Climate Change Impacts and Solutions for Pennsylvania How Today’s Actions Shape the State’s Future F rom colonial times to the founding of the United These scenarios represent markedly different emissions choices States and its growth into a global power, Pennsyl- that people may make. vania’s people and resources have played a leading The stakes for Pennsylvania’s quality of life, and its very role in shaping the destiny of our country. Endowed character, are great. If we follow the higher-emissions pathway, with bountiful forests, fertile soils, extensive coal during the lifetime of today’s kindergartener: seams, and navigable rivers, the state created a thriving indus- • Many Pennsylvanian cities can expect dramatic increases trial economy that helped spur the prosperity of a young nation. in the number of summer days over 90°F, putting vulner- For much of the past century, Pennsylvania has worked success- able populations at greater risk of heat-related health effects fully to diversify its economy as the Rust Belt industries of and curtailing outdoor activity for many individuals. coal, steel, and manufacturing waned; today the state economy • Heat could cause air quality to deteriorate substantially, exacer- owes at least as much to its service industries and modern man- bating allergies, asthma, and other respiratory diseases. ufacturing sectors. Many of its cities, towns, and rural regions, however, have not fully recovered from the decline of these traditional industries. Climate change will only add to the figure 1: Temperature to rise across the State state’s economic challenges while also dramatically altering many aspects of its economy, character, and quality of life. 1961–1990 Global warming is already making a mark on the landscape, livelihoods, and traditions of Pennsylvania, and over the com- ing decades the impacts are expected to grow more substantial across the state. They may include longer and more intense summer heat waves, reduced winter snowpack, northward shifts in the ranges of valued plant and animal species, and declining yields of key agricultural crops. Some further global warming is unavoidable because 2070–2099 emissions of heat-trapping gases such as carbon dioxide (CO ) 2 can persist in the atmosphere for decades or centuries. CO 2 acts like a blanket, trapping heat and keeping the earth warm. But the magnitude of warming that occurs later this century depends largely on energy and land-use choices made within the next few years in the state, the nation, and the world. Be- cause humans are largely responsible for current global warm- ing, changing our actions can limit the severity and extent of impacts and thus the degree to which we will need to adapt. Many striking differences in the scale of climate change im- 0 20 40 60 80 100 pacts can be expected, depending on whether the world follows Number of Days per Year over 90°F a higher- or lower-emissions pathway. The first (the higher- Statewide, Pennsylvania is projected to experience dramatic emissions scenario) is a future in which societies—individuals, increases in the number of extremely hot days over the coming communities, businesses, states, and nations—allow emissions century, especially under the higher-emissions scenario. The to continue growing rapidly; the second (the lower-emissions greatest warming will be in the southwest and southeast scenario) is one in which societies choose to rely less on fossil regions, where daytime temperatures by late century (2070– fuels and instead adopt more resource-efficient technologies. 2099) could hover over 90°F for nearly the entire summer.  Union oF ConCeRned SCienTiSTS • Heat stress on dairy cattle may cause declines in milk below—the lower-emissions scenario described in this re- production. port, many of the consequences noted above may be avoided, • Yields of native Concord grapes, sweet corn, and favorite limited in scope, or postponed until late century, thereby giv- apple varieties may decrease considerably as temperatures rise ing society time to adapt. However, as many of the impacts and pest pressures grow more severe. are now unavoidable, some adaptation will be essential. • Snowmobiling conditions are expected to disappear from Pennsylvania has already shown its willingness to act. It the state as winter snow cover shrinks. has reduced heat-trapping emissions by driving investment in • Widespread ski resort closures can be expected, despite energy efficiency, renewable energy technology, and alternative increased snowmaking, as winters become too warm for transportation fuels; it has embraced wind power and other snow—natural or human-made. clean energy options (not only for energy generation but also • Climate conditions suitable for prized hardwood tree species for economic development); and it has moved to the forefront