DOCUMENT RESUME ED 470 860 CE 084 055 Le, Anh T.; Miller, Paul W. AUTHOR Educational Attainment in Australia: A Cohort Analysis. TITLE Research Report. Australian Council for Educational Research, Victoria. INSTITUTION SPONS AGENCY Australian. Dept. of Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs, Canberra. LSAY-RR-25 REPORT NO 2002-01-00 PUB DATE NOTE 70p. AVAILABLE FROM ACER Customer Service, Private Bag 55, Camberwell, Victoria 3124 Australia (Code: A125LSA; $40 Australian). Tel: 61 3 9835 7447; Fax: 61 3 9835 7499; e-mail: [email protected]; Web site: http://www.acer.edu.au/acerpress/index.html. For full text: http://www.acer.edu.au/ research/vocational/lsay/reports/LSAY25.pd f. PUB TYPE Numerical/Quantitative Data (110) Reports Research (143) EDRS PRICE EDRS Price MF01/PC03 Plus Postage. DESCRIPTORS Catholic Schools; *Cohort Analysis; Comparative Analysis; Course Selection (Students); *Decision Making; *Educational Attainment; Educational Research; Educational Trends; *Enrollment Influences; Enrollment Trends; Family Size; Foreign Countries; Individual Characteristics; Literature Reviews; Longitudinal Studies; Measurement Techniques; Models; National Surveys; Outcomes of Education; Parent Background; Participation; Postsecondary Education; Private Schools;. Research Methodology; *School Choice; Secondary Education; Sex Differences; Social Background; Statistical Analysis; Trend Analysis; *Vocational Education; Youth; Youth Employment IDENTIFIERS *Australia; Impact Studies; Logit Analysis; Probit Analysis; Return on Investment ABSTRACT Data primarily from Australia's Youth in Transition Survey were analyzed to explain differences in the schooling decisions of individuals born in 1961 versus 1970. The main measured factors affecting individuals' schooling decisions were as follows: ability; school type; and family background. Participation in school was positively associated with individual ability, enrollment at a nongovernment school, and having parents with high educational attainment. The main factors that have contributed to the change in educational attainment of the 1970 cohort compared to the 1961 cohort were as follows: individual ability; parents' educational attainment; family size; and attendance at Catholic and other independent schools. Over the decade studied, male and female schooling increased at similar rates, with the mean female schooling level increasing only slightly faster than the mean male level of schooling. The analysis indicated that labor market reforms focusing on females per se are not likely to have a major impact on females' schooling decisions. Information on the following items is appended: the ordered probit model of participation in education; decomposition analysis of changes in educational attainment over, time; the study data and variables; decomposition of schooling attainments based on logit models; and the return to education and school continuation decisions. (Contains 17 tables and 46 references.) (MN) Reproductions supplied by EDRS are the best that can be made from the ori inal document. Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth Research Report Number 25 Educational Attainment in Australia: A Cohort Analysis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Office of Educational Research and Improvement EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) This document has been reproduced as received from the person or organization originating it. Minor changes have been made to improve reproduction quality. Points of view or opinions stated in this document do not necessarily represent official OERI position or policy. Anh T. Le Paul W. Miller January 2002 PERMISSION TO REPRODUCE AND DISSEMINATE THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN GRANTED BY 114 Pi il Oda4d___ TO THE EDUCATIONAL RESOURCES AVAILABLE BEST COPY INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC) 1 eZt \LI ACER Australian eniinnil fnr Friiinatinnal RAsparnh k4 Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth: Research Reports Completing School in Australia: Trends in the 1990s. S. Lamb (1996) 1. School Students and Part-Time Work. L. Robinson (1996) 2. Reading Comprehension and Numeracy among Junior Secondary School Students in Australia. 3. G. Marks. & J. Ainley (1997) School Achievement and Initial Education and Labour Market Outcomes. S. Lamb (1997) 4. Attitudes to School Life: Their influences and their effects on achievement and leaving school. 5. G. Marks (1998) Well-being among Young Australians: Effects of work and home life for four Youth in Transition 6. cohorts. N. Fleming & G. Marks (1998) Factors Influencing Youth Unemployment in Australia: 1980-1994. G. Marks & N. Fleming (1998) 7. Youth Earnings in Australia 1980-1994: A comparison of three youth cohorts. 8. G. Marks & N. Fleming (1998) The Effects of Part-time Work on School Students. L. Robinson (1999) 9. 