Tennessee Higher Education Commission 2020-21 Commission Members Mr. Evan Cope, Chair, Murfreesboro (Middle Tennessee) Dr. Nancy Dishner, Jonesborough (East Tennessee) Ms. Pam Koban, Nashville (Middle Tennessee) Mr. Jay Moser, Jefferson City (East Tennessee) Ms. Tara Scarlett, Nashville (Middle Tennessee) Mr. Vernon Stafford, Jr., Collierville (West Tennessee) Mr. Frank L. Watson, Jr., Memphis (West Tennessee) Mayor A C Wharton, Jr., Secretary, Memphis (West Tennessee) Ms. Dakasha Winton, Chattanooga (East Tennessee) Mr. Tre Hargett, Secretary of State Mr. David H. Lillard, Jr., State Treasurer Mr. Justin P. Wilson, State Comptroller Dr. Sara Morrison, Executive Director, State Board of Education, non-voting ex-officio Dawson Hassler, Tennessee Tech University, voting student member Contents Tennessee Higher Education Commission 2020-21 Commission Members .................................................... 3 List of Tables .......................................................................................................................................................... 5 List of Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................... 7 Data and Methods ................................................................................................................................................. 8 COVID-19 and Implications for Supply and Demand Analyses........................................................................ 11 Degrees Produced and Expected ....................................................................................................................... 14 State Workforce Needs ....................................................................................................................................... 18 Top Growing Occupations by Region ................................................................................................................. 20 Oversupplied Programs ...................................................................................................................................... 30 Tennessee Providers for In-Demand Occupations ........................................................................................... 33 Limitations ............................................................................................................................................................ 36 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................... 36 Appendix A: Wage Data by CIP Code and Degree Level ................................................................................... 38 Appendix B: Institutions Included in IPEDS Degree Production Data (Table 3) ............................................. 40 List of Tables Table 1: Highest Number of Claims Filed by In-Demand Occupation ............................................................. 12 Table 2: Highest Percent of Claims Filed to 2020 Employment for In-Demand Occupations ....................... 12 Table 3: Degrees Produced and Expected by Tennessee Institutions, 2015-2020 ........................................ 15 Table 4: Thresholds for In Demand Occupations, by Region ........................................................................... 18 Table 5: Top 25 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Tennessee ............................................. 19 Table 6:Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Greater Memphis .................................. 21 Table 7: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Northwest.............................................. 22 Table 8: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Southwest.............................................. 23 Table 9: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Northern Middle ................................... 24 Table 10: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Southern Middle ................................. 25 Table 11: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Upper Cumberland ............................ 26 Table 12: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- East ...................................................... 27 Table 13: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Southeast ............................................ 28 Table 14: Top 15 High-Demand Occupations by Projected Growth- Northeast ............................................ 29 Table 15: Oversupplied Programs ...................................................................................................................... 30 Table 16: Employment rates for the Academic Programs for the Top 25 Occupations ................................ 32 List of Figures Figure 1: Map of LWDA Regions ......................................................................................................................... 20 Executive Summary This year’s Academic Supply and Occupational Demand report incorporates several meaningful changes from prior years’ reports. The Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC) and Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TDLWD) worked to update the way in which we identify “in-demand” occupations found in Table 4. THEC and TDLWD made these updates in order to bring greater alignment between this report and the LEAP report produced by Tennessee’s Department of Economic and Community Development (ECD). THEC has also updated the way in which we estimate degrees produced and expected to be produced in the coming year. This new method favors simplicity and factors in an average annual growth rate to estimate degree production for the coming year. These data can be found in Section II, Degrees Produced and Expected. Tennesseans should take away two things from this report: first, we need to continue to educate and upskill our workforce; second, there are opportunities for Tennesseans of all skill levels and education to participate in the Tennessee economy. This report: • Highlights updates to the methods behind the “in-demand” identification process. ▪ These updates bring our data into 100% alignment with the ECD “in-demand occupation” definition. • Provides important caveats about the data created by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. ▪ The recession caused by this ongoing pandemic impacted many occupations, including some that appear in the in-demand section of this report. • Provides a five-year snapshot of degrees produced by all public, private, and proprietary institutions in Tennessee. These analyses include updates on trends in the academic fields for which credentials have been awarded. ▪ Awards granted in Tennessee have, on average, increased annually over the past five years. ▪ Students are changing the types of degrees they are earning. The number of students earning STEM awards is increasing more rapidly, while several other degree offerings, such as English, Philosophy, and Education, have decreased in production. • Lists the top 25 occupations that are in-demand within the state, by growth rate. • Lists the top 15 occupations for each region within the state, by growth rate. • Identifies programs for which there are more credentials awarded than jobs calculated to be available, otherwise known