Critical Transitions in Nature and Society t -A ''^!d SP m m. % m X V "’ft<'r n .^1 ,m?j m U1 ■IV t’ i‘ •> r iT* -I ■i> •: i^- l< iV^ ■*:*.. V’*, ‘•V s.! ^ :■ > 'V.t V V • mm 2r-«5 'M Marten Scheffer ', PRINCETON STUDIES IN COMPLEXITY Critical Transitions in Natnre and Society PRINCETON STUDIES IN COMPLEXITY Series Editors Simon A. Levin (Princeton University) and Steven H. Strogatz (Cornell University) TITLES IN THE SERIES Barriers and Bounds to Rationality: Essays on Eco nomic Complexity and Dynamics in Interactive Systems, edited by Peter Albin and Duncan K. Foley Emergent Actors in World Politics: How States and Nations Develop and Dissolve, by Lars-Erik Cederman Self-Organization in Biological Systems, by Scott Ca- mazine, Jean-Louis Deneubourg, Nigel R. Franks, James Sneyd, Guy Theraulaz, and Eric Bonabeau Historical Dynamics Why States Rise and Fall, by Peter Turchin Self-Organization in Biological Systems, Camazine, Scott, Jean-Louis Deneubourg, Nigel R. Franks, James Sneyd, Guy Theraulaz, and Eric Bonabeau Small Worlds: The Dynamics of Networks between Order and Randomness, by Duncan J. Watts Robustness and Evolvability in Living Systems, by Andreas Wagner The Structure and Dynamics ofNetworks, edited by Mark Newman,A lbert-Laszlo Barabasi, and Duncan Watts Generative Social Science Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling, by Joshua M.E pstein Perfect Order: Recognizing Complexity in Bali, by J. Stephen Lansing Complex Adaptive Systems: An Introduction to Com putational Models ofS ocial Life, by John H. Miller and Scott E. Page Critical Transitions in Nature and Society, hy Marten Scheffer MARTEN SCHEFFER Critical Transitions in Nature and Society Princeton University Press Princeton and Oxford Copyright © 2009 by Princeton University Press Requests for permission to reproduce material from this work should be sent to Permissions, Princeton University Press Published by Princeton University Press, 41 William Street, Princeton, New Jersey 08540 In the United Kingdom: Princeton University Press, 6 Oxford Street, Woodstock, Oxfordshire 0X20 ITW All Rights Reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Scheffer, Marten. Critical transitions in nature and society / Marten Scheffer, p. cm. —(Princeton studies in complexity) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-691-12203-8 (hardcover : alk. paper)- ISBN 978-0-691-12204-5 (pbk.: alk. paper) 1. Ecological disturbances. 2. Social evolution. 3. Threshold logic. 4. Global environmental change. 5. Nature—Effect of human beings on. 6. Biogeography. I. Title. QH545.A1S34 2009 577.18—dc22 2009003871 British Library Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available This book has been composed in Minion Printed on acid-free paper.00 press.princeton.edu Printed in the United States of America 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 To Camila, Pablo, and Milena t I, f" ••V. I \ChVi £r• j? [ '.V ;• ■'. I.■v., f -r ; ’‘t; I • i ’^■'- ;-t f.i-'■l.' ■(v'1, .'• i-* •i. .r' ^:. - .. ,.“iV"- ■< ‘u L :■ :• ■/ ;I. jvv:^'t:■U'''.y-*'J' ■'.Tt, Il V,. i.r•.V - 'llw A'- ■f f■Y r r! ■j .■.■*•<> i f .-.V ■r y ,V‘ r 'v r,' .•V- •T. ? V; Y--.C • \ •\- •' I' •■; ■ •V-< ,r-L'-‘- u' ,r;> 1;•>:•• r I ■'l- ; ■’ T.'j 1■•1!' ':( I. •’r*A, L •; } r ?-.■ 1 ■J' f I. ill ,.H -Vr- j r’rf V. . :ivt V I 1^- V >■ f ' ■‘■:i - -I il, |i:' ‘ I Contents Acknowledgments Xlll CHAPTER 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Coral Reef Collapse 2 1.2 The Birth of the Sahara Desert 3 1.3 Shifts in Societies 5 1.4 Content of this Book 6 Part I THEORY OF CRITICAL TRANSITIONS CHAPTER 2. Alternative Stable States 11 2.1 The Basics 13 2.2 Some Mechanisms 25 2.3 Synthesis 36 CHAPTER 3. Cycles and Chaos 37 3.1 The Limit Cycle 37 3.2 Complex Dynamics 42 3.3 Basin Boundary Collision 50 3.4 Synthesis 54 viii n Contents CHAPTER 4. Emergent Patterns In Cemplex Systems 55 4.1 Spatial Patterns 56 4.2 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks 65 4.3 The Adaptive Cycle Theory 75 4.4 Synthesis 79 CHAPTER 5. Implications of FInctuations, Heterogeneity, and Diversity 81 5.1 Permanent Change 82 5.2 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity 85 5.3 Diversity of Players 90 5.4 Synthesis 95 CHAPTER 6. Conclusion: From Theoretical Concepts to Reality 96 6.1 Alternative Stable States 96 6.2 Basins of Attraction 98 6.3 Resilience 101 6.4 Adaptive Capacity 103 6.5 Critical Transitions 104 6.5 Synthesis 104 Part II CASE STUDIES CHAPTER 7. lakes 109 7.1 Transparency of Shallow Lakes 110 7.2 Dynamics 125 7.3 Other Alternative Stable States 131 7.4 Synthesis 138 CHAPTER 8. Climate 139 8.1 Deep Time Climate Shifts 141 8.2 Glaciation Cycles 149 8.3 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales 157 8.4 Synthesis 164 Contents IX CHAPTER 9. Evolution 166 9.1 Introduction 166 9.2 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion 168 9.3 The End-Permian Extinction 172 9.4 The Angiosperm Radiation 174 9.5 From Dinosaurs to Mammals 176 9.6 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates, Deer, and Horses 177 9.7 In Search of the Big Picture 178 9.8 Synthesis 184 CHAPTER 10.Oceans 186 10.1 Open Ocean Regime Shifts 187 10.2 Coastal Ecosystems 201 10.3 Synthesis 213 CHAPTER 11. Terrestrial Ecosystems 216 11.1 Vegetation-Climate Shifts in Dry Regions 216 11.2 Small-Scale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation 221 11.3 Boreal Forests and Tundra 226 11.4 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs 230 11.5 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes 234 11.6 Epidemics as Critical Transitions 237 11.7 Synthesis 239 CHAPTER 12. Humans 240 12.1 Shifting Cells 242 12.2 Shifting Minds 243 12.3 Behavioral Lock-In 244 12.4 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes 246 12.5 Societies in Grisis 250 12.6 Synthesis 257 CHAPTER 13. Conclusion: Critical Transitions in a Compiex World 259