ENCYCLOPAEDIA OF GLOBAL WARMING (Vol. 2) Editors M.H. SYED M.M. KHAN Himalaya Books Pvt. Ltd. 'Ramdoot·. Dr. Bhalerao Marg. Girgaon. Mumbai -400 004 Tel: (022) 23863863. Fax: (022) 23877178 Email: [email protected] @ No part of this book shall be reproduced, rerpinted or translated for any purpose whatsoever 'Without prior permission of the publisher in writing. First Edition : 2008 Published by Mra. Meena Pandey for HIMALAYA PUBLISHING HOUSE, "Ramdoot", Dr. Bhalerao Marg, Girgaon, Mumbai-4oo 004. Phones: 23860170/23863863 Fax: 022-23877178 Email: [email protected] Website: www.himpub.com Branch Offices Delhi "Pooja Apartments", 4-B, Murari Lal Street, Ansari Road, Darya Ganj, New Delhi-II 0 002 Phones: 23270392, 23278631 Reliance: 30180392 to 396 Fax: 011-23256286 Email: [email protected] Nagpur Kundanla1 Chandak Industrial Estate, Ghat Road, Nagpur-440 018 Phone: 2721216, Telefax: 0712-2721215 Bangalore No. 1611 (old 1211), 1st floor, Next to Hotel Highland, Madhava Nagar, Race Course Road, Bangalore-560 001 Phones: 22281541, 22385461 Fax: 080-2286611 Hyderabad No. 2-2-1 16712H, 1st Floor, Near Railway Bridge, Tilak Nagar, Main Road, Hyderabad-500 044 Phone: 26501745, Fax: 040-27560041 Chennai No.2, Rama Krishna Street, North Usman Road, T-Nagar, Chennai-600 017 Phone: 28144004, 28144005 Mobile: 09380460419 Pune No. 527, "Laksha" Apartment, First Floor, Mehunpura, Shaniwarpeth, (Near Prabhat Theatre), Pune-411 030 Phone: 020-24496333, 24496333, 24496323 Lucknow C-43, Sector C, Ali Gunj, Lucknow -226 024 Phone: 0522-4047594 Ahmedabad 114, Shail, 1st Floor, Opp. Madhu Sudan House, C.G. Road, Navrang Pura, Ahemdabad-380 009 Mobile: 9327324149 EranakuIam No. 39/104A, Lakshmi Apartment, Karikkamuri Cross Road Eranakulam, Cochin-622 011, Kerala Phone: 0484-2378012, 2378016 Printed at A to Z Printers, Daryaganj, New Delhi-110002 Contents 1. Impacts of Global Warming 1 Impact on Ecosystems • Impact on Oceans • Impact on Weather • Expansion of Evaporation • Local Climate: Destabilisation • Terrific Weather • Global Warming Further • Glacier Drawback 2. Structure of the Climate 81 Significance of Human System • Human's Role • Options of Mitigation • Supply of Energy • Significance of Clouds • Influence of Thermohaline Circulation • Role of Global Carbon Cycle • Role of Marine Carbon System • Planetary System • Expectations in a Chaotic System • Terrific Circumstances • Classified Variability 3. Atmospheric Typography and Energy 255 Atmospheric Impact • Cloud Cover Impact • Impact of Latitude • Impact of Land and Sea • Impact of Elevation • Long Wave Radiation • Horizontal Channel of Heat • Atmospheric Layering • Significance of Troposphere • Role of Stratosphere • Best Atmosphere • Atmospheric Typography • Differentiation with Height • Aggregate of the Atmosphere • Full Pressure • Radiation by Sun • Solar Distance • Duration of the Day • Differentiation with Latitude and Season • Differentiation with Time 4. Impact in India 277 Delinquencies of Global Warming • Impacts on Economy • Further Trends • Real Danger • Heating of the Earth • Impact on Environment Bibliography 333 Impacts of Global Warming The predicted effects for the environment and for human life are numerous and varied. The main effect is an increasing global average temperature. From this flow a variety of resulting effects, namely, rising sea-levels, altered patterns of agriculture, increased extreme weather events, and the expansion of the range of tropical diseases. In some cases, the effects may already be occurring, although it is generally difficult to attribute specific natural phenomena to long-term global warming. A summary of possible effects and our current understanding can be found in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group II; a discussion of projected climate changes is found in Working Group 1. The more recent IPCC fourth Assessment Report outlines the latest agreed international thinking. Scientific and business groups in individual countries are also producing reports on the effects of global warming on their nation, such as in Australia. Proposed responses to the effects of global warming include mitigation and adaptation. Projected climate changes due to global warming have the potential to lead to future large-scale and possibly irreversible changes in our climate resulting in impacts at continental and global scales. 