NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY NATIONAL WAR COLLEGE MILITARY TRANSFORMATION FOR THE CHANGING CAUSE, CHARACTER AND CONDUCT OF CONFLICT IN THE 21ST CENTURY GP CAPT CHETAN BALI, INDIAN AIR FORCE COURSE 5602 MILITARY THOUGHT AND THE ESSENCE OF WAR SEMINAR J PROFESSOR COLONEL JOHN H McDONALD Jr ADVISOR PROF IJ SINGH Report Documentation Page Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for the collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington VA 22202-4302. Respondents should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. 1. REPORT DATE 3. DATES COVERED 2004 2. REPORT TYPE 00-00-2004 to 00-00-2004 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Military Transformaiton for the Changing Cause, Character and 5b. GRANT NUMBER Conduct of Conflict in the 21st Century 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e. TASK NUMBER 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION National War College,300 5th Avenue,Fort Lesley J. REPORT NUMBER McNair,Washington,DC,20319-6000 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT NUMBER(S) 12. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Approved for public release; distribution unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The original document contains color images. 14. ABSTRACT see report 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES RESPONSIBLE PERSON a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 15 unclassified unclassified unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 2 MILITARY TRANSFORMATION FOR THE CHANGING CAUSE, CHARACTER AND CONDUCT OF CONFLICT IN THE TWENTY FIRST CENTURY “Thus, those skilled in war subdue the enemy’s army without battle. They capture his cities without assaulting them and overthrow his state without protracted operations.” - Sun Tzu on Offensive Strategy “War is thus an act of force to compel our enemy to do our will…Force – that is, physical force, for moral force has no existence save as expressed in the state and the law – is thus the means of war…” - Clausewitz “On War” "This is another type of war, new in its intensity, ancient in its origin - war by guerrillas, subversives, insurgents, assassins, war by ambush instead of combat, by infiltration instead of aggression, seeking victory by eroding and exhausting the enemy, a warfare uniquely adapted to what has been wrongly called wars of liberation, to undermine the efforts of new and poor countries to maintain the freedom that they have finally achieved. It preys on economic unrest and ethnic conflicts. It requires understanding of those situations where we must counter it, and these are the kind of challenges that will be before us in the coming decades if freedom is to be saved; a whole new kind of strategy, a new and wholly different kind of military training." - John F Kennedy, 1962 3 Introduction Transformation engineered by Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) has become the byword of the US Armed Forces, and by a ripple effect of the armed forces worldwide. The objective is to create a “leaner and meaner” technology driven military, a near-perfect fighting machine backed by near-perfect intelligence. However, the current efforts at transformation possibly do not pay adequate attention to the changing cause, character and conduct of conflict. There is a very real possibility that the transformed military will design itself out of the capability to combat emerging conflicts of the 21st Century. The 20th Century was the most violent period in the history of mankind. The Napoleonic concept of levee en masse was perfected in the two World Wars as the world graduated from the concept of a conflict between armies to a nation-in-arms. This, in turn witnessed the transformation of the military machine into an efficient mass killer which then logically evolved into the concept of total nuclear annihilation – technology gave the power to mankind to completely destroy itself many times over. The dissolution of the Soviet Union has created an overwhelming military asymmetry in favor of the United States universally, and of a few other nations, regionally. This has initiated growing irrelevance of the Napoleonic concept. The world now seems to be moving towards low intensity conflict, fought by unconventional methods to overcome overwhelming conventional asymmetry. Also, technology is blurring the distinction it once created between the military and the civilian – the “warriors” of Al Qa’eda do not wear jackboots. The cause for conflict is changing, creating new battle spaces and high grounds. Wars in the 20th Century were fought over ideologies within territories and the spread of a given ideology by the physical expansion of territory. Globalization and overarching spread of the Information Highway is dissolving territorial boundaries. This, in turn is negating the requirement of physical occupation of a territory to spread and share an ideology. The Information Highway is also eroding the traditional concepts of military hierarchy and military balance of power. It has become the first new high ground of future conflict. The current world population of 6.0 billion is expected to double in the next 40-60 years. The population boom is creating increasing pressure on the sharing of natural resources, particularly, fossil fuels and fresh water, which are the two critical resources. 