In recent years, many widely dispersed climatic extremes around the globe, such as severe droughts and floods and the failure of the Indian monsoon, have been attributed to a common origin: the periodic warming of the sea surface in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, termed the Southern Oscillation, or El Nino. In this volume leading experts summarize information gained over the past decade which have led to marked improvements in our ability to forecast development of ENSO episodes months or seasons in advance. The book first examines the instrumental record of ENSO variability over the past 150 years, followed by topics related to large-scale signals associated with ENSO, impacts on hurricanes, hydrologic variability arising from changes in ENSO and newly emphasized aspects of climatic vari- ability and human health in relation to the ENSO phenomenon. Historical and paleoclimatic aspects of ENSO are considered in the second section of this volume. The volume includes a theoretical ex- amination of the causes of the ENSO cycle, the expression of the ENSO system on widely separated tree-ring and tropical ice core records, reconstruction of ENSO patterns using the available proxy climate record, and an interpretive synthesis of what the paleoclimatic data suggests about recent and long-term changes in ENSO. Possible linkages to other modes of regional and global-scale climatic variability, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are also discussed. This volume updates and expands the focus of Henry Diaz and Vera Markgraf's El Nino: Historical and Paleoclimatic Aspects of the Southern Oscillation (1992, Cambridge University Press). This book will be of importance to a broad range of scientists working in several disciplines, including meteorology, oceanography, hydrology, geosciences, ecology, public health, emergency management response and mitigation, coastal zone management, and decision-making. It will also be used as a supplementary textbook and reference source in graduate courses in environmental studies. Henry F. Diaz is a research climatologist at the Climate Diagnostics Center of the Environmen- tal Research Laboratories of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Department of Commerce. He is a Fellow of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), and Adjunct Associate Professor in the Department of Geography, at the University of Colorado (Boulder). He is a member of the editorial boards of the International Journal of Clima- tology and of Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research. He has published extensively in the scientific literature on the behavior of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, and on other topics related to interannual to century-scale climatic variability on regional to global spatial scales. Vera Markgraf is Research Professor at the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder. From 1991 to 1998 she chaired the global change initiative Pole-Equator-Pole Paleoclimates of the Americas under the auspices of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program- Past Global Change (IGBP-PAGES), funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation and PAGES. She is an editorial board member of the journals: Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology; Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology; and Holocene. She is the author of numerous articles and book chapters on late Quaternary climates of southern South America and circum-South Pacific land areas, and editor of Inter-Hemispheric Climate Linkages (to be published by Academic Press). EL NINO AND THE SOUTHERN OSCILLATION Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts Edited by HENRY F. DIAZ Climate Diagnostics Center, Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado and VERA MARKGRAF Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS PUBLISHED BY THE PRESS SYNDICATE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE The Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge, United Kingdom CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS The Edinburgh Building, Cambridge CB2 2RU, UK http://www.cup.cam.ac.uk 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211, USA http://www.cup.org 10 Stamford Road, Oakleigh, Melbourne 3166, Australia Ruiz de Alarc6n 13,28014 Madrid, Spain © Cambridge University Press 2000 This book is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2000 Printed in the United States of America Typeface Times Roman 10/13 pt. System KTgX 2 [TB] £ A catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data El Nino and the southern oscillation : multiscale variability and global and regional impacts / edited by Henry F. Diaz, Vera Markgraf. p. cm. ISBN 0-521-62138-0 (hb) 1. El Nino Current-Environmental aspects. 