What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Summary Richard Settersten and Barbara Ray examine the lengthening transition to adulthood over the past several decades, as well as the challenges the new schedule poses for young people, fami- lies, and society. The authors begin with a brief history of becoming an adult, noting that the schedule that youth follow to arrive at adulthood changes to meet the social realities of each era. For youth to leave home at an early age during the 1950s, for example, was “normal” because opportunities for work were plentiful and social expectations of the time reinforced the need to do so. But the prosperity that made it possible for young adults of that era to move quickly into adult roles did not last. The economic and employment uncertainties that arose during the 1970s complicated enormously the decisions that young adults had to make about living arrangements, educational investments, and family formation. The authors next take a closer look at changes in the core timing shifts in the new transition—the lengthening time it now takes youth to leave home, complete school, enter the workforce, marry, and have children. They stress that today’s new schedule for attaining independence leaves many families overburdened as they support their children for an extended period. The continued need to rely on families for financial assistance, the authors say, exacerbates the plight of young people from a variety of vulnerable backgrounds. It also raises complex questions about who is responsible for the welfare of young people and whether the risks and costs newly associated with the early adult years should be absorbed by markets, by families, or by governments. Settersten and Ray stress that the longer transition to adulthood strains not only families but also the institutions that have traditionally supported young Americans in making that transi- tion—such as residential colleges and universities, community colleges, military service, and national service programs. They emphasize the need to strengthen existing social institutions and create new ones to reflect more accurately the realities of a longer and more complex passage into adult life. www.futureofchildren.org Richard A. Settersten Jr. is a professor of human development and family sciences at Oregon State University. Barbara Ray is president of Hired Pen, inc. The authors wish to thank Jeylan Mortimer, the editors (Gordon Berlin, Frank Furstenberg, and Mary Waters), and participants in the authors’ conference at Princeton University for their insightful feedback. VOL. 20 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2010 19 Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Becoming an adult has tradi- Third, there is a mismatch between young tionally been understood as people making the transition to adulthood comprising five core transi- today and the existing institutional supports, tions—leaving home, com- including residential colleges and univer- pleting school, entering the sities, community colleges, military and workforce, getting married, and having chil- national service programs, work settings, and dren. Recent research on how young adults other environments. The policies, programs, are handling these core transitions has yielded and institutions that served young adults a half-century ago no longer meet the needs three important findings that contributors to of youth today, either in the United States or this volume will explore in the pages to come. Europe, and are based on assumptions that First, both in the United States and in many do not reflect the realities of the world today.3 European countries, the process of becom- ing an adult is more gradual and varied today than it was half a century ago.1 Social timeta- bles that were widely observed in that era no These findings point to the longer seem relevant, and young people are need to strengthen the skills taking longer to achieve economic and psy- chological autonomy than their counterparts and capacities of young people did then. Experiences in early adulthood now on the path to adulthood also vary greatly by gender, race and ethnicity, and social class. as well as to improve the effectiveness of the institutions Second, families are often overburdened in extending support to young adult children as through which they move. they make their way through this extended process. In the United States, in particular, parents contribute sizable material and emo- Together, these three findings point to the tional support through their children’s late need to strengthen the skills and capacities of twenties and into their early thirties. Such young people on the path to adulthood and to flows are to be expected in more privileged improve the effectiveness of the institutions families, but what is now striking are the through which they move. Although some significant flows—and associated strains— of the broad changes we describe are taking in middle-class families at a time when place in Canada and some Western European families themselves have become increasingly nations, as well as in the United States, the stressed or fractured. The heavier reliance on factors that explain them, the consequences families exacerbates the already precarious of and responses to them, and the national plight of young people from a variety of vul- histories in which they are embedded are nerable backgrounds.2 