1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:39 AM Page 65 Mount Ararat,Armenia. Military Engagement AP/Wide World Photos (Misha Japaridze) in the South Caucasus By J A M E S E. D E T E M P L E T he importance of the South Far Countries Caucasus to European secu- Strategically located on the south- rity is growing. Recent trips eastern NATO flank, the South Cauca- by Lord Robertson to the re- sus borders Iran, Russia, and Turkey. gion underscore NATO resolve to ex- Some observers believe that among pand security under the Partnership for post-Soviet regions the South Caucasus Peace (PFP) program. Moreover, the is second only to the Baltic states in three South Caucasus states—Armenia, strategic importance to the Alliance be- Azerbaijan, and Georgia—are moving cause its territory is contiguous with toward a closer relationship with the Al- member nation Turkey and is a natural liance. These developments bode well extension of Europe. It also forms a for future regional stability. strategic corridor linking Southern Eu- rope with Central Asia that could be used as a conduit for Caspian energy re- Lieutenant Colonel James E. DeTemple, USAF, is a national defense fellow in the sources, which will likely play a signifi- Institute for the Study of Conflict, Ideology, and Policy at Boston University cant role in European energy security and a former NATO staff officer. Autumn/Winter 2001–02 / JFQ 65 Report Documentation Page Report Date Report Type Dates Covered (from... to) 00 00 2002 N/A - Title and Subtitle Contract Number Military Ehgagement in the South Caucasus Grant Number Program Element Number Author(s) Project Number Task Number Work Unit Number Performing Organization Name(s) and Address(es) Performing Organization Report Number National Defense University Institute for National Strategic Studies Washington D C 20319-5066 Sponsoring/Monitoring Agency Name(s) and Sponsor/Monitor’s Acronym(s) Address(es) Sponsor/Monitor’s Report Number(s) Distribution/Availability Statement Approved for public release, distribution unlimited Supplementary Notes The original document contains color images. Abstract Subject Terms Report Classification Classification of this page unclassified unclassified Classification of Abstract Limitation of Abstract unclassified UU Number of Pages 7 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:39 AM Page 66 (cid:2) JFQ FORUM Armenia Defense Budget: $65 million for 2001; the gross domestic product in 2000 was $1.9 billion ($3,703 per capita). Manpower: With a population of 3,464,000, Armenia has a total of 477,000 men between the ages of 18 and 32. Active military strength is 42,060. Armed Forces: Armenia has an army of 38,900 troops with 110 U.S.meeting with Photos (Wilfredo Lee) mapcrneaardfisnt o aanbvnnaidtae t1tll ei2ao ntanadr nmf keoesird gca hehntsed lc wiacooiimrtp hdbte ea3rfts,e .1an6isr0e- Azerbaijani and World Armenian presidents. Wide Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, P/ The Military Balance, 2001–2002(Oxford: Oxford Uni- A versity Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2001). and the global energy market if regional Russian military presence in Geor- instability is overcome.1 gia is a serious challenge to regional Azerbaijan Security problems, including eth- stability. NATO has in fact been seeking nic conflicts, humanitarian crises, and the withdrawal of Russian military Defense Budget: $119 million for regional disintegration, beleaguer the equipment. The Treaty on Conven- 2000; the gross domestic product three countries. Georgia has been trou- tional Armed Forces in Europe, signed in 2000 was $4.8 billion ($2,181 bled by internal disputes since gaining in 1990 and amended in 1997 and per capita). independence in 1991. Abkhazia on 1999, established ceilings on conven- Manpower: With a population of tional weaponry and re- 7,752,000, Azerbaijan has a total Russian military presence in Georgia is duced the allowable size of 990,000 men between the ages and forward deployment a serious challenge to regional stability of 18 and 32. Active military of Soviet, and later Russ- strength is 72,100. ian, forces. As of Decem- the Black Sea and South Ossetia on the ber 2000, Russia is in compliance in Armed Forces: Azerbaijan has an Russian border tried to secede in the Georgia, but NATO has also said that it army of 62,000 with 262 main early 1990s. Moscow has been impli- must dismantle its bases there to honor battle tanks; a navy with 2,200 cated in supporting secessionist move- an agreement reached at the November sailors and six patrol and coastal ments in both regions. Russian support 1999 Organization for Security and Co- craft; and air and air defense for the separatists, who achieved de operation in Europe Istanbul summit. forces with 7,900 personnel and facto independence, was presumably Compliance on this point may not be 35 