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REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE FormApprovedOMBNo. 0704-0188 Publicreportingburderforthiscollectionofinformationisestibatedtoaverage1hourperresponse,includingthetimeforreviewinginstructions,searchingexistingdatasources,gatheringandmaintainingthedataneeded,andcompleting andreviewingthiscollectionofinformation.Sendcommentsregardingthisburdenestimateoranyotheraspectofthiscollectionofinformation,includingsuggestionsforreducingthisburdertoDepartmentofDefense,Washington HeadquartersServices,DirectorateforInformationOperationsandReports(0704-0188),1215JeffersonDavisHighway,Suite1204,Arlington,VA22202-4302.Respondentsshouldbeawarethatnotwithstandinganyotherprovisionof law,nopersonshallbesubjecttoanypenaltyforfailingtocomplywithacollectionofinformationifitdoesnotdisplayacurrentlyvalidOMBcontrolnumber.PLEASEDONOTRETURNYOURFORMTOTHEABOVEADDRESS. 1.REPORTDATE(DD-MM-YYYY) 2.REPORTTYPE 3.DATESCOVERED(FROM-TO) 01-01-1995 AnnualTyphoonReport xx-xx-1995toxx-xx-1995 4.TITLEANDSUBTITLE 5a.CONTRACTNUMBER 1970AnnualTyphoonReport 5b.GRANTNUMBER Unclassified 5c.PROGRAMELEMENTNUMBER 6.AUTHOR(S) 5d.PROJECTNUMBER Slusser,RichardC.; 5e.TASKNUMBER Kinney,JohnJ.; 5f.WORKUNITNUMBER 7.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONNAMEANDADDRESS 8.PERFORMINGORGANIZATIONREPORT JointTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER 425LuapeleRoad PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103 9.SPONSORING/MONITORINGAGENCYNAMEANDADDRESS 10.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SACRONYM(S) NavalPacificMeteorologyandOceanographyCenter 11.SPONSOR/MONITOR'SREPORT JoingTyphoonWarningCenter NUMBER(S) 425LuapeleRoad PearlHarbor,HI96860-3103 12.DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITYSTATEMENT APUBLICRELEASE , 13.SUPPLEMENTARYNOTES SeeAlsoADM001257,2000AnnualTropicalCycloneReportJoingTyphoonWarningCenter(CDincludes1959-1999ATCRs).Block1and Block3shouldbe1970. 14.ABSTRACT ThisreportispublishedannuallyandsummarizesWesternNorthPacificTropicalCyclones.AnnexAisaddedtosummarizeTropical Cyclonesfrom180degreeseastwardtotheNorthAmericanCoast. 15.SUBJECTTERMS 16.SECURITYCLASSIFICATIONOF: 17.LIMITATION 18. 19.NAMEOFRESPONSIBLEPERSON OFABSTRACT NUMBER Fenster,Lynn PublicRelease [email protected] 236 a.REPORT b.ABSTRACT c.THISPAGE 19b.TELEPHONENUMBER Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified InternationalAreaCode AreaCodeTelephoneNumber 703767-9007 DSN 427-9007 StandardForm298(Rev.8-98) PrescribedbyANSIStdZ39.18 U. S. FLEET WEATHER CENTRAL JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER COMNAVMARIANAS BOX 12 FPO SAN FRANCISCO 96630 RICHARD C. SLUSSER Captain, United States Navy COMMANDING JOHN J. R. KINNEY Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER STAFF &@RJerry D. Jarre11, USN . ... CAPT David’’F.””SoI&~”-U”~~~– CAPT Charles D. Ables, USAF lLT Charles R. Holliday, USAF LTJG Richard A. Wagoner, USNR ENS Richard H. Johnson, USNR TSGT William W. Harra, USAF AG1 Donald G. Stetler, USN SSGT Travers D. Hanna III, USAF SGT James R. Stevens, USAF SGT Charles,C. Johnson, USAF AGAN David P. Bougher, USN AGAiiDavid L. Balint, USN Miss Ann N. Smoot CONTRIBUTOR lLT Brian E. Heckman, USAF, 54 WRS 1970 ANNUAL TYPHOON REPORT FOREWORD This report is published annually and summarizes Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones. Annex A summarizes tropical cyclones from 180 degrees eastward to the North American Coast. When directed by CINCPAC in May 1959, CINCPACFLT redesig- nated FleetWeatCheenrtral Guam as Fleet Weather Central/Joint Typhoon Warning Center (FWC/JTWC), Guam with the following responsibilities: 1. To provide warnings to U. S. Government agencies for all tropical cyclones north of the equator and west of 180 degrees longitude to coast of Asia and Malay Peninsula. 2. To determine tropical cyclone reconnaissance require- ments and assign priorities. 3. To conduct investigative and post-analysis programs including preparation of the Annual Typhoon Report. 4. To conduct tropical cyclone forecasting and detection research as practicable. Air Force Asian Weather Central at Fuchu, coordinating with U. S. Navy Fleet Weather Facility Yokosuka,was designated as alternate JTWC in case of failure of FWC/JTWC Guam. The JTWC is an integral part of FWC/JTWC Guam and is authorized to be manned by three Air Force and three Navy officers and five enlisted mean from each service. The senior Air Force officer is designated as Director, JTWC. The Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Warning System con- sists of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, the U. S. Air Force 54th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron stationed at Andersen Air Force Base, Guam and U. S. Navy Airborne Early Warning Squadron ONE stationed at Naval Air Station, Agana, Guam. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Honolulu is responsible for the area from 180° eastward to lQO”W and north of the equator. Warnings are issued in coordination with the FLEWEACEN Pearl Harbor and the Air Force Central Pacific Forecast Center, Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii. The EasternPaHcuirfriiccane Center (EPHC), San Francisco is responsible for the area east of 140°N and north of the equator. ‘darningsare issued in coordination with the FLEWEACEN Alameda and the Air Force Hurricane Liaison Officer, McClellan Air Force Base, California. “ The coordinating agencies under CINCPACFLT and CINCPACAF are responsible for further dissemination and, if necessary> local modification of tropical cyclone warnings to U. S. military agencies. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS page Chapter 1 Operational Procedures A. General-------------------------------------- 1- 1 B. Analysis and Data Sources __________ _________ 1- 1 c. Forecast Aids -----___—________-__________--- 1- 5 D. Forecasting Procedures -________--________-__ 1- 6 E. Warnings --—------—-----—-——___-------------- 1- 6 F. Prognostic Reasoning Message --—-------—-—--- 1- 6 G. Tropical weather Summary _________-—_____---- 1- 7 H. Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert ----—------- 1- ? I. References ---------------------------------- 1- 7 Chapter 2 Reconnaissance A. General ---—---—--—----------—- ----—--------— 2- 1 B. Reconnaissance Requirements -----—---------—- 2- 1 c. Evaluation of Data -------————_____-_________ 2- 1 1). Peripheral Data --_____—__________---------- 2- 2 E. Communications -------------_-—---- -------—-- 2- 4 F. Aircraft Reconnaissance Summary ------------- 2- 6 G. Reconnaissance Effectiveness ---------------- 2- 8 Chapter 3 Technical Notes A. Comparison of Objective Techniques ---------- 3- 1 B. Typhoon Forecast Error Improvement ---------- 3- 6 c. Classic Example of Fujiwhara Interaction ---- 3-13 D. An Evaluation of Aerial Reconnaissance Fix Accuracies ----_—--------_-----___—_--------- 3-16 E. Miscellaneous Satellite Bulletin (MSB) Data - 3-22 F. Note on Optimum Altitude for Recon of Tropical Disturbance ---------_______________ 3-23 G. Tropical Cyclone Intensity Verification ----- 3-30 H. A Climatological Study of Super Typhoons ---- 3-35 I. Frequency of Tropical Cyclones in the Western Pacific --------------_-------------- 3-42 J. References ---------------_____-------------- 3-44 Chapter 4 Summary of Tropical Cyclones 1970 A. Tabular Summary ----------------------------- 4- 1 B. Composite Track Charts ----------------- ----- 4- 2 c. General Summary ----------------------------- 4- 5 D. Tropical Storm and Depression Position Data - 4- 9 E. Forecast Verification Summary --------------- 4-16 F. Confidence Forecasting ---------------------- 4-22 G. Summary of Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts 1970 -- ----- - —-------------- ----— ----- - - -- - - - 4-24 H. References ----------------- ----------------- 4-25 iii page Chap’ter 5 Individual Typhoons of 1970 A. Typhoon NANCY ------—---------________________ 5- 1 B. Typhoon OLGA -------------------------------- 5- 9 c. Typhoon WILDA -------------------------_-____ 5-17 D. Typhoon ANITA ----------------------_--______ 5-27 E. Typhoon BILLIE -------_-_________-___.__---__ 5-35 F. Typhoon CLARA ------------------------------- 5-43 G. Typhoon GEORGIA ---—___-_____________-_-_____ 5-51 H. Typhoon HOPE -------------------------------- 5-59 1. Typhoon IRIS -------------------------------- 5-67 J. Typhoon JOAN ----_—_----_____---___--________ 5-73 K. Typhoon KATE -------------------------------- 5-83 L. Typhoon PATSY --------___.___________________ 5-91 M. References ---.