2010 State of the Future CHAPTER 9 Environmental Security Emerging Environmental Security Issues Monthly Environmental Scanning Summarizing document with the items organized by theme ––Items identified between August 2002 and June 2010–– Foreword 1. Executive Summary 2. Summarizing Environmental Security Monthly Scanning A. Preventing or repairing military damage to the environment B. Preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts C. Protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value 3. References Other Millennium Project studies related to environmental security: Environmental Security: Emerging International Definitions, Perceptions, and Policy Considerations (study conducted in 1997–1998) Environmental Security: United Nations Doctrine for Managing Environmental Issues in Military Actions (study conducted in 1999–2000) Environmental Crimes in Military Actions and the International Criminal Court (ICC)––UN Perspectives (study conducted in 2000–2001) Future International Environmental Security Issues and Potential Military Requirements over the period of 2010 to 2025 (study conducted in 2001–02) Chapter 9: Environmental Security 1 2010 State of the Future FOREWORD The purpose of the monthly environmental security scanning reports is to assess worldwide environment-related events in order to identify and analyze issues that might trigger future international environmental regulations and/or modifications to the existing ones with potential implications for the military. The Millennium Project defines environmental security as environmental viability for life support, with three sub-elements: • preventing or repairing military damage to the environment, • preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts, and • protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value. This chapter presents a summary of the events and emerging environmental security–related issues organized around this definition. Over the past several years, with support from the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, the Millennium Project has been scanning a variety of sources to produce monthly reports on emerging environmental issues with potential security or treaty implications. Over 2,000 items were identified since this work began in August 2002. * * * I call on Member States to clarify and expand international law on environmental protection in times of war. Existing legal instruments should be adapted to reflect the predominantly internal nature of today’s armed conflicts. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon International Day for Preventing the Exploitation of the Environment in War and Armed Conflict, 6 November 2009 While climate change alone does not cause conflict, it may act as an accelerant of instability or conflict, placing a burden to respond on civilian institutions and militaries around the world. 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review United States Department of Defense Chapter 9: Environmental Security 2 2010 State of the Future 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The traditional nation-centered security focus is expanding to a global one due to geopolitical shifts, the effects of climate change, environmental and energy security, and growing global interdependencies. Environmental security–related concerns are becoming defining factors in international political and military negotiations. The transnational nature of environmental security is triggering new forms of defense strategies and cooperation. Multipolar global political, economic, and military power, the increasing demand on natural resources, economic turmoil, population growth, the deepening gap between those who could cope with the effects of climate change and those could not, the accelerated rate of technological advancements, the growing strength of organized crime and terrorism, and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction all fuel uncertainty about the future of international security. These changes are so fast and complex that it is increasingly difficult to design realistic long-term strategies and impossible for any single nation to manage these changes alone. Since conflict and environmental degradation exacerbate each other, unless they are addressed together their scope and severity could expand. Environmental diplomacy increasingly contributes to confidence building, while nontraditional security issues––including environment, migration, and social development––have become standard aspects in security planning. The ability to identify environmental threats and crimes has been strengthened by increasingly powerful detection and monitoring technologies and by environmental jurisprudence supported by improved enforcement mechanisms. Environmental damages that people and organizations got away with in the past are less likely to escape exposure and punishment in the future. The Millennium Project defines environmental security as environmental viability for life support, with three sub-elements: • preventing or repairing military damage to the environment • preventing or responding to environmentally caused conflicts • protecting the environment due to its inherent moral value. This chapter presents a summary of recent events and emerging environmental security–related issues organized around this definition. Over the past several years, with support from the U.S. Army Environmental Policy Institute, The Millennium Project has been scanning a variety of sources to produce monthly reports on emerging environmental issues with potential security or treaty implications. More than 300 items have been identified during the past year and about 2,000 items since this work began in August 2002. The full text of the items and their sources, as well as other Millennium Project studies related to environmental security, are included in Chapter 9 on the CD and are available on The Millennium Project’s Web site, www.millennium-project.org. Chapter 9: Environmental Security 3 2010 State of the Future Preventing or Repairing Military Damage to the Environment The U.S. Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review 2010 specified climate change for the first time as a key issue “that will play a significant role in shaping the future security environment.” Many UK embassies have “climate security” position, and all regional security organizations, governments, and a growing number of international organizations and think tanks have global security implications of climate change on their agenda. Many other security leaders now recognize that climate change and environmental degradation are a threat multiplier with large- scale implications, affecting both resource-scarce and resource-abundant countries. While countries affected by scarcity might experience local social unrest, resource-abundant countries might experience increased immigration and exposure to extremism, terrorism, and organized crime. Military organizations increasingly integrate environment in conflict analysis and all phases of operations planning. The U.S. Army’s Strategy for the Environment shows military leadership in protecting the environment, increasing energy efficiency through procurement and operations, R&D centers of excellence, and the transfer of knowledge. Including environmental factors in military actions gives strategic advantages in combat and post-conflict operations, protects the health, safety, and security of the troops, and develops diplomatic relations and the confidence of local populations and neighboring countries, thus increasing the missions’ success. Security experts emphasize that energy and environmental standards should be considered in security- related reconstruction and stabilization activities (e.g., improved agricultural practices and alternative energy systems), along with information sharing to assess the future needs of individual communities or countries. UNEP reports that since the mid–twentieth century more than 90% of major armed conflicts took place in countries that contained biodiversity hotspots and over 80% occurred directly within a hotspot area, further threatening biodiversity. The Pacific Institute’s Water Conflict Chronology Map identifies more than 100 conflicts over the past 25 years that were water-related. While conflicts driven by factors related to natural resources and/or environmental degradation are twice as likely to return to violence or become “re-wars” within five years, UNEP notes that fewer than 25% of relevant peace agreements address environmental or resource aspects. The environment is also often used as a military tool—from bombing infrastructure to poisoning the water and destroying the ecosystem. Not only does environmental degradation contribute to conflict, it also prolongs it, impeding peacekeepers’ deployment in the area. Although Protocol 1 of the Geneva Conventions contains text protecting the natural environment, UNEP notes that there are no mechanisms to protect natural resources during armed conflict and no permanent international authority to monitor violations and to address liability and redress claims for environmental damage in those situations. There is also no agreement on definitions for “widespread,” “longlasting,” and “severe” or a standard definition of what constitutes a “conflict resource” or illegal resource exploitation and trade. Furthermore, the majority of international legal provisions protecting the environment during armed conflict— including the ICRC Guidelines on the Protection of the Environment during Armed Conflict Chapter 9: Environmental Security 4 2010 State of the Future (1994)—were designed for international armed conflicts, while the majority of today’s conflicts are internal; hence the legal instruments do not apply. UNEP recommends that the Permanent Court of Arbitration and its “Optional Rules for Conciliation of Disputes Relating to the Environment and/or Natural Resources” should be considered for addressing disputes related to environmental damage during armed conflict and that a summary report on the environmental impacts of armed conflicts should be presented annually to the UN General Assembly. There are proposals to, first, amend the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court to cover the use of certain weapons in international and non-international conflict situations and, second, expand the list of war crimes to include the use of chemical, biological, and some conventional weapons and anti-personnel mines, as well as bringing the crime of terrorism within the jurisdiction of the Court. An increasing number of vulnerable states that fail to overcome cultural, social, political, and economic barriers to successfully address environmental challenges make managing international crises more difficult. In Niger, for example, food insecurity that affects more than 7 million people and political instability (aggravated by the February 2010 coup d’état) exacerbate each other. The 2010 Environmental Performance Index reveals that most of the lower-ranked nations are also vulnerable states. Comparing world peace status (from the Global Peace Index) with potential security risks triggered by environmental issues could help address present vulnerabilities efficiently and avoid foreseeable ones. UNDP argues that environmental stresses challenge the Arab region’s security. Lebanon might lack fresh water by 2015, due to the interplay of several factors, including the 1975–90 civil war and years of political unrest, water rights disputes with Israel, weak water management, and inappropriate infrastructure, all of which are exacerbated by a growing population. Additionally, some transboundary rivers are not exploited due to their strategic locations—such as the Nahr al- Kabeer and Orontes shared by Lebanon and Syria and the Wazzani and Hasbani shared with Israel. An estimated 80% of conflicts in Yemen are over water. And if present trends continue, in five to seven years Sana’a could become the first waterless capital in the world. Water used in Yemen for agriculture accounts for about 90% of all consumption, and about 50% of it goes to growing qat (khat), a mildly narcotic plant. Since plantations are often controlled by the so-called qat mafia, offering farmers an alternative to qat