ReseaRch Note 2013-3 College Access and Success Among High School Graduates Taking the SAT®: Latino Students By Mary e. M. McKillip and Philip e. Mackey trends Mary E. M. McKillip is an assistant research scientist at the College Board. Philip E. Mackey is a senior researcher at REL Mid-Atlantic. The authors are grateful to Jun Li for his assistance in compiling the data for this project. About the College Board The College Board is a mission-driven not-for-profit organization that connects students to college success and opportunity. Founded in 1900, the College Board was created to expand access to higher education. Today, the membership association is made up of over 6,000 of the world’s leading educational institutions and is dedicated to promoting excellence and equity in education. Each year, the College Board helps more than seven million students prepare for a successful transition to college through programs and services in college readiness and college success — including the SAT® and the Advanced Placement Program®. The organization also serves the education community through research and advocacy on behalf of students, educators and schools. For further information, visit www.collegeboard.org. © 2013 The College Board. College Board, Advanced Placement Program, AP, SAT and the acorn logo are registered trademarks of the College Board. PSAT/NMSQT is a registered trademark of the College Board and National Merit Scholarship Corporation. All other products and services may be trademarks of their respective owners. Printed in the United States of America. trends For more information on College Board research and data, visit research.collegeboard.org. Contents Executive Summary ................................................................................................3 Introduction .............................................................................................................4 College Attendance and Graduation .....................................................................5 Characteristics Related to College Enrollment and Graduation .........................5 Aspirations and Self-Perceived Ability .........................................................5 Academic Achievements ...............................................................................7 Gender, Parental Education, and Language Use.........................................10 Conclusions ............................................................................................................14 References ..............................................................................................................15 Tables Table 1. College Attendance and Graduation Patterns of 2004 and 2010 SAT® Takers, by Race/Ethnic Group .....................................................................................................................5 Figures Figure 1. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by degree goals ..............................................6 Figure 2. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by self-estimated mathematics ability .........7 Figure 3. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by number of AP® Exams taken ....................8 Figure 4. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by number of AP Exams with scores of 3, 4, or 5 ........8 Figure 5. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by SAT critical reading scores ......................................9 Figure 6. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by cumulative grade point average ............................10 Figure 7. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by gender ......................................................................11 Figure 8. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by parental education ..................................................12 Figure 9. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by language use............................................................13 Latino College Success Executive Summary This report shows college enrollment and graduation trends among Latino SAT® takers who finished high school in 2004 and 2010 by various student characteristics including aspirations, self-perceived ability, and academic achievements. In every case, students in the top categories (high aspirations, high perceived ability, high assessed ability) were the most likely to enroll in four-year colleges within one year after graduating from high school in 2004 and in 2010. Students in these top categories among the 2004 cohort were also more likely to have graduated from a four-year college six years later. We found patterns seen previously in research: Females and students whose parents went to college tended to have more positive college outcomes. Additionally, we found an increase in SAT participation, Advanced Placement Program® (AP®) participation, two-year college enrollment, and an increase in students with high aspirations and self-perceived ability. These positive trends, combined with the finding that relationships between student characteristics and college enrollment in 2010 were quite similar to the relationships seen in 2004, suggest that an increased number of Latino students may graduate with college degrees in the coming years. We also find an increased proportion of Latino SAT takers who report bilingualism, suggesting that we may see an increased number of college graduates who are bilingual in the coming years as well. College Board Research Notes 3 Latino College Success Introduction This report documents the trends in college enrollment and four-year college degree attainment among Latino SAT takers1 from the high school graduating classes of 2004 and 2010. It is one in a series of four research reports examining high school student characteristics and college outcomes among students from African American, Asian American, Latino, and Native American backgrounds. This report may be used to consider characteristics of Latino SAT takers in high school and how these characteristics are related to college access and success. However, it is descriptive in nature, so it cannot be used to draw conclusions about what causes positive college outcomes among Latino students. Latino students are less likely to enroll and persist in college than white students (Ross et al., 2012; Perna, 2000). However, we do not know enough about what characteristics among Latino students are linked to college enrollment and success, and the quickly growing population of Latino students in the U.S. makes our understanding of these patterns particularly important. These characteristics are important to consider for two additional reasons: (1) There may be differences in the characteristics that contribute to Latino college success that are not apparent in studies of college success among all students, and (2) it is important to recognize the educational successes of students and not just highlight problems. This report provides a revealing look at Latino college enrollment in the high school graduating cohorts of 2004 and 2010 and six-year graduation rates of SAT takers in the cohort of 2004 who enrolled in a four-year college within one year of high school graduation. The National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) has recently provided the College Board with data showing postsecondary enrollment and graduation outcomes of SAT takers. NSC data are collected from more than 3,300 postsecondary institutions within the U.S., accounting for 96% of all U.S. college students. These data are combined with student demographic information and AP and SAT assessment data2 to show within-group variations in college attendance and graduation of Latino students, who attended both public and private high schools in the U.S. By comparing characteristics of Latino SAT takers graduating from high school in 2004 with those graduating from high school in 2010, this report also offers a glimpse at what the future may hold for recent high school graduates. The data show that students exiting high school in 2004 and 2010 who had higher aspirations, higher self-perception of their abilities, and higher achievements tended to be more likely to enroll in college. Students graduating from high school in 2004 with these characteristics also tended to be more successful in obtaining college degrees within six years. The fact that there was a sizeable increase in the number of Latino students taking the SAT and that four-year enrollment trends have held steady among this group suggest that many more Latino students may experience college success by 2016. At the same time, although this report does not focus on achievement gaps, challenges remain that inhibit the college prospects of many Latino students. 1. Latino students include students who selected “Mexican or Mexican American,” “Puerto Rican,” or “Other Hispanic, Latino, or Latin American” in response to the question “How do you describe yourself?” on the SAT Questionnaire. This question may exclude some students who identify as Latino as well as another race/ethnic group, as students were required to mark only one option; it also combines students of heterogeneous ethnic backgrounds (Mexican, Colombian, Honduran, etc.) into one race/ethnic category. 2. Students taking a College Board assessment are assigned a unique identifier that can be linked across exams to study a student’s test-taking history throughout high school. These assessment data can also be connected to student demographic information collected during SAT registration. 4 College Board Research Notes Latino College Success College Attendance and Graduation In 2004, 131,778 Latino students took the SAT in the U.S. by the time they graduated from high school. An estimated 380,736 Latino seniors graduated in 2004, which suggests that we are capturing information on approximately3 35% of the population (Prescott & Bransberger, 2012). By 2005, 75% of these students had enrolled in college, with 28% first attending a two-year institution and 47% first attending a four-year institution. After 2005, an additional 7% enrolled in a two-year college, while 4% more enrolled in a four-year college. By 2010, 55% of the 2004 examinees who enrolled in a four-year college within one year of graduation had attained a bachelor’s degree.4 In 2010, 217,520 Latino graduating seniors took the SAT during high school, approximately 39% of Latino graduating seniors. This is an increase of about 4 percentage points in the Latino student population taking an SAT. By 2011, 78% of these students had enrolled in college at some point, an increase of 3 percentage points, although the increase in college enrollment was only seen in Latino students attending two-year colleges. Table 1 puts these numbers into context. Table 1. College Attendance and Graduation Patterns of 2004 and 2010 SAT Takers, by Race/Ethnic Group First College First College Attended by 2005 Attended by 2011 Number of Number of 2004 4-Yr 2010 SAT Takers SAT Takers 2-Yr 2-Yr 4-Yr Graduated by 2010 African American 144,520 21% 54% 49% 193,389 26% 54% Asian American 105,716 20% 64% 69% 135,448 20% 65% Latino 131,778 28% 47% 55% 217,520 32% 46% Native American 8,423 24% 51% 54% 8,436 25% 54% White 844,171 18% 65% 71% 836,294 20% 67% Characteristics Related to College Enrollment and Graduation Aspirations and Self-Perceived Ability On the SAT Questionnaire, students were asked, “What is the highest level of education you plan to complete beyond high school?” Figure 1 shows enrollment rates of Latino SAT takers. Each bar in the figure shows the percentage of students who enrolled in a four-year college within the first year after high school among the 2004 and 2010 cohorts by degree goals. The lighter purple section of each bar for 2004 shows the proportion of enrolled students who went on to graduate with a bachelor’s degree by 2010. 3. We include SAT takers from both public and private U.S. schools, while the overall student population counts include only public school graduates; thus, these estimates can only be considered approximate. 4. Available NSC data do not provide an accurate count of two-year college graduates, so this report focuses on four-year college graduation outcomes. College Board Research Notes 5 Latino College Success Figure 1 reveals several interesting trends. First, the most common goal among Latino SAT takers in both 2004 (N = 61,256) and 2010 (N = 110,713) was a graduate degree, and the proportion of Latino SAT takers aspiring to a bachelor’s degree or higher increased from 65% in 2004 to 73% in 2010. Second, students interested in a graduate degree were also the most likely to enroll in a four-year college within one year after high school (53% in 2004 and 54% in 2010). Third, students who were undecided about their degree goals or interested only in a bachelor’s degree were similarly likely to enroll in a four-year college after high school in 2004. Fourth, once enrolled, 56% of the 2004 cohort who were interested in a graduate degree and 55% who were undecided did succeed in completing their bachelor’s degree; 48% of students reporting an end goal of a bachelor’s degree succeeded in that goal by 2010; and only 35% of students interested in a two-year degree completed a bachelor’s degree by 2010 instead. These trends suggest that aspirations to a goal are related to actually achieving that goal and that it is not a problem for students to have some uncertainty about what their ultimate end goal may be. The trends also suggest that many Latino SAT takers who enroll in four-year colleges aspire to go further and pursue graduate degrees. Figure 1. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by degree goals.5 2004 SAT Cohort N = 131,778 Degree Goals 2010 SAT Cohort N = 217,520 53% 61,256 Graduate- 110,713 54% level degree 38% 23,766 Bachelor’s 48,543 41% degree Two-year 16% 1,844 associate 3,279 14% degree 42% 20,243 Undecided 29,787 40% Enrolled in a four-year college Four-year enrollees who graduated by 2010 SAT takers were also asked, “How do you think you compare with other people your own age in the following three areas of ability?” Figure 2 reports the responses for mathematics; the patterns for science and writing ability (not shown) were similar. Most Latino SAT takers consider themselves average or above average in ability. The higher a student’s self-reported ability, the more likely he or she was to enroll in a four-year college within a year after high school. Once enrolled, students reporting higher mathematics abilities in the 2004 cohort were more likely to graduate with a bachelor’s degree by 2010 than those viewing themselves as less academically able. Additionally, there have been increases in these top mathematics ability 5. College enrollment and graduation rates for students who did not complete a particular question on the SAT are excluded from the associated figure in this report; thus, the counts for each category in a figure will not sum to the total SAT count. 6 College Board Research Notes Latino College Success levels (above average and among the highest 10%) when comparing the 2004 cohort with the 2010 cohort, from representing 38% of the Latino SAT takers in 2004 to 43% in 2010. Figure 2. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by self-estimated mathematics ability. 2004 SAT Cohort N = 131,778 Mathematics Ability 2010 SAT Cohort N = 217,520 66% 14,017 Among the 29,598 65% highest 10% 54% 35,441 Above 64,367 54% Average 39% 53,081 Average 88,709 38% 29% 5,574 Below 9,706 28% Average Enrolled in a four-year college Four-year enrollees who graduated by 2010 Academic Achievements Beyond aspirations and perceptions of ability, we look at actual achievement on assessments and cumulative grade point averages (GPA). Figure 3 shows college enrollment and graduation by the number of AP Exams a student took, while Figure 4 displays college outcomes by the number of AP Exams on which a student scored a 3 or higher.6 These figures show that 47% of Latino SAT takers participated in AP Exams in 2010,7 up from 41% in 2004. A smaller proportion, 28%, scored a 3 or higher on any AP Exam in either year. Students who took more AP Exams and those who scored a 3 or higher on them were more likely to enroll in four-year colleges. For example, 47% of Latino students in the 2010 cohort who took one AP Exam enrolled in a four-year college within one year, compared with 33% among students who took no AP Exams; 55% of Latino students in the 2010 cohort who scored a 3 or higher on one AP Exam enrolled in college by 2011, compared with 38% among students who did not. Additionally, among the 2004 cohort, there is a relationship between a student’s AP Exam history and college graduation. Among students who enrolled in a four-year college within one year after high school graduation, the more AP Exams a student participated in and succeeded on, the more likely he or she was to graduate with a bachelor’s degree by 2010. 6. AP Exams are scored on a 1-to-5 scale, with scores of 3 or higher signifying a student being considered qualified to receive college credit or advanced placement. 7. The number of Latino SAT takers who were AP course participants is likely higher than the number of AP examinees, but the data used here do not provide a count of how many students took an AP course without taking its associated exam. College Board Research Notes 7 Latino College Success Figure 3. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by number of AP Exams taken. 2004 SAT Cohort N = 131,778 AP Exams Taken 2010 SAT Cohort N = 217,520 74% 21,552 3 or 47,398 71% more 61% 11,939 2 20,867 56% 51% 21,111 1 33,861 47% 36% 77,176 0 115,394 33% Enrolled in a four-year college Four-year enrollees who graduated by 2010 Figure 4. Percentage of Latino SAT takers enrolling in and graduating from a four-year college among 2004 and 2010 cohorts, by number of AP Exams with scores of 3, 4, or 5. 2004 SAT Cohort N = 131,778 AP Exams Passed 2010 SAT Cohort N = 217,520 84% 7,758 3 or 16,959 84% more 68% 6,949 2 11,323 69% 56% 22,026 1 32,355 55% 40% 95,045 0 156,883 38% Enrolled in a four-year college Four-year enrollees who graduated by 2010 Figure 5 considers the relationship between SAT critical reading scores and college enrollment and graduation for Latino students. SAT mathematics scores show very similar trends so are not presented here. Higher-scoring students are much more likely to enroll in a four-year college after high school than their lower-scoring peers. Also, among the 2004 8 College Board Research Notes