ENCYCLOPAEDIA OF GLOBAL WARMING (Vol. 4) Editors M.H. SYED M.M. KHAN Himalaya Books Pvt. Ltd. 'Ramdoot', Dr. Bholeroo Marg. Glrgaon, Mumbai -400 004 Tel: (022) 23863863. Fox: (022) 23877178 Email: [email protected] © No part of this book shall be reproduced, rerpinted or translated for any purpose whatsoever ~iithout prior permission of the publisher in writing. First Edition : 2008 Published by : Mrs. Meena Pandey for HIMALAYA PUBLISHING HOUSE, "Ramdoot", Dr. Bhalerao Marg, Girgaon, Mumbai-400 004. 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Road, Navrang Pura, Ahemdabad-380 009 Mobile: 9327324149 Eranakulam No. 391104A, Lakshmi Apartment, Karikkamuri Cross Road Eranakulam, Cochin-622 0 II, Kerala Phone: 0484-2378012, 2378016 Printed at A to Z Printers, Daryaganj, New Delhi-llOoo2 Contents 1. Gases of Greenhouses 1 Verge in Climate Change • Verge in the Capacity of Adaptation • Change in Marine Currents • Danger to the Ecosystems • Greenhouse Gases in Industries • Emissions of Greenhouse Gases 2. Hole in Ozone Layer 43 Ozone vs. Climate Change • Significance of Dobson Unit • Transmitted Mutations • Role of Stratosphere • Potential Ozone Layer Recovery • Effect of Hydrogen Economy • Ozone Consuming Chemicals • The Synoposis • Different Ozone Holes • Theories of Antarctic Ozone Hole 3. Earth's Atmosphere 93 Ozone in Atmosphere • Significance of Montreal Protocol • Significance of Kyoto Protocol • Government's Position • Significance of Exosphere • Altitude Variation Calculation • Ionospheric Disruptions • Disconnected Scatter Radars • Role of Exosphere • Role of Tropopause • RoleofStratopause • Role of Turbopause • Layers and Temperature of the Earth • Ozonosphere Layer • Effects of Ultraviolet Light • Particles of Stratosphere • Temperature of Stratosphere 4. J<inetics of Atmosphere 179 Kinetic Atmosphere on Earth • Occurrence of Hydrostatic Equilibrium • Instability of Kelvin-Helmholtz • Patterns of Atmosphere • Lineage and Explanation • Organisation of Cartesian • Cylindrical Organisation • Definition of Potential Vorticity· Gradient Pressure • Primary Equations • Predicting Temperature • Number of Rossby • Weather of the Space • Efforts of Modellir.g • Geophysical Research • What is a Thermal Wind? • Equation of Vorticity • Dynamics of Fluid • Fall Back Rate • Implication of Meteorology • Mathematical Explanation • Electricity in Atmosphere • Baroclinic Imbalance • Convective Imbalance • Significance of Coriolis Effect • Role of Coriolis in Meteorology • Inertial Surrounding • Terrestrial Impact • Impact of Sun's Angle on Climate • Equations of Euler • Significance of Geostrophic Wind • Role of Modelling • Wave of Gravity • Outer Space vs. Inner Space • Layers of the Atmosphere • Cavity between Earth and Ionosphere • Tide in Atmosphere 5. Motion in Atmosphere 231 System of Earth and Atmosphere • Winds from the Top • Conditions of Surface Pressure • Belts of Global Wind • Significance of Trade Winds • Role of Equatorial Westerlies • Role of Polar Easterlies • Horizontal Motion Laws • Gradient Pressure • Significance of Geostrophic Wind • Receptive Acceleration • Forces of Friction • Significance of Local Winds • Winds of Mountains and Valleys • Breezes of Land and Sea • Vertical Fluctuation of Pressure Systems • Patterns of Mean Upper-air 6. Moisture in Atmosphere 253 Change in Adiabatic Temperature • Formation of Cloud • Nuclei Contraction • Precipitation Formation • Theories of Collision • The Dryness • Definition of Evaporation • Moisture , Capacity • Conveying Moisture • The Contraction 7. Importance of Biosphere 279 Significance of Geosphere • Mechanisms for Control • System of Homeostasis • Significance of Hydrosphere • Pressure from Hydrostatic State • Abstract Idea of Biosphere • Latitudinal Biosphere of Earth • Significance of Crya sph ere 8. Extreme Climate Changes 313 Load on Human Communities • Help of Increasing Soil Carbon ~ Water Resource Change • Natural Ecosystem Changes • Impact on Agriculture and Ranching Bibliography 321 Gases of Greenhouses The two main gases responsible for the greenhouse effect (and not only its recent increase) are: • Water vapour (HP), • Carbon dioxide (C0 2), There are others such gases, and even many others. Some of them are "natural", which means that they were present in the atmosphere before the apparition of men, and other can be called" artificial" , in the sense that they are present in the atmosphere only because of us. Beyond water and CO the other important "natural" greenhouse , 2 gases are: • Methane (CH which is nothing else than the cooking gas we use ), 4 in our stoves; • Nitrous oxide (NP), the scholarly name for .... .laughing gas (which is not so much amusing here); • Ozone (03)' which molecule comprises 3 oxygen atoms (the molecules of the" regular" oxygen gas have only 2 atoms of oxygen). When we say that these gases are" natural", it does not mean that men did not playa role in the amount we can find in the atmosphere today. It just means that there are also natural sources (or natural cycles). For these gases, humanity" simply" adds its part to natural emissions and therefore significantly increases their concentration in the air. 2 