2 Encyclopaedia of Global Warming (Vol. 2) Examples of projected climate changes include: • Significant slowing of the ocean circulation that transports warm water to the North Atlantic, • Large reductions in the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheets, • accelerated global warming due to carbon cycle feedbacks in the terrestrial biosphere, and • Releases of terrestrial carbon from permafrost regions and methane from hydrates in coastal sediments. The likelihood, magnitude, and timing of many of these changes is uncertain. However, the probability of one or more of these changes occurring is likely to increase with the rate, magnitude, and duration of climate change. Additionally, the United States National Academy of Sciences has warned, "greenhouse warming and other human alterations of the earth system may increase the possibility of large, abrupt, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events. Future abrupt changes cannot be predicted with confidence, and climate surprises are to be expected" . It is not possible to be certain whether there will be any positive benefits of global warming. What is known is that some significant negative impacts are projected, and that these projections drive most of the concern about global warming, as well as attempts to mitigate it or adapt to its effects. Most scientists agree, however, that the negative effects will outweigh the positive effects. Most of the consequences of global warming would result from one of three physical changes: sea-level rise, higher local temperatures, and changes in rainfall patterns. Sea-level is generally expected to rise 18-59 cm by the end of the century. Agriculturally, Dr. Sylvan H. Wittwer believes that global warming is good for the human race, because it helps increase food production. "The most determinant factor in agriculture production is climate. History reveals that for food production, warming is better than cooling." Dr. Wittwer says that carbon dioxide is an essential nutrient for the production of food, and food is one of the most important things in our lives. As the temperature rises, more farmland will be open towards the poles and the length of the growing season will also lengthen. With all the people who go hungry each day, Dr. Wittwer believes food production should be one of our main concerns. Dr. Wittwer is the scientific pioneer who conducted the original studies on atmospheric CO 2 enhancement of the production of food crops. Impacts of Global Warming 3 Increasing amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global warming could also lead to more health concerns. A statement released from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said, "Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life." As temperature increase towards the poles, similar to farmland, insects and other pests migrate towards Earth's poles. These insects and pests could be allowed to migrate up to 550 km or 550 miles. Some insects carry diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. Thus, an increase in these particular insects and pests closer to the poles results in an increase in these diseases. This could lead to 50 to 80 million additional cases of Malaria annually, a 10-15 per cent increase. "Malaria and dengue fever are already beginning to spread pole wards", said Jane Lubchenco, past President of American Association for the advancement of science. The most obvious health effect is directly from the heat itself. With an increase in heat waves, there will be more people who will suffer from heatstroke, heart attacks and other ailments aggravated by the heat. According to the EPA, "In July 1995, a heat wave killed more than 700 people in the Chicago area alone". If this is happening already from heat, imagine what would occur in the future with global warming. Hot conditions could also cause smoke particles and noxious gases to linger in the air and accelerate chemical reactions that generate other pollutants. This leads to an increase in risk of respiratory diseases like bronchitis and asthma. Global warming causes the oceans to warm and expand, inducing a rise in sea-level. Eventually, the rising waters could take away land inhabited by people, forcing them to move. Dr. Robert Buddemieir, of the Kansas Geological Survey said, "Bangledesh is massively populated, achingly poor, and something like a sixth of the country is going to go away". Bangladesh cannot afford to build barriers· to hold back the sea, so people would have to move inland, increasing the popUlations density and leading to an increase in hunger and disease. The Maldive Islands in the Indian Ocean have the same problem They are a nation of 1190 islands with an average height of about 1.5 metres above sea-level. If the sea-level rises, more than 200,000 people will have to abandon their homes. Fossil fuels, chiefly coal, oil and natural gas, now supply most of the world's energy. Only a small amount comes from renewable sources, which do not release gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. lf we could get more of our energy from renewable sources, we could reduce the 4 Encyclopaedia of Global Warming (Vol. 2) amount of fossil fuels we burn. By the year 2050, renewable sources could provide forty per cent of the energy needed in the world. Use of renewable energy can help both to slow global warming and to reduce air pollution. These fossil fuels, coal, oil, and natural gas also emit greenhouse gases when burned. Coal emits high amounts of greenhouse gases, and the world may be supplied with enough of