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Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2007 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2007 to 00-00-2007 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Sustaining Air Force Space Systems. A Model for the Global Positioning 5b. GRANT NUMBER System 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Rand Corporation,1776 Main Street,PO Box 2138,Santa REPORT NUMBER Monica,CA,90407-2138 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 67 unclassified unclassified unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Sustaining Air Force Space Systems A Model for the Global Positioning System Don Snyder Patrick Mills Katherine Comanor Charles Robert Roll, Jr. • • • Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release, distribution unlimited The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003 and FA7014-06-C-0001. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Sustaining Air Force space systems : a model for the Global Positioning System / Don Snyder ... [et al.]. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4044-2 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Astronautics, Military—United States—Equipment and supplies. 2. Global Positioning System. 3. United States. Air Force—Procurement. 4. United States. Air Force Space Command—Planning. I. Snyder, Don, 1962– II. Rand Corporation. UG1523.S87 2007 358'.88—dc22 2007001853 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/ To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Preface Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) needs quantitative tools to assist it in making decisions on how changes in the dollars invested in main- tenance and sustainment of the ground segment of space systems affect the operational performance of those systems. This monograph outlines criteria for analyzing how sustainment investments affect the opera- tional performance of space systems, focusing on the Global Position- ing System. We offer a framework for such analyses and recommend steps to implement that framework. The research reported here was sponsored by Air Force Space Command. The work was conducted within the Resource Manage- ment Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a project begun in late fiscal year 2005, “Air Force Space Command Logistics Review.” A related document is • Space Command Sustainment Review: Improving the Balance Between Current and Future Capabilities, Robert S. Tripp, Kristin F. Lynch, Shawn Harrison, John G. Drew, and Charles Robert Roll, Jr. (MG-518-AF, forthcoming). The research for this report was completed in February 2006. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corpo- ration, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and develop- iii iv Sustaining Air Force Space Systems ment center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aero- space forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Manage- ment; and Strategy and Doctrine. Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at http://www.rand.org/paf. Contents Preface............................................................................. iii Figures.............................................................................vii Summary...........................................................................ix Acknowledgments...............................................................xv Abbreviations................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE Introduction....................................................................... 1 Challenges to Space System Modeling Efforts.................................. 3 Why the GPS?...................................................................... 5 Organization of This Monograph................................................ 6 CHAPTER TWO Considerations for a GPS Sustainment Model.............................. 7 An Overview of GPS.............................................................. 7 Considerations for Modeling Sustainment Effects on GPS Performance............................................................12 CHAPTER THREE A Predictive Model for the Sustainment of GPS Ground Antennas...21 A Pilot Model......................................................................21 Illustrative Calculations..........................................................24 Current Antenna Configuration..............................................25 Alternative Antenna Configurations..........................................32 v vi Sustaining Air Force Space Systems CHAPTER FOUR Conclusions and Next Steps...................................................37 APPENDIX The GPS as a Public Good.....................................................43 Bibliography......................................................................47 Figures 2.1. Locations of the Four GPS Ground Antennas...................12 3.1. Flow Diagram of the Simulation Algorithm .....................23 3.2. Histogram of Average ERD for Three Different MTTRF ..............................................................26 3.3. Visibility of GPS Satellites by Ground Antennas as a Function of Latitude.................................................27 3.4. Effect of MTTRF and MTBCF on ERD for Current Ground Antennas....................................................29 3.5. Contour Plot of the 99th Percentile of (cid:94) as a Function of the MTTRF and the MTBCF..................................31 3.6. Effect of MTTRF and MTBCF on ERD for Five Ground Antennas....................................................33 3.7. Effect of MTTRF and MTBCF on ERD for Three Ground Antennas....................................................35 A.1. Schematic of Demand Curves for a Public Good................44 A.2. Demand Curves and Supply Curve for GPS Public Good.....45 vii