Demographic Transition Theory John C. Caldwell Demographic Transition Theory Demographic Transition Theory by JohnC.Caldwell TheAustralianNationalUniversity, Canberra,Australia ContributingCo-Authors BruceK.Caldwell PatCaldwell PeterF.McDonald ThomasSchindlmayr AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. ISBN-10 1-4020-4373-2(HB) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4373-4(HB) ISBN-10 1-4020-4498-4(e-book) ISBN-13 978-1-4020-4498-4(e-book) PublishedbySpringer, P.O.Box17,3300AADordrecht,TheNetherlands. www.springer.com Printedonacid-freepaper AllRightsReserved (cid:2)C 2006Springer Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinany formorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recordingor otherwise,withoutwrittenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexceptionofany materialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingenteredandexecutedonacomputer system,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. PrintedintheNetherlands. CONTENTS Preface.................................................................................... vii Introduction 1. Theanalyticalapproach.......................................................... 3 PartI: IssuesofEarlyTransition 2. Pretransitionalpopulationcontrolandequilibrium.......................... 23 3. WasthereaNeolithicmortalitycrisis?........................................ 51 4. Populationintensificationtheory............................................... 71 5. Onnetintergenerationalwealthflows:Anupdate........................... 89 6. Fertilitycontrolintheclassicalworld:Wasthereanancient fertilitytransition?................................................................. 111 7. Familysizecontrolbyinfanticideinthegreatagrarian societiesofAsia.................................................................... 131 PartII: TheModernTransition 8. Transmutingtheindustrialrevolutionintomortalitydecline.............. 157 9. ThedelayedWesternfertilitydecline:Anexamination ofEnglish-speakingcountries................................................... 181 10. Regionalpathstofertilitytransition............................................ 217 11. Theglobalizationoffertilitybehavior......................................... 249 v vi CONTENTS 12. Socialupheavalandfertilitydecline........................................... 273 13. Demographictheory:Alongview............................................. 301 14. Policyresponsestolowfertilityanditsconsequences: Aglobalsurvey.................................................................... 321 15. Explanationsofthefertilitycrisisinmodernsocieties: Asearchforcommonalities...................................................... 349 16. Backtothefuture:Thegreatmortalitycrises................................ 387 Index...................................................................................... 397 PREFACE Support for this book has been received from the Australian Research Council’sDiscoveryProgramme.Formostoftheworkaninstitutionalhomewas providedbytheDemographyandSociologyProgram(directedbyProfessorPeter McDonald), Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National Uni- versity, Canberra and its early stage by the National Centre for Epidemiology andPopulationHealth(directedsuccessivelybyProfessorBobDouglasandTony McMichael),TheAustralianNationalUniversity. Myco-authorsforcertainchaptershavegenerouslypermittedrepublica- tion: Bruce Caldwell, Pat Caldwell, Peter McDonald and Thomas Schindlmayr. All the earlier fieldwork which moulded the analysis was carried out with my wife, Pat Caldwell, and that explains the frequent use of ‘we’ in the text. Some was also carried out with our son, Bruce Caldwell, and daughter-in-law, Indrani Pieris.WendyCosfordhasprovidededitorialassistanceforallpapers.Research assistance is acknowledged over the years successively from Jeff Marck, Bruce Missingham,ThomasSchindlmayr,RebeccaKippen,EwaOrzechowska-Fischer andGuangyuZhang.TypinghasbeensuccessivelybyElaineHollingsandVanessa McGrath,thelatterhavingpreparedthemanuscriptofthisbook.Thanksalsoto everyoneatSpringer,especiallyEvelienBakker,intheSocialScienceUnitforher gracioushelp. Thanksandacknowledgementareduetothefollowingjournalsbothfor originalpublicationandforgraciouslyallowingrepublication: “JournalofPopulationResearch”(Chapters3,6,10and14), “PopulationandDevelopmentReview”(Chapters5,9,11and13), “PopulationStudies”(www.populationstudies.net/)(Chapters2and15), “JournalofFamilyHistory”(Chapter12)and “TheJournalofComparativeFamilyStudies”(Chapter7). vii INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1 THE ANALYTICAL APPROACH Thepaperscollectedinthisvolumearefocusedonhumanreproduction and survival over the full span of mankind’s existence. The decline in the last twocenturiesoffertilityandmortalityfrommoderatelyhigh,andoftenveryhigh, to lower levels is called the “demographic transition.” This book examines the determinants of fertility and mortality levels