________________________________________________________________________ DRY SEASON FIXED-WING AERIAL SURVEY OF ELEPHANTS AND WILDLIFE IN NORTHERN BOTSWANA SEPTEMBER – NOVEMBER 2010 Michael Chase Elephants Without Borders Moremi Game Reserve Tel: ++267 6250505 Email: [email protected] June 2011 DRY SEASON FIXED-WING AERIAL SURVEY OF ELEPHANTS AND WILDLIFE IN NORTHERN BOTSWANA Michael Chase1,2 May 2011 1 Elephants Without Borders, P.O. Box 682, Kasane, Botswana, and 2 San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research, 15600 San Pasqual Valley Road, Escondido, CA 92027-7000, U.S.A. Elephants Without Borders Department of Wildlife and National Parks Zoological Society of San Diego This survey was conducted jointly by Elephants Without Borders, the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (Botswana), and the Zoological Society of San Diego. The opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the Department of Wildlife and National Parks, the Zoological Society of San Diego or any of the donors who have helped fund this aerial survey. No part of this report may be reproduced without the prior written permission of the author and copyright owner(s). ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This aerial survey of wildlife over northern Botswana was commissioned by Elephants Without Borders. Funding for the aerial survey was largely received through a grant from the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP) under the Conservation Trust Fund (CTF/2010/56). Additional funding was received from Zoological Society of San Diego, Madeleine and Jerry Delman Cohen, Mr. Brett Warren, Nathan Jamieson Memorial Fund and Afriscreen Films. Kwando Safaris and Elephant Back Safaris (Pty) Ltd provided additional funding for the survey over their concessions. Anna Songhurst is acknowledged for her support of the aerial survey over the Okavango Panhandle, and for making data available to complement this report. I appreciate the assistance provided by Mr. E.B. Moabi and Ms. S. Nkwane from the Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism. DWNP personnel, Dr. Cyril Taolo, Dr. G. Masunga, Mr. B. Othomile, Ms. Jibajiba, N.E. Ntsima, Moremi Game Reserve and Chobe National Park wardens and wildlife scouts are acknowledged for their help. The DWNP are acknowledged for their ongoing support of Elephants Without Borders elephant ecology research in northern Botswana. The Ngamiland rainfall data and Okavango River water flow rates were kindly provided by the Department of Water Affairs. I acknowledge, with gratitude, the support provided by Mr. Steve Nolan, Dr. Larry Patterson, Mr. and Mrs. John Chase, Dr. Matt Anderson, Dr. Piotr Wolski, Mr. Kai Collins, Ms. Debbie Peake, Prof. Curt Griffin, Mr. Adrian Dandridge, Mr. Ronnie Njavera and Mr. Zidumiso Moyo. I thank Mr. Mike Holding of Afriscreen Films and Felix Gosher for flying this aerial survey. I appreciate the assistance of our aerial observers, Ms. Kelly Landen, Anna Songhurst and Allen Bekker. I am grateful to Kelly Landen for her logistical support. I am indebted to Ms. Tania Jenkins from Afriscreen Films for providing administrative assistance during this survey. I acknowledge the support of Professor Rudi van Aarde from the University of Pretoria’s Conservation Ecology Research Unit (CERU). Pieter Olivier assisted with the wildlife trend analysis segment of this report. I thank Carrie Roever for her lessons in mapping wildlife densities using ArcMap. Dr. Cyril Taolo, Dr. Larry Patterson, Dr. John Hanks and Prof. van Aarde are acknowledged for reviewing earlier draft versions of this report. The Minister of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism, Honorable Mr. Onkokame Kitso Mokaila and the Conservation Trust Fund board members are acknowledged for their support of this wildlife aerial survey over northern Botswana. iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the 2010 dry season, a fixed-wing aerial survey of elephants and wildlife was flown over the core conservation areas of northern Botswana. This aerial survey was commissioned by Elephant Without Borders and the Department of Wildlife and National Parks (DWNP). A small fixed wing plane was used to fly a stratified sample survey, with parallel transects over the survey area, 73478km2. It included Moremi Game Reserve (GR), Chobe National Park (NP), Makgadikgadi Nxai Pan NP and surrounding Wildlife Management Areas (WMAs) in the Ngamiland, Chobe and Central districts. The principal objective of this survey was to provide relatively precise and accurate estimates of wildlife in the survey area, using a method, which could be repeated. Secondary objectives included mapping the spatial distribution of elephants and other wildlife, distribution of elephant carcasses, baobab trees and large birds. The methods used were suitable for meeting the survey objectives, repeatability and technically robust. Thus this survey provides a baseline for monitoring future trends in the numbers and spatial distribution of wildlife in northern Botswana. This is the first independent aerial survey across northern Botswana to provide concession level wildlife estimates. This report provides the results of this survey, in addition to information on the spatial distribution, and abundance of wildlife and trend of elephant numbers. Maps and tables illustrating the distribution, numbers, density and trends of wildlife species in northern Botswana are provided. The survey area was divided into 42 strata, which largely