it to last over 100 years. Oil emits high amounts of greenhouse gases and also other types of air pollution harmful to the environment. The world's oil supply is also estimated to last over 100 years. Natural Gas is the lowest of all fossil fuels in greenhouse gas emissions; supplies are projected to last over 100 years. The world's leading scientists project that during our children's lifetimes global warming will raise the average temperature of the planet by 2 to 6 degrees Fahrenheit, or 1-3.5 degree Celsius. In contrast the Earth is only 5 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit or about 3-6 degrees Celsius warmer today than it was 10,000 years ago during the last ice age. Man-made global warming is occurring much faster than at any other time in at least the last 10,000 years. This information would suggest that the warming Earth is experiencing now is not a natural phenomenon, but caused by the increased concentration of greenhouse gases. While evidence is strong to support the notion of human contribution to the global warming problem, an alternative view is that recent global warming is a natural occurrence. Some theorists believe that the Earth's climate works in a cycle, cooling, and then warming itself. Scientists point out the fact that 75 million years ago, the Earth's average temperature was ten degrees higher than it is today. Conditions were warmer and more humid, but life sustained. Another phenomenon to take into account is the "little ice age", which occurred from 1550-1850 AD. Conditions around the world were cooler than usual; many bodies of water froze over. The average global temperature since the little ice age has risen by one degree Fahrenheit. The bottom line is that it may seem that only human actions are causing global warming, but it is very possible that global warming is nothing to worry about and is just part of the global temperature cycle. Both theories are credible, but neither has yet been proven. Impact on Ecosystems Rising temperatures are beginning to have a noticeable impact on birds. Secondary evidence of global warming-lessened snow cover, rising sea-levels, weather changes - provides examples of consequences of global Impacts of Global Warming 5 warming that may influence not only human activities but also the ecosystems. Increasing global temperature means that ecosystems will change; some species are beinf?; forced out of their habitats (possibly to extinction) because of changing conditions, while others are flourishing. Few of the terrestrial ecoregions on Earth could expect to be unaffected. Many of the species at risk are arctic and antarctic fauna such as polar bears, emperor penguins, many salt wetland flora and fauna species, and any species that inhabit the low land areas near the sea. Species that rely on cold weather conditions such as gyrfalcons, and snowy owls that prey on lemmings that use the cold winter to their advantage will be hit hard. Butterflies have shifted their ranges northward by 200 km in Europe and North America. Plants lag behind, and larger animals' migration is slowed down by cities and highways. In Britain, spring butterflies are appearing an average of 6 days earlier than two decades ago. In the Arctic, the water of Hudson Bay is ice-free for three weeks longer than they were thirty years ago, C'ffecting polar bea~, which prefer to hunt on sea ice. Two 2002 studies in Nature surveyed the scientific literature to find recent changes in range or seasonal behaviour by plant and animal species. Of species showing recent change, 4 out of 5 shifted their ranges towards the poles or higher altitudes, creating "refugee species". Frogs were breeding, flowers blossoming and birds migrating an average 2.3 days earlier each decade; butterflies, birds and plants moving towards the poles by 6.1 km per decade. A 2005 study concludes human activity is the cause of the temperature rise and resultant changing species behaviour, and links these effects with the predictions of climate models to provide validation for them. Grass has become established in Antarctica for the first time. Forests in some regions potentially face an increased risk of forest fires. The 10-year average of boreal forest burned in North America, after several decades of around 10,000 km2 (2.5 million acres), has increased steadily since 1970 to more than 28,000 km2 (7 million acres) annually. This change may be due in part to changes in forest management practices. Also note forest fires since 1997 in Indonesia. The fires are started to clear forest for agriculture. These occur from time to time and can set fire to the large peat bogs in that region. The CO released by these peat bog 2 fires has been estimated, in an average year, to release 15 per cent of the quantity of CO produced by fossil fuel combustion. 2 Ecological Productivity Increasing average temperature and carbon dioxide may have the effect of improving ecosystems' productivity. Atmospheric carbon dioxide