It also raises complex often unique. For these reasons, we focus questions about who is responsible for the most of our attention on the story at home, welfare of young people and whether mar- in the United States. Because our aim is to kets, families, or governments should absorb provide an overview of changes and chal- the risks and costs associated with the early lenges in the contour and content of the early adult years. adult years, we focus on the larger story at 20 THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood the expense of more nuanced ones, which are By the 1950s and 1960s, most Americans told in the topic-focused articles that follow. viewed family roles and adult responsibili- We begin with a brief history of becoming ties as being nearly synonymous. For men, an adult in the United States. We then take the defining characteristic of adulthood a closer look at a few particularly important was having the means to marry and sup- shifts—in leaving the family home, in com- port a family. For women, it was getting pleting schooling, in securing work, in mar- married and becoming a mother; indeed, riage and childbearing, and in the provision most women in that era married before they of family support. We close by illustrating the were twenty-one and had at least one child need to buttress or reform social institutions before they were twenty-three. By their early in light of a longer and more complex passage twenties, then, most young men and women to adulthood. were recognized as adults, both socially and economically. Becoming an Adult: A Brief History During the first few decades of the twentieth In some ways, adult transitions today resem- century, the period known as “adolescence” ble those before industrialization, during the was relatively brief. By their late teens, only late nineteenth and early twentieth century, a small fraction of the population was still in when the livelihoods of most families were school, and most men had begun to work. bound to farms and agricultural jobs rather While many left their natal homes early, than the job market. Becoming an adult then, surprisingly high shares of men and women as now, was a gradual process characterized nonetheless remained at home for a while, by “semi-autonomy,” with youth waiting until as we will later see, and marriage and child- they were economically self-sufficient to set bearing did not happen immediately. As the up independent households, marry, and have century progressed, however, growing pro- children. There are important differences, portions of young people had formed families however, in the ways young people today and by their late teens or early twenties. The in the recent and more distant past define and Great Depression slowed the timing of family achieve adulthood. formation, but by the end of World War II, marriage and childbearing took place almost How do Americans today define adulthood? in lockstep with the conclusion of schooling. To seek an answer, the MacArthur Research In the postwar boom that followed, high- Network on Transitions to Adulthood devel- paying industrial jobs were plentiful, and a oped a set of questions for the 2002 General prosperous economy enabled workers with Social Survey (GSS), an opinion poll admin- high school degrees (or less) and college istered to a nationally representative sample degrees alike to find secure employment with of Americans every two years by the National decent wages and benefits. Between 1949 and Opinion Research Center.5 The survey asked 1970, the income of earners in the lower and nearly 1,400 Americans aged eighteen and middle brackets grew 110 percent or more, older how important it was to reach certain while the income of those in the top brackets traditional markers to be considered an adult: rose between 85 percent and 95 percent.4 leaving home, finishing school, getting a full- time job, becoming financially independent These stable jobs made it possible for couples from one’s parents, being able to support a to marry and form families at young ages. family, marrying, and becoming a parent. VOL. 20 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2010 21 Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Figure 1. Young Men Living at Home (Single, No Children), by Race and Age, 1900–2000 90 White males, age 20 80 White males, age 25 White males, age 30 70 Black males, age 20 60 Black males, age 25 e Black males, age 30 g 50 a nt ce 40 er P 30 20 10 0 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. Today, more than 95 percent of Americans marry before they turn twenty-five, and one- consider the most important markers of adult- third said they should have children by this hood to be completing school, establishing an age. Far fewer of the better-off respondents independent household, and being employed pointed to the early twenties, and about one- full-time—concrete steps associated with the third of them said that these events could be ability to support a family. But only about delayed until the thirties. half of Americans consider it necessary to marry or to have children to be regarded as an Some important new realities underlie these adult. Unlike their parents’ and grandparents’ definitions. First, becoming an adult today generations, for whom marriage and parent- usually involves a period of living indepen- hood were prerequisites for adulthood, young dently before marriage, even