Encyclopaedia of Global Warming (Vol. 4) All these "natural" gases are taken into account in the international negociations (like the Kyoto Protocol, for example), except ozone, because as it has no direct emissions. Ozone results from a subtle chemistry taking place in the air, involving "precursors" which are regular pollutants -NO ' x hydrocarbons -with the help of sun rays. Calculating -even roughly -the amount of ozone emitted by a country is today clearly very difficult. Verge in Climate Change A process is said to have a threshold if there exists a given level of perturbation - called a threshold - under which the effect is proportional to the perturbation, and over which things evolve in a totally different way. A good example is a rubber: let's pull it a little, and it lenghthens. Let's pull it a little more, and it lengthens a little more. We can prolongate this effect a little while: any additional little traction applied to this rubber will result in a little additional lengthening, until the rubber suddenly breaks. We then have passed beyond a threshold: a little increase of the perturbation has generated a brutal-and sometimes hardly foreseeable in a precise way-change of the nature of the consequence (breaking instead of lengthening), and, in addition, in the chosen example, the change is not reversible (we cannot stick back together the two bits of the rubber). Our climate is full of such processes with thresholds, for which a little change of the perturbation may lead to abrupt and massive changes of the nature of the consequence, and we generally don't know precisely sometimes not at all-when and where a component is susceptible to "break down", that is to start to behave in a very different way from what we are accustomed to. We now start to know that it could be the case for marine currents, for the marine life depending on corals, or the response of polar ice caps to the ultimate temperature rise. But for most climate processes the thresholds are not necessarily known, and when they are qualitatively, there are seldom precise quantitative estimates. In addition a given temperature increase can be without major consequences after a century, but lead to massive effects later on: to know whether, for this or that component of the climatic machine, we have passed beyond a threshold or not, we also need to know what time horizon ;is associated to the question. -As a consequence, it is not possible, today, to say that there exists a temperature rise below which we would be guaranteed against any major problem, but over which we would suddenly start to be subject to considerable risks. Gases of Greenhouses 3 No scientist can state that it is reasonable not to go over a temperature rise ofl.63°C, that as long as we don't cross this threshold we are guaranteed against any catastrophe, but that as soon as we reach a 1.64°C the Apocalypse is for tomorrow, or that a CO concentration of 435 ppmv is 2 harmless, but not of 436 ppmv. Verge in the Capacity of Adaptation What we call a risk does not only result from a change in environmental conditions, but depends also on our faculty - or absence of faculty - to face the said change. A stone that falls on our head does not mean the same risk whether we wear a helmet or not. If we go back to climate, a limited diminution of the agricultural output resulting from a climate change is not a major "risk" for a country like France, that produces way over its own consumption, but will possibly be qualified as such for India or China if it happens there today. More generally speaking, if we try to evaluate the risks attached to a climate change that might happen in 50 or 200 years, we need to be able to describe not only the involved climate modifications or their direct consequences (are we talking of the sea-level of the marine currents of possible diseases?) but we must also guess what means will be at the disposal of humanity at that time (how much energy will remain out of the present abundance? will there still be forests or natural resources that might held to adapt? etc.). Guessing the latter is much harder than speculating on the future of the climate. In particular, what fundamentally governs our aptitude to change the world, as it has done so in the past and will do so in the future, and therefore conditions our aptitude to face a given evolution, is abundant energy. It's this abundance that allows us to build roads and use trucks to carry food (grown with a lot of energy, also !) from places where it grows, that allows to resist to cold or to heat, that allows to produce vaccines, tools, medications, that enables us to be mobile in mass, etc. And all these things resulting from abundant energy concur to make us resistant to many adverse evolutions. But whether energy will still be abundant-or cheap, which is about the same - in 50 years is a vast debate ! For fossil fuels, for example, a simple prolongation of present trends over 50 years leads to a total . exhaustion of all proven reserves (coal included), without even mentioning the associated deterioration of the climate that would result from the freeing in the atmosphere of all the corresponding CO , 2