AD-A285 097 1993 ANNUAL TROPICAL... CYCLONE REPORT" JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER GUAM, MARIANA ISLANDS 9 1 94-31343 S~ St~lll , I J,1, , ii; I,,, I I, , ,I . i.a. I! IA Front Cover Caption: As viewed on 301604Z Sept(cid:127).nber by :.he Andersen AFB, Guam Next Generation (Doppler Weather) Radar (NEXRAD), th-. bands of precipitation associated with Tropical Storm Ed (25W) tightly coil just to the west of the island.. U. S. NAVAL PACIFIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY CENTER WEST JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER COMNAVMARIANAS PSC 489, BOX 12 FPO AP 96536-0051 Accesion For NTIS CRA&I DTiCU lAIB U:*a.m:o(cid:127)::.ccd _ JAMES F. ETRO B y ....... . ..... .............................. D.-t. ib:tioi: / CAPTAIN, UNITED STATES NAVY COMMANDING OFFICER Avldility Co.ius AA,! J i or Dist flil PETER A. MORSE LIEUTENANT COLONEL, UNITED STATES AIR FORCE DIRECTOR, JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER COMMANDER, DETACHMENT 1, 633d OPERATIONS SUPPORT SQUADRON OF T1 -N'r of- . * *- 0 - w ~C. The work on which ihis report is based was supported in part by funds provided by the Office of Naval Research (;rant AN00014-914J1721 STAFF JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER LCDR ANTHONY A. MARTINEZ USN TDO. DEPUTY DIRECTOR LCDR TERESA M. GOBEL USN TDO. DEPUTY DIRECTOR LCDR ERNEST P. PETZRICK USN TDO *CAPT STEPHEN C. HALLIN USAF TDO. TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT CAPT ELVABETH B. BORELLI USAF TDO, TECHNIQUE DEVELOPMENT CAPT JOHN A. RUPP USAF TDO *LT THOMAS H. CECERE USN TDO LT GREGORY SALVATO USN TDO LT PAUL E MA'1IHEWS USN TDO **LT STACY R. STEWART USNR TDO AG2 SCOTT E. McKEE USN TDA, LPO AG2 BONNIE J. CAMPBELL USN TDA, STATISTICS *AG3 MARK A. WIREMAN USN TDA SRA VINCENT L. PETRASEK USAF TDA SRA LESLEY R. ROUELL USAF TDA *AGAN PHARAOH 1. BELL USN TDA AGAN GARY M. VINES USN TDA AIC SEAN R. VOLOM USAF TDA *AIC STACY L. SIMON USAF TDA DET 1, 633 OSS CAPT CHRISTOPHER K. BROOKS USAF OIC. USPACOM SAT NETWORK *CAPT SCOTT C. JACOBS USAF DATA DEVELOPMENT *MSGT JOY L. HARDING USA v- SAT FORECASTER. NCOIC *MSGT PHILLIP A. ROSEBERRY USAF SAT FORECASTER *MSGT TERESA A. deBOER USAF sxr FORECASTER *MSGT WILLIAM GATES. JR. USAF SAT I ORECASTER MSGT KARL H. STEVENS USAF SAT FORECASTER. NCOIC TSGT VINCENT T. AGUON USAF CHIEF INFORMATION MANAGEMENT *TSGT JEFFREY E. OAKES USAF SAT FORECASTER TSGT THEODORE V. MUSTAIKES, JR. LISAF SAT FORECASTER *TSGT JAMES G. BROCK USAF SAT FORECASI ER TSGT RICHARD J. CONKLIN I .SAF DATA DEVEI.OPMENT TSGT HAROLD D. E1-ERT ULSAF SAT FORECASTER SSGT RICHARD D. JACOBSEN USAF SAT F)RECASTER SSGT JEWEL K. TAPPY USAF SAT FORECASTER ATCR STAFF CAPT JOHN S. SHATTUCK USAF TDO, HEST TRACK OFFICER, EDtTOR CAPT DAN B. MUNDELL USAF TLX). STATISTICS OFFICER MR FRANK H. WELLS USN TECHNICAL. EDITOR AG3 DAVID L. HAZEL OEJFN TDA. GRAPHICS AGAN ANDRESG.GRANT USN TDA, GRAPHICS UNIVERSITY OF GUAM / JTWC RESEARCH LIAISON DR MARK A. LANDER TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH MR CHARLES P. GUARD TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH * TRANSFERRED DURING 1993 ** ACTIVE DUTY TRAINING S~ii FOREWORD The Annual Tropical Cyclone Report is past four years; the men and women of the prepared by the staff of the Joint Typhoon Alternate Joint Typhoon Warning Center for Warning Center (JTWC), a combined Air standing in for JTWC which was briefly Force/Navy organization operating under the incapacitated after Guam experienced a command of the Commanding Officer, U.S. magnitude 8.2 earthquake; Fleet Numerical Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Meteorology and Oceanography Center Center West (NAVPACMETOCCEN (FLENUMETOCCEN) for their unfaltering WEST)/Join, Typhoon Warning Center, Guam. operational and software support; the Naval The JTWC was founded 1 May 1959 when the Research Laboratory for its dedicated research U.S. Commander-in-Chief Pacific and forecast improvement initiatives; the Air (USCINCPAC) forces directed that a single Force Global Weather Central for continued tropical cyclone warning center be established satellite support; the 633d Communications for the western North Pacific region. The Squadron, Defense Meteorological Satellite operations of JTWC are gnided by Program (DMSP) Site 1 at Nimitz IlilL. Guam; USCINCPAC Instruction 3140.1V. and the Operations and Equipment Support The mission of JTWC is multifaceted and departments of NAVPACM1TO'CLN WEST, includes: Guam for their high quality support all the men 1. Continuous monitoring