such as black cherry, sugar maple, and American beech are among “green power” purchasers. projected to decline or even vanish from the state. But there are many more measures—based on proven • Substantial changes in bird life are expected, including loss strategies and available policies—that the state and its local of preferred habitat for many resident and migratory species. governments, businesses, public institutions, and individual If Pennsylvania and the rest of the world take action households can apply to this challenge. They require only to dramatically reduce emissions consistent with—or even the will to do so. How Will Emissions Choices Affect Pennsylvania’s Future Climate? T he Appalachian Mountains sweep diagonally across Central Pennsylvania is a fertile landscape of valleys and ridges the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania from south- that experiences the state’s greatest extremes in temperature west to northeast, dividing it into distinct climatic and rainfall and its heaviest snowfall. Southeast Pennsylvania regions. To the northwest lies the Allegheny plateau, includes the Piedmont plateau and the coastal plain of the which endures more severe winters, greater amounts of snow- Delaware River, which enjoy a milder winter climate but endure fall, and more frequent rainfall than other parts of the state. longer and hotter summers than the rest of the state. The largest This precipitation feeds the headwaters of the Susquehanna, cities—Philadelphia and Pittsburgh—are situated in the state’s the Delaware, the Allegheny, and the Monongahela rivers. more moderate climate regions. Western Pennsylvania eastern Pennsylvania figure 2: Migrating Climates Changes in average summer “heat index”—a measure of how hot it actually feels with a given combination of temperature and 1961–1990 1961–1990 humidity—could strongly affect 2010–2039 2010–2039 quality of life for residents of 2010–2039 Pennsylvania in the future. Red 2010–2039 2040–2069 2040–2069 arrows track what summers could 2040–2069 feel like over the course of the 2070–2099 2040–2069 2070–2099 century in western and eastern Pennsylvania under the higher- emissions scenario. Yellow arrows 2070–2099 track what the summers could feel like under the lower- 2070–2099 Higher-Emissions Scenario Higher-Emissions Scenario emissions scenario. Lower-Emissions Scenario Lower-Emissions Scenario ClimATe CHAnge SolUTionS FoR PennSYlvAniA  Pennsylvania’s climate has already begun changing in notice- figure 3: The Changing face of Winter able ways. Over the past 100 years, annual average temperatures 1961–1990 have increased by around 0.5°F and annual average rainfall has been steadily increasing in all regions but the central southern. Winters have warmed the most, and in many Pennsylvania cities the number of extremely hot (over 90°F) summer days has increased since the 1970s. Decreasing snow cover—a statewide trend—has accelerated its decline in the past few decades. Each of these changes is consistent with the effects expected from human-caused climate change. As the state continues to warm, even more extensive climate-related changes are projected, with the potential Historic Area (1961–1990) No Data 2010–2039 (Lower emissions) to transform aspects of Pennsylvania as we know it. over the next several decades (2010–2039), compared with the historic period (1961–1990), the following changes can be expected under either emissions scenario: • Annual average temperatures across Pennsylvania are projected to increase by 2.5°F. • Much of the state can expect substantially more days over 90°F—in most cases, at least a doubling. • The area of the state that typically experiences 30 days Historic Area (1961–1990) or more of snow in winter is projected to shrink by No Data 2040–2069 (Lower emissions) roughly half. • Precipitation is expected to increase statewide by more than 5 percent above the historical average. By late century (2080–2099), if heat-trapping emissions remain high: • Winter temperatures are projected to rise 8°F above historic levels and summer temperatures are projected to rise 11°F. • Most of the southern half of the state is projected to endure more than 70 days a year with temperatures higher than 90°F. Snow Cover (1 Inch for 30 Days) No Data • The characteristic snow season of Pennsylvania is projected to disappear. A traditional Pennsylvania winter may become increasingly rare as • Precipitation is expected to increase by more than 10 percent the state’s climate changes in the next several decades. White areas statewide. on the map are those that have at least a dusting (one inch or Under a lower-emissions future, the changes are projected to more) of snow cover for 30 days in the average year. Historically, be about half as great as those listed above. three-quarters of Pennsylvania experienced