Climate change implications FAO FISHERIES AnD AquACultuRE for fisheries and aquaculture tECHnICAl PAPER 530 Overview of current scientific knowledge Edited by Kevern Cochrane Chief Fisheries Management and Conservation Service Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy Cassandra De Young Fishery Policy Analyst Fisheries and Aquaculture Economics and Policy Division FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy Doris Soto Senior Fisheries Resources Officer (Aquaculture) Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy Tarûb Bahri Fishery Resources Officer Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Division FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS Rome, 2009 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 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Applications for such permission should be addressed to: Chief Electronic Publishing Policy and Support Branch Communication Division FAO Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00153 Rome, Italy or by e-mail to: [email protected] © FAO 2009 iii Preparation of this document This document was prepared in response to the request from the twenty-seventh session of the Committee on Fisheries (COFI) that the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (FI) should undertake a scoping study to identify the key issues on climate change and fisheries. It contains the three comprehensive technical papers that formed the basis for the technical discussions during the Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture held from 7 to 9 April 2008 at FAO headquarters. The conclusions and recommendation of this Expert Workshop are available in the 2008 FAO Fisheries Report No. 870. The three papers in this document intend to provide an overview of the current available knowledge on the possible impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture. The first addresses climate variability and change and their physical and ecological consequences on marine and freshwater environments. The second tackles the consequences of climate change impacts on fishers and their communities and reviews possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be implemented. Finally, the third addresses specifically the impacts of climate change on aquaculture and reviews possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be implemented. All participants in the Expert Workshop are gratefully acknowledged for providing comments and helping to improve the three technical papers included in this publication. Funding for the organization of the Expert Workshop and the publication of this Technical Paper was provided by the Governments of Italy and Norway through activities related to the FAO High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy (Rome, 3–5 June 2008). iv Abstract An overview of the current scientific knowledge available on climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture is provided through three technical papers that were presented and discussed during the Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture (Rome, 7–9 April 2008). A summary of the workshop outcomes as well as key messages on impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems and on fisheries- and aquaculture-based livelihoods are provided in the introduction of this Technical Paper. The first paper reviews the physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture. The paper begins with a review of the physical impacts of climate change on marine and freshwater systems and then connects these changes with observed effects on fish production processes. It also outlines a series of scenarios of climate change impacts on fish production and ecosystems through case studies in different regions and ecosystems. The second paper tackles the consequences of climate change impacts on fisheries and their dependent communities. It analyses the exposure, sensitivity and vulnerability of fisheries to climate change and presents examples of adaptive mechanisms currently used in the sector. The contribution of fisheries to greenhouse gas emissions is addressed and examples of mitigation strategies are given. The role of public policy and institutions in promoting climate change adaptation and mitigation is also explored. Finally, the third paper addresses the impacts of climate change on aquaculture. It provides an overview of the current food fish and aquaculture production and a synthesis of existing studies on climate change effects on aquaculture and fisheries. The paper focuses on the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on aquaculture, in terms of biodiversity, fish disease and fishmeal. Contribution of aquaculture to climate change is addressed (carbon emission and carbon sequestration), as well as possible adaptation and mitigation measures that could be implemented. Cochrane, K.; De Young, C.; Soto, D.; Bahri, T. (eds). Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture: overview of current scientific knowledge. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Technical Paper. No. 530. Rome, FAO. 2009. 212p. v Contents Preparation of this document iii Abstract iv Introduction 1 Physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture 7 (M. Barange and R.I. Perry) Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation 107 (t. Daw, W.n. Adger, K. Brown and M.-C. Badjeck) Climate change and aquaculture: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation 151 (S.S. De Silva and D. Soto) 1 Introduction GENERAL BACKGROUND ON CLIMATE CHANGE The threats of climate change to human society and natural ecosystems have been elevated to a top priority since the release of the fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2007. While the importance of fisheries and aquaculture is often understated, the implications of climate change for these sectors and for coastal and riparian communities in general are difficult to ignore. At the same time, fisheries and aquaculture do contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, although in a relatively minor way, and present some opportunities for mitigation efforts. From local to global levels, fisheries and aquaculture play important roles for food supply, food security and income generation. Some 43.5 million people work directly in the sector, with the great majority in developing countries. Adding those who work in associated processing, marketing, distribution and supply industries, the sector supports nearly 200 million livelihoods. Aquatic foods have high nutritional quality, contributing 20 percent or more of average per capita animal protein intake for more than 1.5 billion people, mostly from developing countries. They are also the most widely traded foodstuffs and are essential components of export earnings for many poorer countries. The sector has particular significance for small island States, who depend on fisheries and aquaculture for at least 50% of their animal protein. Climate change is projected to impact broadly across ecosystems, societies and economies, increasing pressure on all livelihoods and food supplies, including those in the fisheries and aquaculture sector. Food quality will have a more pivotal role as food resources come under greater pressure and the availability and access to fish supplies will become an increasingly critical development issue. The fisheries sector differs from mainstream agriculture and has distinct interactions and needs with respect to climate change. Capture fisheries has unique features of natural resource harvesting linked with global ecosystem processes. Aquaculture complements and increasingly adds to supply and, though more similar to agriculture in its interactions, has important links with capture fisheries. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in recognizing the likely changes to come and the interactions between fisheries and aquaculture, agriculture and forestry and these changes, held a High-Level Conference on World Food Security: the Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy at FAO headquarters in Rome from 3 to 5 June 2008. This conference addressed food security and poverty reduction issues in the face of climate change and energy security. The FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (FI) held an Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture, from 7 to 9 April 20081, in order to provide the FAO Conference with a coherent and high quality understanding of the fisheries and aquaculture climate change issues. This Workshop provided inputs into the High-Level Conference and also constitutes a response to the request from the twenty-seventh session of the FAO Committee on Fisheries (COFI) that “FAO should undertake a scoping study to identify the key issues on climate change and fisheries, initiate a discussion on how the fishing industry can adapt to climate change, 1 FAO. 2008. Report of the FAO Expert Workshop on Climate Change Implications for Fisheries and Aquaculture. Rome, Italy, 7–9 April 2008. FAO Fisheries Report. No. 870. Rome, FAO. 2008. 32p. 2 Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture – Overview of current scientific knowledge and for FAO to take a lead in informing fishers and policy-makers about the likely consequences of climate change for fisheries”. CONCLUSIONS OF THE FAO EXPERT WORKSHOP ON CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE (ROME, 7–9 APRIL 2008) This Expert Workshop was convened to identify and review the key issues of climate change in relation to fisheries and aquaculture, from the physical changes, the impacts of those changes on aquatic resources and ecosystems and how these ecological impacts translate into human dimensions of coping and adapting within fisheries and aquaculture. Three comprehensive background documents were developed to help to inform the technical discussions and are included in the present publication: – Physical and ecological impacts of climate change relevant to marine and inland capture fisheries and aquaculture by Manuel Barange and Ian Perry; – Climate change and capture fisheries: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation by Tim Daw, Neil Adger, Katrina Brown and Marie-Caroline Badjeck; – Climate change and aquaculture: potential impacts, adaptation and mitigation by Sena De Silva and Doris Soto. One of the key messages that came out of the discussions after analysing the three documents is that climate change is a compounding threat to the sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture development. Impacts occur as a result of both gradual warming and associated physical changes as well as from frequency, intensity and location of extreme events, and take place in the context of other global socio-economic pressures on natural resources. An outline of the main impacts on ecosystems and livelihoods and their implications for food security was produced by the workshop. Urgent adaptation measures are required in response to opportunities and threats to food and livelihood provision due to climatic variations. Ecosystem impacts The workshop concluded that in terms of physical and biological impacts, climate change is modifying the distribution of marine and freshwater species. In general, warm-water species are being displaced towards the poles and are experiencing changes in the size and productivity of their habitats. In a warmed world, ecosystem productivity is likely to be reduced in most tropical and subtropical oceans, seas and lakes and increased in high latitudes. Increased temperatures will also affect fish physiological processes; resulting in both positive and negative effects on fisheries and aquaculture systems depending on the region and latitude. Climate change is already affecting the seasonality of particular biological processes, altering marine and freshwater food webs, with unpredictable consequences for fish production. Increased risks of species invasions and spreading of vector-borne diseases provide additional concerns. Differential warming between land and oceans and between polar and tropical regions will affect the intensity, frequency and seasonality of climate patterns (e.g. El Niño) and extreme weather events (e.g. floods, droughts and storms). These events will impact the stability of related marine and freshwater resources. Sea level rise, glacier melting, ocean acidification and changes in precipitation, groundwater and river flows will significantly affect coral reefs, wetlands, rivers, lakes and estuaries; requiring adaptive measures to exploit opportunities and minimise impacts on fisheries and aquaculture systems. Impacts on livelihoods The workshop noted that changes in distribution, species composition and habitats will require changes in fishing practices and aquaculture operations, as well as in the location of landing, farming and processing facilities. Introduction 3 Extreme events will also impact on infrastructure, ranging from landing and farming sites to post-harvest facilities and transport routes. They will also affect safety at sea and settlements, with communities living in low-lying areas at particular risk. Water stress and competition for water resources will affect aquaculture operations and inland fisheries production, and are likely to increase conflicts among water- dependent activities. Livelihood strategies will have to be modified, for example, with changes in fishers migration patterns due to changes in timing of fishing activities. Reduced livelihood options inside and outside the fishery sector will force occupational changes and may increase social pressures. Livelihood diversification is an