would address critical water, food, and security situations together. The UN Mission assessment of the Gaza conflict (December 2008–January 2009) found evidence that both Israeli forces and Palestinian militants committed actions that could be violations of international law. The Mission assessed particularly the use of white phosphorus, fléchette missiles, DIME (dense inert metal explosive) munitions, and depleted uranium, and it suggested legal restriction on the use of these weapons. “It will take centuries to restore the natural environment of Iraq,” said Iraqi Environment Chapter 9: Environmental Security 5 2010 State of the Future Minister Nermeen Othman, referring to the environmental catastrophe caused by the conflict: unexploded bombs and 25 million land mines littering the land, hazardous waste and leaking poison from destroyed factories, chemical waste, rubble and trash, and chemical weapons and depleted uranium munitions that have created 105 contaminated areas. More than 60% of Iraq’s fresh water is polluted. Environmental degradation and hazardous ordnance leftovers in many post-conflict areas around the world threaten the livelihoods and health of current and future generations and may constitute an impediment for lasting peace. Leaking abandoned ordnance since World War II and dangerously high levels of heavy metals and other toxic chemicals related to military exercises are contaminating the oceans, endangering the marine ecosystem and human health. The Convention on Cluster Munitions enters into force in August 2010, two years after its adoption. It bans the use, production, and transfer of cluster munitions and sets deadlines for stockpile destruction and clearance of contaminated land, as well as prescribing responsibilities toward affected communities. As of mid-2010, 34 countries had ratified and 106 had signed the convention. This sets a precedent on how a “coalition of the willing” can successfully lead to international regulations, and it might trigger similar negotiations and be emulated for other weapons. In the meantime, concerns over nuclear threats persist. The International Atomic Energy Agency reports that between 1993 and the end of 2009, the Illicit Trafficking Database recorded 1,784 nuclear trafficking incidents, ranging from illegal disposal efforts to nuclear material of unknown provenance. As of the end of 2009, 109 IAEA member states participated in the reporting program. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, supported by a consortium of national and international organizations, are taking measures to reduce the threat posed by nuclear and hazardous material left over from the Soviet era. Some 800 million tons of radioactive and toxic waste are stored in vulnerable depots, threatening environmental contamination and specific contamination and increasing “dirty bomb” threats. With the entry into force of the Pelindaba Treaty for an African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone, nuclear weapons will be banned throughout the entire southern hemisphere. The other regional agreements banning nuclear weapons in their area are the Antarctic Treaty, the Treaty of Tlatelolco (for Latin America and the Caribbean), the Treaty of Rarotonga (for the South Pacific), the Treaty of Bangkok (for Southeast Asia), and the Treaty of Semipalatinsk (for Central Asia). Representatives of the Japanese and Republic of Korea parliaments held the first in a series of regional parliamentary dialogues on creating a Northeast Asian Nuclear-Weapons- Free Zone, while Egypt and other Arab countries are promoting the creation of a Middle East Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone. The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review aims to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security strategy. A bill was submitted to the Belgian Senate in 2009 on the manufacturing, fixing, sale, shipping, and possession of nuclear arms. The new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was signed by the US and Russia (together holding more than 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons), requiring each to reduce their strategic nuclear arsenal, although critics note that the treaty does not address the disposal of the nuclear material Chapter 9: Environmental Security 6 2010 State of the Future contained in the weapons. Global Zero is a new effort launched by international leaders to eliminate all nuclear weapons worldwide within 25 years. The UN Security Council resolution aiming to advance global nuclear disarmament stipulates that non-compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty would be referred directly to the Security Council rather than to the IAEA. While the chemical and nuclear weapons conventions have enforcement mechanisms, the Biological Weapons Convention does not, and negotiations on this aspect are at a deadlock, although they are expected to continue at the 2011 review conference. The report of the Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism warns that by 2013 an attack is likely to occur somewhere in the world involving a weapon of mass destruction, most probably a biological attack. New technologies are offering improved detection, cleanup, monitoring, and surveillance possibilities. Intelligent battlefield robots will have elements of the rules of engagement and the Geneva Convention built into their programming. A NASA project tested the concept of a network of rugged, autonomous, environment-sensing “spiderbots” that can be placed into a hazardous environment to communicate among themselves and with the outside world, including satellites, to monitor an environmental situation. Ultra-sensitive portable chemical and biological devices offer increasing accuracy in detection, monitoring, and cleanup, with rapid response time. However, future autonomous robotic weapon systems are increasing vulnerability and concern over possible catastrophes. The development of synthetic biology, cognitive science, nanotechnology, electromagnetic pulses, and other high-tech advances, combined with the availability of information and low-cost components necessary to