10. Work Experience and Work Placements in Secondary School Education. S. Fullarton (1999) 11. Early School Leaving in Australia: Findings from the 1995 Year 9 LSAY Cohort. G. Marks & N. Fleming (1999) 12. Curriculum and Careers: The education and labour market consequences of Year 12 subject choice. S. Lamb & K. Ball (1999) 13. Participation in Education and Training 1980 1994. M. Long, P. Carpenter. & M. Hayden (1999) 14. The Initial Work and Education Experiences of Early School Leavers: A comparative study of Australia and the United States. S. Lamb & R. Rumberger (1999) 15. Subject Choice by Students in Year 12 in Australian Secondary Schools. S. Fullarton & J. Ainley (2000) 16. Non-completion of School in Australia: The changing patterns of participation and outcomes. S. Lamb, P. Dwyer & J. Wyn (2000) 17. Patterns of Participation in Year 12 and Higher Education in Australia: Trends and issues. G. Marks, N. Fleming, M. Long & J. McMillan (2000) 18. Patterns of Success and Failure in the Transition from School to Work in Australia. S. Lamb & P. McKenzie (2001) 19. The Pathways from School to Further Study and Work for Australian Graduates. S. Lamb (2001) 20. Participation and Achievement in VET of Non-completers of School. K. Ball & S. Lamb (2001) 21. VET in Schools: Participation and pathways. S. Fullarton (2001) 22. Tertiary Entrance Performance: The role of student background and school factors. G. Marks, J. McMillan & K. Hillman (2001) 23. Firm-based Training for Young Australians: Changes from the 1980s to the 1990s. M. Long & S. Lamb (2002) 24. Neighbourhood Effects and Community Spillovers in the Australian Youth Labour Market. D. Andrews, C. Green & J. Mangan (2002) 25. Educational Attainment in Australia: A cohort analysis. Anh T. Le & P.W. Miller (2002) To purchase copies of the above reports, please refer to the ACER website or contact: Fax: 03 9835 7499; [email protected] ACER Customer Service: Phone: 03 9835 7447 Postal Address: ACER, Private Bag 55, Camberwell Vic 3124 Web: http://www.acer.edu.au 3 Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth Research Report Number 25 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN AUSTRALIA: A COHORT ANALYSIS Anh T. Le (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia) Paul W. Miller (Department of Economics, The University of Western Australia) This report forms part of the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth: a research program that is jointly managed by ACER and the Commonwealth Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST). The project has been funded by the DEST LSAY Analytic Grants Scheme. The Scheme aims to widen the use of LSAY data amongst researchers and encourage new approaches to using the data to address policy issues. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and not necessarily of the Department of Education, Science and Training or the Australian Council for Educational Research. January 2002 gat Australian Council for Educational Research 4 Published 2002 by The Australian Council for Educational Research Ltd 19 Prospect Hill Road, Camberwell, Victoria, 3124, Australia. Copyright © 2002 Australian Council for Educational Research ISSN 1440-3455 ISBN 0 86431 496 5 Contents iv Tables iv Figures Executive summary v INTRODUCTION 1. 1 A STATISTICAL PORTRAIT 2 2. MODELS OF SCHOOL PARTICIPATION 8 3. METHODOLOGY 10 4. RESULTS OF MODELS: AN AGGREGATE ANALYSIS 12 5. 1961 cohort 13 22 1970 cohort Comparison of 1961 and 1970 cohorts 25 GENDER DIFFERENCES IN EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT 31 6. 38 Decomposition results 43 CONCLUSION 7. 45 REFERENCES 48 Ordered probit model of participation in education APPENDIX 1: 49 Changes in educational attainment over time: Decomposition analysis APPENDIX 2: Data and defmitions of variables APPENDIX 3: 51 Decomposition of schooling attainments based on logit models APPENDIX 4: 57 The return to education and school continuation decisions 59 APPENDIX 5: 6 Tables Table 1 WLS estimates of schooling level-1961 cohort, pooled sample 15 Table 2 Ordered probit estimates of model of education levels-1961 cohort, pooled sample 20 Table 3 WLS estimates of schooling level-1970 cohort, pooled sample 23 Table 4 Ordered probit estimates of model of education levels-1970 cohort, pooled sample 24 Table 5 The level of significance of differences of variables between the 1961 and 1970 cohorts 26 Table 6 Decomposition of the change in educational attainment between 1961 and 1970 cohorts 29 Table 7 WLS estimates of schooling level-1961 cohort, males and females 32 Table 8 WLS estimates of schooling level-1970 cohort, males and females 33 Table 9 Ordered probit estimates of model of education levels-1961 cohort, males and females 35 Table 10 Ordered probit estimates of model of education levels-1970 cohort, males and females 36 Table 11 Decomposition of the change in educational attainment between males and females, 1961-1970 39 Table 12 Decomposition of the influences of variables on the gender educational difference 42 Table 3.1 Weighted means and standard deviations of variablespooled sample 54 Table 3.2 Weighted means and standard deviations of variablesmales 55 Table 3.3 Weighted means and standard deviations of variablesfemales 56 Figures Figure 1 School participation rates, 15-19 year olds 1960-1999 3 Figure 2 Higher education participation rates, all students 1960-1999 4 7 iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The