CONTAINING MISSILE PROLIFERATION Containing Missile Proliferation Strategic Technology, Security Regimes, and International Cooperation in Arms Control DINSHAW MISTRY UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON PRESS Seattle and London Copyright © 2003 by the University of Washington Press Printed in the United States of America All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mistry, Dinshaw. Containing missile proliferation : strategic technology, security regimes, and international cooperation in arms control / Dinshaw Mistry. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 0-295-98294-2 (alk. paper) I. Arms control. 2. Ballistic missiles. I. Title. JZ5665 .M57 2003 327. I '743-dc2 I 2002035697 The paper used in this publication is acid-free and recycled from 10 percent post-consumer and at least 50 percent pre-consumer waste. It meets the minimum requirements of American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39-48-1984. CONTENTS Preface vii Abbreviations ix 1 Introduction 3 2 Regimes, Technology, Politics, and Proliferation IS 3 Building a Supply-Side Regime 41 4 Argentina, Brazil, South Africa 74 5 South Korea, Taiwan, Arab States 89 6 Israel, India, Pakistan J09 7 North Korea and Iran 128 8 Toward a Treaty Regime 152 9 Conclusions 182 Appendix: Technical Notes on Missiles 199 Notes 202 Index 248 v TABLES I. I The Global Inventory of Ballistic Missiles, 200 I 10-II 2.1 Security, Economic, and Environmental Regimes 16 2.2 The Missile, Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Nonproliferation Regimes 18 2.3 Military Impairment Export Controls 24 2.4 National Economic and Industrial Data 27 2.5 National Technological Capability for Missile Manufacture 28 2.6 Factors Influencing National Missile Outcomes 34-35 3.1 MTCR Membership by Year 66 3.2 U.S. Missile Nonproliferation Sanctions 72 8.1 A Comparative Study of Eight Space Programs 169 8.2 The Architecture for a Missile Nonproliferation Regime 175 9.1 Calculating MTCR Effectiveness 185 AI Technical Data for Selected Ballistic Missiles 200 VI PREFACE T his is a study of international efforts to contain the proliferation of a partic ularly deadly military technology-long-range ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles enable states to rapidly deliver weapons of mass destruction over vast distances. Missile proliferation is therefore among the foremost concerns on the international security agenda. When faced with mutual challenges and concerns, states often coordinate their national policy responses through multilateral regimes. International regimes deal with a wide spectrum of issues ranging from interstate trade and commerce to environmental management to the control of armaments. Drawing upon well-established frameworks of international coop eration and regimes, this study examines multilateral responses to the challenge of missile proliferation. The study critically examines how well key technology suppliers such as Western states, Russia, and China have complied with the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR); it explores the missile programs of major regional powers-Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Israel, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran; and it outlines five prac tical ways to strengthen the MTCR and better contain missile proliferation. Such a study adds to cooperation theory by highlighting how cooperative regimes can be attained on particularly tough military security issues. It also provides a valuable policy blueprint on how regimes may tackle the missile threat and offer crucial safety nets if missile defense falls short. This book had its origins in my 1999 doctoral thesis, sections of which appeared in Contemporary Security Policy and Security Studies, and in con ference papers presented to policy-makers developing the MTCR's Code of Con duct and other missile nonproliferation initiatives. This study was supported by fellowships from the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSIA) at Harvard University; the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) at Stanford University; and the Program in Arms Control, Disarmament, and International Security (ACDIS) and Department of Political Science at the University of Illinois. I am particularly grateful for their support, and also thank Stephen Cohen, Paul Diehl, Edward Kolodziej, Scott Sagan, Lynn Eden, Rich ard Speier, Aaron Karp, Evan Medeiros, Steven Miller, John Garofano, Sean Lynn Jones, John Reppert, Michael Barletta, and many friends and colleagues at BCSIA, CISAC, ACDIS, Cincinnati, and Brookings for insightful comments and Vll assistance that greatly enhanced this study. This book also owes intellectual debts to a select group of missile experts whose writings on missile proliferation made my own research much easier and are extensively cited in the following pages. Finally, I thank Michael Duckworth, Marilyn Trueblood, Leila Charbonneau, and the University of Washington Press for their assistance with the publica tion of this study. ABBREVIATIONS ABM: antiballistic missile, Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty ACDA: Arms Control and Disannament Agency ADD: Agency for Defense Development BWC: Biological Weapons Convention CA T: Conventional Arms Transfer CBMS: Confidence-building measures COSTIND: Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense cwc: Chemical Weapons Convention DPRK: Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) DRDO: Defense Research and Development Organization ESA: European Space Agency FMCT: Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty GCS: Global Control System IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency INF: Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty ICBM: intercontinental ballistic missile IRBM: intermediate-range ballistic missile MIRV: multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle MTCR: Missile Technology Control Regime NBC: nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons NMD: national missile defense NPT: Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty NSG: Nuclear Suppliers Group ROK: Republic of Korea (South Korea) IX