this type of snow season. Most of the changes in climate over the next several decades Under either emissions scenario, the area with such snow cover shrinks by roughly half in the next several decades and by three- are unlikely to be significantly curbed by any reductions in emis- quarters by mid-century, and there is essentially no snow cover sions of heat-trapping gases undertaken in Pennsylvania and by late this century. But while climate models suggest that the the rest of the world during that period. These near-term changes loss of winter snow in Pennsylvania will be difficult to avoid, the have already been set in motion by emissions over the past few avoidance of other dangerous impacts is well within reach. decades. Two factors explain the delayed response of the climate: Note that “lake-effect” snow in northwest Pennsylvania near Lake Erie was not modeled many heat-trapping gases remain in the atmosphere for tens or in these projections; areas without data are shown as gray on the map. even hundreds of years, and the ocean warms more slowly than the air in response to higher concentrations of such gases. Thus the next several decades. While such actions in Pennsylvania policy makers and communities across Pennsylvania must begin alone will not stabilize the climate, the state can nevertheless adapting to the unavoidable consequences of this warming. play a significant role in responding to this global challenge. Toward mid-century (2040–2069) and beyond, however, Pennsylvania contributes 1 percent of total global emissions of the extent of further warming will be determined by actions carbon dioxide, and of all U.S. states it is the third-highest in taken to reduce emissions—starting now and continuing over emissions from fossil-fuel sources, behind Texas and California.  Union oF ConCeRned SCienTiSTS What Might the Projected Climate Change Mean for Pennsylvania? CiTieS And ToWnS already under strain, cities and towns face a serious threat from G lobal warming is expected to increase the risks of climate change. Today’s emissions choices will help determine many types of climate-related illnesses and even the severity of these risks and also how tolerable the future death, especially in Pennsylvania’s urban areas. In climate conditions in Pennsylvania’s cities will be. Philadelphia and other cities and towns through- • Cities such as Allentown, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and State out the state, extreme heat and air pollution events already College have historically averaged fewer than 10 days a year generate headlines each summer and raise public concern. With over 90°F. By mid-century under a higher-emissions future, aging infrastructure, aging populations, and health care systems they may endure more than 40 days over 90°F; by late figure 4: extreme Heat in Our Cities 90 80 Erie 70 90 Days per Year over 90˚F6543210000000 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Days per Year over 90˚F9876543200000000 State College Days per Year over 90˚F87654321000000000 1961–19S90cr2a0n10t–2o03n9 2040–2069 2070–2099 erie 10 90 0 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 80 Allentown 70 Scranton Days per Year over 90˚F6543200000 10 State College 0 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Pittsburgh Allentown Harrisburg 90 Philadelphia 80 Pittsburgh 70 Days per Year over 90˚F6543210000000 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Days per Year over 90˚F9876543200000000 Harrisburg Days per Year over 90˚F987654321000000000 Philadelphia 10 0 Lower Emissions Higher Emissions 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 0 Higher Emissions 1961–1990 2010–2039 2040–2069 2070–2099 Cities such as Allentown, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and State College have historically averaged fewer than 10 days a year over 90°F. By mid-century under a higher-emissions future, these cities may endure more than 40 days over 90°F. By late century this number could rise to 65 days or more, though it would roughly be halved under a lower-emissions future. The most dramatic warming would be in cities in the southwestern and southeastern parts of the state, where daytime temperatures by late century could exceed 90°F for nearly the entire summer. ClimATe CHAnge SolUTionS FoR PennSYlvAniA  century this number could rise to more than 65 days. These projections would roughly be halved, however, under a lower- emissions future. • By late century under a higher-emissions future, Allentown, Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Scranton, and State College could each experience some 24 or more days over 100°F during the summer, compared with the one or two such days they typically experience at present. Under a lower-emissions future, the number of days per year over 100°F would average seven or