201401231postal:cover61404-postal.qxd 12/16/2014 11:38 PM Page 1 December 31, 2014 $4.99 KKEEVVIINN DD.. WWIILLLLIIAAMMSSOONN:: AAggaaiinnsstt PPoolliiccee SSeeccrreeccyy NNOORRDDLLIINNGGEERR oonn RRaanndd PPaauull FFOONNTTEE oonn JOHN R.BOLTON & JOHN YOO: RESISTING LAWLESS TREATIES FFuukkuuyyaammaa BBEEAAUUTTYY AAMMOONNGG TTHHEE RRUUIINNSS CCOONNSSEERRVVAATTIISSMM AANNDD TTHHEE PPOOSSTT--AAPPOOCCAALLYYPPTTIICC IIMMAAGGIINNAATTIIOONN IIAANN TTUUTTTTLLEE www.nationalreview.com base:milliken-mar 22.qxd 12/1/2014 2:55 PM Page 1 TOC:QXP-1127940144.qxp 12/17/2014 1:23 PM Page 1 Contents DECEMBER 31, 2014 | VOLUME LXVI, NO. 24 | www.nationalreview.com MERRY CHRISTMAS ON THE COVER Page 28 To Carry the Fire The End is always nigh, but it seems BOOKS, ARTS to be more nigh than usual of late. & MANNERS So say the novelists, who have 40 GETTING TO BRUSSELS recently inundated the mainstream John Fonte reviews Political Order literary market with fiction of the and Political Decay: From the Industrial Revolution to the post-apocalyptic type. Ian Tuttle Globalization of Democracy, by Francis Fukuyama. COVER: ISTOCK/EVERLITE 42 ROOTS OF A TYRANT James Schneider reviews Stalin— ARTICLES volume 1, Paradoxes of Power, 16 AGAINST SECRET POLICE by Kevin D. Williamson 1878–1928, by Stephen Kotkin. The presumption should be in favor of transparency. 43 WRITING THE COATTAILS 19 WHERE YOU ARE AND WHAT YOU SAY by Jay Nordlinger Andrew Stuttaford reviews Rand Paul and his ‘audacious outreach.’ The Churchill Factor: How 21 One Man Made History, FOLLIES OF THE FIFTH REPUBLIC by Robert Herritt by Boris Johnson. France’s political culture is even more maddening than ours. 24 47 THE GREAT CALVINIST THE RED-LIGHT DISTRICT by John J. Miller AMERICAN NOVEL At too many intersections, there are cameras of ill repute. Randy Boyagoda reviews Lila, 26 BEFORE YOU SAY NO . . . by Aloïse Buckley Heath by Marilynne Robinson. A correspondence, nonfictional, between a young boy, a housewife, 49 HOPE FOR AMERICA a headmaster, and the young boy’s brother. Peter Tonguette reviews Hope: Entertainer of the Century, by Richard Zoglin. FEATURES 28 TO CARRY THE FIRE by Ian Tuttle 51 FILM: THE LADY PREVAILS Post-apocalyptic fiction teaches us to remember and preserve the past. Ross Douthat reviews Wild. 31 ON A LARC by Robert VerBruggen Long-acting reversible contraception deserves tentative conservative support. SECTIONS 34 ADVICE ON ‘ADVICE AND CONSENT’ by John R. Bolton & John Yoo Congress can resist presidential departures from the Constitution’s 2 Letters to the Editor treaty requirement. 4 The Week 36 38 The Long View . . . . . . . Rob Long JUSTICE OF THE PEOPLE, BY THE PEOPLE, FOR THE PEOPLE 39 Athwart . . . . . . . . . . . James Lileks by Stephanos Bibas & Richard A. Bierschbach 48 Poetry . . . . . . . . . . . . Sally Cook Communities should tailor criminal law to suit their needs. 52 Happy Warrior . . . David Harsanyi NATioNALReview(iSSN: 0028-0038) is published bi-weekly, except for the first issue in January, by NATioNALReview, inc., at 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016. Periodicals postage paid at New York, N.Y., and additional mailing offices. ©National Review, inc., 2014. Address all editorial mail, manuscripts, letters to the editor, etc., to editorial Dept., NATioNALReview, 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016. Address all subscription mail orders, changes of address, undeliverable copies, etc., to NATioNALReview, Circulation Dept., P. o. Box 433015, Palm Coast, Fla. 32143-3015; phone, 386-246-0118, Monday–Friday, 8:00 A.M.to 10:30 P.M.eastern time. Adjustment requests should be accompanied by a current mailing label or facsimile. Direct classified advertising inquiries to: Classifieds Dept., NATioNALReview, 215 Lexington Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10016 or call 212-679- 7330. PoSTMASTeR: Send address changes to NATioNALReview, Circulation Dept., P. o. Box 433015, Palm Coast, Fla. 32143-3015. Printed in the U.S.A. RATeS: $59.00 a year (24 issues). Add $21.50 for Canada and other foreign subscriptions, per year. (All payments in U.S. currency.) The editors cannot be responsible for unsolicited manuscripts or artwork unless return postage or, better, a stamped, self-addressed envelope is enclosed. opinions expressed in signed articles do not necessarily represent the views of the editors. letters:QXP-1127940387.qxp 12/17/2014 12:43 PM Page 2 Letters DECEMBER31ISSUE; PRINTEDDECEMBER18 EDITOR Richard Lowry Fellow Heroes Senior Editors Richard Brookhiser / Jonah Goldberg / Jay Nordlinger Ramesh Ponnuru / David Pryce-Jones I read with great pleasure your piece in “The Week” (December 8) regarding