established means of risk transfer and reduction in the face of shocks, but reduced options for diversification will negatively affect livelihood outcomes. There are particular gender dimensions, including competition for resource access, risk from extreme events and occupational change in areas such as markets, distribution and processing, in which women currently play a significant role. The implications of climate change affect the four dimensions of food security: – availability of aquatic foods will vary through changes in habitats, stocks and species distribution; – stability of supply will be impacted by changes in seasonality, increased variance in ecosystem productivity and increased supply variability and risks; – access to aquatic foods will be affected by changes in livelihoods and catching or farming opportunities; and – utilization of aquatic products will also be impacted and, for example, some societies and communities will need to adjust to species not traditionally consumed. Carbon footprints of fisheries and aquaculture The workshop agreed that fisheries and aquaculture activities make a minor but still significant contribution to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during production operations and the transport, processing and storage of fish. There are significant differences in the emissions associated with the sub-sectors and with the species targeted or cultured. The primary mitigation route for the sector lies in its energy consumption, through fuel and raw material use, though as with other food sectors, management of distribution, packaging and other supply chain components will also contribute to decreasing the sector’s carbon footprint. Greenhouse gas contributions of fisheries, aquaculture and related supply chain features are small when compared with other sectors but, nevertheless can be improved, with identifiable measures already available. In many instances, climate change mitigation could be complementary to and reinforce existing efforts to improve fisheries and aquaculture sustainability (e.g. reducing fishing effort and fleet capacity in order to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions and reducing fishmeal reliance in aquaculture). Technological innovations could include energy reduction in fishing practices and aquaculture production and more efficient post-harvest and distribution systems. There may also be important interactions for the sector with respect to environmental services (e.g. maintaining the quality and function of coral reefs, coastal margins, inland watersheds), and potential carbon sequestration and other nutrient management options, but these will need further research and development (R&D). The sustainable use of genetic diversity, including through biotechnologies, could have particular efficiency impacts (e.g. through widening production scope of low-impact aquaculture species, aquaculture systems, or making agricultural crop materials or waste products usable for growing carnivorous aquatic species) but would need to be evaluated on wider social, ecological and political criteria. 4 Climate change implications for fisheries and aquaculture – Overview of current scientific knowledge Mitigation R&D expenditure will need to be justified clearly by comparison with other sectors whose impacts could be much greater, but policy influence could already be used to support more efficient practices using available approaches. Possible negative impacts of mitigation on food security and livelihoods would have to be better understood, justified where relevant, and minimized. Adapting to change Although resource-dependent communities have adapted to change throughout history, projected climate change poses multiple additional risks to fishery dependent communities that might limit the effectiveness of past adaptive strategies. The workshop concluded that adaptation strategies will require to be context and location specific and to consider impacts both short-term (e.g. increased frequency of severe events) and long-term (e.g. reduced productivity of aquatic ecosystems). All three levels of adaptation (community, national and regional) will clearly require and benefit from stronger capacity building, through awareness raising on climate change impacts on fisheries and aquaculture, promotion of general education and targeted initiatives in and outside the sector. Options to increase resilience and adaptability through improved fisheries and aquaculture management include the adoption as standard practice of adaptive and precautionary management. The ecosystem approaches to fisheries (EAF) and to aquaculture (EAA) should be adopted to increase the resilience of aquatic resources ecosystems, fisheries and aquaculture production systems, and aquatic resource- dependent communities. Aquaculture systems, which are less or non-reliant on fishmeal and fish oil inputs (e.g. bivalves and macroalgae), have better scope for expansion than production systems dependent on capture fisheries commodities. Adaptation options also encompass diversification of livelihoods and promotion of aquaculture crop insurance in the face of potentially reduced or more variable yields. In the face of more frequent severe weather events, strategies for reducing vulnerabilities of fishing and fish farming communities have to address measures including: investment and capacity building on improved forecasting; early warning systems; safer harbours and landings; and safety at sea. More generally, adaptation strategies should promote disaster risk management, including disaster preparedness, and integrated coastal area management. National climate change adaptation and food security policies and programmes would need to fully integrate the fisheries and aquaculture sector (and, if non-existent, should be drafted and enacted immediately). This will help ensure that potential climate change impacts will be integrated into broader national development (including infrastructure) planning. Adaptations by other sectors will have impacts on fisheries, in particular inland fisheries and aquaculture (e.g. irrigation infrastructure, dams, fertilizer use runoff), and will require carefully considered trade-offs or compromises. Interactions between food production systems could compound the effects of climate change on fisheries production systems but also offer opportunities. Aquaculture based livelihoods could for example be promoted in the case of salination of deltaic areas leading to loss of agricultural land. Options for enabling change The workshop considered policy options and activities at the international, regional and national levels that can help to minimize negative impacts of climate change, improve on mitigation and prevention, and maintain and build adaptive capacity to climate change. These were as follows: