CLAUS ADOLF MOSER Claus Adolf Moser 1922–2015 Early life Claus Moser was brought to england by his parents as a thirteen-year- old German boy. He was born on 24 November 1922 and died at the age of ninety-two as Baron Moser of Regent’s Park. His appropriate title changed during that interval, but to friends and acquaintances alike he was always known as ‘Claus’ and that is how he will be designated here. He was born in Berlin into a prosperous and cultured family. His parents were Ernst and Lotte Moser, who were both Jewish. Ernst was a success- ful banker; his mother was a talented pianist; he had an older brother, Heinz Peter. Even though Claus did not become a professional musician, he clearly inherited his skill as performer and his passion for classical music from his mother’s side of the family. Music was an integral part of his life and, as we shall see, found an outlet throughout his life. His parents foresaw that trouble was brewing for the Jews in Germany and in 1936 they removed the family to England, where they set up home in Putney, London. Claus was then thirteen years old and, having had the benefit of an English governess, the new language presented no particular problem as early extant letters show. He was sent to Frensham Heights School, a progressive independent co-educational boarding school, near Farnham, Surrey, which proved to be hospitable to refugees. This pro- vided an ideal place for Claus; it fostered his musical talent and provided a happy environment which he greatly enjoyed. At the appropriate time he sat the Oxford and Cambridge School certificate in which he obtained five Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the British Academy, XVI, 171–188. Posted 25 April 2017. © The British Academy 2017. 172 David Bartholomew credits and two passes. This was a good, though by no means outstanding, result but it was achieved after only two years in what was, after all, Claus’s second language and a foreign country. However, the School Certificate was particularly significant, in view of later developments, because it gained him exemption from the London Matriculation examination which was necessary in order to embark on a degree course of London University. In 1940 Claus was interned as an ‘enemy alien’ at Huyton, Liverpool. The only evidence we have for his subsequent interest in statistics is the experience he gained of social investigation by assisting a mathematician who wanted to keep records of the characteristics of the internees there. He was soon released, because of his age, in the autumn of 1940. With the support of his headmaster he applied for late entry to the London School of Economics (LSE) to study for the BCom degree. It is believed that his father favoured training for a career in the hotel business so we may sur- mise that a degree, ostensibly in commerce, might have seemed an accept- able alternative. Whatever the truth of that hypothesis, it is clear that, after some correspondence, he entered the LSE in November 1940. At that time the LSE had been evacuated to Cambridge and Claus was allo- cated lodgings at 5 Trumpington Street at a weekly charge of 35 shillings. Apart from his studies, on which he received excellent reports from his teachers, Claus was very active in the Students’ Union which, according to his tutor, did not significantly impinge on his academic work. This activity evidently included music, because it was the Union which recommended him for the Jessie Mair Prize awarded for his musical activities. Before long Claus took steps to transfer to the BSc (Econ) degree which ran in parallel with the BCom. For the transfer to be possible it was necessary to satisfy the first year BSc (Econ) requirements, and Claus was clear about how this could be done. The structure of both degrees was similar. There was a Part I examination in both taken at the end of the first year followed by a Part II extending over the following two years on which the class of honours was awarded. In order to satisfy the require- ments of the BSc (Econ) Part I, a course on the British Constitution was necessary, and Claus had thoughtfully anticipated this by attending the lectures for this course. By means of this and other measures, a successful transition was negotiated and for the next two years Claus became a candidate for the BSc (Econ) degree with special subject Statistics. The reason for choosing Statistics was presumably his experience of his afore- mentioned rudimentary social statistics gained during his internment, but it was certainly justified by his Part II results. He was also awarded a ‘post Inter’ Leverhulme scholarship which covered some of his fees. CLAUS ADOLF MOSER 173 In the Part II examination Claus obtained first-class honours and was awarded the Farr Medal and Prize for the best first. (During wartime it was said to be not possible to strike the medal because of restrictions on the use of silver, but Claus was assured that the award would be listed in the records. Later it emerged a medal could be struck after all.) Additionally he was awarded a Gerstenberg Studentship in Economics, but this was not taken up. This was 1943, and when he graduated there were very limited options available. One possibility was to volunteer for service in the armed forces and the other was to obtain a post as a statistician in work of national importance. He received rather conflicting advice on the latter option; it appeared that there was a shortage of mathematical statisticians but no shortage of economic statisticians—which is how Claus would have been classified. Carr-Saunders, the Director of the LSE, was strongly in favour of volunteering for active service not least because it might be counted in Claus’s favour when he applied for naturalisation after the war. In the event Claus ‘joined up’. He applied for aircrew duties, but was rejected on the grounds that if he was shot