`t NIST TECHNICAL NOTE 1773 Estimation of Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities: Application to New York City and Other Coastal Locations DongHun Yeo Ning Lin Emil Simiu NIST TECHNICAL NOTE 1773 Estimation of Hurricane Wind Speed Probabilities: Application to New York City and Other Coastal Locations DongHun Yeo Engineering Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8611 Ning Lin Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544 Emil Simiu Engineering Laboratory National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899-8611 October 2012 U.S. Department of Commerce Dr. Rebecca Blank, Acting Secretary National Institute of Standards and Technology Dr. Patrick D. Gallagher, Director Disclaimers (1) The policy of the NIST is to use the International System of Units in its technical communi- cations. In this document however, works of authors outside NIST are cited which describe measurements in certain non-SI units. Thus, it is more practical to include the non-SI unit meas- urements from these references. (2) Certain trade names or company products or procedures may be mentioned in the text to specify adequately the experimental procedure or equipment used. In no case does such identifi- cation imply recommendation or endorsement by the National Institute of Standards and Tech- nology, nor does it imply that the products or procedures are the best available for the purpose. Abstract This report presents a procedure for estimating parametric probabilistic models of hurricane wind speeds from existing information on estimated wind speeds with various mean recurrence inter- vals (MRIs). Such models may be needed, for example, for the estimation of hurricane wind speeds with long MRIs required for the performance-based design of structures susceptible of experiencing nonlinear behavior. The report first describes the procedure as applied to the case where that information is obtained from ASCE 7-10 wind maps, and provides examples of its application to a number of coastal mileposts on the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Next, the procedure is applied by using, in addition to the ASCE 7-10 information, hurricane wind speeds with 1,000,000- and 10,000,000-year MRIs estimated in a 2011 Nuclear Regulatory Commission re- port. It is then argued that ASCE 7-10 Standard basic wind speeds for New York City are uncon- servative with respect to their counterparts specified in the Standard for other U.S. hurricane- prone locations. Finally, best fitting extreme value distributions of hurricane wind speeds were found to have finite upper tails of the reverse Weibull type, rather than infinite upper tails of the Gumbel type. This result may help to change the still widely held belief that extreme wind speeds are appropriately modeled only by the Gumbel distribution. Keywords: Extreme values; hurricanes; New York City wind climate; risk consistency; wind engineering; wind speeds. iii Acknowledgements The authors are indebted to K. Emanuel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and to C. Landsea of the National Hurricane Center, for helpful discussions; to P.J. Vickery for providing estimates of hurricanes wind speeds for the locations indicated in the report; to N. A. Heckert of the Statistical Engineering Division, National Institute of Standards and Technology, for valuable statistical advice; and to F.T. Lombardo and M.L. Levitan for useful comments. iv Contents Abstract ..................................................................................................................... iii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................ iv List of Figures .................................................................................................................... vi List of Tables .................................................................................................................... vii 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................1 2. Procedure for Estimating Distributions of Hurricane Wind Speeds from Recent Information in the Public Domain .................................................................2 2.1 Estimation of Probability Distributions of Hurricane Wind Speeds from ASCE 7-10 Wind Speed Maps. .....................................................................2 2.2 Estimation of Probability Distributions of Hurricane Wind Speeds from ASCE 7-10 and NRC Wind Speed Maps. .....................................................7 2.3 Estimates of Probability Distributions of Hurricane Wind Speeds Obtained Directly from Results of Simulations. ...........................................................7 3. Estimates of Hurricane Wind Speeds Basic for New York City ................................9 4. Conclusions ...............................................................................................................11 References .....................................................................................................................12 v List of Figures Figure 1. Wind speed distributions of storms as a function of MRI (Boston, Ma.)……… 4 Figure 2. Wind speed distributions of storms as a function of MRI (Ocean City, Md.)…. 5 Figure 3. Wind speed distributions of storms as a function of MRI (Miami Beach, Fl.)… 5 Figure 4. Wind speed distributions of storms as a function of MRI (Biloxi, Ms.)…….…. 6 Figure 5. Wind speed distributions of storms as a function of MRI (Galveston, Tx.)….... 6 vi List of Tables Table 1. Reverse Weibull distribution parameters. ……………………………………………... 4 Table 2. Estimated hurricane wind speeds, in mph. …………………………………………….. 8 vii