Managing EditorJason Lee Steorts Literary Editor Michael Potemra the long-overdue awarding of the Medal of Honor to Lieutenant Alonzo Vice President, Editorial Operations Christopher McEvoy Washington Editor Eliana Johnson Cushing. However, I feel called upon to question one aspect of your other- Executive Editor Reihan Salam Roving Correspondent Kevin D. Williamson wise excellent piece. Lieutenant Cushing may not actually have threatened to National Correspondent John J. Miller shoot any man who retreated from his unit’s position during the Battle of Art DirectorLuba Kolomytseva Deputy Managing Editors Gettysburg. In the first place, such an act would have been totally alien to Katherine Connell / Nicholas Frankovich / Fred Schwarz Production EditorKatie Hosmer Lieutenant Cushing’s gentle character, and in the second place, such a threat Assistant to the EditorCarol Anne Kemp Research AssociateAlessandra Haynes would not have been needed. My great-grandfather, Sergeant Frederich Füger, Contributing Editors who took over the battery upon Cushing’s death, and who later guarded Shannen Coffin / Ross Douthat / Roman Genn Jim Geraghty / Florence King / Lawrence Kudlow Cushing’s body until Cushing’s brother Milton arrived to deliver it to West Mark R. Levin / Yuval Levin / Rob Long Point, described his commander as follows: “He was a most able soldier, a man Mario Loyola / Jim Manzi / Andrew C. McCarthy Kate O’Beirne / Andrew Stuttaford / Robert VerBruggen of excellent judgment, and great decision of character; he was most faithful in NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE the discharge of every duty, possessed of mental and physical vigor, joined to the Editor-at-LargeKathryn Jean Lopez Managing EditorEdward John Craig kindest of hearts; he commanded the love and respect of all who knew him.” News EditorTim Cavanaugh Opinion Editor Patrick Brennan Thank you again for your acknowledgment of Lieutenant Cushing and his National-Affairs ColumnistJohn Fund Staff Writer Charles C. W. Cooke heroism on July 3, 1863. Political Reporter Joel Gehrke John G. Northgraves Reporters Andrew Johnson / Katherine Timpf Millis, Mass. Associate Editors Molly Powell / Nat Brown Editorial Associates Brendan Bordelon / Christine Sisto THe eDITorS rePLy: Thank you for the explanation, Mr. Northgraves. As Technical ServicesRussell Jenkins you know, many accounts of the Battle of Gettysburg repeat the story of Web Developer Wendy Weihs Web Producer Scott McKim Lieutenant Cushing’s shouted threat, but at this point there is no way to de - EDITORS-AT-LARGE termine what may have been said on a thunderous and chaotic battlefield a Linda Bridges / John O’Sullivan century and a half ago. What is not even remotely in doubt, however, is NATIONAL REVIEW INSTITUTE BUCKLEY FELLOWS IN POLITICAL JOURNALISM Cushing’s bravery and dedication to the Union, and the justice of his finally Ryan Lovelace / Ian Tuttle Contributors joining your great-grandfather on the roll of recipients of our nation’s highest Hadley Arkes / Baloo / James Bowman military honor. Eliot A. Cohen / Dinesh D’Souza M. Stanton Evans / Chester E. Finn Jr. Neal B. Freeman / James Gardner David Gelernter / George Gilder / Jeffrey Hart Kevin A. Hassett / Charles R. Kesler A Kinder, Gentler Intelligence David Klinghoffer / Anthony Lejeune D. Keith Mano / Michael Novak Alan Reynolds / Tracy Lee Simmons To Ian Tuttle’s spot-on observations about the Left’s love affair with intellect, Terry Teachout / Vin Weber especially its own (“The IQ Cult,” December 8), I would add that our per - Chief Financial OfficerJames X. Kilbridge Accounting ManagerGalina Veygman ception of a person’s intelligence tends to be inversely proportional to our per- Accountant Zofia Baraniak ception of his niceness or warmth. In the United States, that dynamic is Business Services Alex Batey / Alan Chiu correlated with regional accents: Southerners, or at least those who speak like Circulation ManagerJason Ng WORLDWIDEWEBwww.nationalreview.com southerners, are felt to be “nicer” than those who speak like northerners, but MAINNUMBER212-679-7330 SUBSCRIPTIONINQUIRIES386-246-0118 northerners are felt to be “smarter” and “in charge,” according to a recent WASHINGTONOFFICE202-543-9226 study. ADVERTISINGSALES212-679-7330 Executive Publisher Scott F. Budd Candidates for public office need to balance the two dimensions, perceived Advertising DirectorJim Fowler Advertising ManagerKevin Longstreet intelligence and perceived warmth. A low-information politician can always Assistant to the PublisherEmily Gray educate himself, but it’s harder for a cold fish to transform himself into a Director of Philanthropy and CampaignsScott Lange