Distributed PV – the road California is already on Public Interest Environmental Law Conference Bill Powers, P.E., Powers Engineering March 5, 2011 1 John Geesman, Energy Commissioner, 2007 source: California Energy Circuit, State Sees DG Providing 25% Peak Power, May 11, 2007. “There’s an ongoing schizophrenia in state policy between what we say we want to do and what we actually allow to happen.” 2 CPUC just can’t say no Project Cost CPUC judge’s Full CPUC MM ($) decision action PG&E Oakley $800 deny approve 624 MW gas-fired SCE Eldorado $450 deny approve Ivanpah Transmission SDG&E Sunrise $2,000 deny approve Powerlink Transmission 3 Federal judges can say no sources: Los Angeles Times, Court rejects U.S. bid to establish corridors for new electric transmission lines, February 1, 2011. San Diego Union Tribune, Judge blocks Imperial Valley solar project, December 17, 2010. “9th Circuit strikes down DOE’s attempt to  establish national interest electric transmission corridors.” “This could be blow to SCE and SDG&E.”  “Federal judge in San Diego blocks 709 MW of  solar dishes in Imperial Valley, ruling government had not consulted enough with tribe.” 4 What is the state’s plan? Energy Action Plan Energy Action Plan Loading Order:  Energy efficiency & demand response  (net zero energy buildings – EE/rooftop PV) Renewable energy  Combined Heat & Power - CHP  Conventional gas-fired generation  Transmission as needed  5 How much rooftop PV does California need to meet 2020 net zero energy targets for existing buildings? ~15,000 MW CPUC, California Long-Term Strategic Energy Efficiency Plan, January 2011 update Target: 25% of existing residential reaches 70% reduction  by 2020 Assume 30% reduction with EE, 40% with PV  Residential rooftop PV requirement = 4,800 MW  Target: 25% of existing commercial reaches net zero  energy by 2020 Assume 30% reduction with EE, 70% with PV  Commercial rooftop PV requirement = 9,800 MW  Total residential and commercial rooftop PV = 14,600 MW  6 What is utility renewable energy plan? CPUC, 33% RPS Implementation Analysis Preliminary Results, June 2009, p. 87. J. Firooz, Transmission in Short Supply or Do IOUs Want More Profits?, Natural Gas & Electricity Journal, July 2010. graphic: Black & Veatch and E3, Summary of PV Potential Assessment in RETI and the 33% Implementation Analysis, Re-DEC Working Group Meeting, December 9, 2009, p. 10. 10,000 MW of large-  scale, remote solar. 0 MW of distributed PV. Customer-owned rooftop  PV is not RPS-eligible. The more new, high  profit (12% ROI) transmission the better. $15 billion in new  transmission additions in California, justified on renewable energy, if utility plans realized. 7 20,000 MW of existing transmission supplying SoCal today, average load is 14,000 MW. 10,000+ MW Path 46 has lightest load in West. Sources: 2005 CEC Strategic Transmission Investment Study; June 2010 WECC Path Utilization Study Part of TEPPC 2009 Annual Report. 8 Local PV and remote solar – the tortoise and the hare PV Project Underway Capacity Completion (MW) date California Solar Initiative 3,000 2016 Utility distributed PV 1,100 2014 SB 32 feed-in tariff 750 2014 CPUC renewable auction 1,000 2014 mechanism SMUD feed-in tariff 100 2012 Total committed DG PV ~6,000 9 Remote solar projects still standing in ARRA cash grant hunt – extended thru 2011 Remote solar project Capacity (MW) Ivanpah 370 Blythe + Palen 1,500 Genesis 250 Desert Sunlight 550 Chevron Lucerne Valley 45 Total large remote solar 2,715 10