combat aircraft and 15 armed in retaliation for Georgia’s refusal to forthcoming. There are four bases in helicopters. join the Commonwealth of Indepen- Georgia which the Russians are loath to dent States (CIS). Georgia finally part with: Akhalkalaki on the southern Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, joined in 1993 after the West repeat- border with Turkey, Batumi on the The Military Balance, 2001–2002(Oxford: Oxford Uni- edly ignored the pleas of President Ed- Black Sea, Gudauta (Abkhazia), and versity Press for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2001). uard Shevardnadze for assistance. Russ- Vaziani near the capital, Tbilisi. Addi- ian forces (supposedly representing tionally, Russian peacekeeping forces CIS) deployed to Abkhazia in 1994, fol- stationed in Abkhazia continue to billion worth of arms from 1994 to lowing a Georgia-Abkhazia ceasefire strain relations. Dismantling Moscow’s 1997. Additionally, Russian ground agreement. In addition, Russian troops bases and withdrawing its forces forces with 74 main battle tanks, a have been in South Ossetia since 1992. remain thorny issues. MiG–29 squadron, and an air defense Tensions remain although ceasefires The Kremlin’s influence is also battery are deployed at a military base are in effect in both regions. prominent elsewhere in the region. It on Armenian territory. has a formal security pact with Arme- nia and supplied the country with $1 66 JFQ / Autumn/Winter 2001–02 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:39 AM Page 67 DeTemple South Caucusus Frunze Guryev Sea of Azov Astrakhan UKRAINE Krasnodar Simferopol’ RUSSIA KAZAKHSTAN N A Sochi T Chechnya Shevchenko S Black Sea Ordzhonikidze KI Groznyy E B GEORGIA Z P’ot’i Caspian Sea U T’bilisi Zonguldak AZERBAIJAN ARMENIA Baku TURKMENISTAN Ankara Yerevan Nagorno-Karabakh Euphrates River TURKEY Lake Tuz Ardabil Tigris River Tabriz IRAN Adana IRAQ Georgia Aleppo SYRIA Mosel Defense Budget: $22 million for 2001; the gross domestic product in 2000 was $4.7 billion ($5,289 per capita). Russian campaigns in Chechnya There is little likelihood that the Manpower: With a population of are another source of instability. Atten- Kremlin will change its policies. Russia 4,891,000, Georgia has a total of dant security issues include Moscow’s includes the South Caucasus in what it 590,000 men between the ages of constant allegations that Georgia and regards as its sphere of influence and 18 and 32. Active military strength Azerbaijan are serving as bases for exerts considerable leverage on the is 16,790. Reserves forces number Chechen rebels. The possibility that foreign and defense policies and 250,000. Georgia is being used as a transit coun- defense of the former Soviet states. try for fighters and weapons is remote Yielding to Russian pressure, President Armed Forces: Georgia has an since Chechens assisted Abkhaz seces- Shevardnadze softened his position on army of 8,620 with 90 main battle sionists in their fight for independence applying for NATO membership. tanks; a navy of 1,040 sailors with against Georgia. Nevertheless, the Tbilisi also announced that its internal 11 patrol and coastal craft; and an Kremlin has tried to force Tbilisi into troops would increase their patrols in air force with 1,330 personnel transferring control over the 70-kilo- the Pankisi Gorge near the border to with seven combat aircraft and meter Chechnya-Georgia border to block infiltration routes of Chechen three armed helicopters. Russian guards and may also try to guerrillas into Russia. pressure Baku into accepting Russian Moscow has also expressed alarm Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies, bases on Azerbaijan soil. NATO and at alleged NATO and U.S. encroach- The Military Balance, 2001–2002(Oxford: Oxford Uni- versity Press for the International Institute for Strategic the West have expressed grave concern ment on former Soviet territory, partic- Studies, 2001). about human rights abuses and the po- ularly the oil-rich Caspian basin. tential spillover of the conflict in the In addition to Russia’s role in the Caucasus. One analyst predicts that region, there are other major issues. from Azerbaijan in 1991. Seven years the Chechen war will “aggravate exist- Nagorno-Karabakh remains another after the ceasefire, prospects for resolv- ing conflicts and ignite new hot spots flashpoint. Azerbaijan and Armenia ing the conflict over the disputed terri- throughout the region.”2 fought a three-year war over that ethni- tory have improved slightly, with the cally Armenian Azeri autonomous re- U.S. administration taking a more ac- gion after it proclaimed independence tive mediating role. Renewed fighting Autumn/Winter 2001–02 / JFQ 67 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:39 AM Page 68 (cid:2) JFQ FORUM in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave, between