though growing people today more often view these markers shares of young people are staying at home as life choices rather than requirements, as longer or returning home later on. Second, steps that complete the process of becoming the early adult years often involve the pursuit an adult rather than start it. of higher education, as a decent standard of living today generally requires a college Definitions of adulthood also differ mark- education, if not a professional degree. Third, edly by social class. For example, Americans regardless of whether young people enter who are less educated and less affluent give college, it takes longer today to secure a earlier deadlines for leaving home, complet- full-time job that pays enough to support a ing school, obtaining full-time employment, family, and young people now have a greater marrying, and parenting. Around 40 percent range of employment experiences in getting of those in the bottom third of the economic there. Fourth, as a consequence of these distribution said that young adults should changes, marriage and parenting now come 22 THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood Figure 2. Young Women Living at Home (Single, No Children), by Race and Age, 1900–2000 70 White females, age 20 White females, age 25 60 White females, age 30 Black females, age 20 50 Black females, age 25 ge 40 Black females, age 30 a nt e erc 30 P 20 10 0 1900 1910 1920 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. significantly later in the life course. Finally, proportion of men and women (single and on each of these fronts, young adults often without children) living with their parents have starkly different sets of options and at the ages of twenty, twenty-five, and thirty experiences depending on their family back- from 1900 to 2000, and table 1, which adds a grounds and resources. Young adults today recent data point, 2007. are also more likely to be black, Hispanic, immigrant, and multi-ethnic than any other In 1900, roughly one-third of white men aged of the nation’s age groups.6 They are also twenty-five were living at home with their more likely to be foreign-born, a characteris- parents—two and a half times the share in tic that in past generations was truer of fami- 1970.7 By 2000, the share living at home was lies’ oldest members. These shifts, too, have one-fifth; by 2007, it had increased to one- prompted new inequalities in early adult life. fourth. Since the 1970s, black men have lived more often with parents than their white Living Independently peers at both ages twenty-five and thirty. The post-World War II script for life left such Figures 1 and 2 show that during this period an indelible mark that it often remains the women have tended to leave home earlier benchmark against which individuals judge than men, and, as we show later, cohabit or themselves and others, even today. Yet the marry earlier as well. postwar model was something of an aberra- tion then as now. Families of the 1950s and It might be tempting to infer from these 1960s did many things differently from their figures that Americans have now returned to predecessors, including launching themselves a more “normal” pattern of delayed home- into adulthood at very early ages. This is leaving. That inference, however, would miss apparent in figures 1 and 2, which show the the important and often unique conditions VOL. 20 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2010 23 Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Table 1. Percentage of Young Adult Men and Women Living with Parents, 2007, by Race Men Women All White Black All White Black Age 20–24 43.0 42.9 45.2 38.0 37.0 40.8 25–29 19.8 18.9 24.8 15.9 14.6 20.0 30–34 10.1 9.5 14.6 7.9 7.3 11.4 At age 20 54.0 54.3 54.6 48.1 47.2 51.5 At 25 26.3 25.5 30.2 21.4 20.1 25.1 At 30 12.1 11.4 18.4 9.7 8.8 13.7 At 35 7.5 6.8 12.1 6.1 5.8 9.5 At 40 5.8 5.8 7.5 4.4 4.0 7.7 Source: Authors’ computations, 2007 American Community Survey, U.S. Bureau of the Census. that every historical era presents. To leave age rises. At each five-year mark—from age home quickly in the 1950s was “normal” twenty, to twenty-five, to thirty—percentages because opportunities were plentiful and are cut in half. Yet even at the ages of thirty- social expectations of the time reinforced the five and forty, between 4 and 12 percent need to do so. At the turn of both the twenti- of adult children live with their parents, eth and twenty-first centuries, greater propor- depending on the group. tions of young people stayed at home longer than those who came of age at mid-century Comparisons between native-born whites because they faced distinctive social and and blacks overlook the very sizable group of economic conditions of their own. young people from other ethnic and immi- grant populations who live at home. In 2008, Carrying the picture forward to 2007, table among young men and women aged eighteen 1 shows the proportion of black and white to twenty-four across ten distinct immigrant young adults, at different ages, who live with groups, second-generation youth (those born their parents. The trends in co-residence in the United States to foreign-born parents) with parents evidenced in figures 1 and 2 are consistently more likely to be living at have made dramatic leaps.8 In every age home than first-generation or so-called 1.5- bracket men are more likely than women to generation youth (those who arrived at age live with parents. Black men live with parents thirteen or older, or age twelve or younger, more often than white men, and more often respectively).9 Immigrants of the second than white and black women, at every age. generation are more likely to live at home than Black women more often live with parents native-born blacks and especially whites, and than do white women, again at every age. some groups show very high rates of home- The share living with parents is particularly staying (for example, between 64 and 75 per- high for men and women in their early twen- cent of young adults from Indian, Dominican, ties, spanning 43 to 50 percent depending on Chinese, Filipino, and Salvadoran/Guatemalan the group, although proportions fall as the backgrounds live at home). 