Ensuring the Quality, Credibility, and Relevance of U.S. Justice Statistics Panel to Review the Programs of the Bureau of Justice Statistics Robert M. Groves and Daniel L. Cork, Editors Committee on National Statistics Committee on Law and Justice Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, DC www.nap.edu THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, NW Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Gov- erning Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a con- sortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (No. SBR-0453930). The project that is the subject of this report was supported by an allocation from the U.S. Department of Justice to the National Science Foun- dation under this grant. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 13: 978-0-309-13910-6 International Standard Book Number 10: 0-309-13910-4 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Washington, DC 20001; (202) 334-3096; Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2009 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2009). Ensuring the Quality, Cred- ibility, and Relevance of U.S. Justice Statistics. Panel to Review the Programs of the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Robert M. Groves and Daniel L. Cork, eds. Committee on National Statistics and Committee on Law and Justice, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. 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Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org PANEL TO REVIEW THE PROGRAMS OF THE BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS ROBERT M. GROVES (Chair), Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland WILLIAM G. BARRON, JR., Consultant, Princeton University and U.S. Department of Commerce WILLIAM CLEMENTS, School of Graduate Studies and Department of Criminal Justice, Norwich University, and Vermont Center for Justice Research ∗ PAMELA K. LATTIMORE, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina JANET L. LAURITSEN, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri–St. Louis COLIN LOFTIN, School of Criminal Justice, University at Albany, State University of New York JAMES P. LYNCH, John Jay College of Criminal Justice RUTH D. PETERSON, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University TRIVELLORE E. RAGHUNATHAN, Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan, and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland STEVEN R. SCHLESINGER, Statistics Division, Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts WESLEY G. SKOGAN, Department of Political Science and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University BRUCE D. SPENCER, Department of Statistics and Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University BRUCE WESTERN, Department of Sociology, Harvard University DANIEL L. CORK, Study Director CAROL V. PETRIE, Senior Program Officer AGNES E. GASKIN, Administrative Assistant ∗ Resigned from the panel April 2, 2007. v COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2008–2009 WILLIAM F. EDDY (Chair), Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University KATHARINE G. ABRAHAM, Department of Economics and Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland ALICIA CARRIQUIRY, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University WILLIAM DUMOUCHEL, Phase Forward, Inc., Waltham, Massachusetts JOHN C. HALTIWANGER, Department of Economics, University of Maryland V. JOSEPH HOTZ, Department of Economics, Duke University KAREN KAFADAR, Department of Statistics, Indiana University, Bloomington DOUGLAS S. MASSEY, Department of Sociology, Princeton University SALLY MORTON, Statistics and Epidemiology, RTI International, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina JOSEPH NEWHOUSE, Division of Health Policy Research and Education, Harvard University SAMUEL H. PRESTON, Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania HAL STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine ROGER TOURANGEAU, Joint Program in Survey Methodology, University of Maryland, and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan ALAN ZASLAVSKY, Department of Health Care Policy, Harvard Medical School CONSTANCE F. CITRO, Director vi COMMITTEE ON LAW AND JUSTICE 2008–2009 JAMES Q. WILSON (Chair), University of California, Los Angeles (emeritus) PHILIP J. COOK (Vice Chair), Terry Sanford Institute of Public Policy, Duke University DAVID H. BAYLEY, School of Criminal Justice, University of Albany, State University of New York RICHARD J. BONNIE, Institute of Law, Psychiatry, and Public Policy, University of Virginia Law School ROBERT D. CRUTCHFIELD, Department of Sociology, University of Washington STEVEN N. DURLAUF, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison ARTHUR S. GOLDBERGER, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin–Madison ROBERT L. JOHNSON, Pediatric and Clinical Psychiatry and Director of Adolescent and Young Adult Medicine, New Jersey Medical School GARY LAFREE, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland JOHN H. LAUB, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland GLENN LOURY, Department of Economics, Brown University TRACEY L. MEARES, School of Law, University of Chicago TERRIE E. MOFFITT, Institute of Psychiatry, University of London RUTH PETERSON, Department of Sociology, Ohio State University RICHARD ROSENFELD, Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Missouri–St. Louis ROBERT J. SAMPSON, Department of Sociology, Harvard University JEREMY TRAVIS, John Jay College of Criminal Justice CHRISTY VISHER, Justice Policy Center, Urban Institute DAVID WEISBURD, Hebrew University Law School, Jerusalem, Israel CAROL PETRIE, Director vii Acknowledgments HE PANEL to Review the Programs of the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the Committee on National Statistics (CNSTAT) is pleased to sub- T mit this final report on the programs and priorities of the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The work that leads to such a report always repre- sents a collectivity—a devoted and talented staff of the National Research Council (NRC) and a set of volunteers, both panel members and those who met with the panel. Finally, the agency seeking advice from CNSTAT is key to the success of the endeavor. The staff of BJS has been exceptionally receptive to our external review of the agency’s programs. We benefited greatly from the energy and enthusi- asm of BJS Director Jeffrey Sedgwick during the course of our study, partic- ularly given his added responsibilities during the latter half of our work. In January 2008 he took on the duties of acting assistant attorney general for the Office of Justice Programs, the parent division of BJS, while retaining the BJS directorship. He was subsequently nominated as assistant attorney gen- eral in April 2008 and confirmed in October 2008, serving in that capacity until the end of the Bush administration. The other members of BJS’s senior leadership were also unstinting in their support. Deputy Director Maureen Henneberg provided considerable assistance as the lead liaison between BJS and the panel, and BJS Senior Statistical Advisor Allen Beck gave greatly of his time and expertise in interacting with the panel and led a wide-ranging discussion of BJS data collections required by the Prison Rape Elimination Act. Patrick Campbell, special assistant to Director Sedgwick, also partici- pated in the public sessions of the panel’s meetings. Michael Rand, chief of victimization statistics, deserves particular credit for leading a thorough and extremely useful review of the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) at the panel’s first meeting. Program managers and BJS staff briefed the panel on their work and fielded numerous questions about their designated subject ix