2. Southern Oscillation-Environmental aspects. I. Diaz, Henry F. II. Markgraf, Vera. GC296.8.E4 E395 2000 551.6-dc21 99-052939 ISBN 0 521 62138 0 hardback Contents Contributors page vii Acknowledgments xi Preface xiii SECTION A Global and Regional Characteristics and Impacts of ENSO Variability 1 1 ENSO and Climatic Variability in the Past 150 Years 3 ROBERT J. ALLAN 2 Understanding and Predicting Extratropical Teleconnections Related to ENSO 57 MARTIN P. HOERLING AND ARUN KUMAR 3 Global Modes of ENSO and Non-ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Variability and Their Associations with Climate 89 DAVID B. ENFIELD AND ALBERTO M. MESTAS-NUNEZ 4 Multiscale Streamflow Variability Associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation 113 MICHAEL D. DETTINGER, DANIEL R. CAYAN, GREGORY J. McCABE, AND JOSE A. MARENGO 5 El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the Seasonal Predictability of Tropical Cyclones 149 CHRISTOPHER W. LANDSEA Contents 6 Climate and ENSO Variability Associated with Vector-Borne Diseases in Colombia 183 GERMAN POVEDA, NICHOLAS E. GRAHAM, PAUL R. EPSTEIN, WILLIAM ROJAS, MARTHA L. QUINONES, IVAN DARIO VELEZ, AND WILLEM J. M. MARTENS SECTION B Long-Term Changes in ENSO: Historical, Paleoclimatic, and Theoretical Aspects 205 7 The Documented Historical Record of El Nino Events in Peru: An Update of the Quinn Record (Sixteenth through Nineteenth Centuries) 207 LUC ORTLIEB 8 Tree-Ring Records of Past ENSO Variability and Forcing 297 EDWARD R. COOK, ROSANNE D. D'ARRIGO, JULIA E. COLE, DAVID W. STAHLE, AND RICARDO VILLALBA 9 The Tropical Ice Core Record of ENSO 325 LONNIE G. THOMPSON, KEITH A. HENDERSON, ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSON, AND PING-NAN LIN 10 Long-Term Variability in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Associated Teleconnections 357 MICHAEL E. MANN, RAYMOND S. BRADLEY, AND MALCOLM K. HUGHES 11 Modulation of ENSO Variability on Decadal and Longer Timescales 413 RICHARD KLEEMAN AND SCOTT B. POWER 12 Global Climate Change and El Nino: A Theoretical Framework 443 DE-ZHENG SUN 13 The Past ENSO Record: A Synthesis 465 VERA MARKGRAF AND HENRY F. DIAZ Index 489 Contributors R. J. ALLAN R. D. D'ARRIGO CSIRO-Atmospheric Research Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Aspendale, Victoria Palisades, NY 10964 Australia U.S.A. R. S. BRADLEY M. D. DETTINGER Department of Geosciences U.S. Geological Survey University of Massachusetts San Diego, CA 92093 Amherst, MA 01003-5820 U.S.A. U.S.A. H. F. DIAZ D. R. CAYAN NOAA/OAR/CDC Climate Research Division, A-024 325 Broadway Scripps Institution of Oceanography Boulder, CO 80303 UCSD U.S.A. La Jolla,CA 92093 U.S.A. D. B. ENFIELD J. E. COLE NOAA/AOML Geoscience Department Miami, FL 33149 University of Arizona U.S.A. Tucson, AZ 85721 P. R. EPSTEIN U.S.A. Center for Health and the E. R. COOK Global Environment Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Harvard Medical School Palisades, NY 10964 Boston, MA 02115 U.S.A. U.S.A. Contributors N. E. GRAHAM J. A. MARENGO Scripps Institution of Oceanography INPE UCSD CEP 12630-000 Cachoeira Paulista La Jolla, CA 92093 Sao Paulo U.S.A. Brazil K. A. HENDERSON V. MARKGRAF Byrd Polar Research Center INSTAAR Ohio State University Campus Box 450 Columbus, OH 43210-1002 University of Colorado U.S.A. Boulder, CO 80309 M. P. HOERLING U.S.A. NOAA/OAR/CDC 325 Broadway W. J. M. MARTENS Boulder, CO 80303 International Centre for Integrative Studies U.S.A. Maastricht University P.O. Box 616 M. K. HUGHES 6200 MD, Maastricht Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research The Netherlands University of Arizona Tuscon, AZ 85721 G. J. McCABE U.S.A. U.S. Geological Survey R. KLEEMAN Denver Federal Center Courant Institute for Denver, CO 80225 Mathematical Sciences U.S.A. New York University, New York A. MESTAS-NUNEZ NY 10012, U.S.A. CIMAS A. KUMAR University of Miami Environmental Modelling Center Miami, FL 33149 NOAA/NCEP U.S.A. Camp Springs, MD 20746 U.S.A. E. MOSLEY-THOMPSON C. W. LANDSEA Byrd Polar Research Center NOAA/AOML/HRD Ohio State University Miami, FL 33149 Columbus, OH 43210-1002 U.S.A. U.S.A. P.-N. LIN L. ORTLIEB Byrd Polar Research Center ORSTOM, IFRS Ohio State University 32 Avenue Henri-Varagnat Columbus, OH 43210-1002 F-93143Bondy-Cedex U.S.A. France M. E. MANN Department of Geosciences G. POVEDA University of Massachusetts Facultad de Minas Amherst, MA 01003-5820 Universidad Nacional de Colombia U.S.A. Medellin, Colombia Contributors S. B. POWER D.-Z. SUN Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre CIRES/CDC GPOBox 1289K Campus Box 216 Melbourne 3000 University of Colorado Australia Boulder, CO 80309 U.S.A. M. L. QUINONEZ L. G. THOMPSON PECET Byrd Polar Research Center Universidad de Antioquia Ohio State University Calle62No.52-19 Columbus, OH 43210-1002 Medellin, Colombia U.S.A. I. D. VELEZ W. ROJAS PECET Corporaci6n para Investigaciones Universidad de Antioquia Biologicas, CIB Calle62No. 52-19 Medellin, Colombia Medellin, Colombia D. W. STAHLE R. VILLALBA Department of Geography Laboratorio de Dendrocronologia University of Arkansas CRICYT-Mendoza Fayetteville, AR 72701 5500 Mendoza U.S.A. Argentina