conformed to the boundaries of WMAs, and protected areas. Within each stratum, transects were parallel and regularly spaced between 2 and 8 km apart. To improve the precision of population estimates, sampling intensity varied between strata, and ranged from 5 – 22 %. The overall sampling intensity was 14 %, a 10 % increase compared to earlier DWNP aerial surveys. Overall mean search effort was 1.3 minutes per km2. Aerial surveys often underestimate wildlife numbers, with the degree of underestimation higher for small or cryptic species than for large species. High-resolution digital cameras provided images to compensate for any underestimating or missed animals. The locations of wildlife herds seen during the survey were entered into a GIS to produce maps showing the distribution and herd sizes of principal large herbivores and birds in northern Botswana. The estimated number of elephant carcasses (2442) for the entire survey area represented 2 % of the total number of live and dead elephants. The carcass ratio (i.e. the ratio of elephant carcasses of all age categories) was 0.5 % for the whole survey area. Most of the elephant carcasses occurred in the Okavango Panhandle and Chobe Enclave, where arable farming is part of the land use. High numbers of elephant carcasses were in the Sibuyu Forest Reserve and Nogatsaa region of Chobe NP, these strata occur in remote areas where elephants are protected. iv The estimated population numbers for the principal large herbivores, elephant carcasses and birds in northern Botswana were: Species Estimate No. Variance CI % Lower Upper Density Seen CI CL CL (km2) Woodland Sp Elephants 128340 21833 25643351 9938 8 118402 138277 1.75 Elephant bulls 18963 3005 896304 1857 10 17105 20820 0.26 Elephant families 109376 18827 25294996 9870 10 99505 119246 1.49 Elephant carcass 597 88 6262 155 26 441 752 0.01 Elephant bones 1845 309 21313 286 16 1558 2131 0.03 Buffalo 39579 7958 29421006 10644 27 28934 50224 0.54 Eland 3311 418 1060698 2021 61 1289 5332 0.05 Gemsbok 2796 295 500385 1388 50 1407 4184 0.07 Giraffe 5537 982 208552 896 16 4640 6433 0.08 Hartebeest 634 69 97263 635 100 69 1269 0.06 Impala 51270 12021 18647001 8474 17 42795 59744 0.93 Kudu 2798 536 79041 551 20 2246 3349 0.04 Roan 710 107 33013 356 50 353 1066 0.01 Sable 3649 644 256455 994 27 2655 4643 0.07 Springbok 1565 159 951454 1914 122 350 3479 0.13 Tsessebe 3166 571 340638 1145 36 2020 4311 0.06 Warthog 3046 545 103583 631 21 2414 3677 0.06 Wildebeest 5097 782 1959347 2747 54 2349 7844 0.07 Zebra 41058 6254 70377840 16463 40 24954 57521 0.56 Wetland Sp Hippo 6054 1286 272579 1024 17 5029 7078 0.11 Lechwe 33246 6953 4293935 4666 14 29179 37312 0.61 Reedbuck 593 133 5895 150 26 442 743 0.01 Sitatunga 423 86 4555 132 31 290 555 0.01 Waterbuck 406 76 24939 310 76 96 716 0.01 Birds Bateleur eagle 714 142 6189 154 22 559 868 0.01 Fish eagle 1053 255 6165 154 15 898 1207 0.02 Ground hornbill 623 97 14452 235 38 387 858 0.01 Ostrich 1875 274 106711 641 34 1233 2516 0.03 Saddle-billed stork 1040 257 14719 238 23 801 1278 0.02 Wattled crane 785 194 28484 331 43 443 1106 0.02 Other Obs. Baobab tree 4517 659 294082 1064 24 3452 5581 0.06 Cattle 45563 9790 15637403 7760 17 37802 53323 0.62 A total of 659 baobab trees were seen during the survey, of which 154 were classified as small sized trees. Dead trees (i.e. 100 % damage, n = 29) accounted for 4.4 % of the total number seen within the survey area. A survey of part of NG 8, west of the Southern Buffalo Fence yielded an estimate of 32 cattle / km2, but low wildlife numbers. The area however has the largest zebra population (2093) in the Okavango Delta. Many v veterinary fences which were probably damaged by elephants still appear to be effective in reducing the movement of cattle and encroachment of arable farming into wildlife conservation areas which surround Moremi GR. This survey is the ninth aerial survey of wildlife populations in northern Botswana since 1993. Estimates of elephant numbers in Ngamiland and Chobe districts, Moremi GR and Chobe NP have remained similar to 2001. A trend analysis of wildlife estimates from earlier aerial surveys suggests that the estimated numbers of 11 large mammal species in the Okavango Delta have declined severely during the past ten years. The 2010 population estimates for wildlife species in the Okavango Delta are substantially lower than those from previous years. The analysis for Moremi GR recorded downward trends. The annual rate of decline, for giraffe (8 %), kudu (11 %), lechwe (7 %), tsessebe (13 %), and wildebeest (18 %), were all statistically significant. Wildebeest in Ngamiland declined from 23538 in 1999 to 1985 in 2010 at an annual rate of 18 % (P <0.003). These wildlife declines coincide with a 20 year drought which began in the 1980s. Annual rainfall and water flow records for the Okavango River were the lowest since record keeping began in the 1920s. This drought could be one explanation for the serious decline of wildlife in the Okavango Delta and other parts of northern Botswana. Wildlife populations (except for springbok) are stable in the Makgadikgadi and Nxai Pan NPs. Protected areas and WMAs in northern Botswana are managed specifically for their large mammals, and wetland habitats which support and encourage tourism. Recent rainfall records and river flow data suggest that northern Botswana could be moving into a wet cycle, which underscores the necessity of conducting future aerial surveys to monitor the distribution and abundance of wildlife populations. The 14000 elephants in the Okavango Panhandle present further management challenges as farming activities extend into the northern portions of NG 12 and 13. NG 13 has valuable mopane and miombo woodland habitats, and consideration should be given to designating NG 13 as Ngamiland’s first Forest Reserve. NG 13 has the potential to act as an important wildlife corridor facilitating the natural dispersal of elephants out of the Okavango Panhandle into Namibia and Angola, but currently this management option for reducing elephant numbers naturally is being compromised by expanding agricultural activities and fences. If the region continues to be settled by people the opportunity to realign the Caprivi Border Fence along the southern boundary of NG 13 will be lost, and may pose serious environmental and human wildlife conflict problems. The extent of bush fires during the survey across vast areas of northern Botswana is a concern and a fire management programme needs to be implemented. The level of deforestation and encroaching human activities for arable fields on the closed canopy forest islands west of Jao and Jedibe is destructive. Expanding human activities into the northwest floodplains of the Okavango Delta could be affecting the area’s lechwe population, whose numbers have declined by 58 % compared to estimates in 1996. The allocation of arable fields in the middle of elephant pathways is hindering elephants access to water which will lead to an inevitable increase in human elephant conflict. There is reason to be concerned about the status of several species, whose numbers have declined on average by 10 % each year. Research is urgently needed to establish the causes and solutions that address these wildlife declines, especially in the Okavango Delta. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...............................................................................................iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.............................................................................................iv TABLE OF CONTENTS...............................................................................................vii LIST OF TABLES ..........................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................xii DRY SEASON FIXED-WING AERIAL SURVEY OF ELEPHANTS AND WILDLIFE IN NORTHERN BOTSWANA, September – October 2010 ..........................................1 Introduction..........................................................................................................1 Study Area............................................................................................................2 Methods................................................................................................................4 Fixed-Wing Aerial Survey............................................................4 Survey Design ..............................................................................4 Flight Procedures..........................................................................6 Observations.................................................................................7 Strip Width and Calibration..........................................................8 Data Analysis........................................................................................................9 Strip Transect Sampling / Fixed-Wing Aerial Survey..................9 Linear Regression (Wildlife Trend Analysis)............................11 Search Effort...............................................................................11 Results................................................................................................................11 Sampling Effort..........................................................................11 Estimates.....................................................................................12 Observations...............................................................................14 Wildlife Distributions.................................................................18 Cattle Distribution......................................................................19 Trends in Elephant Numbers in northern Botswana...................20 Trends in Wildlife Numbers.......................................................22 Factors related to Population Trends..........................................29 Veterinary Fences.......................................................................30 vii Discussion...........................................................................................................32 Estimates.....................................................................................32 Observations...............................................................................32 Wildlife Distribution..................................................................33 Trends in Elephant Numbers......................................................33 Trends in Wildlife Numbers.......................................................33 Conclusion..........................................................................................................34 Recommendations......................................................................35 References..........................................................................................................37 Appendix 1. Data analysis and plane set-up for aerial survey..........................131 Appendix 2. Trend