decision to invest in education is influenced by a large number of economic, social, Many of these changed during the 1960s, family, personal and institutional factors. Several of the more important of these changes are not expected to 1970s and 1980s. have impacted equally on the schooling decisions of males and females. This expectation appears to be borne out by the aggregate school participation rate data. Over the four decades from 1960 to 1999, there was an increase in the male school participation rate of 24 percentage points and a 32 percentage point increase for females. The gender school participation rate differential in favour of males narrowed progressively, particularly during the 1970s, to the point in 1985 where the participation rates of males and females were the same. Since 1986 the school participation rate of females has exceeded that of males. There was also a significant increase over the period in female participation in higher education relative to that of males. Using the Youth in Transition Survey, this paper attempts to explain differences in the schooling decision of two cohorts, namely individuals born in 1961 and 1970. The aims are to establish whether the way in which education decisions are made differ across cohorts, and to assess whether any such differences can be related to the institutional reforms that occurred over the 1960 to 1980 period. The study emphasises differences in schooling decisions across gender. The main measured factors that affect an individual's schooling decision at a point in time are ability, school type and family background. Participation in school is positively associated with individual ability, enrolment at a non-government school and having parents with high educational attainment. These findings are consistent with previous Australian and overseas research. Attention is in particular drawn to the dominant role Miller, Mulvey and Martin (2001), for played by ability in these and related analyses. example, use an alternative research methodology to show that the greater part of the variance in educational attainments is due to genetic endowments, thus downplaying to some extent the role of family background, which is generally considered as an indicator of the inequality of schooling opportunity. The study shows the main factors that have contributed to the change in educational attainment of the younger (1970) cohort compared to the older (1961) cohort are individual ability, the parents' educational attainment, family size and attendance at Catholic and other Independent schools. The approach taken in this study permits the relative importance of each of these influences on the change in educational attainment Reasons for the links between each influence and over time to be established. For example, the educational attainment are discussed, and implications drawn out. positive value for the parents' educational attainments reflects the growth in the It also shows that the inheritance of attributes such as education of parents over time. education will have some impact on the individual's success in later life. The positive values of the explained component for the school types variables follow the growth in retention rates for individuals in non-government schools over the decade. With regard to differences in educational attainment across gender, the analyses show that male and female schooling have increased at similar rates over the decade under review, with the mean female schooling level increasing only slightly faster than the mean male level of schooling. The slight increase in female schooling relative to that of males is due almost entirely to differential rates of change in the characteristics of males and females, including individual ability, parent's education, family size, wealth and attendance at Catholic schools. In comparison, changes in the estimated coefficients play a minor role in explaining the gender difference in schooling. Such changes, which reflect changes in the way measured variables are linked to educational attainment, are generally attributed to the role of external factors, such as social and labour market reforms. Accordingly, the results suggest that major changes in the labour market with a focus on females per se during the 1970s and 1980s, specifically the Equal Pay for Equal Work decision of 1969, the Equal Pay for Work of Equal Value decision of 1972 and the Sex Discrimination Act of 1984, have had little impact on the difference in schooling between males and females. This may be because female schooling decisions are made on the basis of within-gender comparison of the advantages associated with higher levels of education. The fmdings reported in this study indicate that, in terms of cohort analysis, further attention in research needs to be devoted to the time periods covered, so that the cohort analysis can overlap the much wider period covered in typical cross-sectional studies such as Le and Miller (2001). Attention also needs to be devoted to the role of the father's occupational status and the educational attainments of both the mother and father. The role of these dimensions