down over enemy territory his German origins might cause complications. Hence, he became a ground crew member in which category he served in a number of capacities such as interpreting and, latterly, helping to evaluate the results of Allied bomb- ing. He reached the rank of sergeant. On the last day of the war he was involved in a serious car accident close to the Belgian–German border which resulted in a prolonged hospital stay, initially nearby and subse- quently at the specialist and innovative plastic surgery unit set up by Sir Archibald McIndoe in East Grinstead, Sussex. The transition from a private school and university to the non- commissioned ranks of the RAF was a major step. It was one thing to flourish in an environment in which one excelled and was ‘deservedly popular’ among fellow students and quite another to rub shoulders with people whose background was very different. He quickly recognised the reason for this unease and, once he adjusted to the new situation, the initial difficulties were resolved. At the end of the war the need for his services ceased, but there were complications about the date of his demobilisation. This took place in batches, and Claus calculated that his release was going to be too late for the beginning of the academic year. This mattered because he had been offered a post at the LSE from the beginning of October. However, early release could be obtained if a good case could be made. This was achieved, and he started his academic career on the staff of his old department as 174 David Bartholomew an Assistant Lecturer in Statistics, as he had hoped. At one stage prior to this he had contemplated proceeding to take a PhD, but this possibility was quickly superseded by the opportunity to join the staff. Starting as an assistant lecturer, Claus moved through the grades at a steady pace, attaining a professorship in 1961. Progress was not automatic and the procedure varied somewhat over time as the relationship between London University and the Schools changed. The assistant lecturer grade was normally thought of as probationary and appointment to it was usually for three years, with a possibility of a fourth year in cases of doubt. Claus progressed to the grade of lecturer on 1 October 1949 after three years. For several years around this time he was involved with the International Statistical Institute, which he served as part-time Executive Officer of the International Statistical Education programme, being granted the necessary leave for the purpose by the LSE. Promotion to the higher grade of reader (or senior lecturer for that matter) was not automatic and could occur only when the lecturer’s per- formance justified it. In Claus’s case the University conferred the title of Reader in Social Statistics after only six years on 1 October 1955. The case was made by the School in glowing terms, with the letter of support saying that ‘he had done extremely well in his subject’. In 1957 he was invited to fill a temporary appointment (to work on a programme of family living studies) in the Statistics Division of the International Labour Office based in Geneva for a whole session (1957–8), and permission was granted. The final promotion to Professor of Social Statistics took effect from 1 October 1961. In this case promotion would have depended on the research record as well as on teaching and general ability. In view of what follows, this can be conveniently dealt with as a whole. The publication record falls in two parts. The first dates from first appointment until his move to the Robbins Committee (while a professor) and the second from that point until he moved to government service. The early part shows a steady record of publication, including one paper jointly with Alan Stuart, on reviews of empirical studies of sam- pling methods. This is what one might have expected from someone at the beginning of their academic career. In addition, and more importantly, there was the highly s uccessful book Survey Methods in Social Investigation, first published by Heinemann Educational Books. This first appeared in 1958 and was reprinted eight times until the second edition appeared in 1971. By this time Claus was Head of the Government Statistical Service (GSS) and he was helped in preparing the new edition by Graham Kalton, who remained as a joint author for at least seven further reprintings. CLAUS ADOLF MOSER 175 Kalton had been an undergraduate in the Statistics department, graduating in the year that the first edition was p ublished. He later moved to the University of Michigan and then to WESTAT in Maryland. This book was originally based on a course given at the LSE and is therefore better regarded as a record of teaching rather than of research. It is comprehen- sive, authoritative and beautifully clear, and well deserved its wide reader- ship and the ‘classic’ status it acquired. The principal changes in the second edition were the division of the original chapter on ‘Principles of Survey Design’ into two new chapters and a new chapter on ‘Experiments and Investigations’. The authors later discussed the possibility of a third edition, but this would have required a major revision that they were not in a position to undertake. It was undoubtedly the most successful of Claus’s publications in terms of sales, as he himself once remarked. Apparently Heinemann made no special provision for sales in America, otherwise the sales might have been even greater. The big step in Claus’s research career began with his appointment as statistical adviser by Lionel Robbins in connection with the work of the Robbins Committee set up in 1961. This event probably shaped the whole course of Claus’s later career. The government decided to conduct an enquiry into the future of higher education in the UK. It asked Lord Robbins, Professor of Economics at the LSE, to chair the committee, and henceforth it became known as the Robbins Committee. Lord Robbins was convinced that his report should be a means to an evidence-based policy and hence that it must depend on data, much of which did not then exist. Accordingly, he asked Moser to join the Committee as its statistical advisor. In the event Claus was much more than advisor and he became intimately involved with its work and took part, for example, in all of its overseas visits. In the report Claus’s key role is acknowledged as follows: ‘…and to our statistical adviser, Professor C. A. Moser, without whose dedicated labours it could not have been conceived, let alone brought to fruition’. The Committee was concerned with two major questions: (1) ‘How was the likely demand for higher education in the future to be met?’; and (2) ‘How could enough good quality teaching be provided and how should it be financed?’