analyses results..................................................................133 Appendix 3. Estimates of wildlife numbers from nine aerial surveys flown over northern Botswana...............................................................136 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page Table 1. Wildlife estimates and statistics for major wildlife species, elephant carcasses, baobab trees, and cattle during the 2010 dry season aerial survey in northern Botswana........................................................................13 Table 2. Numbers seen, herds counted and average herd size of animals, baobabs and carcasses seen during the 2010 dry season aerial survey in northern Botswana........................................................................................15 Table 3. Comparison of numbers of individual animals seen and numbers of herds/groups seen by the left and right observers. .......................................17 Table 4. Calculated growth rates (r) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) for elephants in seven strata covered by all aerial surveys in northern Botswana, 1993 - 2010.................................................................................20 Table 5. Summary of trend analyses calculated for 16 wildlife species occurring in the survey area in northern Botswana......................................23 Table 6. Stratum number, name, area (km2) and survey coverage during the 2010 dry season............................................................................................39 Table 7. Sampling statistics for the 2010 dry season aerial survey of wildlife in northern Botswana........................................................................................41 Table 8. Population estimates and statistics for elephants in northern Botswana, dry season, 2010...........................................................................................45 Table 9. Dry season population estimates and statistics for elephant bulls in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................47 Table 10. Dry season population estimates and statistics for elephant family groups in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................49 Table 11. Dry season population estimates and statistics for elephant carcasses (Cat.1) in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................54 Table 12. Dry season population estimates and statistics for elephant carcasses (Cat. 2) in northern Botswana, 2010.............................................................56 Table 13. Dry season population estimates and statistics for buffalo in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................60 Table 14. Dry season population estimates and statistics for eland in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................63 ix Table 15. Dry season population estimates and statistics for giraffe in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................66 Table 16. Dry season population estimates and statistics for gemsbok in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................69 Table 17. Dry season population estimates and statistics for hippo in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................71 Table 18. Dry season population estimates and statistics for impala in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................74 Table 19. Dry season population estimates and statistics for kudu in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................77 Table 20. Dry season population estimates and statistics for lechwe in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................80 Table 21. Dry season population estimates and statistics for roan in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................83 Table 22. Dry season population estimates and statistics for reedbuck in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................86 Table 23. Dry season population estimates and statistics for sable in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................................89 Table 24. Dry season population estimates and statistics for tsessebe in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................92 Table 25. Dry season population estimates and statistics for warthog in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................95 Table 26. . Dry season population estimates and statistics for wildebeest in northern Botswana, 2010..............................................................................98 Table 27. Dry season population estimates and statistics for zebra in northern Botswana, 2010..........................................................................................101 Table 28. Dry season population estimates and statistics for hartebeest in Makgadikgadi NP, 2010.............................................................................104 Table 29. Dry season population estimates and statistics for springbok in Makgadikgadi NP, 2010.............................................................................104 Table 30. Dry season population estimates and statistics for sitatunga in Okavango Delta, 2010................................................................................105 Table 31. Dry season population estimates and statistics for waterbuck in northern Botswana, 2010............................................................................106 x