Constructing Cassandra Constructing Cassandra REFRAMING INTELLIGENCE FAILURE AT THE CIA, 1947–2001 Milo Jones and Philippe Silberzahn Stanford Security Studies An Imprint of Stanford University Press Stanford, California Stanford University Press SSttaannffoorrdd ,U Cnailvifeorrsnitiya Press Stanford, California © 2013 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. A© l2l 0r1ig3h btys rtehsee Brvoeadr.d of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. 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Tdeislc: o(6u5n0t) i7n3f6o-r1m78a2ti,o Fna, xc:o (n6t5a0c)t 7 t3h6e- 1sp78ec4ial sales department of Stanford University Press. Tel: (650) 736-1782, Fax: (650) 736-1784 Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jones, Milo, author. JonCeosn, Mstriuloc,t ainugth Coar.ssandra : reframing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947–2001 / M iCloo nJosntreus catnindg P Chailsispapned Srial b: errezfraahmn.ing intelligence failure at the CIA, 1947–2001 / Mi lo pJaogneess camnd Philippe Silberzahn. I ncplaugdeess cbmibliographical references and index. IIISSnBBclNNud 99e77s88 b--00ib--l88i0o044g77ra--88p55h88ic00a--88l r((eccflleoorttehhn ::c aaellskk a.. nppdaa ppineerrd))ex. 1IISS. BBUNNn i99te77d88 --S00t--a88t0e04s4.77 C--98e35n83t60ra--08l I((ncptlboekltlh.i g: :ea anlklck.e .p pAaapgpeeernr)c)y—History. 2. Intelligence service— U n1i.t eUdn Sitteadte Ss—tatHesi.s tCoerny.t rIa.l SIinlbteelrlizgaehnnc,e P Ahgileinpcpye—, aHutihstoorr. yI. I.2 T. Iitnltee.lligence service— UnJiKte4d6 8S.tIa6tJe7s —20H13istory. I. Silberzahn, Philippe, author. II. Title. 3JK274.16287.I360J70 92'004135—dc23 327.1273009'045—dc23 2013010527 Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/14 Minion 2013010527 Typeset by Thompson Type in 10/14 Minion ISBN: 978-0-8047-8715-4 (electronic) ISBN: 978-0-8047-8715-4 (electronic) CONTENTS Preface and Acknowledgments vii Abbreviations ix Introduction 1 1 The Work of Intelligence 17 2 How the CIA Is Made 38 3 The Iranian Revolution 80 4 The Collapse of the USSR 102 5 The Cuban Missile Crisis 135 6 The Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 192 7 The CIA and the Future of Intelligence 234 Notes 255 Bibliography 335 Index 361 v PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS this book is the result of a unique collaboration between Milo Jones (on whose research it is based) and Philippe Silberzahn. Both Milo and Philippe would like to thank (in alphabetical order): Dr. Albena Azmanoza, Fiona Buckland, Ignacio Corrachano, Dr. Christopher Daase, Daniel Gastel, Jeremy Ghez, A. Edward Gottesman, Dr. Kent Gray- son, Lisel Hintz, the late Alan P. Jones Jr., Edith H. Jones, Dr. Elizabeth B. Jones, Frances C. Jones, Dr. Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, Bernhard Kerres, Dr. Mitchell Leimon, the late Dr. William Melczer, Ewa Moncure, Dr. Philippe Monin, Dr. Michael Palo, Prof. Richard Portes, Alastair Ross, Dr. Blair A. Ruble, Dr. Eitan Shamir, Dr. Jamie Shea, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Dr. Mark Teeter, and Dr. Jarrod Wiener; they also thank Allen Thomson, the late Christine Zummer, and other CIA employees (past and present) and members of the AFIO who wish to remain anonymous. Milo dedicates this book to his wife Ewa, daughter Emily, and to U.S. Ma- rines, past, present and future: Semper Fi. Philippe dedicates this book to his wife Chittima, daughter Margaux, and son Antoine. vii ABBREVIATIONS COSPO: Community Open Source Program Office CTC: Counterterrorism center (CIA) DCI: Director of Central Intelligence, head of the CIA DDCI: Deputy Director of Central Intelligence DI: Directorate of Intelligence DIA: Defense Intelligence Agency DO: Directorate of Operations DOD: Department of Defense HUMINT: Human Intelligence IC: Intelligence Community IMINT: Image Intelligence INR: Bureau of Intelligence and Research (State Department) MASINT: Measurement and Signature Intelligence NIC: National Intelligence Council NIE: National Intelligence Estimate NSC: National Security Council OIG: Office of Inspector General (CIA) OSINT: Open-source Intelligence SIGINT: Signal Intelligence SNIE: Special National Intelligence Estimate SOVA: Office of Soviet Analysis (CIA) ix