4 At the current rate of consumption, the existing proven oil reserves will be exhausted in 40 years. Fresh water is expected to become a critical resource by 2025. States will increasingly be drawn into conflict over control over resources. Resource wars will be the wars of the 21st Century.1 Control of resources thus becomes the second new high ground of future conflict The changing character of the foe is bringing about the changing character and conduct of war. Massed armies, large armadas and fleets of aircraft trained and arrayed to crush the opponent’s similarly arrayed military machine are becoming redundant. The Clausewitzian concept of the use of overwhelming force and violence to break the will to fight seems to be giving way to Sun Tzu’s concepts of strategic excellence lying in the ability to win without violence. The increasing integration between the military and the non-military and the almost complete dependence of both on the information network has created a completely new set of vulnerabilities, which can be exploited by non-military means. Information warriors are exploiting areas that transcend existing military doctrines and capabilities. The growing dependence of societies on the Information Highway has created new ways of striking at a foe, completely circumventing existing military might. The key has become disruption and not destruction. This paper will attempt to briefly analyze the components of the changing cause, character and conduct of conflict, the changing character of the foe and the emerging vulnerabilities. An attempt will then be made for defining the direction for required military transformation in the 21st Century. The Changing Cause, Character and Conduct of Conflict Revolution in Military Thought: Modern armed forces continue to be basically tailored on the operational necessities defined by Clausewitz, that is, the need for overwhelming military force to subdue an enemy similarly deployed. This continues to be the basic premise of RMA based transformation. The ghost of Clausewitz is being kept alive. However, the treatises of Clausewitz and his contemporaries were based on the underlying political objectives of territorial security, territorial gain and the balance of power. Military thinkers of yore never did need to factor firstly, the diffusion of territorial boundaries spurred by the Information Highway, and secondly, the growing pressure on 1 Michael T Klare, Resource Wars: The New Landscape of Global Conflict, (New York, Henry Holt & Co, 2002) 5 vital natural resources created by an exploding population on the one hand, and the awesome gluttony of resource consumption on the other. Alvin and Heidi Toeffler in their seminal work, “War and Anti War,” have predicted territorial irrelevance of state boundaries. As the world moves into the 21st Century, the ability to control the two new high grounds of the Information Highway and vital natural resources will dictate national security. Unfortunately, Revolution in Military Affairs has not been accompanied by a Revolution in Military Thought. We remain content to re-interpret the great military thinkers of the 19th Century – a mistake that led to the catastrophe of World War I and of the wars that followed. Information Highway - The First New High Ground of Conflict: It may be argued that the progress of civilization and the development of socio-political structures were based on the premise of managing conflict. This led to the concepts of state, security, government and military forces and all that is required to sustain them. These structures are being eroded by the rapid spread of the Information Highway across the world. The Information Highway is also increasing broad-based societal dependency. State governance, public services and infrastructure, economy, commerce, industry and the growing penetration and increasing reach of the media are all dependant on it. The Information Highway has become the pivotal apparatus interconnecting and controlling all instruments of state power. It is no longer a support function. The growing state and societal dependence on the Information Highway creates a growing vulnerability. When coupled to its “strategic reach,” one can safely conclude that the Information Highway is a vital strategic resource. Its pivotal role needs to be acknowledged by reviewing existing organization structures, doctrines and policy. The Information Highway is the first new high ground of conflict. Information Warfare is a potent weapon, targeted against the Information Highway. The scope of Information Warfare ranges from the enemy on the battlefield to the functioning of society. Potential battlefields, fronts and Areas of Responsibility (AOR) can no longer be precisely defined. The information revolution is weakening hierarchy and strengthening networks, which are lateral in