. In order to provide a base for its deliberations Claus decided to conduct three surveys. One was of students, another was of teaching staff and the third was of twenty-one-year-olds whether already in higher education or not. The results of this research were published in five appendix volumes to the main report and these have been widely con- sidered since as a model of relevant evidence, clearly presented. This work 176 David Bartholomew was the responsibility of Claus and proved to be the bedrock of his future as a renowned social s tatistician.1 When the committee finished its work in 1963, those who had worked with Claus on this project formed the nucleus of the Higher Education Research Unit which Claus set up at the LSE in 1964 under his director- ship, with Richard Layard as Deputy Director. Government service Around 1966 the Director of the Central Statistical Office (CSO), Sir Harry Campion, was due to retire and thought was being given to his replacement. Claus was seconded for three years by the LSE to the Civil Service, where his existing wide experience of public affairs made him an ideal choice. Claus’s move from the LSE to the Civil Service seemed nat- ural because his existing experience with the Robbins Committee had demonstrated his capabilities, in particular the fact that he had been the architect of the formidable body of empirical evidence which successfully overcame the entrenched opposition which existed, in many quarters, to the recommendation of the Robbins Committee that the university s ystem be expanded. This achievement would have made him particularly attrac- tive to a government sympathetic to that recommendation. He therefore succeeded Sir Harry Campion. When Claus moved to the Civil Service he actually had two distinct roles. He was head of the GSS, which was the professional grouping of government statisticians. He was also head of the CSO, which dealt prin- cipally with matters relating to the collection and publication of economic statistics. The CSO was under the wing of the Cabinet Office and, in that role, Claus reported to the Prime Minister. During some of his time in the post the Prime Minister was Harold Wilson who, as a fellow statistician, Claus felt to be generally supportive and understanding of the issues he was dealing with. Informally, Claus also saw himself as a general statis- tical advisor to the government. The most complete account of Claus’s time in, and views on, govern- ment service is expressed in his own words in his presidential address to 1 The full report is available online at <http://www.educationengland.org.uk/documents/robbins/ robbins1963.html> (accessed 31 January 2017); this does not include the appendices, some of which were published with the report and others as separate volumes by HMSO in 1963—Cmnd 2154. CLAUS ADOLF MOSER 177 the Royal Statistical Society. This address, entitled ‘Statistics and public policy’, was delivered on 7 November 1979 and published in the society’s Journal, Series A the following year.2 After briefly thanking those who elected him and m aking some reference to his earlier experiences, the bulk of the address is devoted to a wide-ranging account of the GSS. The timing of the address was ideal in that it was given shortly after he had moved to N. M. Rothschild and Sons but while the events of that time were still fresh in his memory. It is comprehensive in its coverage, lucid in its exposition and fully alive to both the successes and failures of his efforts. The overriding impression which one gains is of the enormous organ- isational feat of managing what came to be a very large professional organis ation (roughly 600 professional staff) and making it fit for the role which it was called upon to fulfil. This called for considerable talents of which only glimpses had been seen in his previous roles, though they must have been latent. Any final assessment of Claus’s contribution to govern- ment statistics must focus on his ability to see things in a broad context and on his ability to fashion and direct others to achieve long-term objectives. The titles of the main section headings of the address were ‘Integrity’, ‘Quality’, ‘Organisation’, ‘Priorities’ and ‘Relations with the Public’. Under each heading he gave a penetrating analysis of his successes and failures. There is one area where he faced a problem which continued to exercise him for many years afterwards. This concerned the relative merits of a centralised and decentralised service. The business of government is carried out by separate departments each under the direction of a minis- ter. At one extreme each department effectively could have its own statis- tical service answerable to its own head. At the other there would be a central statistical service, centrally managed. In practice many comprom- ises are possible. In the United Kingdom there is, and was, a hybrid system but with the balance much in favour of a decentralised version. In a centralised system all statisticians are centrally recruited and managed, and this is certainly more convenient from the point of view of the head of the service. A decentralised service makes for a much closer link between statisticians and the departmental staff who are r esponsible for delivering government policies. Within the service he was recognised as a good and considerate manager of staff. Claus was convinced that statisticians in the government should not simply be ‘backroom boys’ but needed to be outgoing and 2 C. A. Moser, ‘Statistics and public policy’, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A (General), 143 (1980), 1–32. 