fewer. • In the Philadelphia metropolitan area, the number of days failing to meet the federal ozone standard is expected to at least quadruple under the higher-emissions scenario if local vehicular and industrial emissions of ozone-forming pollutants are not reduced. • As both temperatures and CO levels rise, increases can be 2 expected across Pennsylvania not only in the production of pollen grains but potentially in the allergenic potency of dairy cows are being sprayed to help keep them cool. Under those grains. the higher-emissions scenario, dairy farmers face substantial Climate change will also help determine the future infra- reductions in milk production later this century as very hot days structure and resource management challenges that Pennsylva- become more commonplace. Adaptation options include the nia cities will face. For instance: installation of cooling systems in dairy facilities. • Increased rainfall amounts could drive greater failure of combined sewer systems unless costly system overhauls are Other global warming impacts, however, may outweigh undertaken. such benefits. As temperatures increase, the state’s prized sweet- • Accelerated sea-level rise could worsen Philadelphia’s water- corn crop may face reduced yields because of summer heat supply challenges by increasing salinity in the Delaware stress and increased pest and disease outbreaks. Hotter sum- River/Estuary system. mers without an increase in summer rainfall could require The costs of adapting to such changes could be enormous, that traditionally rain-fed crops be irrigated. High-value fruit particularly for cash-strapped communities. crops may no longer experience the winter chilling conditions required for optimal fruit production and may also face AgRiCUlTURe increased pressures from insect pests. From the stone barns of Lancaster County to the vineyards that rim Lake Erie’s shore, agriculture remains a scenic center- Under the higher-emissions scenario, by mid-century: piece of Pennsylvania’s identity. Pennsylvania retains one of the • Without new investments in methods to cool dairy cows, largest rural populations in the United States. Some 59,000 increasing summer heat stress is projected to depress milk farms, many of them small and family-run, nestle among the production in Pennsylvania by at least 10 percent. state’s hills, forests, and burgeoning suburbs, maintaining an • The Concord Grape Belt may achieve adequately cold agricultural tradition that in many areas goes back 200 winter temperatures in just one out of two winters, poten- years or more. tially causing large reductions in grape harvests. Dairying is the top agricultural industry in the state, • The chilling requirement for certain apple varieties may be with a 2002 commodity value of $1.4 billion. Major cash met in just 50 to 60 percent of winters in the southeastern crops include corn, vegetables, mushrooms, and fruits (includ- part of the state, including Adams County (the state’s major ing grapes and apples). Continuing changes in temperature, apple-producing area). rainfall, and atmospheric levels of CO2 will affect—both • Most of Pennsylvania’s cornfields could experience consis- positively and negatively—Pennsylvania’s crops and livestock tent pressure from flea beetle/Stewart’s wilt outbreaks. as well as the pests, pathogens, and weeds that threaten them. Although farmers have often proven adaptable to changing The Intergovernmental Panel on Climcate Change’s most weather patterns and market demands, they face greater uncer- recent assessment, for example, projects that “moderate climate tainty, risk, and expense as the pace and scope of climate change change” will likely increase yields of crops such as corn and increase. The economic pressures will be felt both by large oper- soybeans by 5 to 20 percent over the next few decades, thanks ations and small family farms, potentially threatening traditional to warmer temperatures, a longer growing season, and the livelihoods and unique lifestyles such as those of the Amish. “fertilizer effect” of higher levels of CO . 2 CoNTiNuEd oN PAgE 8  Union oF ConCeRned SCienTiSTS global Warming impacts and Solutions in the Keystone State imPACTS. Continuing changes in temperature, rainfall, snow cover, and • erie other climate variables will affect the state, from its farmland to its cities. Temperatures exceeding 90°F are projected to become common by mid-century, increasing human health risks such as heat stress, heat exhaus- tion, and life-threatening heatstroke. Such risks disproportionately affect those who are poor, elderly, very young, suffering from chronic diseases, or otherwise unable to escape the heat. global warming could increase the levels of airborne pollen and lung-damaging air pollution. Poor air quality increases the risk of respiratory illnesses such as