DEFENSE TECHNICAL INFORMATION CENTER TnfoniiiXtUiifor the Defense CoHUHUsiity Month Day Year DTIC® has determined on 'i&i/tLi&jSUthat this Technical Document IKLLLI LLLQJ has the Distribution Statement checked below. The current distribution for this document can be found in the DTIC® Technical Report Database. U3 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ] © COPYRIGHTED. U.S. Government or Federal Rights License. All other rights and uses except those permitted by copyright law are reserved by the copyright owner. • DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT B. Distribution authorized to U.S. Government agencies only. Other requests for this document shall be referred to controlling office. ] DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT C. Distribution authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and their contractors. Other requests for this document shall be referred to controlling office. ] DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT D. Distribution authorized to the Department of Defense and U.S. DoD contractors only. Other requests shall be referred to controlling office. • DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT E. Distribution authorized to DoD Components only. Other requests shall be referred to controlling office. ] DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT F. Further dissemination only as directed by controlling office or higher DoD authority. Distribution Statement F is also used when a document does not contain a distribution statement and no distribution statement can be determined. ] DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT X. Distribution authorized to U.S. Government Agencies and private individuals or enterprises eligible to obtain export-controlled technical data in accordance with DoDD 5230.25. Nuclear Heuristics: Selected Writings of Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter Robert Zarate Henry Sokolski Editors IMHI 20090210123 1 Commentaries by Henry S. Rowen Alain C. Enthoven Richard Perle Stephen J. Lukasik & Andrew W. Marshall Cover Photo Courtesy of Marianne Atkinson. © 1991 NUCLEAR HEURISTICS: SELECTED WRITINGS OF ALBERT AND ROBERTA WOHLSTETTER Robert Zarate Henry Sokolski Editors January 2009 This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. As such, it is in the public domain, and under the provisions of Title 17, United States Code, Section 105, it may not be copyrighted. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, 122 Forbes Ave, Carlisle, PA 17013-5244. All Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) publications are available on the SSI homepage for electronic dissemination. Hard copies of this report also may be ordered from our homepage. SSI's homepage address is: www.StrategicStudiesInstitute.army.mil. The Strategic Studies Institute publishes a monthly e-mail newsletter to update the national security community on the research of our analysts, recent and forthcoming publications, and upcoming conferences sponsored by the Institute. Each newsletter also provides a strategic commentary by one of our research analysts. If you are interested in receiving this newsletter, please subscribe on our homepage at www.StrategicStudiesbistitute.army. mil/ newsletter/. ISBN 1-58487-370-1 II CONTENTS Preface Henry Sokolski vii Acknowledgments xi Introduction Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter on Nuclear-Age Strategy Robert Zarate 1 I. Analysis and Design of Strategic Policy 91 Commentary: How He Worked Henry S. Rowen 93 Theory and Opposed-Systems Design (1968) Albert Wohlstetter 123 II. Nuclear Deterrence 165 Commentary: On Nuclear Deterrence Alain C. Enthoven 167 The Delicate Balance of Terror (1958) Albert Wohlstetter 177 Excerpts on "Missile Gap" from General Comments on Senator Kennedy's National Security Speeches (circa 1960) Albert Wohlstetter 213 On the Genesis of Nuclear Strategy: Letter to Michael Howard (1968) Albert Wohlstetter 217 III. Nuclear Proliferation 255 Commentary: Timely Warnings Still - The Wohlstetters and Nuclear Proliferation Henry Sokolski 257 Nuclear Sharing: NATO and theN+1 Country (1961) Albert Wohlstetter 268 Spreading the Bomb without Quite Breaking the Rules (1976) Albert Wohlstetter 301 The Buddha Smiles: U.S. Peaceful Aid and the Indian Bomb (1978) Roberta Wohlstetter 339 Signals, Noise and Article IV (1979) Albert Wohlstetter, Gregory S. Jones and Roberta Wohlstetter 357 Nuclear Triggers and Safety Catches, the "FSU" and the "FSRs" (1992) Albert Wohlstetter 374 IV. Arms Race Myths vs. Strategic Competition's Reality 379 Commentary: Arms Race Myths vs. Strategic Competition's Reality Richard Perle 381 The Case for Strategic Force Defense (1969) Albert Wohlstetter 389 Racing Forward? Or Ambling Back? (1976) Albert Wohlstetter 414 IV On Arms Control: Wlmt We Should Look for in an Arms Agreement (1985) Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter 472 Arms Control That Could Work (1985) Albert Wohlstetter and Brian G. Chow 501 V. Towards Discriminate Deterrence 507 Commentary: Towards Discriminate Deterrence Stephen J. Lukasik 509 Strength, Interest and New Technologies (1968) Albert Wohlstetter 524 How Much is Enough? How Mad is MAD? (1974) Albert Wohlstetter 551 Bishops, Statesmen, and Other Strategists on the Bombing of Innocents (1983) Albert Wohlstetter 557 Connecting the Elements of the Strategy: Excerpt from Discriminate Deterrence (1988) The Commission on Integrated Long Term Strategy 604 RPM, or Revolutions by the Minute (1992) Albert Wohlstetter 613 VI. Limiting and Managing New Risks 623 Commentary: Strategy as a Profession in the Future Security Environment Andrew W. Marshall 625 End of the Cold War? End of History and All War? Excerpt from an Outline for a Memoir (1989) Albert Wohlstetter 637 The Fax Shall Make You Free (1990) Albert Wohlstetter 639 Tlie Bitter End: Tlie Case for Re-Intervention in Iraq (1991) Albert Wohlstetter and Fred S. Hoffman 649 Wliat the West Must Do in Bosnia: An Open Letter to President Clinton (1993) Albert Wohlstetter and Margaret Thatcher 661 Boris Yeltsin as Abraham Lincoln? (1995) Albert Wohlstetter 669 About the Editors and Contributors 677 VI PREFACE Three years ago, I received a phone call and then a visit at my home from a University of Chicago graduate student eager to learn about Albert and Roberta Wohlstetter. Robert Zarate interviewed me for nearly 2 hours. It was clear from the questions that he asked me that his interest in the Wohlstetters' work was more than casual. After Robert's initial visit, he called me again several times to clarify and pursue additional questions. I recommended other experts who had worked with or studied under the Wohlstetters for him to interview. Harry Rowen, my former Defense Department boss, was one. Andrew Marshall, at the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, was another. Both had worked closely with Albert and Roberta at RAND. Later, Harry and I contacted Joan Wohlstetter, Albert and Roberta's daughter, and persuaded her to make her parents' private papers at the Hoover Institution's archives available to Robert. These papers are now open to the public, and some of them are included in this edited volume. Robert's visits to Washington multiplied as he interviewed more of Albert's former proteges, as well as his critics. In 2006,1 asked Robert if he would be willing to help out at my nonprofit research organization, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC). He immediately agreed and assumed responsibility for completing research that had already been begun by Paul Lettow on the meaning of "nuclear energy for peaceful purposes" in the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. Although Robert was planning to write a comprehensive biography of Albert Wohlstetter, I encouraged him instead to publish short pieces on the Wohlstetters. His success here led to the next suggestion: an edited volume of Albert and Roberta's key writings relating to nuclear proliferation and national security affairs, with commentaries by the Wohlstetters' colleagues and students. I worked with him to develop a grant proposal. Vll