of all tropical and women of the ships and facilbties ashore weather activity in the Northern and Southern throughout the JTWC area of responsibility Hemispheres, from 1800 east longitude ( , and espcially on Guarn,, ,ho' "t"o'' the westward to the east coast of Africa, and the observations that became the ba2ti'(cid:127) for our prompt issuance of appropriate advisories and analyses, forecasts and post analy.:-s; the staff alerts when tropical cyclone development is at National Oceanic and Anraospheric anticipated. Administration (NOAA) riational 2. Issuance of warnings on all significant Environmental Satellite, Data, and lnfomation tropical cyclones in the above area of Service (NESDIS) for thcir tropical cyclone responsibility, position and intensity estimates; the personnel 3. Determination of requirements for of Tropical Cyclone Motion-1993 (TCM-9 ) for tropical cyclone reconnaissance and assignment sharing their data and understanding of tr,.pical of appropriate priorities, cyclones; the personnel -9f the Pacific Fleet 4. Post-storm analysis of significant tropical Audio-Visual Center, Guam for their assistance cyclones occurring within the western North in the reproduction of satellite imagery fo7 this Pacific and North Indian Oceans. report; the Navy Publications and Printing 5. Cooperation with the Naval Research Service Branch Office, Guanm; Dr. Robert F. Laboratory, Monterey, California on operational Abbey Jr. and the Office of Naval Research for evaluation of tropical cyclone models and their support to the University of Guam for the forecast aids, and the development of new JTWC Research Liaisons to JTWC; the techniques to support operational forecast University of Guam Research Liaison's for their requirements- important contrihutions to this publication. Dr. Special thanks to: Captain Donald A. Mark Lander for his :raining efforts, Maumner for his leadership, Lieutenant Colonel .uggestions and valuable insights'; and, AG3 (Retired) Charles P. Guard for his outstanding l)ave ltlazcl and AGAN Andy Grant for their contributions and support to the JTWC over the cxccllent dc.sktop publishing and graiphics iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The 1993 tropical season was a Depicted on the cover graphic is challenging period for the Joint Typhoon Tropical Storm Ed seen from the Guam Warning Center, Guam (JTWC). Although the NEXRAD. The highlight of the season for our North Indian Ocean stayed relatively inactive local community was that Guam enjoyed a and the Southern Hemisphere followed respite from the five typhoons of 1992, climatology; the western North Pacific was very recording only a single gust of 53 knots. active with 38 tropical cyclones. Overall The JTWC track forecast errors for the activity was 15 percent above normal. JTWC western North Pacific were 112, 213, and 325 issued 1146 warnings distributed over 280 days. nautical miles at the 24, 48, and 72-hour points. Multiple-storm scenarios in our 53 million This amounts to four, six, and seven percent square mile area were frequent, occurring for 91 improvements on the fifteen-year averages. days with two or more cyclones and 29 days The climatology-persistence model, CLIPER, with three or more. Det 1, 633 Operational uailed JTWC by 15 percent with errors of 129, Support Squadron and the USPACOM Satellite 245, and 3(8 nautical miles. Forecast intensity Reconnaissance Network supported us with errors were also better than historical averages more than 4800 fixes. The 67 storms in the with 10.7, 17.4. and 22.9 k,,ols compared to JTWC area of responsibility represented nearly 12.5, 19.1, and 23.5. Track forecast errors for 80 peicent of the world's tropical cyclones. the North Indian Ocean and Southern The season highlights included Ed and Hemisphere were also good. The two "well- Fli's Fujiwhar4 coeflontailuji fui dtiliulala:. behaved" .sluf,(cid:127),r :1 ihj¢ 1,,|hellr". . sltcudj" Yancy striking southern Japan as a thirty-year errors of 125, 198, and 231 nautical miles typhoon, the preponderance of late season representing four, ten, and 30 percent storms bringing a record 20 systemv to the improvements. Forecast errors on the 27 Philippines, the multiple-centered I I(X) nautical Southern Hemisphere cyclones %%ere the lowest mile circulation of Hattie, and the Next in JTWC's 12-year history of forecasting in the Generation Doppler Weather Radar's region at 102 and 199 nautical miles for the 24 (NEXRAD) introduction to tropical and 48-hour forccast points. meteorology. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREW ORD ...................................................................................................................................... iii EXECUTIVE SUM M ARY ................................................................................................................... iv 1. OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES .................................................................................................... 1 1.1 G e n eral ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.2 Data Sources .............................................................................................................. 1 1.3 Comm unications ......................................................................................................... 4 1.4 Data Displays ....................................................................................................................... 5 1.5 A n aly ses .............................................................................................................................. 6 1.6 Forecast Procedures ........................................................................................................ 6 1.7 Wa rn in g s .............................................................................................................................. 9 1.8 Prognostic Reasoning M essages ................................................................................... 10 1.9 Tropical Cyclone Form ation Alerts .............................................................................. 10 1.10 Significant Tropical We ather Advisories ....................................................................... 10 2. RECONNAISSANCE AND FIXES ......................................................................................... 11 2 .1 G e n e ra l ............................................................................................................................... II 2.2 Reconnaissance Availability .......................................................................................... 11 2.3 Satellite Reconnaissance Summary ................................................................................... 11 2.4 Radar Reconnaissance Summary ................................................................................... 14 2. 5 Tropical Cyclone Fix Data . ..................................... ............. ............ 14 3. SUMMARY OF WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEAN TROPICAL CYCLONES .............................................................. 19 3.1 We stern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones .................................................................... 19 Individual Tropical Cyclone Narratives 01W TD ............................ 36 14W TY Steve .................. 77 26W TY Flo ..................... 116 02W TS Irma .................... 39 15W TD ............................ 82 27W TS Genc .................. 119 03W TD ............ 44 16W TY Tasha ........ 84 28W TD ............ 122 04W TD ............................ 47 17W TY Vernon ............... 87 29W TS Hattie ................. 125 05W TS Jack ..................... 50 18W TS Winona ............... 90 30W TY Ira ..................... 131 06W STY Koryn ............... 52 19W STY Yancy ............... 93 31W TS Jeana .................. 14 C7W TD ............................ 55 01C TY Keoni ................. 96 32W TD ........................... 137 08W TY Lewis ................ 57 20W TS Zola ......... 98 33W TD ............ 140 09W TS Marian ................ 61 21W TY Abe .................... 101 34W TY Kylc .................. 142 IOW TY Nathan ........ 62 22W TY Berky. ........ C4 35W TY Lola ........ 145 11W TS O clma .................. 67 23W TY Cecil .................. 106 36W TY Manny ............... 148 12W TY Percy .................. 70 24W TY Dot ..................... 109 37W TY Nell ................... 153 13W TY Robyn ................ 73 25W STY Ed .................... III v 3.2 North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones .................................................. 156 Individual Tropical Cyclone Narratives Tropical ry,]. r1g E= TCOIA ....... ........... 159 TC 02B ... .................. 161 4. SUMMARY OF SOUTH PACIFIC AND SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN "IR O PICA L C Y C LO N ES ..................................................................................... 