and their balance, from the time whentheworld’speopleweresolelyhuntersandgathererstowhenanincreasing numberliveincitiesundertakingworkfarremovedfromproducingfood.Although thefocusisonreproduction,thesearchforexplanationscrisscrossestheworkof otherswhosecentralconcernisproduction. Thebackgroundfortheideasexpressedhereisalmosthalfacenturyof experience and research in sub-Saharan Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Australia. Early experience with fertility attitudes and behaviour in rural West Africa convinced me that, in the circumstances of the population there, uncon- trolledreproductionwasjustaslogicalaswashighlycontrolledreproductionin industrial society. The reason clearly lay in the economic system, which for the greatmajorityofWestAfricanswasfamilyfarming.Nevertheless,itwasworkin South Asia (rural South India and Bangladesh) from the late 1970s that demon- strated the inner workings of family farming. The progressive expansion of my concept of modes of production can be found in Caldwell (1976), “Towards a restatementofhighfertility...,”(1977)“Theeconomicrationalityofhighfertil- ity...,” and (1982), Theory of Fertility Decline; Caldwell, Reddy and Caldwell (1982)“ThecausesofdemographicchangeinruralSouthIndia”and(1988),The CausesofDemographicChange:ExperimentalResearchinSouthIndia;Caldwell andCaldwell(1992),“Familysystems:theirviabilityandvulnerability.Astudyof intergenerationalinteractionsandtheirdemographicimplications;”andCaldwell (2004),“Demographictheory:Alongview.” Much of what I learnt can be summarized from the work on the South Indianfarmingfamilyatthebeginningofthe1980s,supplementedbyastudyof individuallabourinputsinruralBangladesh(Caldwelletal.1984).Landtenure wasfreeholdheldbytheoldermalefarmer.Therewasnotreallyafreemarketin land,because,althoughitcouldbesoldinacrisis,mostfamilyfarmersregarded land tenure as being descended from ancestors and as needing broad agreement from relatives before the land could be sold. Indeed, when the land was divided betweenmarriedsons,itwasnotonlyrelativesbutalsomembersofthebroader 3 4 CHAPTER1 community who judged where the boundary lines should be placed. Food was storedaftertheharvestandmostofwhatthefamilyateduringthefollowingyear wasfromthisstore. Themainpurposeofthefamilywastoworkhardonthefarm,tomaximize theamountoffoodthatcouldbeproduced,and,ifpossible,toacquiremoreland. Themostefficientwayofdoingthiswasfoundtobedirectionbytheheadofthe family(usuallymale)andadetaileddivisionofworkasappropriatetotheageand sexoftheperson.Ineachspheretheworkwasimmediatelydirectedbyanolder personofthesamesex:thefarmerinthefield,andhiswifeinthehouseandalso inthefieldwhenfemalehouseholdmemberswereweeding.Theworkinggroup consisted of the patriarch, his wife, his unmarried and married sons (the latter until such time as the land should be divided), daughters-in-law and unmarried daughters. Work efficiency was maintained by sons respecting their father as an ancestor and as the owner of the land and the decision-maker on inheritance. Daughterswerekeptinlinebytheknowledgethatonlythefamilycouldarrange theirmarriageandraisesufficientdowrytogetgoodhusbands.Theweakestpoint in the system was the position of the daughters-in-law who provided the major inputintohouseholdwork.Theywerestrangers,andweretreatedassuch,witha deep suspicion that they did not fully identify with the family and its traditions. Thisdistancebetweenthefarmer’swifeanddaughters-in-lawservedtheformer wellinmaintainingdisciplineanddemandingbackbreakingwork.Thedaughter- in-law,knowingthatshewouldeventuallybeamother-in-law,soughttostrengthen her position by emphasizing to her husband the importance of the marital bond andhisdutiestohisownchildren.Thefamilycounteredthisdangerbyensuring that the son acquired a much younger wife whom he would treat almost as a child, and by ensuring that he and his wife demonstrated little overt affection and had limited possibilities for dalliance or sexual relations, that the son spent most of his time with his brothers and showed great parental respect, and that muchofthedecision-makingaboutchildrenwasdonebythegrandparents.Sons’ wivesunderstoodthattheywereprimarilydaughters-in-law,andonlysecondarily wives. Littleofthiscontrolwasexercisedbybruteforce.Ratheritwasachieved bysettingeverythingintoamoralframework.Theyounghadaduty,enshrinedby religionandcommunityprecept,tohonour,respectandobeytheold.Sexualitywas suspect and so was affection, except between the generations. Daughters should bemarriedintofamilieswithatleastasmuchproperty,andthisshouldbeensured by holding premarital virginity to be blessed and to execrate any change in that condition.Thoseincontrolsawtheadvantagesofalltheserequirementsbutthey alsobelievedthatreligionandcultureheldthattheyweretobevenerated. Theseconditionswerechangingevenasweundertookresearch,butmost oftheoldsystemwaslargelyintact,andtheolderpeoplehadbeenimmersedin it and could testify to the way it worked. Nevertheless, money and the market