European Union Foreign Affairs Journal eQuarterly for European Foreign, Foreign Trade, Development, Security Policy, EU-Third Country Relations and Regional Integration (EUFAJ) N° 04– 2016 ISSN 2190-6122 Contents Editorial ........................................................................................................................................................ 5 Donald Tusk, EU Council President: “United we stand, divided we fall” ................................................. 6 Does the New US President Lack Legitimacy? Is He Europe's New “Enemy No. 1”? Does He Run the US like a Company? Hans-Jürgen Zahorka ........................................................................................................................................... 9 Donald Trump is declaring war on the world - The Globalism of the One Percent John Feffer .......................................................................................................................................................... 14 Evaluation of the EU-India Strategic Partnership and the potential for its revitalisation Gulshan Sachdeva............................................................................................................................................... 23 India: economic indicators and trade with EU ............................................................................................ 75 One Belt, One Road (OBOR): China's regional integration initiative Gisela Grieger .................................................................................................................................................... 78 Integrating the Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU): Constructing Great Eurasian Economic Partnership LI Xin .................................................................................................................................................................. 93 European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 1 Russia's deployment of nuclear-capable missiles in the Kaliningrad region: Implications of recent Russia- NATO confrontations on the Post-Soviet space Grisha Aghajanyan ........................................................................................................................................... 116 The European Union & the World Trade Organisation Susana Mendonça ............................................................................................................................................. 124 Human rights in EU trade policy - Unilateral measures Ionel Zamfir ...................................................................................................................................................... 130 EU Geographical Indications: Protection for non-agricultural products .................................................. 146 UfM Regional Forum of Barcelona from January 2017 ........................................................................... 150 What does it mean that society can be organic? Alec A. Schaerer ............................................................................................................................................... 154 Reviews ..................................................................................................................................................... 173 European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 2 European Union Foreign Affairs Journal (EUFAJ) eQuarterly for European Foreign, Foreign Trade, Development, Security Policy, EU-Third Country Relations and Regional Integration ISSN: 2190-6122 Published by: LIBERTAS – Europäisches Institut GmbH, Lindenweg 37, 72414 Rangendingen, Germany Phone: +49 7471 984996-0, fax +49 7471 984996-19, e-mail: [email protected] Managing Director: Hans-Jürgen Zahorka Registered: AG Stuttgart, HRB 243253, USt ID no.: DE811240129, Tax no.: 53 093 05327 Internet: www.eufaj.eu, www.libertas-institut.eu Subscription Rate: Free. All previous EUFAJ issues can be downloaded free of charge on www.eufaj.eu. Chief Editor: Hans-Jürgen Zahorka Editors: Ofelya Sargsyan (managing), Frederic Labarre Editorial Advisory Board: Židas Daskalovski, Ph.D., CRPM Skopje, professor of political science, University of Bitola, Macedonia Ioseb Kelenjeridze, Ph.D., professor, Dean of Legal, Humanities and Social Science Faculty, European University, Tbilisi, Georgia Catherine Maia, professor of law, University Porto, Portugal, and Dijon, France; Director of MULTIPOL, Geneva Pierre Menguy, president of Maison de l’Europe de la Seine, Le Havre/France, Member of Team Europe France Sergey Metelev, professor of economy, Russian State University of Economy, Omsk, Russia Saulius Nefas, professor of administrative science, Mykolos Romeros University, Vilnius/Lithuania Martin Pontzen, Dr. rer. pol., Bundesbank Director, German Federal Bank, Frankfurt/Main, Germany Viktor Yengibaryan, President of European Movement Armenia, Yerevan, Armenia Assistant Editors: Eka Meskhrikadze, Tbilisi, Georgia Meerim Oboskanova, Winnipeg, Canada (previously Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan) Tamara Vatsadze, Tbilisi, Georgia All authors are responsible for their published texts. If no author is mentioned, the Chief Editor is responsible. All texts published under a name do not necessarily represent the view of the editors or Advisory Board members. EUFAJ is committed to European and international integration and to pluralism, different views and a public discussion. Copyright: Copyright requests are welcome. Reprints of certain contributions are free of charge, for others a license fee may have to be negotiated. Please ask the publisher by e-mail for copyright permission. Example for quotation: EUFAJ [or: European Union Foreign Affairs Journal] 1-2015, then number of page (e.g. EUFAJ, 1-2015, 32). Papers, articles, reports, contributions: should be sent to the Chief Editor by e-mail and as attachment in Word. All contributions are requested in English language; abstracts in other languages are possible. EUFAJ is published in English. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 3 The EUFAJ Blog - between our issues, for topical announcements and new publications: http://libertasblogs.wordpress.com With contributions on UK, Scotland, Catalonia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine, the Eurasian Economic Union, Moldova, Georgia, Turkey, EU language policy, UN decolonialisation policy, Africa, the Caribbean, university cooperation, new books and their authors, the OSCE, the EU foreign and defence policy, Human Rights, the European Convention on Human Rights etc. The blog counts more than 19.500 views from about 150 countries. 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Then write “EUFAJ” or “European Union Foreign Affairs Journal” into the search box (if you have access to LinkedIn). Also here, news are regularly spread. Welcome on LinkedIn! European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 4 Editorial Dear readers, we are in a time when states must cooperate, must integrate, have to create new structures. When integration and being internationally interwoven is without doubt the most modern and adequate form of diplomacy in all sectors, we are, however, sliding back into the world of the 19th Century - with national states, nationalistic parties and politicians. Sometimes I have the impression to wake up “in the wrong movie”. As Brexit, the referendum-induced departure of Great Britain from the EU - may /with small m) it come or finally not - is an urgent issue, much to the detriment of the British people whose vote on 23.6.2016 is considered to be the absolute wisdom by the Theresa May Government, we have to assume that UK might in a couple of years be a third country to the rest of the EU. Therefore we will include from now this strange inner-British infight into our content. The Britain from the past gave us all a lot - from the Beatles, Carnaby Street, Inspector Barnaby, the old auntie BBC, the driving on the left, the pirate radios in the 1960s - in short: Modern Britain exercised a high impact in socialisation of the young generations, of cultural influence. But it is now resembling a country where one chicken does not really know what the other does (and chicken are e.g. ministers). And if we talk animals, Theresa May may be Trump's poodle now - a serious challenge for the Société de protection des animaux. If at the end a UK with a weakened economy, a younger generation which actively wants to belong to Europe, refuses to follow old dreams of colonialism - see the attempts to land with India, Australia New Zealand, and of course with Trump's United States - would not approve the package with the EU, either by Parliament or in another referendum, or both, then we can be happy to have made an interesting mistake in EUFAJ which normally looks mainly outwards of the EU. Maybe then there will be a reasonable conservative (with a small c) party, either re-europeanised or the result of a split-up.. With best regards, Hans-Jürgen Zahorka European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 5 Donald Tusk, EU Council President: “United we stand, divided we fall” A letter from 31.1.2017 heads of state or government on the future of the EU before the Malta summit Donald Tusk, President of the European Council “Dear colleagues, In order to best prepare our discussion in Malta about the future of the European Union of 27 member states, and in light of the conversations I have had with some of you, let me put forward a few reflections that I believe most of us share. The challenges currently facing the European Union are more dangerous than ever before in the time since the signature of the Treaty of Rome. Today we are dealing with three threats, which have previously not occurred, at least not on such a scale. The first threat, an external one, is related to the new geopolitical situation in the world and around Europe. An increasingly, let us call it, assertive China, especially on the seas, Russia's aggressive policy towards Ukraine and its neighbours, wars, terror and anarchy in the Middle East and in Africa, with radical Islam playing a major role, as well as worrying declarations by the new American administration all make our future highly unpredictable. For the first time in our history, in an increasingly multipolar external world, so many are becoming openly anti-European, or Eurosceptic at best. Particularly the change in Washington puts the European Union in a difficult situation; with the new administration seeming to put into question the last 70 years of American foreign policy. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 6 The second threat, an internal one, is connected with the rise in anti-EU, nationalist, increasingly xenophobic sentiment in the EU itself. National egoism is also becoming an attractive alternative to integration. In addition, centrifugal tendencies feed on mistakes made by those, for whom ideology and institutions have become more important than the interests and emotions of the people. The third threat is the state of mind of the pro-European elites. A decline of faith in political integration, submission to populist arguments as well as doubt in the fundamental values of liberal democracy are all increasingly visible. In a world full of tension and confrontation, what is needed is courage, determination and political solidarity of Europeans. Without them we will not survive. If we do not believe in ourselves, in the deeper purpose of integration, why should anyone else? In Rome we should renew this declaration of faith. In today's world of states-continents with hundreds of millions of inhabitants, European countries taken separately have little weight. But the EU has demographic and economic potential, which makes it a partner equal to the largest powers. For this reason, the most important signal that should come out of Rome is that of readiness of the 27 to be united. A signal that we not only must, but we want to be united. Let us show our European pride. If we pretend we cannot hear the words and we do not notice the decisions aimed against the EU and our future, people will stop treating Europe as their wider homeland. Equally dangerously, global partners will cease to respect us. Objectively speaking, there is no reason why Europe and its leaders should pander to external powers and their rulers. I know that in politics, the argument of dignity must not be overused, as it often leads to conflict and negative emotions. But today we must stand up very clearly for our dignity, the dignity of a united Europe - regardless of whether we are talking to Russia, China, the US or Turkey. Therefore, let us have the courage to be proud of our own achievements, which have made our continent the best place on Earth. Let us have the courage to oppose the rhetoric of demagogues, who claim that European integration is beneficial only to the elites, that ordinary people have only suffered as its result, and that countries will cope better on their own, rather than together. We must look to the future - this was your most frequent request in our consultations over the past months. And there is no doubt about it. But we should never, under any circumstances, forget about the most important reasons why 60 years ago we decided to unite Europe. We often hear the argument that the memory of the past tragedies of a divided Europe is no longer an argument, that new generations do not remember the sources of our inspiration. But amnesia does not invalidate these inspirations, nor does it relieve us of our duty to continuously recall the tragic lessons of a divided Europe. In Rome, we should strongly reiterate these two basic, yet forgotten, truths: firstly, we have united in order to avoid another historic catastrophe, and secondly, that the times of European unity have been the best times in all of Europe's centuries-long history. It must be made crystal clear that the disintegration of the European Union will not lead to the restoration of some mythical, full sovereignty of its member states, but to their real and factual dependence on the European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 7 great superpowers: the United States, Russia and China. Only together can we be fully independent. We must therefore take assertive and spectacular steps that would change the collective emotions and revive the aspiration to raise European integration to the next level. In order to do this, we must restore the sense of external and internal security as well as socio-economic welfare for European citizens. This requires a definitive reinforcement of the EU external borders; improved cooperation of services responsible for combating terrorism and protecting order and peace within the border-free area; an increase in defence spending; strengthening the foreign policy of the EU as a whole as well as better coordinating individual member states' foreign policies; and last but not least fostering investment, social inclusion, growth, employment, reaping the benefits of technological change and convergence in both the euro area and the whole of Europe. We should use the change in the trade strategy of the US to the EU's advantage by intensifying our talks with interested partners, while defending our interests at the same time. The European Union should not abandon its role as a trade superpower which is open to others, while protecting its own citizens and businesses, and remembering that free trade means fair trade. We should also firmly defend the international order based on the rule of law. We cannot surrender to those who want to weaken or invalidate the Transatlantic bond, without which global order and peace cannot survive. We should remind our American friends of their own motto: United we stand, divided we fall. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 8 Does the New US President Lack Legitimacy? Is He Europe's New “Enemy No. 1”? Does He Run the US like a Company? Hans-Jürgen Zahorka1 Donald J. Trump got approximately 3 million votes less than Hillary Clinton in the November 2016 election in the USA. The fact that he became President was caused only by an election law which is based on old federalist principles, with electors who are elected first and then meet to elect the US president. Unfortunately, the Republican majority in both houses was not able to modernise the election law, although ex-President Obama was in favour. A president who got 3 million votes less than his competitor has to be aware that he has to unite the people. At least this would be the case in Europe, and it was the case in the US. Until now. John Lewis was the leader of the legendary protest march on 7th March, 1965, in Selma/Alabama, for voting rights of the Afro-American US citizens, where police forces stabbed him almost to death. Now he serves as US Congressman, at the age of 76 years. He excused himself for being absent to the inauguration ceremony on 20.1.2017, as Trump has reached his presidency due to Russian hackers, he said. Well, this might have been the case, but this time it could not be clearly and publicly proven. So one could argue about this legitimacy issue. But another one remains: As mentioned, Trump lost the general election with approximate three million votes against Hillary Clinton who reached the first place. However, in American presidential elections this is possible as since a very long time the country has an election law where the president is not elected by the people directly but by electors who are elected according to state election laws, by the people. This can bring a dangerous gap between the number of voters nation-wide, and the number of electors on state level. It is a special reflection of federalism and of protection of smaller states within the US to do so, but there are many reform proposals in different pipelines. In US Government publications already in the 1970s (!) this problem has been dealt with, but nothing has been done so far. So, Trump has to be reminded always, that he got three million less votes than Hillary at his election. This also in view that his first speeches, decrees etc. were not fulfilling his promise at all, to be the president of all Americans - which is self-evident e.g. in Europe, but not anymore in the USA. For a president who was voted with 3 mill. voters less than the no. 2 in the elections, and 1 This article has been written until as of 28.01.2017. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 9 who won anyway but only due to the elector system due to be overhauled since a long time, but who does nothing to overcome the split in US society for which he was indeed responsible, incarnates a lack of legitimacy as President. Measured towards all former presidents in the 19th and 20st Century, he changed the parameters of a president who should represent a whole nation, and not only a part of this. What does the new president finally mean for the world, and is he Europe's new enemy no. 1? He promised and said incredible things in his campaign, which in a “normal” system would disappear when he comes to power. But now, in power, he acts as he says - what normally is good, if the things he says are reasonable. But now, he acts clearly in favour of protectionism and against the one-world principle: by scrapping the TPP trade agreement with the Pacific area unilaterally, by imposing a trade ban on Argentine lemons only few days after being in power, but in particular hitting on neighbouring Mexico. Mexico was first threatened with a border wall over the whole border distance (not only a part of the border with a fence), and to have to pay for it. If not directly, then with tariff increases for Mexican products - which as such seems against the standstill and rollback principles of the WTO. To build a wall in Europe against possible immigrants from neighbouring states is unthinkable; we have in the EU free circulation for all people, and this worked very well in the past, since the 1960s. And we have experience in walls, from Berlin. It is an extremely unfriendly position to the neighbours in Mexico which more than 100 years ago had a war with the US and are now reminded of this. Whoever wants to wrap himself in a wall, may do this, but to impose repeatedly the costs on the relevant neighbours, this is an aggressive exclusion policy, This goes in the same direction of what he thinks and says of the whole of Central and Latin America and in general of the Third World. Protectionism is not an economic principle to run a big economy, which by the way is very dependent of in- and outgoing trade. The following graph, from DER SPIEGEL Online 24.1.2017, shows, based on data of the US Ministry of Trade for the year 2015, trade flows of trade in goods with selected countries (in bn. US$). The US are the biggest economy of the world importing to and exporting from almost every country. In 2015 they sold and bought goods worth almost 3.800 billion Dollar. The trade balance is negative with 760 bn. US$. The new President estimates this as an injustice and wants to change it with all means. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal – N° 4 – 2016 www.eufaj.eu, [email protected] 10