USMC Enlisted Endstrenggth Model MORS Workshop PPeerrssoonnnneell aanndd NNaattiioonnaall SSeeccuurriittyy:: A Quantitative Approach Working Group #2: Models for Managing Retention Molly F. McIntosh January 27, 2009 Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED JAN 2010 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2010 to 00-00-2010 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER USMC Enlisted Endstrength Model 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION CNA,4825 Mark Center Drive,Alexandria,VA,22311 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES Personnel and National Security: A Quantitative Approach (Unclass), 25-28 January 2010, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Maryland. U.S. Government or Federal Rights License 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE Same as 22 unclassified unclassified unclassified Report (SAR) Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Background • This model is an adaptation of an earlier CNA model developed to simulate endstrength changes during the 1990s force drawdown • The model was uppdated for use in a pprojject examiningg various asppects and future sustainability of a USMC force of 202K – Predict future enlisted endstrength fixing accessions, or future accessions fixing enlisted endstrength – Scenario simulations (ex: change in continuation rates) • In today’s session, I will demonstrate the model’s functionality and present some results from scenario simulations 2 Endstrength Model overview: Projecting endstrength Beginning inventory, FY09 Planned accessions Continuation rates, FY08-FY09 FY09 FY10 FY11 Promotion distribution, FY08 FY12 FY13 Endstrength Model Future endstrength by Average years of Average years of service paygrade and years of service service by paygrade to promotion FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 3 Endstrength Model overview: Projecting accessions Beginning inventory, FY09 Planned endstrength Continuation rates, FY08-FY09 FY09 FY10 FY11 Promotion distribution, FY08 FY12 FY13 Endstrength Model Accessions required to meet Average years of Average years of service planned endstrength service by paygrade to promotion FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FFYY0099 FFYY1100 FFYY1111 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 FY12 FY13 4 Cost factors applied to the model’s projections & cost factors: BBaassiicc ppaayy Housing allowance Reetireemeent aaccccruuaal Subsistence allowance FFIICCAA PCS Medical care Does not include costs associated with advertising, enlistment bonuses, SRBs, and other reenlistment or separation incentives 5 Beginning FY 2009 47.5 % Accession survivors that are E2s Modify Beginning Inventory 5.6 % Accession survivors that are E3s .0 %% AAcccceessssiioonn ssuurrvviivvoorrss tthhaatt aarree EE44ss Modify Pay Table 20.2 % YOS1 survivors that are E2s Modify BAH Costs 72.4 % YOS1 survivors that are E3s Modify Retirement Costs 4.6 % YOS1 survivors that are E4s MMooddiiffyy OOtthheerr CCoossttss 3.9 % YOS2 survivors that are E2s Modify Inflation Factors 55.2 % YOS2 survivors that are E3s Modify Continuation Rates Modify Initial Promotion Distribution EEnnddssttrreennggtthh PPllaann MMooddee 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 ((LLeeaavvee uunncchheecckkeedd ffoorr AAcccceessssiioonn PPllaann MMooddee)) Modify Loss\Gain Adjustments for FY OOuuttppuutt AAllll SShheeeettss MMooddiiffyy PPllaannnneedd EESS ffoorr SSeelleecctteedd FFYY View Average Longevity 42 % Accession For First Half of FY SHOW COSTS .88 Survival Rate For First Half of FY SHOW HELP .9955 Survival Rate For Second Half of FY HIDE HELP Output Result 31400 2009 Accessions QUIT 28000 2010 Accessions 3311550000 22001111 AAcccceessssiioonnss 34000 2012 Accessions 33000 2013 Accessions 6 Scenario 1: Force sustainment with high continuation rates FY08-FY09 continuation rates are 3.1% higher on average than FY00-FY01 100% 90% S O Y all s s 80% o r c a e at r n o 70% FY00-FY01 FY08-FY09 atia u n nti o C 60% 50% E1 E2 E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 Paygrade Assume continuation rates stay high through FY 13 7 Scenario 1: End of FY09, model ES meets planned ES 200,000 182K 183K Predicted ES Planned ES h 150,000 t g n e r t ss d n e d e 100,000 t s i 86K 87K l n ee Y F - f o - d n E 50,000 3388KK 3377KK 29K 29K 16K 16K 9K 9K 4K 4K 3K 2K 0 E1-E3 E4 E5 E6 E7 E8 E9 Total Paygrade 8 Scenario 1: FY11-FY13, model ES exceeds planned ES 119900,000000 Planned 181K enlisted ES for 202K total ES 185K 185K 183K 182K 182K 180,000 h t g n e r t s dd n e d e 170,000 t s i l n e YY F - f o - d n E 160,000 115500,000000 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 9