Associate PublisherPaul Olivett teddy bear, though he might begin with a dash of self-deprecating humor. Director of DevelopmentHeyward Smith Director of RevenueErik Netcher When asked about the plight of the intellectual in politics, Adlai Stevenson Vice President, CommunicationsAmy K. Mitchell admitted that “via ovicapitum dura est.” PUBLISHER Jack Fowler Duane Sims CHAIRMAN Mount Pleasant, S.C. John Hillen CHAIRMAN EMERITUS Thomas L. Rhodes FOUNDER Letters may be subm itted by e-mail to [email protected]. William F. Buckley Jr. 2 | www.nationalreview.com DECEMBER 31, 2014 base:milliken-mar 22.qxd 12/17/2014 2:09 PM Page 1 week:QXP-1127940387.qxp 12/17/2014 1:48 PM Page 4 The Week nThink about it from Jeb’s perspective: Would you want to be the only Bush who doesn’t get to be president? nAn armed Islamic radical took hostages in a café in central Sydney; after a day-long standoff, he was killed by police. Two hostages also died. The hostage taker was no stranger to crime. An Iranian who had been given asylum in Australia in 1996, he had been convicted in 2012 of sending Westboro Baptist–style hate mail to the families of dead Australian soldiers. He was on bail for being an accessory in the murder of his ex-wife, and he faced 40 charges of sexual and indecent assault. Authorities hast ened to say that he acted on his own. But so these days does many a terrorist. Australia’s intact self-confidence and its immi- gration control will serve it well in coming years. nWith the federal government set to run out of funding in the middle of December, Republican and Democratic leaders in Congress managed to pass a bill that almost no one liked. The legislation will fund most of the federal government through the end of next September and the Department of Homeland Security just through February. There are some welcome details in the bill—a prohibition on taxpayer dollars’ being spent to bail out Obamacare insurers, for instance—but it was nonethe- less a mistake. The party that easily won control of Congress last month now won’t get to set spending for another nine nDuring this fight, Warren got a free pass from those who in months. And it has punted instead of taking an early opportuni- other contexts are quick to scry threats to shut down the govern- ty to refuse complicity in President Obama’s unconstitutional ment. What the gods (liberal Democrats) can threaten, swine immigration policy. There were other options: As the bill near- (conservative Republicans) may not. She also got queries about ly collapsed under attacks from the left and the right, it looked her ambitions: Although she told NPR “I’m not running for pres- like all parties would have been willing to pass a short-term ident,” NPR noted that her demurral was in the present tense funding bill, allowing Republicans to assert themselves in the only. Warren and her supporters would be foolish not to consid- spring. But Republican leaders have not given many indications er a run. Hillary Clinton has several liabilities (including her and that asserting their party’s positions on the budget is a high her husband’s addiction to promiscuous fundraising), and War - priority. ren would be equally historic, i.e., female. The left wing of the Democratic party—what other wing is there?—could be dark nSenator Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) used the government- and bloody ground. funding debate to reinforce the impression that she is more in - terested in sound bites than sound policy. She, joined by House nA district court has concluded that President Obama’s immi- liberals, threatened to derail the proposed bill because it repealed gration order rewrites the law and is thus unconstitutional. Among a piece of the Dodd-Frank financial-regulation legislation. But those who appear to agree with this premise is the president him- it’s a very small piece indeed, and one of dubious merit. It forced self. Taking questions at Nashville’s Casa Azafrán community banks to “push out” trading of certain kinds of derivatives to center in early December, he reassured an audience member that, subsidiaries that don’t have federal deposit insurance. Warren, because of the Department of Homeland Security’s reshuffled and even some conservatives, presented this regulation as a immigration-enforcement priorities, “at the top are criminals, peo- commonsense way to prevent banks from making “risky bets” ple who pose a threat, and at the bottom are ordinary people who with “taxpayer money.” That’s a complete misstatement of the are otherwise law-abiding. And what we’re saying, essentially, is rule’s content and effects, but it was an appealing fight for in that low-priority list, you won’t be a priority for deportation. Warren to pick. Wall Street wants to start dismantling Dodd- You’re not going to be deported. We’re not going to keep on sep- Frank—not the worst idea we’ve heard from downtown—and arating families.” The comment comes shortly after the president GENN Wselavrreesn i ann tdh oet hpeors lti-bOebraalms wa aenrta .t oT shtaisr t smkiarkminisgh a, ninam weh fiocrh t hWemal-l thoaldd ian h feacckt l“ecrh iann Cghedic tahgeo l tahwa.t”, cWoneltlr,a irty’s t oal pwraeyvsio euass iaesrs utor abnec feosr, thhe- OMAN Street triumphed, certainly won’t be their last. right when you think you’ll get away with it. R 4 | www.nationalreview.com DECEMBER 31, 2014 base:milliken-mar 22.qxd 12/16/2014 12:22 PM Page 1 Masters of War: History’s Greatest Strategic Thinkers Taught by Professor Andrew R. Wilson U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE LECTURE TITLES E D TIME MIT OFF 1. Why Strategy Matters LI E 2. Thucydides on Strategy 70% R 3. Thucydides as a Possession for All Time 4. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War off 5. Sun Tzu through Time 2 O Y 6. Machiavelli’s The Art of War RD A R 7. Machiavelli’s Discourses on Livy ER BY JA N U 8. The Napoleonic Revolution in War 9. Baron Jomini as a Strategist 10. Clausewitz’s On War 11. Jomini and Clausewitz through the Ages 12. From Sail to Steam—The Sea-Power Revolution 13. Alfred Thayer Mahan 14. Sir Julian Corbett 15. Mahan, Corbett, and the Pacifi c War 16. Air Power in Theory and Practice 17. From Rolling Thunder to Instant Thunder 18. Nuclear Strategy 19. Mao Tse-tung in Theory and Practice 20. Classics of Counterinsurgency 21. Just-War Theory 22. Terrorism as Strategy 23. Strategies of Counterterrorism 24. From the Jaws of Defeat— Strategic Adaptation Masters of War: History’s Greatest Strategic Thinkers Course no. 9422 | 24 lectures (30 minutes/lecture) What Can History’s Masters SAVE UP TO $185 of War Teach Us Today? 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Just a world of knowledge military strategy and the decisive ways leaders adapt to the realm of available anytime, anywhere. Download or stream fog, friction, and chance. to your laptop or PC, or use our free mobile apps for iPad, iPhone, or Android. Over 500 courses Off er expires 01/02/15 available at www.TheGreatCourses.com. THEGREATCOURSES.COM/6NATR Please note: The views expressed in this course are those of the professor and do not necessarily reflect the position or policy of the U.S. 1-800-832-2412 Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government. week:QXP-1127940387.qxp 12/17/2014 1:48 PM Page 6 THE WEEK nRepresentative Bill Cassidy (R., La.) won a convincing vic- table and raped for hours on the resultant bed of glass shards, and tory over three-term senator Mary Landrieu, giving the Re pub - to have been dissuaded from reporting the crime by the concerns li cans a 54th seat in next year’s Senate. Commentators of friends who, if Rolling­Stoneis to be believed, acted with de - noted that Democrats had gone praved indifference to her plight. The magazine’s defenders are nearly extinct in the South. laboring to switch the subject from the particulars of the story to As Sean Trende explained at the greater good of raising consciousness. That they have done, Real­Clear­Politics, though, this at least concerning journalistic malpractice. trend followed the prior near- extinction of the conservative nLena Dunham, television writer and feminist activist, went to southern Democrat. Even ten Oberlin College with a young Republican named Barry. She years ago, southern Dem o crats later wrote a memoir in which she claimed to have been raped at —Landrieu included—bucked Oberlin College by a young Republican named Barry. Oberlin is their party more often. In the not exactly thick with Republicans, there having been precisely Obama years, they have fre- one of them named Barry at the college during Dunham’s time. quently felt obliged to stand The man in question told NATIONALREVIEWthat he has never with a liberal national party. so much as met Dunham, and he has hired a lawyer to help him They can ponder that choice in clear his name, something that got the attention of the litigious Bill Cassidy retirement. Dunham (who has in recent memory threatened to sue Gawker and Truth­Revolt) and her publisher, Random House. Dunham nOur economy, at long last, appears to be gathering strength. claims that her choice of the name “Barry” was without malice, Job growth and industrial production are up, oil prices are but that is a coincidence beyond believing, which is not helped down, and inflation remains subdued. This has happened with- by the fact that her memoir notes in other instances that names out much real help from Washington, and indeed policy has have been changed, but not in this one. For the record, Lena been counterproductive overall, creating new obstacles to the Dunham wrote that she was raped by an Oberlin Republican creation of jobs and wealth. Conservatives will naturally fear named Barry and now says that she was not raped by an Oberlin that the good news, if it lasts, will redound to the undeserved Republican named Barry. At least she didn’t take her story to credit of President Obama and the Democrats. They should, Rolling­Stone. however, have room to make the case that better policies would have made for a stronger and earlier recovery and would still nThe University of California at Irvine is offering students grief have a positive effect. At the same time, the Left’s resentment- counseling to help them cope with the trauma of the shooting of based take on matters economic may lose some of its appeal. Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., 1,832 miles away. MSNBC So: Rejoice, and prepare. will have to offer Chris Hayes the same service when the story fades away. nAfter Jonathan Gruber became radioactive, Democrats, and their pliant media factota, began trying to minimize his role in nWith both chambers of Congress, Republicans have the power the writing of Obamacare, with Jonathan Chait of New­York to appoint a new director of the Congressional Budget Office. insisting that the professor “played no direct role in writing the Some of them, however, do not want to exercise the power. They law.” Gruber himself told Representative Cynthia Lummis (R., say that the current director, Democrat Doug Elmendorf, is a Wyo.): “I didn’t draft the legislation.” And then more videos straight shooter and that when he provides evidence against lib- were discovered, in which Gruber said of the ACA: “I helped eral orthodoxy—as when the CBO said that hiking the minimum write it. . . . I was involved in writing the legislation.” In 2012, wage would suppress job growth—his party affiliation gives it the New­York­Timesreported that Gruber was being dispatched extra weight. Other Republicans say Elmendorf has been too “to Capitol Hill to help Congressional staff members draft the favorable toward liberal legislation, particularly the health-care specifics of the legislation.” After all this time, the Democrats law. They want a director who will push the agency to adopt are still banking on—how did Gruber phrase it?—“the stupidity “dynamic scoring” that reduces the estimated impact of tax cuts of the American voter.” on the budget by taking account of how they can boost econom- ic growth. Dynamic scoring is a good idea, but conservatives are nWhen Sabrina Rubin Erdely was commissioned by Rolling fooling themselves if they think that it will change the numbers Stoneto write an article on rape, she did not start where rape is a great deal over the ten-year time frames the CBO considers: likely to happen (jails, single-mother homes) but at the places Tax cuts will not perk up the economy that much. What might that resonate with Rolling­Stone’s perpetually adolescent reader- make a difference is if the CBO took on a different role: assist- ship: college campuses. Finding no gonzo rape at Harvard or ing in the creation of a model, available for anyone’s use, of the Yale, Erdely targeted the University of Virginia: her rape safety impact of public policies on the budget. That way all of the as - school. She insisted that the rape happen at a fraternity party and sumptions used to generate estimates would be open for inspec- that it be monstrous, irrespective of whether there had in fact tion and debate. This new CBO would be more helpful and less been a monstrous rape at a UVA fraternity party. Erdely con- oracular—and, of course, would have a new director. /THRELKELDAP tnoyef cbhtreeordt sh wteorirt wyh a“hbJoao tcuuktri nbes,e” io nwugth lnoeo dht aitnos t tbooe lald ob anrtgu l tetaoal sagt afthrnargte erera ndpiietsy tb,i nyoc rat p vfrreoarbtse airobnnliys- innsGuoravnecren ocro Amnpdarnewie sC iuno mthoe (sDta.t,e N s.Yha.)l lh caos visesru tehde a e fxiapte tnhsaet aolfl SCOTT to exist. 