N A V A L W A R C O L L E G E R E V IE NAVA L WA R C O LL E G E R EVI EW W Winter 2009 Volume 62, Number 1 W ni t e r 2 0 0 9 NIUTEEDHTSTATES NAVALEWGEALRLOC VIRIBUSMARIVICTORIA Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2009 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2009 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Naval War College Review, Winter 2009,Volume 62, Number 1 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval War College,,686 Cushing Rd.,,Newport,,RI,02841 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 171 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen Cover The United States Fleet in the Strait of Magellan on 5 February 1908,by Henry Reuterdahl (1871–1925),oil-on-canvas painting, courtesy of the Hope Club ar- chives, reproduced with permission from the Hope Club, Providence, Rhode Island. This cover image completes our centen- nial observance of the world cruise of the U.S. Navy’s “Great White Fleet,”which ended in early 1909. We marked the hun- dredth anniversary of its December 1907 departure with Professor James R. Holmes’s “‘A Striking Thing’: Leadership, Strategic Communications, and Roose- velt’s Great White Fleet,” in our Winter 2008 issue (which actually appeared in late 2007). Henry Reuterdahl, born in Sweden,wasa war correspondent and artistwithCol- lier’smagazineduring the Spanish- American War.Chosen to accompany the Great White Fleetas correspondent,he sailedinthe battleshipUSSMinnesota from Hampton Roads to San Francisco. Reuterdahl painted this view in 1910 for Truman H. Newberry, who hadserved under President Theodore Rooseveltas Secretary of theNavyin 1908–1909. Newberry’sgrandsonpresented the painting to the Hope Club, which loaned it to the Naval War College Museumfor its “Great White Fleet”exhibit between January and April 2008. T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:10:52 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen NAVAL WAR COLLEGE REVIEW Winter 2009 Volume 62, Number 1 NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS 686 Cushing Road Newport, RI 02841-1207 T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:21 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESSADVISORYBOARD PRESIDENT,NAVALWARCOLLEGE Adam Bellow Rear Adm. James P. Wisecup, USN Capt. Wayne P. Hughes, USN (Ret.) PROVOST Gale Mattox Amb. Mary Ann Peters Robert Silano Marin Strmecki DEANOFNAVALWARFARESTUDIES Robert C. Rubel Dov Zakheim NAVALWARCOLLEGEPRESS NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEWEDITORIALBOARD Carnes Lord,Editor Audrey Kurth Cronin Pelham G. Boyer,Managing Editor Peter Dombrowski Phyllis P. Winkler,Book Review Editor Stephen Downes-Martin Lori A.Almeida,Secretary and Circulation Manager Col. Theodore L. Gatchel, USMC (Ret.) FrankUhlig, Jr.,Editor Emeritus Capt. Dennis Mandsager, JAGC, USN (Ret.) Naval War College Review William C. Martel Code 32, Naval War College Col. Mackubin Owens, USMC (Ret.) 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, RI 02841-1207 Lt. Cdr. Derek S. Reveron, USN Fax: 401.841.1071 Capt. Peter M. Swartz, USN (Ret.) DSNexchange, all lines: 948 Scott C. Truver Website: www.nwc.navy.mil/press [and] Karl F. Walling www.usnwc.edu/press James J. Wirtz Editor, Circulation, or Business 401.841.2236 [email protected] Managing Editor 401.841.4552 [email protected] Newport Papers, Books [email protected] Essays and Book Reviews 401.841.6584 [email protected] Other Naval War College Offices 401.841.3089 T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:21 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen TheNavalWarCollegeReviewwasestablishedin1948asaforumfordiscussionof publicpolicymattersofinteresttothemaritimeservices.Thethoughtsandopinions expressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsandarenotnecessarilythose oftheU.S.government,theU.S.NavyDepartment,ortheNavalWarCollege. The journal is published quarterly. Distribution is limited generally to commands andactivitiesoftheU.S.Navy,MarineCorps,andCoastGuard;regularandreserve officersofU.S.services;foreignofficersandcivilianshavingapresentorprevious affiliationwiththeNavalWarCollege;selectedU.S.governmentofficialsandagen- cies;andselectedU.S.andinternationallibraries,researchcenters,publications,and educationalinstitutions. Contributors Please request the standard contributors’ guidance from the managing editor or access it online before submitting manuscripts.TheNavalWarCollegeReviewnei- theroffersnormakescompensationforarticlesorbookreviews,anditassumesno responsibilityforthereturnofmanuscripts,althougheveryeffortismadetoreturn thosenotaccepted.Insubmittingwork,thesenderwarrantsthatitisoriginal,that itisthesender’sproperty,andthatneitheritnorasimilarworkbythesenderhas beenacceptedorisunderconsiderationelsewhere. Permissions Reproduction and reprinting are subject to the Copyright Act of 1976 and appli- cable treaties of the United States. To obtain permission to reproduce material bearing a copyright notice, or to reproduce any material for commercialpur- poses,contacttheeditorforeachuse.Materialnotbearingacopyrightnotice may be freely reproduced for academic or other noncommercial use; however, it is requested that the author andNaval War College Reviewbe credited and that the editor be informed. Periodicals postage paid at Newport, R.I. POSTMASTERS, send address changes to:Naval War College Review,Code 32S, Naval War College, 686 Cushing Rd., Newport, R.I. 02841-1207. ISSN0028-1484 T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:21 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:36 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen CONTENTS FromtheEditors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 President’s Forum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Asia Rising AsiaintheDebateonAmericanGrandStrategy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 MichaelJ.Green The debate on U.S. policy for Asia matters a great deal for the next administration and also for the U.S. Navy. A distinguished scholar/practitioner examines recent thinking and future prospects. Africa ThinkingthroughU.S.StrategicOptionsforAfrica. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 General Carlton W.Fulford, Jr., U.S. Marine Corps (Retired) It is high time for the United States to define its strategic goals and objectives with regard to Africa, to coordinate the actions of its departments and agencies there, and, most important, to help African partners improve governance, security, and economic opportunity. The Global Fleet Station APowerfulToolforPreventingConflict . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 KathiA.Sohn The Africa Partnership Station can be invaluable as a model for collaborative, integrated efforts on the continent to prevent or end violent conflict and to increase security. The U.S. Navy Into Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Jonathan Stevenson The Africa Partnership Station of early 2008 offers a more promising model for the nascent U.S. Africa Command than do “kinetic” operating modes employed by U.S. forces there in the recent past. T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:36 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen 2 NAVALWARCOLLEGEREVIEW U.S.NavySurfaceBattleDoctrineandVictoryinthePacific. . . . . . . . . . 67 Trent Hone The U.S. Navy in the Pacific War responded to the emergence of carrier warfare and to the strengths of the Imperial Japanese Navy with doctrinal initiatives that enhanced flexibility and high tempo and thereby contributed substantially to victory in 1945. Learning the Hard Way Force Protection 1983–2000 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 Lieutenant Commander JohnCallaway, U.S. Navy The bombing of the USSColein Aden in 2000 was less a precursor of 9/11 than a fulfillment of patterns of learning—and failure—in force protection that began with the 1983 Marine barracks attack in Lebanon and the 1996KhobarTowers bombing. What did the military learn over those seventeen years, and how well? Through a Mirror Darkly TheFaceofFutureWar,1871–2005. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Richard J. Norton Military “future history” is far from dead. That genre has had real-world impact in the past and is very likely to again. Analysts and policy makers need to know how to approach such works, what allowances to make, and how to draw value from them. Review Essay TheEssentialAfricaReader . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Eleven books on Africa, reviewed by Stephen A. Emerson Book Reviews Power and Military Effectiveness: The Fallacy of DemocraticTriumphalism,by Michael C.Desch reviewedbyDavidBurbach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:36 AM Color profile: Generic CMYK printer profile Composite Default screen CONTENTS 3 Striking First: Preemption and Prevention in International Conflict, by Michael Doyle reviewedbyThomasNichols. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 Strategic Studies: A Reader,edited by Thomas G. Mahnken and Joseph A. Maiolo reviewedbyJonathanWinkler. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 Destroyer Captain: Lessons of a First Command,by JamesStavridis reviewedbyTomFedyszyn. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Entering the Dragon’s Lair: ChineseAntiaccessStrategies and Their Implications for the United States,by Roger Cliff et al. reviewedbyAndrewErickson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150 Sea Lanes and Pipelines: Energy Security in Asia,by Bernard D. Cole reviewedbyJamesP.Lewis. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Invisible Nation: How the Kurds’ Quest for Statehood Is Shaping Iraq and the Middle East,byQuilLawrence Blood and Belief: ThePKKand the Kurdish Fight for Independence, byAlizaMarcus reviewedbyAnthonyDiBella . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Iran Awakening: One Woman’s Journey to Reclaim Her Life and Country, byShirinEbadi The Shia Revival: How Conflicts within Islam Will Shape the Future, by ValiNasr reviewedbyHayatAlvi-Aziz. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 Charlie Wilson’s War: The Extraordinary Story of How the Wildest Man in Congress and a Rogue CIA Agent Changed the History of Our Times, by GeorgeCrile reviewedbyGeneMilowicki. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 The Training Ground: Grant, Lee, Sherman, and Davis in the Mexican War, 1846–1848,by MartinDugard reviewedbyWilliamCalhoun. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 ReflectionsonReading. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158 Index of Volume 61 ArticlesandEssays . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 T:\Academic\NWC Review\Winter 2009\NWCR Winter 09\NWCR W09.vp Thursday, December 18, 2008 11:11:36 AM