24 THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood Figure 3. Share of Men and Women Aged Twenty-Five Living with Parents, 1970 and 2000 25 1970 23.6 2000 20 18.8 e 15 g a nt 14.2 Perce 10 12.7 10.913.6 11.5 13.3 9.9 5 6.7 7.7 6.3 0 White men Black men Foreign-born White women Black women Foreign-born men women Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. Although residential independence has been women en masse did so for the first time. and continues to be one of the markers of During this era, housing was also inexpensive, attaining adulthood in the United States, and staying with parents humiliating. particularly among native-born youth, recent downturns in the economy may create pres- Figures 3 through 6 demonstrate how much sure on families to house adult children. has changed in just a generation or so. These Growing numbers of young people have also snapshots show that in 1970, only 13 percent been staying at home while enrolled in school of white males were living with their parents or to make ends meet while working.10 at age twenty-five, compared with 19 percent in 2000. Only about 10 percent were living For women, it was not until the 1960s that on their own or with roommates in 1970, large numbers began to live on their own compared with one-third in 2000. Most pro- before marriage, thus creating a critical foundly, nearly seven in ten were married in “hiatus” (as sociologist Frances Goldscheider 1970, compared with only one-third by 2000. has called it) that allowed women to become The trend, then, has been for men to move more fully integrated into the paid labor out of their parents’ homes, but not into mar- market and college classrooms.11 By 1970, riages or even cohabitation; by contrast, the the share of twenty-year-olds who were living proportion living with parents has grown only on their own before marrying was more than modestly. Trends are similar for women and double that for both white men and women for those of other racial and ethnic groups at at the turn of the century.12 As we show later, age twenty-five. Half as many black men, for marriage was becoming less urgent and desir- example, were living at home with parents in able for a host of reasons, and when young 1970 as in 2000. Likewise, the share married people did not marry, they still considered at age twenty-five in 1970 was triple that in moving out and living on their own—and 2000. VOL. 20 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2010 25 Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Figure 4. Share of Men and Women Aged Twenty-Five Living Independently, 1970 and 2000 35 1970 30 33.3 2000 29.2 25 25.0 ge 20 22.5 23.4 a nt 19.4 e erc 15 16.8 P 10 10.4 9.6 9.9 5 5.9 4.7 0 White men Black men Foreign-born White women Black women Foreign-born men women Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. It is clear that the emergence of a period of the higher costs of getting an education are independent living—despite more recent taken into account.14 social concerns about young people staying at home longer or returning home later—is one Young adults have heard the message loud of the most profound changes in the experi- and clear: to get ahead, one needs a college ences of young adults in the past several degree. And, in fact, today’s young adults are decades.13 This significant shift coincides with better educated than any previous generation a few other major transformations in the early in the nation’s history. Yet many youth are adult years, including the rising demand for, also floundering badly. Approximately eight and attainment of, advanced education, to in ten high school seniors plan to attend some which we now turn. form of college or training after high school.15 But even high school dropout rates are high: The Rising Demand for Education among people sixteen to twenty-four years Higher education has flourished in all post- old in 2006, high school dropout rates were industrial and emerging post-industrial 9.3 percent overall and 5.8 percent, 10.7 per- societies. Once reserved for the elite, a cent, and 22.1 percent for whites, blacks, and college education is now a necessity for both Hispanics, respectively.16 More disturbing men and women who want access to good estimates suggest that as many as three in ten jobs. Education and training are more valu- ninth graders today will not graduate from able than ever because jobs are less secure high school four years later; for Hispanics, and work careers have become more fluid. blacks, and Native Americans, the figures The demand for education and training has hover around a disturbing five in ten.17 