECORYS to carry out the ex ante evaluation for a possible new programme for deployment of ITS. ITS is seen as an effective tool in fighting congestion, increasing road safety and reducing the environmental impacts of transport. In this way, it indirectly contributes to the three main European Transport Policy objectives: • Since ITS is effective in increasing the average speed in highly congested areas, it contributes to the economic competitiveness of Europe. • Since ITS is also effective in reducing the number of accidents on the road network, it contributes to the (transport) safety of European citizens. • And since congestion has a negative environmental impact due to the high energy consumption, ITS also contributes to a sustainable environment. Problems in the ITS domain A series of problems in the ITS domain has resulted in a too slow deployment and in not reaping the full potential benefits that could be realised without these problems. These problems are: • Lack of interoperability of ITS; Harmonisation and standardisation is needed to improve interoperability at national and European level. • Huge initial investments required; The initial investments for ITS can be considerable, while the society groups that experience the benefits (i.e. road users) are often not the ones that have to bear the investment costs. 1 Commission Decision C(2654) September 2001 Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 7 • Lack of knowledge on the impacts of ITS; There is insufficient knowledge among decision makers on the impact of ITS on congestion reduction, on safety improvement and on the environmental (emissions and noise). As a consequence, the political priority and the willingness to invest in ITS is low. • Lack of clarity in ITS deployment objectives; Contrary to the objectives stated in the White Paper (road victims halved in 2010, increase in passenger rail transport from 6 to 10% in 2020, creation of a Single Sky by 2004), these clear objectives are currently lacking for ITS deployment. • Lack of coherence between ITS deployment at European, national, regional and local level; Despite the establishment of national ITS organisations in several European countries and the co-ordinating role of ERTICO in ITS Research and Deployment between public and private partners, an overall vision and strategy towards an integrated ITS deployment across all levels is presently not available. • Lack of economies of scale; In some cases ITS is implemented at a too small scale to realise the full potential of the technology. Large scale and integrated applications could result in economies of scale thereby reducing the investment costs, which is an additional argument for standardisation and harmonisation. • Many actors involved with different jurisdictions; In many cases deployment of ITS is not only a technical issue, but an organisational issue as well, which requires a lot of time. This is the case for the development of traffic management plans, electronic fee collection, or multimodal traveller information, in which several different actors are involved. • Role of the private market and lack of understanding the complementarities; It is not clear for the policy makers in ITS what the ultimate role of the private sector could be in traveller information services both with respect to data collection (e.g. via the GSM networks or floating car data) and data distribution (e.g. subscription based tailor-made services), emergency services, etc. In this respect, the availability of sound business is still limited, but is expected to be deployed on a wider scale the coming years. • Weak link with multimodality; Current ITS deployment is very focused on road users, and, moreover, infrastructure driven. A user oriented approach would require an opposite approach; the user is often interested in the most suitable mobility option for his specific mobility needs. A most suitable mobility option might very well also include other modes than road transport. The roles of different actors involved in ITS Deployment Until now, deployment of ITS has mainly been a role of National Road Administrations (NRAs) or highway concessionaires. Road administrations have often initially introduced ITS to solve single problems such as safety black-spots or congestion. Later on it has become clear that the many (congestion) problems are not just local problems and need a network approach. However, there is still a patchwork of fragmented regional and national ITS services, rather than a homogeneous network or market. For the European transport user, the network does not stop at the border of the network of a single NRA or concessionaire. Border crossing transport becomes more and more important in Europe. It is therefore important that NRAs and concessionaires collaborate in order to serve the European road user in the best possible way. Due to national priorities and conflicting interest, this collaboration requires strong co-operation and a clear vision on how all Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the 8 MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 Member States and their citizens would benefit from a harmonised ITS approach. Present organisations like the CEDR do not have the financial resources to realise this and lack international legislation tools. A situation as with road pricing, where different countries develop and deploy their own (non-compatible) systems, should be avoided in other domains. Private sector is not directly involved in the current ITS Deployment Programme, but mainly as supplier of systems and services. However, the development of personalised traveller information services by private organisations is moving into the direction that more sound business cases for these kinds of services will be translated into effective business models in the near future. Also in the collection of monitoring data, Telecom organisations are taking strategic positions in collecting floating car data. The role of the EC in ITS Deployment Deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems and Services fits well into the European policy objectives. Main European policy objectives are the implementation and development of the Internal Market and the re-enforcing of economic and social cohesion. In the achievement of these objectives the construction of the trans-European transport network is a major element. This development requires the interconnection and interoperability of well functioning national networks, as well as the access to them. ITS helps these networks to function in an efficient way. By fighting congestion, increasing road safety and reducing the environmental impacts of transport, ITS indirectly contributes to the three main European Transport Policy objectives. Moreover, ITS does not only have an impact on congestion, but thereby also on road safety and reduction of the environmental impacts of transport. In doing so, ITS directly and indirectly contributes to achievement of the European Transport Policy objective of an efficient and sustainable transport system. Last but not least ITS allows policies to be effective and efficient. For example, ITS can be used to implement a pricing policy, where users of infrastructure pay a fair price for internal and external costs. ITS helps to improve road safety by intelligent speed control, thus contributing to a reduction of the number of casualties and severely injured. Ultimately ITS is seen as a tool to match demand for transport (traffic) with supply (infrastructure) by dynamically allocating capacity to vehicles and by supporting demand constraint policies (setting the appropriate levels of pricing, access, etc). There are therefore four reasons that point at a role for the Commission in ITS deployment: • Ensuring interoperability of ITS systems across the EU, thereby stimulating the TEN- T development and uninterrupted movement of goods and persons. • Stimulating standardisation of the ITS networks, resulting in lower total transport costs and thus higher efficiency of the transport system. • Integrating the management of the various national road networks into one European network, thus allowing a true optimisation of the network in stead of sub-optimisation per country. Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006 9 • Deployment of ITS helps to bring forward the policy objective of efficient and sustainable transport system, thereby increasing the competitiveness of Europe. ITS also allows transport policies to be effective and efficient. Several lessons can be learned from the current ITS Deployment Programme Some lessons that can be learned from the current ITS Deployment Programme correspond with the problems identified in the ITS domain, like the lack of common vision & strategy for ITS deployment, the inability to clearly show the benefits of ITS, and the priority given to ITS. Other important lessons learned from the current programme are: • Programme structure. One of the strong points of the current TEMPO programme is the geographic spread of the programme into Euro-Regional Projects (ERPs). The ERPs provide the opportunity for close co-operation with neighbouring regions, which are often confronted by similar problems. However, some issues (e.g. strategic issues, harmonisation issues) and projects (e.g. LDC, pilot projects aimed at knowledge transfer) require a pan-ERP approach. • Monitoring and evaluation. Control mechanisms are not functioning effectively in monitoring the progress of ITS deployment. Also clear target levels are missing. If deployment is lacking behind the reasons for this cannot be addressed, which hinders the taking of corrective actions to resolve this. • Project and programme management. Most time of EC resources in the current TEMPO programme is allocated to administrative tasks, and insufficient time is available for technical guidance of the projects. The yearly Decision process is too slow. Though reporting guidelines and templates already exist in the current MIP, not all participants stick to the reporting guidelines or comply to the templates. • Programme participants and their orientation. The type and number of partners in the current TEMPO programme is considered to be right. Practically all road authorities are present. However, most involved ITS experts have a technical background. As a consequence, the programme is very technology driven, while ITS deployment remains a tool helping to solve policy objectives. The focus on these policy objectives, and the impact of ITS deployment on realising these objectives is underexposed. • Dissemination and marketing. Several stakeholders involved in ITS from different stakeholders (e.g. people interviewed from DG INFSO, national (road) transport politicians, ITS service providers, transport system researchers and transport consultants) were not familiar with the TEMPO Programme for ITS Deployment. Apart from the project results, which are mainly marketed among the involved ITS experts, also the ITS Deployment Programme itself can be better marketed. Continuation of TEMPO? The role of the EU is presently being reconsidered. The reason for this is a possible new ITS Deployment Programme for the period 2007-2013. The present report gives an ex ante evaluation of such a new programme. Three different levels of objectives can be distinguished for a possible new ITS Deployment Programme. The general objective is to contribute to an efficient and Ex ante Evaluation of the deployment programme for Intelligent Transport Services (2007-2013) following the 10 MIP TEMPO programme 2001-2006