165 4 .1 G eneral ................................................................................................... 16 5 4.2 South Pacific and South Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones .................... 165 5. SUMMARY OF FORECAST VERIFICATION ................................................. 171 5.1 A nnual Forecast Verification ................................................................. 171 5.2 Comparison of Objective Techniques ................................................ 186 5.3 Te sting and R esults ................................................................................ 189 6. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING V'RIFICATION STATISTICS ................ 195 6 .1 G e n e ra l ................................... ............................................................... 19 5 6.2 Warning Verification Statistics .................................. 195 7. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUPPORT SUM MARY. .............................................. 225 7.1 Tropical Cyclone l-orecastert' Iefercncc Guide .................. ........ ...... 225 7.2 Automated Tropical Cyclonc Forccatsting Swsxcm (Al'('I:) .pgvadc ...... 225 7.3 Prototype Automated Tropical Cyclone I landbtak (PAl'CltI) ............ 225 7.4 TCM -93 M ini-hlcld I-xpcrmi cmt ....... ............................................... 225 7.5 Tropical Synoptic Analsi,, (cid:127)odcrlli7a.tion aind hIprovcnmcnt P roj e c t ............. ............. ................................................................ ........ 2 2 6 7.6 MotnsK(i;il Interaction., Leading to Suddcn lropicad Cyclone Track C h a n g es ........................ . ... ................ ............................... ................. 2 2 7 7 .7 H ybrid F o recast A id s ...................... ...... . ........... ............ ................. 227 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................................... 229 APPE'NDIX A - I)efinitions .......................................... 232 APPENDIX B - Naaes for Tropical Cyclone% in the Wctcrn North Pacific OXcean and South China Sea ....... ..................... 235 A PPE N D IX C - C ontractions .. ....................................................................... 22 6 APPENDIX D - Past Annual Tropical Cyclone lcports............................... 24.) APPENDIX E -Distribution I.ist ........................ ............... 241 vi 1. OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES 1.1 GENERAL 1.2 DATA SOURCES The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1.2.1 COMPUTER PRODUCTS provides a variety of routine products and ser- Numerical and statistical guidance are available vices to the organizations within its area of from the USN Fleet Numerical Meteorology responsibility (AOR), including: and Oceanography Center (FLENUMETOC- CEN) at Monterey, California. These products 1.1.1 SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEA- along with selected ones from the National THER ADVISORY - Issued daily or more Meteorological Center (NMC) Suitland frequently as needed, to describe all tropical Maryland are received through the Naval disturbances and their potential for further Environmental Data Network (NEDN), the development during the advisory period. A sep- Naval Environmental Satc-.ilite Network arate bulletin is issued for the western Pacific (NESN), and by microcomputer dial-up connec- and the Indian Ocean. tions using military and commercial telephone lines. Numerical guidance is also received from 1.1.2 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION international sources as well. ALERT - Issued in a specified area when synoptic, satellite, or other germane data indi- 1.2.2 CONVENTIONAL DATA - These data cate that the development of a significant tropi- sets are comprised of land and shipboard sur- cal cyclone is likely within 12 to 24 hours. face observations, and enroute meteorological observations from commercial and military air- 1.1.3 TROPICAL CYCLONE/ TROPICAL craft (AIREPS) recorded within six hours of DEPRESSION WARNING - Issued periodi- synoptic times, and cloud-motion winds d,-rived cally throughout each day to provide forecasts from satellite data. The conventional data is of position, intensity, and wind distribution for hand- and computer-plotted, and hand-analyzed tropical cyclones in JTWC's AOR. in the tropics for the surface/gradient and 200- mb levels. These analyses are prepared twice 1.1.4 PROGNOSTIC REASONING MES- daily from OOOOZ and 1200Z synoptic data. SAGE - Issued with warnings for tropical