increased relentlessly over the past four decades, and the economic returns to educa- “College for all” may be a salient cultural tion have grown in recent years, even after message, but only one-quarter of young 26 THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN What’s Going on with Young People Today? The Long and Twisting Path to Adulthood Figure 5. Share of Married Couples Aged Twenty-Five Living Independently, 1970 and 2000 90 1970 80 2000 80.8 70 74.9 60 68.8 64.5 e ag 50 56.3 55.5 nt ce 40 47.3 46.7 er P 30 33.0 20 25.2 24.1 10 18.3 0 White men Black men Foreign-born White women Black women Foreign-born men women Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. adults between the ages of twenty-five and The children of parents who have themselves thirty-four have a bachelor’s degree today, graduated from college are far more likely and only 5 percent have graduate degrees.18 to have both the skills and the resources to Popular perceptions to the contrary, these enter and complete college. Although six shares have not changed significantly in the in ten students whose parents have college past three decades. The breakdown of degree degrees finish college in four years, only holders has changed, however, by gender and about one in ten students whose parents lack by race and ethnicity. Women have now sur- college degrees finishes in four years.23 passed men in college graduation rates and in educational attainment generally.19 Asians The gap between young adults’ high aspira- are most likely to have bachelor’s degrees tions for college and their low graduation or higher, followed by whites. Hispanics rates sounds an important alarm. Youth are least likely. Only 9 percent of Hispanics who are ill-prepared for the rigors of higher between the ages of twenty-five and thirty- education may start school, but they are also four had a bachelor’s degree in 2005. Asians more likely to have unclear plans and inad- are four times more likely than Hispanics to equate skills, veer off course, cycle in and have a bachelor’s degree.20 Among whites, out, or drop out altogether.24 The growth the share with a bachelor’s degree is 27 per- of the “nontraditional” student (one who is cent; among blacks, the share is 15 percent.21 older, working, or parenting) is also a key reason why it now takes longer to get a “four- It is telling that only 40 percent of those who year” degree.25 Youth who have dropped out enter four-year institutions earn degrees of four-year colleges or who are not seeking within six years—and the rest are unlikely four-year degrees often find their way to ever to earn degrees, as six years is generally community colleges. In his article in this vol- understood to be the point of no return.22 ume, Thomas Brock explores the formidable VOL. 20 / NO. 1 / SPRING 2010 27 Richard A. Settersten Jr. and Barbara Ray Figure 6. Share of Singles With Own Children Aged Twenty-Five Living Independently, 1970 and 2000 30 1970 25 27.9 2000 20 e g a nt 15 e c er P 10 9.3 5 2.0 2.0 0.8 4.6 0.0 3.0 0.5 5.4 0.8 3.7 0 White men Black men Foreign-born White women Black women Foreign-born men women Source: Adapted from data compiled in Elizabeth Fussell and Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., “The Transition to Adulthood during the Twentieth Century,” in On the Frontier of Adulthood: Theory, Research, and Public Policy, edited by Richard A. Settersten Jr., Frank F. Furstenberg Jr., and Rubén G. Rumbaut (University of Chicago Press, 2005), pp. 29--75. challenges these students and these institu- using national data have found similar, but tions now face. lower, probabilities of imprisonment.28 The most conservative estimates, from the U.S. More worrisome is the plight of young adults Department of Justice, though nonetheless who have no education beyond high school startling, are that about one in three black and who are largely disengaged from social men and one in six Latino men are expected institutions and economic life—schools, the to go to prison during their lifetime—com- labor market, and the military. In 2005, even pared with one in seventeen white men—if before the current recession and during the current incarceration rates remain height of the Iraq war, roughly three in ten unchanged.29 Among all American men in white men between ages sixteen and twenty- their twenties in 2008, 1.5 percent of whites, four with only a high school degree were not 4 percent of Latinos, and fully 10 percent of in school, in the military, or at work.26 For blacks were incarcerated.30 These are very young black men, the proportion is stagger- high rates of incarceration for all groups, but ing: more than half were not in school, in the far higher for blacks than for others. These military, or at work. data highlight just how difficult the adult experiences and circumstances of black and Of even more concern is the high probability Latino men are, particularly for those with the that poorly educated men, particularly black least education, for whom risks grow in the men, will be imprisoned in early adulthood. late adolescent and early adult years. Economist Steven Raphael estimates that 90 percent of black male high school dropouts in Getting Ahead Gets Harder California aged forty-five to fifty-four have The prosperity that made it possible for histories of imprisonment.27 Other studies young adults to move quickly into adult roles 28 THE FUTURE OF CHILDREN