Full citation: J.E. Peterson. “Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States (1973-2003).” Online edition from www.JEPeterson.net (posted June 2004) Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States, 1973-2003 J.E. Peterson Cut-off date: 31 December 2003 ii Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States TABLE OF CONTENTS EXPLANATORY NOTES ...................................................... v ABBREVIATIONS .......................................................... vii OVERALL VIEWS AND GENERAL DISCUSSION .................................1 OIL SECURITY. ............................................................. 18 THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR (1980-1988) .............................................33 Political Aspects of the War and External Involvement ...........................33 Military Aspects of the War ................................................53 The Tanker War and Other Direct US Involvement ..............................58 THE IRAQI INVASION OF KUWAIT AND THE KUWAIT WAR (1990-1991) ..........66 Background to the Invasion and Developments During the Iraqi Occupation ..........66 Political Aspects of the Kuwait War (1991) and General Accounts .................. 83 Military Aspects of the War ................................................90 Aftermath of the War, Summaries, and the Impact on the Gulf .....................99 The Impact of the War Outside the Gulf ...................................... 112 Environmental Damage, and Economic and Humanitarian Aspects ................ 123 POLICY TOWARD IRAQ AND THE IRAQ WAR (1991-2003) ......................128 The International Sanctions Régime Against Iraq ..............................128 The Debate Over Policy Toward Iraq ........................................135 The Iraq War (2003) and Aftermath ......................................... 149 INTERNATIONAL ASPECTS OF GULF SECURITY ..............................160 General, European, Chinese, and Other Involvement ............................160 Superpower and Great Power Rivalry in the Gulf .............................. 167 The United States and the Gulf .............................................172 Strategic Interests and Goals ............................................. 172 The Attacks of 11 September 2001, al-Qa‘idah, and the Gulf .................... 195 Bilateral Relations with Gulf States ........................................200 Dual Containment Policy ..............................................200 Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States iii Iran ...............................................................205 Iraq ...............................................................214 Saudi Arabia ........................................................217 GCC, Other Gulf States and the Yemens ..................................226 The Development of US Rapid Deployment Forces for the Gulf ................. 231 US Military Options and Strategies ........................................240 The Soviet Union/Russia and the Gulf .......................................252 Strategic Interests and Goals ............................................. 252 Bilateral Relations with Gulf States ........................................262 Iran ...............................................................262 Iraq ...............................................................263 The GCC States...................................................... 264 The Yemens ........................................................265 REGIONAL ASPECTS OF GULF SECURITY .................................... 267 Regional Bilateral Relations ...............................................267 Regional Disputes and Conflicts ............................................268 General ..............................................................268 The Arab-Israeli Conflict and the Gulf ..................................... 270 The Kuwait-Iraq Crisis (1961) ............................................ 275 The Dhufar Rebellion .................................................. 276 Yemen Civil War (1994) ................................................278 Abu Musa and the Tunb Islands Dispute between Iran and the United Arab Emirates ...................................................................279 Boundaries and Other Disputes ........................................... 281 Regional Responses to Security Issues .......................................283 General ..............................................................283 Foreign Policies of the GCC States and the Yemens ...........................286 The Impact of British Withdrawal ......................................... 291 The Gulf Cooperation Council ............................................292 INTERNAL ASPECTS OF GULF SECURITY ....................................301 General, Political, and Other Considerations ..................................301 Resurgent Islam and Islamist Movements ....................................307 Gulf Military Capabilities and Arms Transfers ................................312 Iran – The Revolution and the Islamic Republic and Their Impact on Gulf Security.... 325 Iraq – Domestic Politics and the Impact on Gulf Security ........................ 