FRONTIERS OF GLOBALIZATION Climate, Chaos and Collective Behaviour A Rising Fickleness Jaap van Ginneken Frontiers of Globalization Series Editor Jan Nederveen Pieterse Global Studies Department University of California Santa Barbara, CA, USA With the onset of the twenty-first century, key components of the architecture of twentieth-century globalization have been crumbling. American hegemony has weakened politically and economically. Laissez- faire capitalism that shaped neoliberal globalization has proved to be crisis-prone and is giving way to a plurality of ways of organizing and regulating capitalism. With the rise of emerging societies, the driving forces of the world economy are shifting not merely geographically but structurally; industrializing societies, rather than postindustrial consumer societies, are again propelling the world economy. These changes involve major breaks: an era of multipolarity; the affirmation of the plurality of capitalisms; the emergence of new modernities; and the new patterns of East-South and South-South relations, in contrast to the North-South relations. These changes unfold on a global scale and cannot be properly understood on a national, regional or even international basis. Understanding these changes requires interdisciplinary and kaleidoscopic approaches that range from global political economy to cultural transforma- tions. The series welcomes contributions to global studies that are inno- vative in topic, approach or theoretical framework. Since the fin-de-regime of the millennium, with globalization in the throes of dramatic change, the series will cater to the growing interest in material on contemporary globalization and its ramifications. Proposals can be submitted by mail to the series editor: Jan Nederveen Pieterse, Mellichamp Professor of Global Studies and Sociology, Global & International Studies Program, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-7065, USA Jaap van Ginneken Climate, Chaos and Collective Behaviour A Rising Fickleness Jaap van Ginneken Amersfoort, The Netherlands Frontiers of Globalization ISBN 978-3-031-15236-8 ISBN 978-3-031-15237-5 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15237-5 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Preface I could honestly title this book “What I wish I had known forty years ago.” It is a book of ideas, observations and lessons learned, not a book of management techniques. —Richard Farson, American management consultant1 Of all the prizes that come from surviving more than 50 years, the best is the freedom to be eccentric. What a joy to be able to explore the physical and mental bounds of existence in safety and comfort, without bothering whether I look or sound foolish. —James Lovelock, British environmentalist2 Upon completion, this book suddenly surged in relevance and topical- ity. Because the October 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to a Japanese, a German and an Italian scholar ‘for groundbreaking models of the hidden rules that govern complex systems, including predictions of the human impact on the Earth’s climate’.3 This theory had emerged from Chaos theory, and it also applies to the Covid pandemic. 1 p. 16. 2 p. 3. 3 American Physical Society Newsletter, Oct. 5, 2021. v vi Preface The book focuses on a readable scientific explanation in ten steps of Complex Systems, Chaos theory and the new family of related notions around it, that seem strange and hard to understand at first. It then takes it one step further, by applying it to the psycho-social sciences. In par- ticular to the mysterious domains of mass psychology and collective behavior sociology, that deal with capricious ‘rapids’ in our mutual inter- actions. Fake news, rumors, urban legends, conspiracy theories and more—here all about Climate change and Covid. It also looks at new social movements, protests, confrontations, riots, violence, from this perspective. Media hypes, panic, financial crises. Earlier everyday certainties lose their grip, as if public opinion and com- munication become ever more volatile, from one day to the next. Just look at today’s newspaper, or evening television news. Small items in them may suddenly turn out to have huge implications. Yet we still live under the illusion, that everything is well under con- trol, or can easily be brought under control. But this is not true, and ever less so. Our whole world is changing, more rapidly than ever before. But we don’t understand why and how this is the case. As we still cling to the naïve superstition of the Holy Trinity of mechanicist science. Meaning: To measure is to know; to know is to predict; to predict is to control. In doing so, we have consistently avoided other phenomena, more volatile ones: 10, 1 or 0.1% of them. They obey an entirely different, seemingly illogical logic. What is more: they tend to periodically derail our certainties in dramatic ways, and confront us with mysterious occur- rences. We have no idea how they come about. But if we further delve into them, they suddenly open unknown vistas into another world, like through Alice’s looking glass. Every new discovery triggers an Aha Erlebnis, the recognition of a new creative insight. Upon publication of an earlier different forerunner of this book, long sold out, there were enthusiastic reactions from reviewers, at home and abroad. Some talked about a paradigm shift, an entirely new way of looking at the subject. The introduction in the first section of each chapter does once again look at one lively current example of the phenomenon in Preface vii question.4 The chapter then continues with a further elaboration of that category, in terms of mass psychology and collective behavior sociology. But in the last section, it skips to similar processes in nature and the natural sciences, for parallel insights. That often provides a surprising twist. Amersfoort, The Netherlands Jaap van Ginneken 4 Earlier case studies were based on the huge archives with clippings and files which I kept on all related subjects (48 mover’s boxes in all). This time, I have limited myself to current press clippings and broadcasting texts from serious media. All literal quotes and precise data are well-documented. But as this publication is aimed at a somewhat larger audience, the number of notes has been drastically reduced. Praise for Collective Behavior and Public Opinion “A rather enjoyable read.” —Anthony E. Adams, American Communication Journal, USA “Alternative explanations … Very readable.” —International Journal of Public Opinion Research ix Contents Part I Mind Quakes 1 1 Public Opinion as a Complex Adaptive System (CAS) 3 2 The Continuous Mutation of Informal Messages 29 3 Circular Reaction in Media Hypes 55 Part II Emerging Collective Behavior 81 4 The Formation of Synergy in Crowds 85 5 The Emergence of Patterns in Opinion Currents 109 6 The Self-Organization of Social Movements 139 xi