produce WMDs as well as the increase of terrorism and social unrest (often exacerbated by environmental factors), are increasing the threat of terrorism and SIMAD (a single individual massively destructive). “E- bombs” based on electromagnetic pulses are capable of destroying the electronics in civilian aircraft, suitcase-sized electronic warfare devices can disable the power grid of an entire region, and research on computer-mediated telepathy such as Silent Talk might one day be used to intercept and distort thoughts. After land, sea, air, and space, cyberspace became the “fifth battlespace” on the agenda of security experts. The disruption of critical infrastructure such as water or electricity by cyberattacks in an IT-dependent world calls for exceptional strategies. Security experts call for a new legal and policy framework for addressing cybersecurity challenges—cybercrime, cyberespionage and reconnaissance, and cyber-leveraged war. Preventing or Responding to Environmentally Caused Conflicts The UN identifies five channels through which climate change can have security implications: impacts on livelihoods and vulnerable people, economic development, population migration and/or conflict over scarce resources, displacement of whole communities due to sea level rise and consequent statelessness, and access to internationally shared resources. Chapter 9: Environmental Security 7 2010 State of the Future A study assessing quantitative links between climate change and the risk of civil war in sub- Saharan Africa found that between 1980 and 2002, the incidence of conflicts across the continent rose by nearly 50% with a 1°C temperature increase in a given year. Using these assumptions and 20 global climate models, the researchers warn that without swift mitigation action, the incidence of African civil wars could increase 55% by 2030 relative to 1990. The Pacific Institute notes that a pattern of localized conflict is likely to emerge in sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, India, China, Pakistan, and Burma in coming decades, although “water war” or full-scale interstate warfare triggered by water is unlikely. It warns that terrorist groups could start to view water infrastructure as valuable targets as tensions rise over water’s availability. In addition, in countries like Pakistan, discontentment with the West could intensify as water becomes scarcer, which could help extremists with recruitment. Weather pattern changes observed now in some parts of the world were not expected until 2020, and “worst case” scenarios are already becoming reality. UNEP notes that global average sea level rise was 3.4 mm/year over the past 15 years, 80% above the IPCC forecasts. According to NOAA, the 2000–09 decade was the warmest since instrumental measurements of temperatures began in the 1880s. The Met Office notes that in 2010 a new El Niño warming period started, and the sun should also begin to brighten, as part of its 11-year fluctuation cycle (in 2009 it was at the bottom of the cycle). It forecasts that by 2060, the global average temperature could rise by 4°C (7.2°F) unless sound greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies are implemented. Satellite measurements reveal that the Arctic Ocean’s permanent ice cover around the North Pole has thinned by more than 40% since 2004. Experts are therefore reassessing the timing of when the Arctic would be ice-free in the summer. Some estimates that the “northeast passage” for shipping around Russia’s Arctic coast and across the North Pole will be opened within a decade. The route through previously inaccessible Russian waters would cut sailing times between Rotterdam in the Netherlands and Yokohama in Japan by 40%, while also providing a safer and “pirate-free” route for global shipping. Circumpolar countries are actively expanding their scientific, economic, and military presence in the Arctic due to the eventual availability of massive oil and gas reserves. The number of people around the world needing humanitarian assistance due to natural catastrophes triggered by climate change might increase from 250 million today to more than 375 million by 2015. Therefore, the UK Government announced that it would recommend a doubling of the UN relief funds budget from the current $500 million to $1 billion, along with a reconsideration of the entire system. The World Bank notes that poor nations will bear 75–80% of the cost of floods, increased desertification, and other disasters caused by global warming, and it estimates that by 2030, developing countries will need $75 billion annually for adaptation and another $400 billion for low-carbon technology development. The EU estimates that €100 billion ($135 billion) a year by 2020 would cost-effectively address climate change. Countries in Africa and South Asia might lose as much as 5% of their GDP if temperatures rise just 2°C above pre-industrial levels. The UN is setting up a Global Impact and Vulnerability Chapter 9: Environmental Security 8 2010 State of the Future Alert System to help poorer countries such as those in the Pacific region deal with the combined effects of the global economic crisis and climate change. The Global Climate Risk Index 2010 compiled by Germanwatch shows that the top 10 countries most affected in the past 20 years by extremes of climate are Bangladesh, Myanmar, Honduras, Vietnam, Nicaragua, Haiti, India, the Dominican Republic, the Philippines, and China. The small island developing states, in addition to vulnerability, are concerned about lack of any bilateral or multilateral agreements for eventual relocation, as well as sovereignty status. If current trends continue, most glaciers from the mountains of tropical Africa will disappear by 2030, and those from the Pyrenees by 2050. Chinese climatologists report that temperatures in Tibet have risen by an average 0.32ºC (0.58ºF) per decade since 1961, when meteorological records began, which is considerably higher than the global average of 0.2ºC (0.36ºF) per decade. The Africa Factbook 2009 by the Global Footprint Network warns that if current population and consumption trends continue, Africa’s