Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports As key links in transportation and supply chains, the effect of climate change on seaports has broad implications for the development prospects of the global economy. However, the picture is very uncertain because t he impacts of climate change will be felt very differently around the world, both positively and negatively. This book addresses the need for quality theoretical analysis, highly innovative assessment methodologies and insightful empirical global experiences so as to identify the best international practices, planning and appropriate policies to effectively adapt to, develop resilience to and, indeed, benefi t from the impacts posed by climate change on transportation and supply chains. With contributions from reputable scholars, inter-governmental organizations and senior professionals in transportation and supply chains coming from fi ve continents, this book investigates climate change, adaptation strategies and planning of transportation and supply chains from different angles. It encourages innovative and effective solutions in developing adaptation measures and resilience by ports, transportation and supply chains to climate change. This book will be essential for anyone interested in understanding climate change and its impacts on transportation and supply chain infrastructures, as well as the effective ways to adapt to such impacts. Adolf K. Y. Ng is Professor of Transportation and Supply Chain Management at the Asper School of Business of the University of Manitoba, Canada. Austin Becker is Assistant Professor of Coastal Planning, Policy and Design at the University of Rhode Island (URI), USA. Stephen Cahoon is the Director of the Sense-T NICTA Logistics Lab at the University of Tasmania, Australia. Shu-Ling Chen is Senior Lecturer at the Australian Maritime College of the University of Tasmania, Australia. Paul Earl is Senior Scholar at the Asper School of Business of the University of Manitoba, Canada. Zaili Yang is Professor of Maritime Transport at Liverpool John Moores University, UK. Routledge Studies in Transport Analysis Maritime Logistics Value in Knowledge Management Eon-Seong Lee and Dong-Wook Song The Management of Maritime Regulations Hristos Karahalios Public Private Partnerships in Transport: Trends and Theory Edited by Athena Roumboutsos Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports Edited by Adolf K. Y. Ng, Austin Becker, Stephen Cahoon, Shu-Ling Chen, Paul Earl and Zaili Yang Climate Change and Adaptation Planning for Ports Edited by Adolf K. Y. Ng, Austin Becker, Stephen Cahoon, Shu-Ling Chen, Paul Earl and Zaili Yang First published 2016 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN and by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2016 selection and editorial material, Adolf K. Y. Ng, Austin Becker, Stephen Cahoon, Shu-Ling Chen, Paul Earl and Zaili Yang; individual chapters, the contributors The right of the editors to be identifi ed as the author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered trademarks, and are used only for identifi cation and explanation without intent to infringe. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Catalog record for this book has been requested ISBN: 978-1-138-79790-1 (hbk) ISBN: 978-1-315-75681-3 (ebk) Typeset in Times New Roman by Saxon Graphics Ltd, Derby Contents List of fi gures ix List of tables xiii About the editors xv About the contributors xvii Foreword xxvii Preface xxix 1 Time to act: The criticality of ports in adapting to the impacts posed by climate change 1 ADOLF K. Y. NG, AUSTIN BECKER, STEPHEN CAHOON, SHU-LING CHEN, PAUL EARL AND ZAILI YANG 2 Port adaptation for climate change: The roles of stakeholders and the planning process 9 STEVEN MESSNER, AUSTIN BECKER AND ADOLF K. Y. NG 3 Analyzing risks posed by climate change on ports: A fuzzy approach 24 ZAILI YANG, STEPHEN CAHOON, SHU-LING CHEN, ADOLF K. Y. NG AND AUSTIN BECKER 4 Climate change and adaptation strategies of Canadian ports and shipping: The case of the St. Lawrence-Great Lakes system 45 BRIAN SLACK AND CLAUDE COMTOIS 5 Climate change and the adaptation planning of inland port and rail infrastructures in the province of Manitoba in Canada 59 TIANNI WANG, SPENCER SAMSOM, ADOLF K. Y. NG AND PAUL EARL vi Contents 6 The impacts of Hurricane Sandy on the Port of New York and New Jersey: Lessons learned for port recovery and resilience 74 TIFFANY C. SMYTHE 7 Climate adaptation of German North Sea ports: The example of Bremerhaven 89 WINFRIED OSTHORST 8 Port planning and climate change: Evidence from Italy 103 MARIA INÉS CUSANO, CLAUDIO FERRARI AND ALESSIO TEI 9 Adaptation to an increase in typhoon intensity and sea level rise by Japanese ports 117 MIGUEL ESTEBAN, HIROSHI TAKAGI AND TOMOYA SHIBAYAMA 10 Modeling and evaluation of green port development: A case study on Tianjin Port 133 DI ZHANG, CHENGPENG WAN AND ZAILI YANG 11 Terminal Maritimo Muelles El Bosque, Cartagena, Colombia 153 VLADIMIR STENEK, JEAN-CHRISTOPHE AMADO, RICHENDA CONNELL, OLIVIA PALIN, STEWART WRIGHT, BEN POPE, JOHN HUNTER, JAMES MCGREGOR, WILL MORGAN, BEN STALEY, RICHARD WASHINGTON, DIANA LIVERMAN, HOPE SHERWIN, PAUL KAPELUS, CARLOS ANDRADE AND JOSÉ DANIEL PABÓN 12 Climate change adaptation in the Panama Canal 172 MICHELE ACCIARO 13 The impact of climate change on Australian ports and supply chains: The emergence of adaptation strategies 194 STEPHEN CAHOON, SHU-LING CHEN, BENJAMIN BROOKS AND GREG SMITH 14 A decision support toolkit for climate resilient seaports in the Pacifi c region 215 DARRYN MCEVOY, JANE MULLETT, ALEXEI TRUNDLE, ANDREW HUNTING, DANIEL KONG AND SUJEEVA SETUNGE Contents vii 15 Canada’s Arctic shipping challenge: Towards a twenty- fi rst-century Northwest Passage 232 MICHAEL C. IRCHA AND JOHN HIGGINBOTHAM 16 Arctic transportation and new global supply chain organizations: The Northern Sea Route in international economic geography 246 JEROME VERNY 17 The state of climate adaptation for ports and the way forward 265 AUSTIN BECKER Index 275 This page intentionally left blank List of fi gures 2.1 GIS model – example 2050 scenario 12 2.2 PSD adaptation process stakeholders 14 2.3 SLR inundation risk rating 15 2.4 Major elements of the ‘change map’ for port’s adaptation planning 18 4.1 Average monthly water depths at Montreal, 2007–13 48 5.1 The potential impacts of climate change on the Province of Manitoba 64 6.1 Map of the Port of New York and New Jersey, featuring locations of Port Authority marine terminals 75 8.1 Sea-level rise 104 8.2 Actors a nd processes involved in mitigation and adaptation measures 108 8.3 The Italian port system 109 8.4 Barriers to the current development of adaptation measures 113 9.1 Main ports in the Tokyo area 118 9.2 Potential consequence of land subsidence on port areas 121 9.3 Tetrapod armour units at Ishihama port in Japan 123 9.4 Increase in armour size for Scenario 4 for a variety of signifi cant wave heights and water depths 125 9.5 Aerial photo showing location of breakwaters at Shibushi port in the southern part of Japan 126 9.6 Comparison of the expected sliding distances between present climate and future climate conditions 126 9.7 Expected annual port downtime at different ports in Japan at present and under two different climate-change scenarios by the year 2085 128 9.8 Increased estimated required additional real capital stock for all Japanese ports by the year 2085 129 10.1 Assessment model of green port development 137