asthma, chronic bronchitis, and emphysema. Higher tempera- State College • tures can prolong the pollen-allergy season while elevated Co levels accelerate the 2 productivity of key pollen-allergen sources. Pennsylvania is the country’s fourth- • Pittsburgh largest producer of apples, grown mostly in the southeastern part of the state. By mid-century under the higher- emissions scenario, only half the winters in the southern part of the state would meet the cold-temperature requirements of popular varieties of apples, including Mcintosh and granny Smith. Pennsylvania’s Concord grape industry, located near Lake Erie, is a major source for the nation’s grape juice makers. This native grape requires cold winter temperatures for optimal flowering and fruit production. under the higher- dairy farming is the most eco- Warming climate and shifting distribu- emissions scenario, warmer temperatures nomically important agricultural tions and quality of forest habitat is could pose a substantial challenge to industry in Pennsylvania. under the expected to cause substantial changes Concord grape growers by mid-century. higher-emissions scenario, dairy farmers face in bird life. As many as half of the 120 bird spe- substantial challenges later this century as cies modeled in Pennsylvania could see at least Currently, summers in Pennsylvania hot temperatures and heat stress depress milk 25-percent reductions in their suitable habitat. are ideal for growing sweet corn. production. Species at greatest risk include the ruffed grouse, under the higher-emissions scen- white-throated sparrow, magnolia warbler, and ario, many July and August days are projected Suitable forest habitat for maple, yellow-rumped warbler. by mid-century to be substantially hotter black cherry, hemlock, and others is than today, thereby reducing the crop’s As global warming drives up air expected to shift northward by as yield and quality. temperatures and changes precipita- much as 500 miles by late century under the tion patterns, altered seasonal stream higher-emissions scenario. This will threaten flows, higher water temperatures, and diminished tourism as well as lucrative timber such as shade along stream banks may follow. The native world-renowned black cherry. brook trout and smallmouth bass are particularly sensitive to such changes. ClimATe CHAnge SolUTionS FoR PennSYlvAniA  The choices we make today will determine the climate that our Solar energy could help to meet electricity demand during heavy- children and grandchildren inherit. This report portrays two use periods and is readily available possible futures: a higher-emissions scenario, characterized by for deployment in homes and businesses. Pennsylvania has more than five times the continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels; and a lower-emissions solar energy potential of neighboring New Jersey, yet only 1/40th as much installed scenario, marked by a pronounced shift away from fossil fuels solar-electric capacity. toward greater reliance on clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency in homes and businesses—both new and old —has large potential to reduce emissions as well as energy costs. Pittsburgh is already a national leader in green-building technology, and many of the state’s academic institutions are going green. Reducing emissions from cars and trucks, which account for 25 percent of the Keystone State’s total emis- • Scranton sions, requires: (1) better fuel economy; (2) burning fuel with lower carbon content; and (3) reducing vehicle miles traveled through smarter development policies and improved public transportation. Existing coal-fired power stations may substantially reduce their heat- trapping emissions by replacing some of the coal with biomass such as wood chips or other wood waste. Trees and plants absorb carbon as they grow, and during Allentown • burning they emit the same amount they absorbed during their lifetimes. Carbon capture and storage, a potential technique for capturing • Harrisburg emissions from coal-fired power plants and storing them underground, has not yet been proven viable. There may be promising sites in many parts of the state, • however, for pilot projects. Philadelphia A rapid transition to a clean energy economy will not happen without strong policies implemented at the municipal, state, and federal levels. For example, setting a price on carbon to help drive the market for clean energy is critical. under either emissions scenario, SolUTionS. Pennsylvania generates A clean-energy economy will bring the snow season is expected to re- 1 percent of the world’s heat-trapping strong investments and good jobs treat to the state’s highland regions emissions. Significant reductions in the to the state. This is already being within just the next few decades. By late cen- state are