Ecological Footprint will exceed its biocapacity within the next 20 years. Since 70% of fresh water is trapped in glaciers, once they are gone the situation for human survival will become critical. According to the World Economic Forum, almost 4 billion people will live in areas of high water stress by 2030. In order to feed 9.1 billion people by 2050, world food production should increase by 70% and withdrawal of water for irrigation by almost 11%, notes FAO. According to some assessments, 38% of the world area, in 8 out of 15 existing eco- regions, is at risk of desertification due to unsustainable land use practices. While genetically engineered seeds adapted to a harsher climate could help increase yields, researchers warn that growing corporate control over seeds is reducing the diversity of traditional seed varieties and traits that help farmers adapt to the effects of climate change, jeopardizing poor farmers’ livelihoods and strongly influencing food prices. Additionally, even if all global biofuels targets were to be met, food prices could still rise by an additional 76% by 2020 and force an extra 600 million people into hunger, warns ActionAid. According to the Environmental Justice Foundation, nearly 10% of the world’s population is at risk of displacement by climate change, and up to 150 million “climate refugees” might move to other countries by 2050. Tuvalu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, the Marshall Islands, the Maldives, and some of the Lesser Antilles are all in danger of losing a significant part of their land in the next 50 years, while countries that could see large movements of people include Bangladesh, Kenya, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, Yemen, Ethiopia, Chad, and Rwanda. Asteroid-comet hazard and international legal aspects of counteracting the impact hazard are also rising on the international security agenda. In March 2009 an asteroid missed Earth by 77,000 kilometers, 80% closer to the planet than our moon is. If it had hit Earth, it would have wiped out all life on 800 square kilometers. No one knew it was coming. NASA already has a Near-Earth Object Program Office, and Italy and Spain cooperate on NEODYS (Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site). Participants in the Russian State Duma hearings on planetary security stated that it was time for Russia to supplement its national space program with the study of the asteroid hazard and possible ways to protect Earth. Modeling systems are improving, but a better coordination of data, science, research, policy, and Chapter 9: Environmental Security 9 2010 State of the Future funds allocation is needed to address the complexity of the effects of climate change adequately and to design satisfactory adaptation, mitigation, and security strategies. The Millennium Project is developing a Climate Change Situation Room as a collective intelligence connecting science, policymaking, relevant discourse, technologies, and actions for addressing climate change. Protecting the Environment Due to Its Inherent Moral Value The World Resources Institute reports that there are about 350 environmental courts in 41 countries; about half of them were created in the last five years. International lawsuits for environmental crimes are increasing, including those based on damages due to climate change, which is a new phase in the international environmental legal system. Bolivia’s President, Evo Morales, is promoting the creation of an international court on environmental crimes and a “universal proposal for the rights of mother Earth.” There are more than 700 multilateral environmental agreements. The focus of international negotiations is switching from designing new treaties to reinforcing existing ones and strengthening international environmental governance. The first simultaneous meeting of the Conferences of the Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam, and Stockholm Conventions was held February 2010 to foster synergies among the three main treaties that address hazardous chemicals and waste. This synchronization could be a test case for improved global environmental governance by increasing coherence in decisionmaking and monitoring at international, regional, and national levels. Integration is also initiated among regional regulations. For example, China, Japan, and South Korea have set the broad framework for adapting their chemicals regulatory systems to the EU REACH system. Evaluation mechanisms of the effectiveness of agreements are improving, and increasingly powerful analytical tools are being created to compare national environmental status. New international watchdog bodies have emerged and others are being proposed to assist legal action against environmental crimes, and indexes are being created to measure progress and assess policy efficiency or to set priorities. Although the UN Conference on Climate Change held in Copenhagen failed to extend or replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, it produced athe non-binding Copenhagen Accord that calls for international cooperation to limit atmospheric CO2 to make sure the global temperature does not rise more than 2ºC. In response, about 60 countries have submitted national plans; however, the Climate Interactive team estimates the current proposals would still cause the average temperature to rise by approximately 3.9°C (7.0°F) by 2100. Some suggest amending the Montreal Protocol or similar existing international regulations to cover greenhouse gases in order to speed international cooperation. Since the oceans absorb approximately a third of CO2 emissions, they will continue to become more acidic unless human-made CO2 emissions are substantially curbed or controlled by technological means. If current trends continue, 10% of the Arctic Ocean will be corrosively acidic by 2018, 50% will reach that condition by 2050, and the whole ocean will be acidic by the end of the century. In the meantime, global warming is changing ocean salinity, making some regions saltier while other are getting fresher, according to Australian CSIRO Wealth from Chapter 9: Environmental Security 10