220311 Columbia Cvr_Layout 1 2/28/12 11:21 AM Page 1 D I P L O M A T I C H I S T O R Y DIPLOMATIC HISTORY: : T h e T The Turkey-Armenia Protocols u r k e y - A r m e n i a P r o t o c o l s Institute for the Study of Human Rights Future of Diplomacy Project Columbia University Belfer Center for Science and 91 Claremont Avenue, 7th Floor International Affairs New York, NY 10027 Harvard Kennedy School 79 JFK Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 David L. Phillips http://hrcolumbia.org http://www.belfercenter.org March 2012 P h illip s 220311 Columbia Cvr_Layout 1 2/28/12 11:21 AM Page 2 © David L. Phillips David L. Phillips, Director of the Program on Peace-building and Rights Institute for the Study of Human Rights Columbia University 91 Claremont Avenue, 7th Floor New York, NY 10027 http://hrcolumbia.org DIPLOMATIC HISTORY: The 2009 Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey and The 2009 Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Armenia By David L. Phillips Institute for the Study of Human Rights in collaboration with the Future of Diplomacy Project, Harvard Kennedy School The Institute for the Study of Human Rights (ISHR) was the first academic center in the world to be founded on an interdisciplinary commitment to the study of human rights. ISHR also bridges the study and practice of human rights on both a national and international level. It promotes dialogue between scholars and practitioners through human rights research, educa- tion, lectures, conferences, and capacity-building activities. ISHR is currently the largest human rights program for graduate studies in the United States. The Future of Diplomacy Project at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs is dedicated to promoting the study and understanding of diplomacy, negotiation, and statecraft in international politics. The Project aims to build the Harvard Kennedy School’s ability to teach in this area, sup- port research in modern diplomatic practice, and build public understanding of diplomacy’s indispensable role in an increasingly complex and globalized world. The Project redefines diplomacy in a modern context through the lens of leading practitioners who are engaged in innovative means of conflict pre- vention and resolution at the negotiation table and beyond. The author has been extensively involved in Turkish-Armenian issues since 1999. This monograph draws on the author’s discussions with Turkish and Armenian officials directly involved in negotiations, as well as Swiss and U.S. mediators. Interviews were also conducted with Turkish and Armenian scholars, analysts, think tank representatives, and media in Turkey and Armenia. The monograph is further informed by workshops organized by Columbia University and the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School. Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1 History . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Stakeholders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .5 Contact . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15 Joint History Commission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .21 Swiss Mediation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .27 Freedom of Expression . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33 Hrant Dink . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .35 International Response . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .39 Football Diplomacy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 U.S. Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .45 Initials . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47 Azerbaijan’s Reaction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .49 Ergenekon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53 Signing Ceremony . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55 The Protocols . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59 A Partnership at Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63 The Constitutional Court . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .67 Ratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71 War—A Bad Option . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .73 Nuclear Summit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .75 Suspension . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .77 Silent Diplomacy? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81 Civil Society at Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .83 Recent Developments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .87 Centennial . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .95 Epilogue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .99 The Way Forward . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .103 Appendix A: Acronyms . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .109 Appendix B: Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .110 vi Diplomatic History: The Turkey-Armenia Protocols Appendix C: Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Armenia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .112 Appendix D: Timetable and Elements for the Implementation of the Protocol on Development of Relations between the Republic of Turkey and the Republic of Armenia . . . . . .114 About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .115 Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .117 Introduction The Protocol on the Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and the Protocol on the Development of Bilateral Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Turkey (hereafter called “the Protocols”) were signed on October 10, 2009. The Protocols represented an unprecedented advancement in relations between Turkey and Armenia. However, failure to ratify them was a significant bilateral, regional, and international setback. This monograph is a diplomatic history of events leading up to the signing of the Protocols. It assesses the work of Turkish and Armenian diplo- mats negotiating the Protocols and the role of Swiss mediation, as well as the positions of the United States, France, Russia, and Iran. The monograph eval- uates ensuing problems, including conditions imposed on ratification, as well as the effect of domestic politics in Turkey and Armenia on normalization. Turkish-Armenian relations are also considered in regional context. The Middle East is in the midst of transformation, with Turkey playing a central role. Turkey is involved in the troubled transitions of Egypt and Libya, and at odds with Syria and Iran. Other regional issues, such as the Nagorno- Karabakh (NK) conflict, Cyprus, and relations with Armenia are stalemated. At present, Armenia is not a foreign policy priority for Ankara. The Protocols may be dormant, yet they still provide a roadmap to the way forward. Studying the history of Turkish-Armenian rapprochement serves as the basis for specific recommendations provided in this monograph aimed at (i) intensifying civil society activities, (ii) expanding commercial cooperation, and (iii) stimulating intergovernmental contact. These pages are more than a record of historical events. Lessons can also be applied to con- flict resolution efforts in other countries facing similar challenges. 1