339 Gulf States .............................................................346 Saudi Arabia ...........................................................355 Kuwait ................................................................379 Bahrain ...............................................................385 Qatar .................................................................389 United Arab Emirates ....................................................390 iv Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States Oman .................................................................392 The Yemens ...........................................................395 BIBLIOGRAPHIES ..........................................................404 INDEX OF PERSONAL NAMES AND INSTITUTIONS ............................406 Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States v EXPLANATORY NOTES This is the second edition of an earlier bibliography on the same subject, published in 1985. This edition includes all of the original entries plus all possible entries from 1985 through the end of 2003. The principal cut-off date is 31 December 2003. No bibliography can ever be as comprehensive as it is intended to be, and that certainly holds true for this one. Thus some caveats are in order. The entries herein are principally in English, with efforts to include other Western languages as appropriate. No attempt has been made to include publications in non-European languages. To do so would have greatly complicated and expanded the scope of the bibliography and its printed size. For similar reasons of maintaining a manageable size, no attempt has been made to include material from general magazines, weekly and daily news organs, or specialized newsletters. The multiplicity of wars in the Gulf, or more specifically in the northern Gulf, has created confusion in terminology, particularly but not only in the West. “The Gulf War” was initially applied to the Iran-Iraq War and then, in an astonishing example of memory loss, transferred to the conflict in Kuwait in 1991. With hostilities in Iraq in 2003, the confusion has only grown with commentators unable to decide whether to call the latest conflagration “Gulf War II” or “Gulf War III.” This terminology does not, of course, address the fact that all three wars have taken place solely in the northern Gulf and that terming them all “Gulf Wars” is rather like calling the American intervention in Grenada a “Caribbean War.” To avoid these problems, this bibliography adheres to the following terminology. The conflict between Iraq and Iran from 1980 to 1988 is termed “the Iran-Iraq War.” The war between Iraq and the coalition of forces involved in the liberation of Kuwait in 1991 is termed “the Kuwait War.” The American attack on Iraq in 2003, with British assistance, is termed “the Iraq War.” The phrase “Gulf states” normally refers to the six monarchies that form the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman. The Kuwait War has created a voluminous literature, not all of which is central to this bibliography. There has been no intention to include annotations for most works dealing solely with military aspects of the wars, those focusing on the impact of the war on domestic politics and society outside the Gulf, and works dealing with environmental damage. Shorter works, accounts of military action at the Service or unit level, and more ephemeral citations typically have been excluded. Works on internal developments in Iraq, including the Shi‘ah uprising in the south and Kurdish affairs in the north, have also been excluded except where they can be regarded as having an impact on Iraqi policy or actions towards its Gulf neighbors. Fuller coverage of these topics is contained in Andrew Orgill’s The 1990-91 Gulf War: Crisis, Conflict, Aftermath – An Annotated Bibliography. Similarly, a number of similar works dealing with the Iran-Iraq War have not been provided with annotations. A similar problem occurs with the equally burgeoning literature on al-Qa‘idah and terrorism that appeared after the attacks of 11 September 2001. On the same grounds, this bibliography does not claim to be comprehensive on this frequently peripheral subject but includes material only when it is directly relevant to the volume’s headings. The Iraq War in March-April 2003 obviously vi Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States occurred too recently to include most serious publications on the war itself. However, it has been possible to include a number entries from the policy debate before the war. Author’s identifications are given as they appear in the published work. No attempt has been made to update affiliations. In this sense, the bibliography may be useful also in providing limited biographical information through authors’s careers. Page numbers have been provided for all quotations, except for quotations used in entries from the first edition. Citations from the first edition have been identified with a (cid:131) symbol following the annotation. Stylistic differences have also crept in between the first edition and the new entries for this edition. With a separation of nearly two decades, this is only to be expected. Institutions and abbreviations such as the GCC and CENTCOM have become familiar while new institutions and abbreviations such as WMD and UNIKOM have appeared in the interim. The details and debate over the US establishment of a rapid deployment force, current at the time that the first edition appeared, is of historical interest now and a section