nature. These networks are diluting the traditional hierarchical structure of the armed forces. Information Warfare is also a great leveler. Non-state actors can wage it with the same felicity as the established 6 legitimate organs of the state. When juxtaposed against traditional warfare, Information Warfare has the following differences2: INFORMATION WARFARE TRADITIONAL WARFARE No geographical boundaries Geographically defined theatre of war No decision matrix Defined decision matrix: Strategic, Operational, Tactical No clear distinction between Distinction between War and Peace States / Levels of Conflict Warlike and Criminal Definition / Character of Enemy Rogue and Civilized State Cannot achieve conflict Can achieve conflict resolution3 resolution Vital Natural Resources - The Second New High Ground of Conflict: The accel- erated depletion and the growing dependence on two vital natural resources, fresh water and carbon based fossil fuels, is leading to growing friction and confrontation over the control of these resources. Vital natural resources are the second new high ground of conflict. The criticality and implications of the growing shortages are discussed below. (a) Fresh Water: Water is becoming the most critical resource in the world. It is predicted that by 2025, at least 65 countries will face serious water shortages. Around the world, 80 countries already face declining agricultural production due water shortages. 9,500 children die every day due to water shortage or water related disease. These are the portents of the rapidly growing worldwide water scarcity. Currently, 300 million people face severe water shortages. By 2025, this figure will increase to 1.5 billion. Areas with the fastest growing populations (North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia) also have the most rapidly growing water shortages. The situation is exacerbated by the geographical fact that a large number of water resources are shared by two or more countries or by two or more states (regions) of the same country. Even within the country (including in the 2 Maj Gen Yashwant Deva (Retd), Information Warfare For The Theatre Commander, www.idsa.india-org/an-aug-7.html 3 Author’s Note: The inability of Information Warfare to achieve conflict resolution leads to the definitive requirement of and the primacy of traditional military forces to achieve a decision in war. Information Warfare, however, is most effective for neutralizing conventional military asymmetry. When thus employed, it becomes a potent weapon in the hands of the emerging foe of the 21st Century. 7 United States), there are growing disputes on water rights. Although a few river systems are covered by treaties of water sharing rights, (sharing the Danube in Europe, the Indus system and the Ganges system in the Indian sub-continent, the Nile in North Africa), there are major transnational river systems in every continent where there are no treaties on water sharing. US Intelligence agencies have identified 10 potential flash points over water disputes, worldwide. The bottom line is that wars of the future may be fought over water resources.4 (b) Fossil Fuels: The relationship between military policy and petroleum, the most vital of the fossil fuels, began with the British decision to convert combat vessels from coal to oil in 1912. Since then, energy resource security has become a paramount factor for conflict. This includes Operation Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom. While the economies of the developed world continue to depend heavily on the assured uninterrupted supply of oil, the rapidly growing energy demand in developing countries led by China and India (3.8 percent annually) has added new competitors in the field. The energy demand in China, India, Brazil and Mexico is expected to triple by 2020. Overall, the world’s projected energy consumption from fossil fuels will increase by 63 percent (from 1996 to 2020). Simultaneously, the world’s current petroleum reserves are expected to last for 40 years. This figure is likely to reduce to 25-30 years, if the projected annual growth rate of 2.1 percent is factored in. The “Strategic Triangle,” encompassed within the baseline joining the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea with its apex at the Caspian Sea, contains 47 percent of the world’s current oil production facilities and 74 percent of the world’s proven reserves of oil. A majority of the world’s supply of natural gas is also located within this region. The Strategic Triangle not only encompasses the countries with the fastest growing demand for energy, but also the world’s most unstable regions of territorial, ethnic and ideological conflict. Therefore, there is growing likelihood of conflict within the Strategic Triangle – especially when viewed from the perspective of internal energy demands of countries within the triangle versus the energy demands of countries outside the triangle.5 4 Dr Paul Simon, Tapped Out (New York, Welcome Rain Publishers, 1998), 4-13, 60-82 5 Klare, 15-58 8 The criticality of fresh water scarcity will first affect West Asia,i