essential to achieving deep seen in the establishment of wind and solar tury, snow cover could be lost entirely in most production plants, the growth in green- years. Both the ski and snowmobile industries reductions in CO levels nationally— 2 building trades, and the emergence of asso- would be hard hit—snowmobiling harder at 80 percent below 2000 levels by 2050, ciated maintenance and operations jobs first, because it relies heavily on natural snow as many scientists have called for. that cannot be done overseas. to cover the trails. Rising winter temperatures Pennsylvania can meet this challenge are expected to eventually render snow- by reducing emissions in many areas. making infeasible. Many of these symbols courtesy of the integration and Pennsylvania has abundant wind Application Network (ian.umces.edu/symbols/), university resources. Some large-scale wind of Maryland Center for Environmental Science. installations are in place around the state, especially in the northeast and southwest, but this renewable resource remains largely untapped.  Union oF ConCeRned SCienTiSTS Under the higher-emissions scenario, by late this century: • Hemlock (the state tree) is projected to lose two-thirds of its current suitable habitat. Under the lower-emissions scenario it could lose less than half. • Suitable habitat for the black cherry tree is expected to disappear from the state altogether. Possibly the most economically important tree species at risk, black cherry, currently supports a thriving timber and veneer industry. • Suitable habitat for signature species such as sugar maple and American beech—both of which provide brilliant fall foliage—is projected to decrease. • As many as half of the 120 bird species examined in Pennsylvania could see at least 25-percent reductions in their suitable habitat because of changes in climate and vegetation. Because long-lived trees may persist for many decades in declining conditions, it remains highly uncertain what Penn- sylvania’s forests will look like by late century. Some degree Pennsylvania’s silviculture (tree-growing) industry may face major risks and long-term management challenges, particularly under the higher-emissions scenario, as it attempts to adapt to the eventual decline of habitat for economically important trees such as black cherry. Park and wildlife managers could also face changes in recreational opportunities and the loss of critical wildlife habitats. FoReSTS Pennsylvania acquired its name—Latin for “Penn’s woods”— in the seventeenth century from its seemingly endless expanse of ancient beech, hemlock, oak, and maple forests. Timber harvesting had reduced forest coverage to its lowest point— 30 percent of the landscape—by the early 1900s, but Pennsyl- vania’s forests have been expanding ever since; currently, nearly 60 percent of the state is forested. These forests make Pennsylva- nia today’s number-one producer of hardwoods nationally, support 90,000 jobs in more than 3,000 businesses from sawmills to cabinet-making shops, and supply residents and tourists alike with myriad opportunities for hiking, fishing, birding, biking, hunting, and other outdoor pursuits. Pennsylvania’s varied terrain and its position at a latitude where northern and southern species mingle allow it to support more than 100 native tree species. Most prevalent among them are the hardwoods such as sugar maple, red maple, black cherry, and red oak—which supply 90 percent of the state’s sawtim- ber—and softwoods such as eastern hemlock, white pine, and red pine. These forests have remained vital to the state’s econ- omy and identity over the past several centuries. But the char- acter of Pennsylvania’s forests and their contribution to its economy are poised to undergo major changes this century, depending on our emissions choices. Climate plays a major role in determining suitable habitat Skiing and snowboarding are better positioned than snowmobil- for trees, as well as for other plants and wildlife. But as the ing to adapt because resorts do not have to rely solely on natural climate warms, the areas that best meet each species’ require- snow. However, by mid-century warming temperatures could ments will shift northward by as much as hundreds of miles. render snowmaking infeasible during much of the winter. ClimATe CHAnge SolUTionS FoR PennSYlvAniA  of change in the landscape, however, is certain, with quite in the next several decades, under either emissions scenario: substantial change expected in a higher-emissions future. • The north-central region, which currently averages 18 days each winter with snowmobiling conditions (at least six WinTeR ReCReATion inches of snow on the ground) could be reduced to a season Millions of residents and tourists alike head for the woods and of nine days on average. hills of Pennsylvania each winter, lured by