detailing with this topic has been retained intact from the first edition. It may be seen that the definition of “regional security” has been stretched rather far when it comes to publications on individual countries of the Arabian Peninsula. A number of books and articles have been selected for inclusion because they may provide useful perspective on the state of affairs that underpin these countries’ security requirements and environment, even if they are not directly concerned with matters of defense and security. Despite diligent efforts, it was not always possible to examine each bibliographic citation, which accounts for the absence of an annotation for a minority of entries. In addition, page numbers are absent in a few entries because they were accessed online or because references were incomplete and the items were not accessible for examination. Every attempt has been made to make the bibliography comprehensive up to the cut-off date of 31 December 2003. J.E. Peterson March 2004 Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States vii ABBREVIATIONS BBC British Broadcasting Corporation CBW Chemical and biological warfare CENTCOM Central Command (United States) CPA Coalition Provisional Authority (US and British administration of Iraq) GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GWOT Global War on Terror IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency IEA International Energy Agency NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization OAPEC Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries RDF Rapid Deployment Force RUSI Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies (UK) SAF Sultan’s Armed Forces (Oman) SANG Saudi Arabia National Guard SAS Special Air Service (UK) UAE United Arab Emirates UNIKOM United Nations Iraq Kuwait Observer Mission UNMOVIC UN Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (Iraq) UNSCOM United Nations Commission on Iraq UNSCR United Nations Security Council resolution USGPO United States General Printing Office USMTM United States Military Training Mission (Saudi Arabia) WMD Weapons of mass destruction Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States, 1973-2003 OVERALL VIEWS AND GENERAL DISCUSSION 1. Ahrari, M.E., and Brigid Starkey. “Polarity and stability in the post-Cold War Persian Gulf.” Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Winter-Spring 1997), pp. 133-151. !! Professors at the Armed Forces Staff College and the University of Maryland respectively argue that “The decisive nature of the military response of the U.S.-led coalition during the Desert Storm has faltered in the five ensuing years...” and the GCC states “are still looking for a viable security formula.” (p. 133) 2. Ahrari, M.E., and James H. Noyes. The Persian Gulf After the Cold War. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1993. !! Co-editor James H. Noyes (Hoover Institution) begins this volume with a look at the impact of the newly independent Central Asian states of the former Soviet Union on the Gulf and US policy. Leon T. Hadar (American University) follows with an examination of a possible European challenge to US hegemony in the Gulf. A section on the role of regional states in a post-Cold-War Gulf order includes contributions on Iran by M.E. Ahrari (US Air War College), Iraq by Ahmad Hashim (consultant), and Saudi Arabia by Joseph Twinam (The Citadel). David Winterford and Robert E. Looney (both of the Naval Postgraduate School) examine the role of Gulf oil in global strategic calculations, Ahrari looks at developments in the Gulf arms race, and Kenneth Katzman (Congressional Research Service) assesses the prospects of the Gulf Cooperation Council. 3. Ahrari, M.E., and Omar Khalidi. “The Emerging Shape of Strategic Competition in the Persian Gulf.” Strategic Review, Vol. 18, No. 4 (Fall 1990), pp. 23-29. !! A review of the recent security environment in the Gulf by a professor at US Air War College and a staff member with the Agha Khan Program for Islamic Affairs at Harvard University and MIT respectively. The authors feel that “The dynamic relations among the Gulf states are likely to play an 2 Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States important role in determining the scope and nature of strategic competition in that area in the coming decades. Both superpowers are likely to play reactive roles.” (p. 28) 4. Alaolmolki, Nozar. Struggle for Dominance in the Persian Gulf: Past, Present and Future Prospects. New York: Peter Lang, 1991. – and – 5. ________. The Persian Gulf Region in the Twenty First Century: Stability and Change. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 1996. !! In the first book, an associate professor of political science at Hiram College (Ohio) reviews security-related developments in the Gulf from the late 1970s to the early 1990s. The work concentrates heavily on Iran, with chapters focusing on Iran’s military capabilities, its political system, the fall of the Pahlavi monarchy and developments in the Islamic Republic. In the second work, Alaolmolki takes a broader perspective by surveying the history, social composition, economy, and foreign policies of all eight Gulf littoral states. 