Moscow and Tehran. Iran is al- however, would certainly undermine ready Russia’s third largest customer for regional stability. weapons and military training after China and India. The Russian-Iranian The Alliance Response initiative is clearly intended to block A wide range of South Caucasus NATO influence in the area and mo- security issues, including the situation nopolize energy corridors from the in Nagorno-Karabakh, have been dis- Caspian region to Europe. cussed regularly in the Euro-Atlantic Interest in the South Caucasus is Partnership Council (EAPC), which illustrated by the visits of the Secretary provides the overall framework for co- General to Georgia in September 2000 operation between NATO and partner and Armenia and Azerbaijan in Janu- nations. The council established an ary 2001. Outlining the general ap- open-ended ad hoc working group on proach guiding NATO engagement, the Caucasus to intensify conflict pre- Lord Robertson emphasized that Euro- vention and crisis management. This Aivazov) pean security is “inseparably linked to sfoubr rae gnioenwa l sgercouurpit cyo uarldc hfoitremc ttuhree baansids Shakh ttohladt ao fc oonthfeerre nccoeu notnr iRese.g”i oInna Tl bCioliosip ehre- hppcueaeraclipntt y iUt naonn ciddoo enoCv roe(dEolioUpnpe)a, r taaOit oirrongen agw niioniiztn ahEat uilto rhsontep a feobE, riua lriSntoedy-- Azerbaijani soldiers. Wide World Photos ( a“tshettihceou enmr imatoynro derf eiPsr esasctre utconrufee rr aeswhl leoi puda rerw peni.ete.hni. dgN.hsEA buoTornOor sp ht ehaoarawnet P/ United Nations. A well our neighbors are protected.”5 According to Giorgi Burduli, Geor- Enlarging Engagement gia’s First Deputy Foreign Minister, if the concept for “the stability pact in community through the EAPC and the PFP constitutes the chief NATO the Caucasus bears fruit, the role of the Partnership for Peace. We believe that tool for deepening military cooperation EAPC, along with other international partnership is pivotal to the role of the Al- in the South Caucasus. Members such organizations, would be substantial in liance in promoting security and stability as Turkey and the United States also terms of consultation and practical co- in the Euro-Atlantic region and con- provide military assistance on a bilateral operation.”3 He stated further that “re- tributes to the enhancement of the Al- basis that complements the partner- gional cooperation in the Caucasus is liance’s capabilities in crisis management. ship. After joining, each partner nation We therefore welcome discussions in consultation with NATO developed a the size and scope of PFP activities underway in the EAPC on its pos- two-year individual partnership plan sible role in conflict prevention which sets specific interoperability ob- have increased significantly and crisis management, and in de- jectives and the basis for expanded co- velopments to promote regional co- operation with the Alliance. still weak” and that EAPC should en- operation in Southeast Europe as well as The size and scope of PFP activi- courage the South Caucasus states to in the Caucasus and Central Asia.4 ties in the South Caucasus have in- continue using the ad hoc working creased significantly. Azerbaijan and NATO focuses on the South Cau- group, for example, to facilitate negoti- Georgia joined at the program’s incep- casus as it relates to European interests. ations between Armenia and Azerbai- tion in 1994 and have become two of Objectives include fostering regional jan to address the conflict over its most active constituents, using the security and stability through peace- Nagorno-Karabakh. Having an agree- partnership as a means to bring their time military engagement; ensuring ac- ment such as the U.S.-Baltic Charter or armed forces closer to NATO standards. cess to Caspian basin energy resources; the EU Stability Pact for Southeastern A Georgian infantry platoon currently combating nontraditional threats such Europe “would go a long way towards operates with a Turkish battalion as as international terrorism, drug traffick- diffusing regional conflicts and anchor part of the peacekeeping force in ing, and proliferation of weapons of these vulnerable states firmly with Kosovo (KFOR). Georgia’s KFOR role is mass destruction; and containing Russ- more powerful countries and interna- a source of great national pride and ian resurgence at the expense of the tional bodies.” demonstrates the country’s ability to sovereignty and territorial integrity of A regional security system under- work smoothly with allied peacekeep- Georgia and Azerbaijan. NATO is also pinned by NATO and EU would greatly ing forces. Azerbaijan also has an in- alarmed by the increased militarization enhance regional stability. According fantry platoon operating with Turkey’s on the southern borders of CIS. Fur- to the Secretary General: peacekeeping battalion. thermore, the