Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries i Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries ii Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries iii Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries CONTENTS Acknowledgements Acronyms Preface PART I Welcome Address Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin 1 Opening Remarks Kristof W. Duwaerts 3 Inaugural Address Abdul Qadir Baloch 4 Concluding Address Lt General (R) Nasir Janjua 6 Concluding Remarks Kristof W. Duwaerts 10 Vote of Thanks Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin 11 Conference Recommendations 12 PART II An Overview of Afghanistan’s Situation 1. Conceptualisation of Peace: Framework for Political Reconciliation in Afghanistan Rahimullah Yusufzai 16 2. Socio-Economic Problems of Afghanistan: Minimising the Human Cost of War Haroun Mir 25 3. Security in Afghanistan: Challenges and Solutions Dr Abdulbaqi Amin 40 iv Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries South Asia’s Security Concerns in Afghanistan 4. Significance of Stability in Afghanistan for Pakistan Khalid Aziz 56 5. Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process: Progress and Prospects Farhana Asif 65 Role of States Assisting Peace in Afghanistan 6. The Afghanisation Challenge: U.S. Troop Withdrawal and the Stability of Afghanistan Dr Vanda Felbab-Brown 76 7. Cooperation between China and Pakistan on the Afghan Issue Dr Wang Xu 103 8. Russia’s Interests and Potential to Contribute towards Peace and Reconciliation in Afghanistan Dr Petr Topychkanov 110 Transnational Security Problems & Neighbouring Regions 9. Stakes and Role of Saudi Arabia in Afghanistan Dr Zubair Iqbal 118 10. Multi-Faceted Linkages between Afghanistan and Central Asian States Orhan Gafarlı 127 Annexure 1: Conference Speakers’ Biographies 143 Annexure 2: IPRI Publications 146 v Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries Acknowledgements This book is based on the papers presented at the two-day international Conference on ‗Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries‘ organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) in collaboration with Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), Islamabad, on May 18-19, 2016 at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. IPRI is especially thankful to Mr Kristof Duwaerts, Resident Representative, HSF, Islamabad, for his cooperation and sharing the financial expenses of the Conference. For the papers presented in this book, we are grateful to all the authors who updated and submitted their manuscripts promptly; as well as chairpersons of the different sessions, including Ambassador (R) Aziz A. Khan - Former High Commissioner of Pakistan to Afghanistan and India; Major General Noel Israel Khokar, HI (M) - Director General, Institute for Strategic Studies Research and Analysis (ISSRA), National Defence University, Pakistan; Mr Aizaz A. Chaudhry - Foreign Secretary of Pakistan; and Lt. General (R) Asif Yasin Malik, HI (M) - Former Secretary of Defence. Conference speakers who were unable to provide manuscripts, but whose views were critical to the Conference include Dr Mujeeb Afzal, Assistant Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-e- Azam University, Pakistan; Ms Farhana Asif, Director, (Afghanistan), Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Government of Pakistan; and Mr Mohsen Roohi-sefat, Director South and West Asia Studies, Institute for Political and International Studies, Iran. We are also thankful to the scholars and students who participated in the Conference, as well as the print and electronic media for providing this event coverage. The successful completion of the Conference owes much to the efforts and logistical support provided by the IPRI staff, including the stage secretary Ms Aymen Ijaz. Finally, our gratitude goes to all those whom it would not be possible to thank individually for their help in making the Conference a success. vi Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries vii Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries Acronyms ADB Asian Development Bank AKDN Aga Khan Development Network ALP Local Afghan Police ANA Afghan National Army ANP Afghan National Police ANUG Afghan National Unity Government ANSF Afghan National Security Forces AQ Al-Qaeda CAREC Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation CASA 1000 Central Asia South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Project CASAREM Central Asia – South Asia Regional Electricity Market CBMs Confidence Building Measures CBD Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue CIS Commonwealth of Independent States CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor CPI Corruption Perception Index CSTO Collective Security Treaty Organization ECO Economic Cooperation Organization EEU Eurasian Economic Union FATA Federally Administered Tribal Area GDP Gross Domestic Product HeI Hizb-e-Islami HPC High Peace Council HoA-IP Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process IS Islamic State ISAF International Security Assistance Force ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ISIS Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (Syria) ISR Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance KPK Khyber-Pahkhtunkhwa LDC Least Developed Countries MoFA Ministry of Foreign Affairs viii Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries NA Northern Alliance NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NDS National Directorate of Security OIC Organization of Islamic Cooperation OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe OBOR One Belt and One Road OZA Operation Zarb-e-Azb PDPA People‘s Democratic Party of Afghanistan SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFRON State and Frontier Regions SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SIGAR Special Inspector General for the Afghan Reconstruction SOFA Status-of-Forces Agreement TI Transparency International QCG Quadrilateral Coordination Group UNAMA United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan UNSCR United Nations Security Council Resolution ix Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries Preface Ambassador (R) Sohail Amin, Sobia Paracha and Asiya Mahar T his book is based on the papers presented at the two-day international Conference on ‗Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Role of Major Powers and Regional Countries‘ organised by the Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) in collaboration with Hanns Seidel Foundation (HSF), Islamabad, on May 18-19, 2016 at Serena Hotel, Islamabad. The Conference, comprised of four working sessions in addition to inaugural and concluding sessions, helped in initiating a timely and informed debate on the subject and suggested plausible recommendations for policy-makers. The UN Security Council Resolution 1368 unanimously adopted on September 12, 2001 condemned the September 11 attacks on the United States and called on ‗all countries to cooperate in bringing the perpetrators, organisers and sponsors of the attacks to justice and that those responsible for supporting or harbouring the perpetrators, organisers and sponsors would be held accountable.‘ The International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) was established in 2001 for this purpose and Pakistan assisted this force by providing land and air passage. Later, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) took over the command of ISAF and Pakistan was also declared a major Non-NATO ally by the Bush Administration. In the process of the U.S.-led War against Terror, Pakistan rendered huge sacrifices in terms of human casualties and economic losses. According to report titled ‗War Related Death, Injury, and Displacement in Afghanistan and Pakistan 2001-2014‘ issued by the Costs of War Project at Brown University‘s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, at least 21,500 civilians were killed in Pakistan between 2001 and 2014. Pakistan has also suffered a total loss of U.S. $107 billion during these last fourteen years as a result of the war, with U.S.$4.53 billion loss in the outgoing fiscal year, according to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2014-15. President Bush had declared that the U.S. had strategic interests and a moral responsibility towards a stable and secure Afghanistan. Later, as a part of the U.S. counterterrorism strategy, President Obama came up with a more pragmatic and limited mission for Afghanistan i.e. ‗to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat Al-Qaeda and its safe havens in the border regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.‘ Now, Osama Bin Laden is dead and the Aymen al-Zawahiri-led international jihad (holy war) of Al-Qaeda has been considerably weakened in Afghanistan and they have shifted their focus towards the Middle East. x