more than 30 ski • Only western Pennsylvania ski areas may remain viable, and areas and 3,000-plus miles of public snowmobile trails. Winter even they may be economically vulnerable. recreation in the Commonwealth, from sledding in the city parks of Pittsburgh to riding horse-drawn sleighs through the By mid-century under either emissions scenario: frosty woods of the Poconos, traditionally revolves around • Snowmobiling conditions are projected to diminish snow. However, the face of winter in Pennsylvania is expected markedly, causing the snowmobile industry—which pumps to change rapidly and profoundly this century as winter an estimated $160 million into the Pennsylvania economy temperatures continue to rise. each winter—to all but disappear. Climate change is projected (both under lower- and higher- • As temperatures warm and snowmaking becomes increas- emissions scenarios) to cause a dramatic decline in the average ingly difficult, Pennsylvania is no longer expected to support number of snow-covered winter days across the state. Under viable ski operations. either emissions scenario, the snow season is expected to retreat The heavy costs to winter recreation industries could to the highland regions within just the next few decades. By reverberate throughout the state’s economic sectors, particu- late century it could be lost entirely in most years under the larly tourism. Loss of other treasured winter pastimes, from higher-emissions scenario. If lower emissions prevail, small, snowshoeing and cross-country skiing to tubing and sledding, high-elevation areas of the state may preserve a modest snow may have less impact on the economy than on the state’s season throughout this century, but projections show a quality of life during its wet but increasingly snowless winters. similarly rapid decline elsewhere. How Can Pennsylvania Meet the Challenges of a Changing Climate? F rom the Declaration of Independence to the steel 1 percent of global emissions—half as much as the United used for the country’s first railroads, Pennsylvania— Kingdom, which has five times the population. If the United the Keystone State—has a long history of laying our States and the world are to achieve the scale of emissions reduc- nation’s foundations. By reducing heat-trapping tions needed, the state should figure prominently in a transi- emissions today, Pennsylvanians have a new historic opportu- tion to a clean energy future—vigorously improving efficiency nity: to set a national example of helping to protect our chil- in buildings and industry to reduce energy demand while dren and grandchildren from the most severe consequences of aggressively promoting a shift away from carbon-intensive coal climate change. At the same time, effective adaptation strate- toward an increasingly clean mix of low-carbon and renewable gies are needed to help reduce the vulnerability of Pennsylvania’s energy options. As a leader in technology, industry, and policy residents, ecosystems, and economies to those changes that are innovation and as a major source of heat-trapping emissions, now unavoidable. Pennsylvania is well positioned to drive national action to Here in Pennsylvania, across the country, and around the reduce emissions. world, there is growing momentum to meet the climate chal- lenge. State legislation passed in 2008, for example, requires 1. emiSSionS RedUCTionS the appointment of a permanent climate change advisory The Commonwealth and its municipal governments, in part- committee, periodic assessment of climate impacts, an annual nership with other states, businesses, civic institutions, and the inventory of the state’s heat-trapping emissions, and the develop- public, have a rich array of strategies and policies at their dis- ment of a comprehensive climate change action plan. Concerted posal to meet the climate challenge. These strategies and policies and sustained state efforts to reduce emissions—on the order can reduce emissions in the following sectors: of 80 percent below 2000 levels by mid-century and just over 3 percent per year on average over the next several decades— Electric power. Because Pennsylvania has substantial coal could help pull global emissions below the lower-emissions resources, it is not surprising that over 40 percent of the state’s scenario described here. total CO emissions come from electricity generation, of which 2 Of course, the state’s actions alone will not be sufficient fully one-third is exported to other states on the East Coast. to avoid dangerous climate change, but Pennsylvania generates What probably is surprising is that Pennsylvania has some of 10 Union oF ConCeRned SCienTiSTS the most abundant, but largely untapped, renewable energy Another needed improvement to the state’s AEPS—which resources in the U.S. Northeast, including wind, solar, and could help