-—--------—-_______-__________ 5-101 N. Definitions and Abbreviations ------_________ 5-102 Annex Summary of Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific Composite Track Charts for 1970 Eastern and Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones ----------- AN_ 1 Summary of the 1970 Eastern Pacific Season -- AN- 4 Tropical Depression Position Data ----------- AN- 7 Tropical stOI?m position Data ---------------- A~~_8 Individual Hurricane Data for I_gI’O ---------- AN-12 Hurricane FRANCESCA ----------------------- AN-13 Hurricane LORRAINE ------------------------ AN-17 Hurricane PATRICIA ------------------------ AN-21 Summary of the 1970 Central Pacific Season -- AN-25 Tropical stOZTIIposition Data ---------------- AN-26 Individual Hurricane Data for 1970 ---------- AN-27 Hurricane DOT ----------------------------- AN_27 4ppendix Abbreviations, Definitions, and Distribution 1. Abbreviations ‘--------------------------- AP- 1 2. Definitions ‘----------------------------- AP- 1 3. Distribution ----------------------------- AP- 4 . iv CHAPTER 1 OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES A. GENERAL Services provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) include forecasts of tropical cyclone formation, intensity, direction and speed of movement and areal extent of damaging winds . The primary products of JTWC providing these services are the Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued when formation of a tropical cyclone is suspect, and tropical cyclone warnings issued in 1970 at 0500Z plus every six hours whenever tropical cyclones existed in the JTWC area. FLEWEACEN Guam provides computer and meteorological/oceano- graphic analysis support for JTWC. Communications services for JTWC are provided by the Nimitz Hill Message Center of NAVCOMMSTA Guam. Prior to the 1970 typhoon season the Fleet Weather Central Guam Communications Center was consolidated with the larger Nimitz Hill Message Center. This caused many excessive delays in JTWC’S outgoing traffic (primarily warnings, alerts, etc.) during the first few storms of the season. However after much effort on the part of the Nimitz Hill Message Center staff and the Operations Department of Fleet Weather Central Guam, exces- sive delays were greatly reduced by October 1970. The use of FLASH precedence on all warnings to U. S. forces afloat virtu- ally eliminated excessive delays to these customers. B. ANALYSES AND DATA SOURCES 1. FWC ANALYSES: a. Surface polar stereographic projection analysis, Northern Hemisphere, fiesternPacific area; 0000Z, 0600Z, 1200Z, and 1800Z. b. Surface micro-analysis of South China Sea region; Ooooz, 0600Z, 1200Z, and 1800Z. c. Surface mercator projection analysis, Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Western Pacific and Indian Ocean area; 0600Z and 1800Z. d. Sea surface temperature charts; daily. 2. JTWC ANALYSES: a. Gradient level (3,000 feet) streamline analysis and nephanalysis of satellite-observed significant cloudiness; OOOOZ and 12002. b. 700 mb, 500 mb, and 200 mb mercator projection con- tour analysis; 0.000Zand 12002. 1-1 c. Reconnaissance data. Observations from weather reconnaissance aircraft are plotted on large scale sectional charts. d. Time cross sections of selected tropical stations. e. Time sections of surface reports for selected tropi- cal stations. f. Additional and more frequent analyses similar to those above during periods of tropical cyclone activity. 3. SATELLITE DATA: The quantity and quality of satellite data continued to increase during the 1970 typhoon season. ESSA-8 continued to be the primary source of satellite data during the morning hours. These data were interspersed with NIMBUS III satellite passes. In February 1970 the first ITOS satellite became operational providing afternoon satellite coverage, and in December 1970 the second of the ITOS series was launched giving additional afternoon coverage. During the night both ITOS-1 and NIP?BIJSIII IR cover- age was received until 25 September when the NIMBUS equipment failed. Only the center portion of a DRIR pass gives an undis- torted view of cloud patterns, therefore there is a signifi- cant gap between each sub-orbital track which is not viewed clearly. The chance of a disturbance being within the undis- torted portion of the satellite’s swath was significantly reduced when the NIMBUS III equipment failed. The IR passes were also used for briefing reconnaissance crews making early morning investigative flights into tropical disturbances. Excellent satellite coverage was received between 120°E and 1600E using Fleet Weather Central Guam’s APT equip- ment. ~leet Weather Central Pearl Harbor furnished live APT coverage for area east of 160°E via dedicated landline. Sparse coverage of the area west of 1200E was furnished by Clark AFB by means of a taped pass relayed over AUTOVON. Unfortunately the poor quality of the taped data reduced its usefulness. 4. RADAR : Land radar reports, when available, were used for tracking tropical cyclones during the 1970 typhoon season. Once a storm moved within range of a land radar site, reports were usually received hourly. Figure 1-1 shows the network of land radar stations in the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia. Most of the major 1-2