6. Alshayeji, Abdullah K. “Stability in the [Persian] Gulf Region: Clash of Visions.” Iranian Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 2 (Summer 1996), pp. 320-352. !! A review of flashpoints in the Gulf by an assistant professor of political science at Kuwait University. He concludes that political survival and economic prosperity are inextricably linked in the Gulf and therefore “It is high tme for all the [Persian] Gulf political elite, the decision makers in Washington and the West, and the intelligentsia and Islamists to work for gradual political reforms, help assuage fear, and defuse tension in domestic, regional, and interrelations politics.” (p. 349) 7. Barnett, Michael. “Regional Security after the Gulf War.” Political Science Quarterly, Vol. 111, No. 4 (Winter 1996-1997), pp. 597-618. !! An associate professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison looks at developments in the regional security of the Middle East (not just the Gulf). He regards regional security as depending on viable cooperative security arrangements based on strategic stability and mutual assurance and on a domestic order that supports (or acquiesces in) such principles and arrangements. His judgment is that “Thus far, the region has made substantial progress toward regional order, some progress toward regional stability, and little headway toward domestic stability and order” and “so long as there is little domestic peace, there is unlikely to be regional peace.” (pp. 617-618) 8. Basheer, Tahseen M. “Structural Challenges to Security in the Gulf.” Mediterranean Quarterly, Vol. 2, No. 4 (Fall 1991), pp. 26-37. !! A former Egyptian representative to the Arab League stresses that stability is the key to a security system for the Gulf. This can be achieved only with solutions to certain problems: a clear definition of Arab state sovereignty, resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict, a transformed relationship between Iran and the Arab states, a deep relationship between the Arab states and African states, and management of the domestic struggle for legal democratization and human rights. Defense and Regional Security in the Arabian Peninsula and Gulf States 3 9. Bulloch, John. The Gulf. London: Century, 1984. Published in US as: The Persian Gulf Unveiled. New York: Congdon & Weed, 1984. !! A general history of the Gulf in the mid- 20th century, intended for an audience not familiar with the area and written by a journalist with the Daily Telegraph (London). The tone is anecdotal, rather than systematic or comprehensive, and the book ends with a warning that the Gulf may face interference by outside powers, especially the Soviet Union, in the coming century. 10. Dalton, Richard. Winning the Peace in the Gulf: A Long-Term View. London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1993. !! A British diplomat and visiting fellow at the RIIA examines potential sources of danger in the Gulf and explores alternative methods for keeping peace in the region. He concludes that “Proposals for Gulf security have included a repeat of Desert Shield or a copy of European security structures. But both would be flawed. ... The ambitious proposals for a Middle East Security Conference presuppose a solution of all the region’s outstanding political issues. What is required instead is a more pragmatic approach using the sort of cooperation that will build confidence such that the more dangerous issues can be tackled and solved in the future. Its initial basis can be the coalition, which explicitly and implicitly included all the states of the region in an consensus against the attempt to extinguish the existence of Kuwait.” (p. 34) 11. Davies, Charles E., ed. Global Interests in the Arab Gulf. Exeter: University of Exeter Press, 1992. !! A collected volume from papers given at an annual University of Exeter conference on the Gulf. The initial papers deal with Gulf history while the second part discusses oil prospects in a paper by Peter A. Davies (British Petroleum) and Paul J. Stevens (University of Surrey) and Arab labor in the GCC in a paper by J.S. Birks and C.A. Sinclair (Birks and Sinclair Ltd.). K. Subrahmanyam (Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi) discusses relations between the Gulf and the Indian subcontinent while Anoushiravan Ehteshami (University of Exeter) broadens the focus to Gulf relations with newly industrializing countries. Willem Van Eekelen (Secretary-General of the Western European Union) covers Western European security interests in the Gulf while Susumi Ishida (International University of Japan) details Japan’s oil strategy. The Soviet Union’s role in the Gulf and wider region is handled by Vitaly Naumkin (Institute of Oriental Studies, Moscow) and Alexei Vassiliev (Institute for African Studies, Moscow) while Anthony H. Cordesman (Georgetown University and US Senate adviser) adds a long paper on US power-projection capabilities in the region and Richard W. Murphy (US Council on Foreign Relations) discusses American political policy. Rolf Müller-Syring (Leipzig University) outlines the process of militarization and John Townsend (Business International) observes the far- reaching economic and political changes in the Gulf’s last few decades, concluding that “if any ruling family in the Gulf is seen by the people to be putting dynastic survival ahead of overall national interests and in doing so emphasises its lack of accountability to the people, then that family will assuredly be ousted.” (p. 386) 12. Dickman, Francois M. “A Post-Gulf War Policy for the Middle East.” Asian Affairs (Washington), Vol. 18, No. 1 (June 1991), pp. 5-12.