as “Oversupplied programs”. • Reports the employment rates for programs of study associated with in-demand occupations. Introduction This report is prepared pursuant to Tennessee Code Annotated § 49-7-112(b), which directs the Tennessee Higher Education Commission (THEC) to “produce an annual report regarding state workforce need projections and credential production.” The 2021 Academic Supply and Occupational Demand report has several notable updates. This year, THEC revamped and revised the Academic Supply and Occupational Demand report to create a product that is more intuitive, well-aligned, specific, and actionable. This report is the result of a collaboration between THEC, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development (TDLWD), and the Department of Economic and Community Development (ECD). The inclusion of ECD among the partners in this report represents over a year of planning and coordinating to create alignment between our respective two reports1 that measure occupational demand in the state. THEC, TDLWD, and ECD studied discrepancies in data sources, methods, and units of analysis between the two reports with an eye towards bringing these two reports closer in alignment. In Summer 2020, all three agencies agreed to adopt the same data and methods for studying occupational demand within the state. The 2021 Academic Supply and Occupational Demand report represents the first time in the report’s history that the occupational data listed within are 100% aligned with ECD’s LEAP report. The reimagining of this report brings about greater clarity and purpose to the data within, as well as greater alignment and collaboration between agencies tasked with workforce planning at the statewide level. We believe this change is both significant and meaningful. Seamless alignment between these reports provides a unified message and clear directions for the future of our state. It changes the way policymakers, workforce planners, and individuals think about, and prepare for, the future. THEC continues to work with the named partners here, as well as other state agencies, to create relevant data and analysis that Tennesseans can use to plan for the future of our workforce. This work can guide the future of workforce planning at both the state and regional level. 1 ECD’s LEAP 2020: In-Demand Occupations Report can be found here: https://tnecd.com/wp- content/uploads/2020/10/2020-LEAP-Report-10-27-2020-1.pdf This report is divided into five sections: • COVID-19 and Implications for Supply and Demand Analyses highlights the limitations of supply and demand analyses during the tumultuous economic circumstances created by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. • Degrees Produced and Expected presents historical production and a one-year projection of postsecondary credentials to be awarded by public, private, and proprietary institutions in Tennessee through 2021 using data from the Integrated Postsecondary Educational Data System (IPEDS). • State Workforce Needs identifies the top 25 high-demand occupations in terms of projected annual growth in Tennessee through 2028. Additionally, this section lists the top 15 occupations by projected growth through 2026 by region. This section also lists the most oversupplied programs of study in Tennessee, for which there are substantially more postsecondary graduates than job opportunities. • Employment Rates for Programs of Study displays the employment data for students graduating from programs of study that lead to in-demand jobs. • Limitations and Conclusions describes the caveats in these analyses and summarizes the key takeaways of the report. Data and Methods Academic Supply Projections Postsecondary credentials are projected through academic year 2021, based on historical data for 2015- 2020. The institutions included in these projections are public, private, and proprietary institutions in Tennessee that award postsecondary certificates, associate’s degrees, or bachelor’s degrees.2 THEC used historical data from Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS).3 Occupational Demand Projections TDLWD projected occupational demand by Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) code. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics provides information about the education and training required for specific occupations across the state. These education and training requirements reflect what is typically observed for an employee in each occupation, though exceptions exist. Except where otherwise noted, any mention of “in- demand” in this report refers to the 25 highest-demand occupations by average annual growth listed in Table 5. 2 Only certificates, associate’s degrees, and bachelor’s degrees are included in the analysis to better align this report with Tennessee’s Drive to 55 initiative, which set the goal of increasing Tennessee’s educational attainment to 55% by 2025. Degrees awarded show only awards given for first majors. 3 IPEDS is a federal dataset containing information about higher education institutions, including student demographics, program offerings, and completion data. Data are available at https://nces.ed.gov/ipeds/ One of the primary data sets used to identify workforce demand is Tennessee’s long-term occupational projections, including expected annual total openings. These data come from the Department of Labor and Workforce Development. The openings consist of those created by growth and by occupational separations. Additional criteria including real-time labor market information from Tennessee’s jobs database were used to present a more comprehensive picture of occupations in demand and their characteristics. More information on the occupational selection process can be found in Table 4. The average annual occupational projections are then compared to the number of people being trained in Tennessee in related programs of study to determine if shortages of workers in certain occupations are expected (Table 15). Data for academic program completers come from Tennessee’s State Longitudinal Data System (SLDS). The relationship between education requirements and occupation is most direct for highly specialized fields, such as those requiring a specific certificate or an advanced degree. Conversely, many fields requiring a bachelor’s are less clearly defined, as those who hold a bachelor’s often have diverse employment opportunities in a variety of fields. Wage Data by Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Code Wage data by Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) code tables are created using Tennessee’s State Longitudinal Data System (SLDS), also known as P20 Connect. Detailed educational program outcome information within programs of study can be found in the appendix. With increasing concern about degree value, the appendix lists CIP-level wage data for graduates of 100 public, private, and proprietary schools across Tennessee, including the name of each program, its CIP code, and the average wage by program for those earning wages in Tennessee and not enrolled in school. Programs differ widely in the average wages of graduates as they enter the workforce. - Section One: COVID-19 and Implications for Supply and Dema nd Analyses