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THE BEST SOURCE FOR COINS WORLDWIDE™ week:QXP-1127940387.qxp 12/17/2014 1:48 PM Page 8 THE WEEK has been rechristened “gender-confirmation surgery”). Pre - There is a great deal of that kind of thinking when it comes to viously, insurers had declined to subsidize some procedures, this issue: The American Psychiatric Association renamed e.g., the elective amputation of healthy breasts, on the grounds what had been “gender-identity disorder” “gender dysphoria,” that they are cosmetic, which they are by definition. Governor in order to remove the stigma of the word “disorder” from its Cuomo’s sex-change fiat means that cosmetic procedures are entry . . . in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental not cosmetic if the governor of New York desires that it be so. Disorders. Why list it there at all? So that Governor Cuomo Are the Police Biased? I N the wake of the deaths of Michael Brown and Eric deaths unrelated to a violent crime, it would show up in Garner, massive street protests over the perceived this chart, because it would take fewer crimes to induce racial bias of our police have spread across the coun- one statistical death. If police were more likely to respond try. That perception reflects the unquestioned fact that to a violent crime with excessive force, it would show up African Americans are more likely to be targets of ex - in this chart as well. But in the chart, police appear to be treme police actions. treating the races the same. But understanding the relationship between African- The series does diverge at the end of the sample. If that American communities and law enforcement requires a trend continues when more data become available, it deeper analysis than a single headline, or, in the case of could be an indication that people are being treated dif- Mr. Garner, a chilling video, can offer. African Americans ferently based on their race. But on average, the proba- engage in a disproportionately large amount of crime bility of police-related death is about the same for each (and constitute a disproportionately large share of the race; a sweeping nationwide police bias is not apparent victims, since criminals tend to prey on people similar to in the numbers. themselves). A couple of cautions are worth mentioning, however. An individual who commits crimes is more likely to First, it may be that crimes against African Americans have a hostile encounter with the police than an indi - are underestimated by the victimization survey, and this vidual who does not, and the hostility of these police anal y sis is only as good as those data. A number of encounters would be difficult to judge as unnecessary. A recent re ports have also suggested that some major racist and violent cop, however, might well accost an cities, such as New York, have systematically failed individual who is not involved in a violent crime at all. to report deaths re lat ed to police activity accurately. One simple way to check for bias is to see whether the Second, the available data do not allow us to separate number of violent crimes needed to explain one police- data for whites from data for Hispanics. If white cops are related death is different depending on one’s race. highly biased against both African Americans and His - To gauge how often unfriendly encounters with police panics, then both lines in the chart would be affected by lead to death, we will use Bureau of Justice Statistics this bias. data on arrest-related death. To measure how often That said, the safest conclusion is that the evidence African Americans and white Americans engage in available does not support the view that police are behaviors likely to result in a hostile encounter with biased. police, we will use violent-crime-victimization data from —KEVIN A. HASSETT the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimi- zation Survey, in which the victims of violent crime report the perceived race of the perpetrator. We divide the num- Number of Violent Crimes Statistically ber of violent crimes by the arrest-related deaths for each Required for Arrest-Related Death race. The quotient tells us, on average, how many violent crimes it takes, by race, to produce one arrest-related death. If police are unambiguously racist, then it should 10,000 White (including Hispanic) take fewer violent crimes to induce one death in the Black 9,000 African-American community. As the chart shows, according to our data, African 8,000 Americans and white Americans have roughly the same proportion of violent crimes to police-related deaths. 7,000 Whites, on average, experienced over the entire sample 6,000 period one death for every 6,701 violent crimes. African Americans experienced one death for every 6,609 violent 5,000 crimes. These numbers are strikingly similar. The differ- ence between them is small, and not statistically signifi- 4,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 cant. If more individuals of a given race died arrest-related SOURCE: AUTHOR’S CALCULATIONS; BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS 8 | www.nationalreview.com DECEMBER 31, 2014