West is concerned by the Azerbaijan’s and Georgia’s We continue to place a high priority rapidly developing security relationship 2000–2001 Individual Partnership Plans on the strengthening of our partnership focused on activities ranging from with all members of the Euro-Atlantic peacekeeping and disaster planning to 68 JFQ / Autumn/Winter 2001–02 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:39 AM Page 69 DeTemple Training near Tbilisi, Georgia. Aivazov) Shakh Photos ( World Wide P/ A English-language training and military forces from several countries, including and the United States—and partner na- exercises. Georgia hosted several activi- 100 Georgian marines from the battal- tions—Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, ties and joint exercises in 2001, includ- ion in Poti, practiced amphibious tech- Bulgaria, Kyrgyzstan, Macedonia, ing its first multilateral PFP exercise, niques in support of peacekeeping and Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, and Cooperative Partner, maritime and am- humanitarian relief. Switzerland—will take part in a com- phibious field training designed to in- Azerbaijan is already scheduled to puter-aided simulation. Azerbaijan also crease stability in the Black Sea region host its first PFP exercise, a peacekeep- conducts regional courses in civil-mili- and build confidence among the littoral ing staff drill designed to practice oper- tary cooperation at its military acad- states, including Bulgaria, Romania, ating a multinational brigade head- emy in Baku. Uniformed personnel Turkey, and Ukraine. Troops from five quarters according to established NATO from all the South Caucasus states at- NATO countries—France, Germany, command and control procedures, to tend NATO courses and seminars in cri- Italy, Turkey, and the United States—in include coordinating airlift, medical sis management and peacekeeping in addition to six partner nations—Azer- evacuation, and search and rescue for a addition to other exchange programs. baijan, Bulgaria, Georgia, Romania, peace support operation. Among its Azerbaijan and Georgia are under- Sweden, and Ukraine—were invited to themes are learning to work with relief going force restructuring and reorgani- participate. Forces included 4,000 mili- organizations, improving coordination zation with technical assistance from tary personnel, 40 warships, two sub- of aerial delivery of humanitarian relief NATO, Turkey, and the United States. marines, 12 fighters, and two military supplies, and utilizing aviation assets Turkey recently modernized the transport aircraft. The Alliance also such as transport helicopters. NATO Marneuli air base in southern Georgia committed portions of the Standing members—France, Germany, Greece, for $1.5 million. U.S. military coopera- Naval Force Mediterranean, composed Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain, Turkey, tion is designed to help the armed of destroyers and frigates. Amphibious forces develop the capabilities neces- sary to preserve territorial integrity and Autumn/Winter 2001–02 / JFQ 69 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:40 AM Page 70 (cid:2) JFQ FORUM become more self-sufficient in matters such as border security and military re- organization. U.S. European Command recently conducted an assessment of Georgia’s military and made recom- mendations for restructuring, includ- ing the creation of a rapid reaction force of up to three light brigades. Ukraine’s 11th Mechanized Infantry Brigade has been designated as the core unit to respond to crises, includ- ing natural disasters and civil emergen- cies, and is among the formations spearheading the transformation of Georgian land forces. Additionally, Special Operations Forces recently conducted training on demining in all three countries. This humanitarian effort was intended to help the three states deal with count- less land mines remaining from the Ar- menia-Azerbaijan and Abkhazia-Geor- gia disputes. The U.S.-sponsored activity brought together soldiers from Armenia and Azerbaijan for the first time since they fought over the Nagorno-Karabakh territory. Armenia has considered upgrad- ing its biennial Individual Partnership Plan and increasing cooperation with NATO within the PFP framework. Ad- miral Guido Venturoni, Chairman of the Military Committee, visited Arme- nia in March to discuss Alliance efforts to expand military cooperation and met with President Robert Kocharian, PDLiaireneifmu,e tAneers nmeMa enMidnti inFGsotiesertcnree erAsr anSCledh rMrgiaeeifn k Soiakafe rSlMk tiHasafiarfa.grn uAa,tr riiamuannned--, Misha Japaridze) nia also expressed interest in obtaining Photos ( NpdueAacTceedOk aeanesp siininsfgtoa rbnmacatetl a ailnigor nefoe. mrTmehnient vgoi nsai t c Urpe.raNot--. Agurmaredniniagn p tarorloiapmsent. Wide World P/ ing an Armenian peacekeeping unit A with NATO assistance