located within the Strategic Triangle. When this is factored into the energy supply and demand profile, it may be safely concluded that the Strategic Triangle is likely to be the battle space for wars of the 21st Century. The Changing Character of the Foe The Second World War resulted in the demise of multipolarity and the emergence of bipolarity. The Cold War provided further impetus to the United States and the Soviet Union to develop conventional and non-conventional military capabilities far in excess of the logical requirement. Both countries devoted an incredible amount of time and resources in the race to maintain the balance of power. And while they maintained some semblance of parity, the rest of the world was left a distant second. The acquisition of such overwhelming military capability, followed by self-destruction of the Soviet Union, resulted in an unexpected consequence – the emergence of a new kind of foe. The changing character of the foe was not an evolution. It was an historically cyclic response to overwhelming military (and economic) asymmetry. History has witnessed the rise of the guerilla whenever man is faced with insurmountable conventional power. The terrorist of today, it may be argued, is nothing but an urban guerilla. History also bears witness to the metamorphosis of the guerilla into a legitimate political entity, finally gaining the governance of a nation or of establishing a new nation. The most successful examples in the 20th Century being Mao Zedong, Ho Chi Minh and Fidel Castro. In today’s world, where a few countries led by the United States possess overwhelming military superiority, the only viable option left to the challengers is unconventional warfare – euphemistically termed as low intensity conflict operations (LICO), where the challenger, labeled the terrorist, the insurgent, the ultra, or the militant, aims at involving the great power in low intensity conflict operations. Success of LICO by the Viet Cong against the United States in the Vietnam War remains an undeniable symbol of inspiration to the aspirations of modern-day separatists against a great military power. A mutation of the modern day guerilla has created the second type of modern foe. While the terrorist operates at the low intensity conflict end of the spectrum of war, his mutant prefers the other extreme of the spectrum. He strives to negate the asymmetry of the balance of power equation by the threatened use of WMD. This mutant is infinitely more dangerous, for he has already achieved political legitimacy. He maintains 9 legitimacy through subjugation within, which in turn gives him the resource base for developing and deploying WMD, with an unstated but implied threat of use. And this threat helps him to cling onto political legitimacy. He has thus developed and controls a self-perpetuating cycle of power. Political leadership in North Korea and the military dictatorship in Pakistan are prime examples. The commonality between two emerging types of foes in the 21st Century is: (a) They are absolutely dependent upon the continued support (forced or otherwise) of a captive human resource base. (b) They write their own rules. It may be argued that their very survival depends upon the premise that the international community will continue to play according to the established set of norms of international behavior. Therefore, the key vulnerabilities of the emerging foe of the 21st Century lie in denying the resource base and the luxury of operating according to his set of rules. Robert Kaplan observes that, “America’s military superiority guarantees that such new adversaries will not fight according to our notions of fairness: they will come at us by surprise, asymmetrically, at our weakest points…Foolish dictators like Saddam Hussein, who fight conventional wars against us are historically rare…”6 The Emerging Vulnerabilities Geographical Invulnerability and the Information Highway: The Great Wall of China stands as a mute symbol of building geographical invulnerability. It led to the creation of the enigma of the Forbidden Kingdom. Similarly, American exceptionalism and idealism is a product of geographical invulnerability. Technology has breached this shield. Great standing armies, created to overcome geographical vulnerabilities and ensure national sovereignty, stand powerless as the Information Highway leapfrogs over them, encompassing the whole world. The worldwide information network is intricately interconnected, making it increasingly difficult to define national boundaries or areas of responsibility. It also permits innumerable access paths difficult, if not impossible to police. Near-total dependence on the Information Highway in the United States and other developed countries creates an absolute vulnerability. The targeted country could theoretically be brought to a state of chaos followed by standstill. Military Effectiveness and the Information Highway: Effectiveness of modern military forces is also directly dependent on the Information Highway. Current efforts at 6 Robert D Kaplan, Warrior Politics (New York, Vintage Books, 2002) 9-10