Also, FLENUMETOCCEN supplies JTWC storms, typhoons and super typhoons in the with computer generated analyses and prog- western North Pacific to discuss the rationale noses, from OOOOZ and 1200Z synoptic data, at for the content of the specific JTWC warning. the surface, 850-nib, 700-mb, 500-mb, 400-mb, and 200-mb levels, deep-layer-mean winds, 1.1.5 PRODUCT CHANGES - The con- wind shear, and geopotentiakl height-change tents and availability of the above JTWC prod- charts. ucts are set forth in USCINCPACINST 3140.1V. Changes to USCINCPACINST 1.2.3 SATELLITE RECONNAISSANCE 3140.1V, and JTWC products and services are Meteorological satellite imagery recorded at proposed and discussed at the Annual Tropical USAFAJSN ground sites and USN ships supply Cyclone Conference. day and night coverage in JTWC's AOR. Interpretation of these satellite data provides tropical cyclone positions and estimates of cur- rent and forecast intensities (Dvorak, 1984). WESTPAC tropical cyclone season by a Naval The USAF tactical satellite sites and Air Force Oceanographic Office-contracted C-13(0 air- Global Weather Central (AFGWC) currently craft. receive and analyze special sensor These buoys transmit data to National microwave/imager (SSM/l) data to provide Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's locations of tropical cyclones of which the cen- (NOAA) Television and Infrared Opcrational ter is obscured by cirrus clouds, and estimates Satellite - Next Generation (TIROS-N) polar of 35-kt (18 rn/sec) wind radii near tropical orbiting satellites, which in turn both store and cyclones. Use of satellite reconnaissance is dis- immediately retransmit the data. If the satellite cussed further in section 2.3, Satellite retransmission can be received by Guam, ITWC Reconnaissance Summary. acquires the drifting buoy observations directly via a Local User's Terminal ([UT). 1.2.4 RADAR RECONNAISSANCE -- Additionally, the data stored aboard the satel- Land-based radar observations are used to posi- lites are recovered via Service ARGOS, tion tropical cyclones. Once a well-defined processed, and then distributed to operational tropical cyclone moves within the range of centers worldwide over the Global land-based radar sites, radar reports are invalu- Telecommunications System (GTS) and able for determination of position, movement, Automated Weather Network (AWN) via the and, in the case of Doppler radar, storm struc- National Weather Service (NWS) ture and wind information. JTWC's use of radar Telecommunications Gateway in Silver Springs, reports during 1993 is discussed in section 2.4, Maryland. Radar Reconnaissance Summary. 1.2.7 AUTOMATED METEOROLOGICAL 1.2.5 AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE - OBSERVING STATIONS (AMOS) - Through Until the summer of 1987, dedicated aircraft a cooperative effort between the COMNAVME- reconnaissance was used routinely to locate and TOCCOM, the Department of the Interior, and determine the wind structure of tropical NOAA/NWS to increase data available for trop- cyclones. Now, aircraft fixes are only available ical analysis and forecasting, a network of 20 via radar reports from transiting jet aircraft or AMOS stations is being installed in the from weather reconnaissance aircraft involved Micronesian islands (see Tables 1-1 and 1-2). in tropical cyclone research missions. Six fixes Previous to this effort, two sites were installed were received from aircraft supporting the in the Northern Mariana Islands at Saipan and Tropical Cyclone Motion-1993 (TCM-93) Rota through a joint venture between the Navy experiment, and NOAA/NWS. The site at Saipan has since beer, moved to Tinian. Since September of 1.2.6 DRIFTING METEOROLOGICAL 1991, the capability to transmit data via Service BUOYS - In 1989, the Commander, Naval ARGOS and NOAA polar orbiting satellites has Meteorology and Oceanography Command been available Is a backup to regular data trans- (COMNAVMETOCCOM) put its Integrated mission to the Geostationary Operational Drifting Buoy Plan (1989-1994) into action to Environmental Satellite (GOES) West, and meet USCINCPACFLT requirements that more recently for sites to the west of Guam, to included tropical cyclone warning support. In the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological 1993, 19 drifting buoys, which included 16 Satellite (GMS). Upgrades to existing sites are mini-meteorological (MINI-MET) and three also being accomplished as the opportunity aris- larger TOGA buoys, were deployed during the es to enable access to the ARGOS-system. 2