within the PFP framework. Moreover, the country was enthusiastic about officer training in for seismological analysis with those of the experience gained by Ukraine and the West, English-language training for Greece, Italy, and the United Kingdom. EADRCC from flooding in the Trans- military personnel, and other opportu- Indeed, disaster preparedness is an Carpathian region in 1998. The sce- nities PFP can offer. area for expanding cooperation, espe- nario featured a command post exer- Along with peacekeeping, Arme- cially since the South Caucasus is prone cise followed by a field training drill. nia seeks to learn how to cope better to earthquakes and floods. Local states The first phase tested the procedures with natural disasters, particularly are keen to increase interaction with used by the Euro-Atlantic Disaster Re- earthquakes. One project combines the NATO in disaster planning. In late Sep- sponse Coordination Center (EADRCC) information systems of its institutes tember 2000, NATO and Ukraine con- at NATO Headquarters and national ducted a disaster relief exercise in the Trans-Carpathian region of western Ukraine. The exercise actually built on 70 JFQ / Autumn/Winter 2001–02 1429 DeTemple Pgs 3/13/02 8:40 AM Page 71 DeTemple role in allied and U.S. efforts to enhance regional security on Europe’s periphery. NATO engagement within the PFP framework should enable the South Caucasus to make steady progress toward interoperability with allied forces and regional security and stability. Additionally, the Alliance has outlined a coherent strategy for engagement based on Individual Part- nership Plans, the Planning and Re- Shakh Aivazov) vPthileaewn ps .Pe rTrofhoceersmses ,a eanffncoder tMas nwedmi llcb ahepresalhpbi ipilm itAipcertsoi ovonef Ctrearnesmfeorn oyf mhealrikcionpgters World Photos ( fuNtuOreT cEoSalition partners. JFQ to Georgia. Wide 1Anna Lindh, “Resolving a Frozen Con- P/ A flict: Neither Russia nor the West Should Try to Impose a Settlement on the Southern Caucasus,” Financial Times, February 20, disaster response coordination centers the Alliance mission. Integrating part- 2001. to meet a request for international as- ner nations into NATO-led peace sup- 2Igor Rotar, “Chechen Spark-Caucasian Powder Keg,” Perspective, vol. 10, no. 2 sistance from Ukraine. The second port operations is a political and mili- (November/December 1999). phase focused on disaster response tary necessity that remains critical to 3Speech by Giorgi Burduli, First Deputy teams from 11 countries operating as efforts to enhance security and stabil- Foreign Minister of Georgia, at the Euro-At- part of the Euro-Atlantic Disaster ity on Europe’s periphery. lantic Partnership Council Foreign Minis- Response Unit, marking the first time Second, PFP is the primary means ters Meeting, May 25, 2000. the unit was exercised as a whole. for non-NATO nations to move closer 4Communiqué, NATO Defense Minister- to the Alliance. Accordingly, ial Meeting in Brussels, December 5, 2000. the South Caucasus and Central partners now play a more active 5Speech by Lord George Robertson, role in determining the size and “Caucasus Today: Perspectives of Regional Asian states are keenly interested scope of their participation. Ac- Cooperation and Partnership with NATO,” Tbilisi, September 26, 2000. in greater cooperation with NATO tive involvement in PFP re- mains essential to joining the a Japaridze) Oretshcueer aanctdi vpitrioevsi siinocnlsu dfoerd lisfeea sruchp paonrtd, tbraasnedsf ooArnml lWiianengst cedere,n f pemnroosevd ieedlssi tnaangbd lai sd hwemvaeyelon optsf- otos (Mis mcleeadniicnagl ccoanret,a mwianteatre pd urrivifeircsa. tion, and ing inTtheirrodp,e trahbei liStoyu wthit hC NauAcTaOsu fso racnesd. P World Patterns for the Future Central Asian states are keenly inter- Wide Three trends have emerged in re- eNsAteTdO .i nIn g 1re9a9t9e,r Gceooorpgeiar ajtoiionne dw tihthe P/ A cent years. First, NATO military en- Planning and Review Process, a special gagement within the PFP framework program for defense planning coopera- increasingly aims to improve interop- tion within PFP intended to help allied erability between partner and allied and partner militaries prepare for com- forces. This is particularly important bined operations. Azerbaijan has also since the Alliance will play an ex- joined and has expressed strong interest tended role in future multinational in developing a Membership Action peace support operations such as the Plan in preparation for the possibility ongoing mission in Bosnia. Crisis man- (albeit remote) of applying for NATO agement and peacekeeping have membership. On the other hand, Azer- joined collective security as a staple of baijan and Georgia, which are contigu- ous and border Turkey, may be consid- ered serious candidates for accession at some stage as they will play a pivotal Autumn/Winter 2001–02 / JFQ 71