178 David Bartholomew more ‘extrovert’. They were to be participants rather than spectators in policy making. Accordingly, when invitations to speak were offered he despatched some of his senior staff to universities in an attempt to get that message across to potential recruits to the GSS. This was sometimes done through talks to those about to graduate (in the guise of seminars), which provided a ready-made vehicle. Part of his role was to implement the proposals made by the House of Commons Estimates Committee, which involved the creation of the Business Statistics Office and of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS). The latter combined the Government Social Survey with the Registrar General’s responsibility for large-scale censuses. One of Claus’s innovations was the introduction of the publication Social Trends. This first appeared in 1970, edited by his colleague Muriel Nissel at the CSO, and it has since been emulated elsewhere. This publica- tion provides an annual picture, through tables and diagrams, of the state of society which complements that given by the older and more familiar economic series. Given the musical accomplishments of both the then Prime Minister (Edward Heath) and Claus, it was particularly appropriate that the publication should have been launched with a performance by the Amadeus String Quartet, whose second violin player was Siegmund Nissel, husband of Muriel. The integrity of government figures is vital for the credibility of the whole enterprise. This requires that there should be no manipulation, however subtle, by those for whom the figures are produced. This has required, for example, that there shall be generally accepted fixed publica- tion dates for all series. There were a number of occasions when the integ- rity of the service was threatened by the attempt to gain short-term advantage on the part of the government. On one oft-quoted occasion, Claus stood firm when it was suggested that the cost of some jumbo jets should be spread over several months rather than be recorded in the month in which purchase actually occurred. The effect of making the change would have had a beneficial effect on the Balance of Payments figures and might have affected the outcome of the imminent general elec- tion. It would be going too far to claim that Claus was alone in taking a stand against this but there is no doubting his resolve. He considered it essential that government statistics be above such things. That it was, and still is, reflects the leadership that Claus provided, and on more than one occasion such things became matters of resignation. Earlier on, towards the end of his secondment, there was great g overnment satisfaction with the progress that Claus had made in reorganising and CLAUS ADOLF MOSER 179 driving forward the work of government statistics, but it was clear that a longer period was needed to bring this promising start to fruition. The LSE was therefore approached and asked to consider whether the secondment might be extended for a further two-and-a-half years. There followed extensive discussions between the parties culminating in a meeting between the Prime Minister (Harold Wilson) and the Director of the LSE (Sir Walter Adams) at 10 Downing Street. The upshot of all this was that the LSE felt that it could not extend the period of leave, but it came up with a counter-proposal that Claus should resign from his Chair and that he would be appointed as a Visiting Professor at the School. Claus, himself, was torn in two directions, on the one hand by his loyalty to, and affection for, the School and on the other by his desire to continue with his work at the CSO. The proposal was finally agreed; Claus resigned his chair, became a full-time civil servant and a Visiting Professor at the LSE. The latter appointment was under the usual terms and conditions, but there was no fixed emolument and it ultimately came to an end in 1975. This appointment provided the opportunity for him to remain associated, in particular with the Higher Education Research Unit, but involved no fixed duties. The School made a further attempt to bring Moser back when in 1971 it indicated that, under new University regulations, it was prepared to create a new Chair of Statistics specifically for Claus, beginning in the session 1972–3, but although this was attractive he declined on the grounds that there was much else that he wished to do in the Civil Service. Rothschilds In 1978 Claus left government service and joined Rothschild Bank, where he was Vice-Chairman from 1978 to 1984. When it was known that Claus was moving to the world of banking, one of his senior colleagues in the GSS wryly remarked that a suitable leaving present might be a book with some such title as Teach Yourself Banking. Claus, of course, brought his detailed first-hand knowledge of the workings of government as a consid- erable dowry to his new employer. The wisdom of Rothschild’s decision to recruit Claus was evident in the part which he took in the bank’s desire to be appointed as investment consultants to the government of Singapore. This was a tricky negotiation as three other financial institutions were believed to be competing for the consultancy. The instability of sterling around this time, among other things, had caused the government of