support the development of CCS technology—is to forest and agricultural biomass. require that any nonrenewable resources used to meet the elec- Although the state enacted a requirement in 2004—called tricity standard be carbon-neutral via geologic sequestration or the Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS)—that local offset purchases by 2025. To assist in the near-term transition utilities obtain 8 percent of their electricity by 2020 from clean, away from coal-fired electricity, the state’s electricity generators renewable resources, this percentage is modest compared with could begin co-firing sustainable biomass (such as timber those of many other states and should be substantially increased. processing residues) with coal in existing power plants, thus Such an increase would be consistent with Pennsylvania’s reducing the carbon content of the fuel. recognition that clean energy development can bring jobs and capital investment to the state. In recent years, for example, at Buildings. Enactment during the 2008 legislative session of a least two renewable energy enterprises have located in the state: $650-million suite of grant and loan programs—to support the Spanish wind-energy company Gamesa established its U.S. energy efficiency upgrades and installation of renewable energy headquarters in Philadelphia, invested $84 million, sited two equipment on residential, commercial, institutional, and manufacturing facilities and another office in the state, and industrial buildings—was a very positive step. Implementation created nearly 1,000 jobs; the German company Flabeg chose efforts should draw on the experience of successful pioneering Allegheny County for its first U.S. solar-mirror production initiatives such as the West Penn Power Sustainable Energy facility, which is expected to create 300 manufacturing jobs. Fund and the Keystone Home Energy Loan Program, as well Another underused resource is energy efficiency. With caps as on the Pittsburgh area’s wealth of expertise in green building on electric rates established during utility deregulation sched- design, construction, technology, and related products. This uled to begin expiring in 2009, implementation of strong region of the state has embraced green building, both for its energy efficiency programs throughout the Commonwealth primary benefits and as an economic development strategy, could substantially dampen the impact on electric bills while through systematic collaboration between the local design, reducing emissions. construction, manufacturing, and higher-education sectors. Perhaps Pennsylvania’s toughest challenge is decreasing its Adopting a requirement that any building substantially dependence on coal for electric power. Coal is currently the funded by the state be built to high “performance” standards cheapest of the fossil fuels used to generate electricity, but it is would make Pennsylvania and its municipal governments also the most carbon-intensive. Assessments have shown that leaders by example. At the same time, financial support for Pennsylvania has large potential for geologic sequestration, additional education and training for architects, engineers, whereby CO emissions from power plants would be captured builders, and local code officials would help speed the prolifer- 2 and then stored permanently underground—an option called ation of these practices throughout the state. carbon capture and storage (CCS). More research and the development of pilot projects will be required to establish Transportation. To reduce emissions from cars and trucks— CCS’s technical and financial viability. To avoid undermining which account for 25 percent of Pennsylvania’s total carbon its own and neighboring states’ efforts to reduce emissions, the emissions—state efforts must simultaneously address three state should permit no new coal-fired plants to be built until critical components: vehicles’ fuel economy and emissions, the CCS is established. carbon content of fuels, and the amount of driving that Penn- figure 5: 2005 Pennsylvania emissions: Significant on a global Scale UNITED STATES When compared with entire nations, China Pennsylvania’s emissions are so high that Russia this single state ranks as the world’s twenty- Japan second largest emitter of Co. Pennsylvania’s India 2 Germany total emissions are higher than those of new U.S. NORTHEAST York State and Wyoming combined, while its Canada per capita emissions are more than double United Kingdom those of new York State. PENNSYLVANIA Note: u.S. emissions include those from the nine Northeast states, and Northeast emissions include those from Pennsylvania. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Source: Energy information Administration. 2005. Annual Emissions in 2005 (Gigatons of Carbon Dioxide) International energy annual 2005.