of family background in affecting decisions other than the school leaving decision should also be investigated. Included here are the associations between family background and the type of school attended. Such analysis would provide understanding of some of the important changes documented in this study and referred to simply as 'changes in means'. The analyses show that labour market reforms that have a focus on females per se are not likely to have a major impact on female schooling decisions. However, any increases in the income and other advantages associated with higher education among females may have an influence. It is also evident that school type has a considerable bearing on school leaving decisions. The reasons for this are in need of examination. Moreover, the importance of ability in comparison to family background factors in contributing to differences in educational attainment is consistent with other research in this area using different data sets and analytical techniques (e.g., Miller, Mulvey & Martin 2001). In the context of the decompositions advanced in this study, as changes in the ability variable are generally considered to be outside the scope of education policy, changes in educational attainment might arise only through changes in the way individuals of different levels of ability make decisions. To this end the curriculum in, or advantages offered by, the various levels of education may need to be the focus in order to achieve the change in coefficients that have been shown by the decomposition analyses as being to be a major impact on educational order for there needed in attainments. 9 vi Educational Attainment in Australia: A Cohort Analysis INTRODUCTION 1. The 1960s, 1970s and 1980s were periods of major change in Australia. The voting in of the Labor Government in 1972, on the slogan 'It's Time', is illustrative of the mood for Important laws such as the Family Law Act of general social reform during this era. 1975, the Sex Discrimination Act of 1984 and the Affirmative Action (Equal Employment Opportunity for Women) Act of 1986 reveal that the impetus for social Similarly, the Equal Pay for Equal Work reform resulted in significant policy change. (1969) and Equal Pay for Work of Equal Value (1972) decisions had major impacts on the wage distribution, with the female rate of pay increasing considerably, both absolutely and relatively. According to Gregory and Duncan (1981), the female award rates as a percentage of those of males increased from 72 per cent in 1969 to 92 per cent in 1976. Over the same time period, female earnings as a percentage of those of males rose from 58 per cent to 77 per cent. This period was also one of substantial reform and change in the schools sector. The curriculum was restructured across the various years of study, and methods of assessment altered (see, for example, Commonwealth Department of Education 1977). School participation rates increased markedly. The changes that took place in the schools sector and in society in general did not have a neutral impact on the schooling behaviour of Whereas more males than females participated in secondary and males and females. higher education at the commencement of this period, by 1976 the relative position of males and females in school participation rates had been reversed. At least some part of these changes in the schools sector may be linked to the changes in the labour market that occurred at this time. The changes in school participation over the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s are important to understand because of the role educational attainment plays in determining a person's The level of education appears to play a significant role in the future success. determination of whether a person is employed or unemployed (e.g., Le & Miller 2000). It also appears to be closely related to the earnings of the employed (Borland 1996; Preston 1997) as well as their occupational attainment (Kidd & Meng 1997). In an attempt to develop understanding of the determinants of educational attainment, this paper provides an analysis of the schooling decisions of two cohorts, namely These individuals will have made their school individuals born in 1961 and 1970. leaving decisions in the mid-to-late 1970s and mid-to-late 1980sthe key periods of social and economic change highlighted above. The aims are to establish whether the way in which education decisions are made differs across cohorts, and to assess whether any such differences can be related to the institutional reforms that occurred at the time. To facilitate this, the study emphasises differences in the ways male and female school decisions are made. The reason for this is that the most important of the institutional reforms that occurred are expected to affect male and female schooling decisions in different ways. While previous studies have examined both cohort and gender effects using the same data as employed in the current analysis (e.g., Williams, Long, Carpenter & Hayden 1993a; Long, Carpenter & Hayden 1999; Marks, Fleming, Long & McMillan 2000), the distinguishing feature of the current study is the more rigorous framework in 10