CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page i Chinese Space Policy For several decades now, China has been accelerating its pursuit of greater international prestige and influence. One increasingly prominent facet of that pursuit is the development of an independent space program. This book explains how China is now able to hold such ambitions and analyses how the interaction between technology, politics and economics has influenced the Chinese space program. The book opens by tracing out the earlier devel- opment of the space program and identifying the successes and problems that plagued this initial effort. It then focuses upon its development over the past decade and into the future. As China is now able to reach into outer space with its technology and, since 2003, with its humans, the authors ana- lyze how this move from a non-participant status to a state operating at the highest level of space activities has confirmed its potential place as the new economic and military superpower of the twenty-first century. This volume also demonstrates how recent successes mean that China is now confronted by the one issue previously encountered by other space “powers,” such as the United States and the former Soviet Union: what is the value of the space program, given its high costs and likelihood of dramatic failure? This book will be of great interest to students of space studies, Chinese politics, security studies, and international relations in general. Roger Handberg is Professor of Political Science and Department Chair at the University of Central Florida. His most recent books include Inter- national Space Commerce (2006), Reinventing NASA (2003), and Seeking New World Vistas: The Militarization of Outer Space (2000). Zhen Li is a PhD student in the Department of Political Science at the University of California at Davis. CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page ii Series: Space Power and Politics Series Editors: Everett C. Dolman and John Sheldon, both School of Advanced Air and Space Studies, USAF Air, Maxwell, USA The Space Power and Politics series will provide a forum where space pol- icy and historical issues can be explored and examined in-depth. The series will produce works that examine civil, commercial, and military uses of space and their implications for international politics, strategy, and polit- ical economy. This will include works on government and private space programs, technological developments, conflict and cooperation, security issues, and history. Space Warfare: Strategy, Principles and Policy John J. Klein US Hypersonic Research & Development: The Rise and Fall of Dyna-Soar, 1944–1963 Roy F. Houchin II Chinese Space Policy: A Study in Domestic and International Politics Roger Handberg and Zhen Li CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page iii Chinese Space Policy A Study in Domestic and International Politics Roger Handberg and Zhen Li CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page iv First published 2007 by Routledge 2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business This edition published in the Taylor & Francis e-Library, 2009. To purchase your own copy of this or any of Taylor & Francis or Routledge’s collection of thousands of eBooks please go to www.eBookstore.tandf.co.uk. © 2007 Roger Handberg and Zhen Li All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Handberg, Roger. Chinese space policy : a study in domestic and international politics / Roger Handberg and Zhen Li. p. cm. – (Space power and politics) Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-415-36582-1 (hardback) 1. Astronautics – Government policy – China. 2. Astronautics – Political aspects. 3. China – Foreign relations – 1976– I. Li, Zhen, 1973– II. Title. TL789.8.C55H34 2007 629.40951–dc22 2006020397 ISBN 0-203-01834-6 Master e-book ISBN ISBN10 0-415-36582-1 (hbk) ISBN10 0-203-01834-6 (ebk) ISBN13 978-0-415-36582-6 (hbk) ISBN13 978-0-203-01834-7 (ebk) CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page v Contents Preface vi 1 Overcoming the past, seizing the future 1 2 China as space follower and leader 34 3 First awakenings 57 4 Accelerating the rise of China’s space program 84 5 The politics of Chinese human spaceflight 127 6 Assessing China’s future in space 151 Appendix A: Chinese launch vehicles 174 Appendix B: Chinese strategic missiles 176 Notes 177 Selected references 191 Index 197 CSPA01 25/10/06 4:50 PM Page vi Preface The Chinese space program remains literally a work in progress – changes and advancements come with great rapidity. The long awaited take-off stage has been achieved where China can build on its human and technological capital – both were accumulated at great cost especially for an economic- ally developing state. As will be seen, success was neither immediate nor continuous; their program was not the march of inevitable progress. Setbacks occurred, usually as the result of political interventions into the space program, but especially in the early years as new technologies failed as the Chinese pushed beyond their capabilities. Now, their capabilities have moved into line with their aspirations. China is climbing two stairways to the heavens. First, and most obvious, China has reached outer space with its machines and now humans. China’s anticipated goals in the near future now include taikonauts reaching the lunar surface, a feat only accomplished once before in the late 1960s and early 1970s. The second stairway is China’s moving up the hierarchy of space-participating states. China has moved from a non-participant status to a state operating at the highest level of space activities, human space- flight. Its journey up has increased Chinese prestige and status across the globe, while raising anxieties among some. China always sought to return to what its leaders considered its rightful place as a major power in inter- national politics, and that ambition is coming closer to fruition. China’s successes, however, raise the question of in what direction its space program should move, especially the human spaceflight aspect. That activity is the most difficult and most prestigious but its benefits, at least in the short term, may be overtaken by the heavy costs incurred. Like the United States and the Russian Federation, China now has to be careful about what it wishes to accomplish because, in achieving those goals, the price may become higher than is acceptable in a society with very real needs. Space activities are open to all states willing to pay the price of admis- sion economically and technically. China becomes a case study in how a state formerly thought unprepared for such activities can now reach for the heavens. Its success points to the fact that space activities properly con- ceived and executed can be a real asset in the battle to overcome economic underdevelopment and all the assorted issues that go with that status. CSPC01 16/10/06 3:40 PM Page 1 Chapter 1 Overcoming the past, seizing the future Introduction Present Chinese space policy represents a long tale of struggle both domestically and internationally as a historically great power sought to return to international prominence. China now stands at the pinnacle of the international space prestige hierarchy, alongside Russia and the United States, with the launch of its Shenzhou 5 spacecraft carrying Yang Liwei, a Chinese astronaut or taikonaut. Space programs were conventionally considered a game of the rich country club due to their large resource requirements, but China’s rise as a significant space power challenges this perception. How did a country like China, considered backward both economically and technologically, emerge as an important player in the arena of space technology? What is the motivation of the Chinese government for engag- ing in its space program over the years? The analysis presented in this book traces the evolution of Chinese space policy and explores the broader his- torical and political context within which the Chinese space program has developed. This includes the now defunct Cold War, ending in 1991 with the disappearance of the Soviet Union, with its peculiar stresses and issues. In addition, the post Cold War dynamics and all the other major factors that impacted China’s domestic struggles in space program development are discussed. Internationally, in the post Cold War world, China is becoming a more important international player as it fully enters global politics, a journey fraught with setbacks. Domestically, China is transforming from a former socialist state to a hybrid state characterized by a free market economy and a one-party political system. The transition also creates certain internal dynamics, which impact policy makers’ perceptions which in the past were often motivated by internal domestic political struggles which both hindered and facilitated the program’s development. When supporters of China’s space program firmly hold power, resources flow to the space program more readily than otherwise. CSPC01 16/10/06 3:40 PM Page 2 2 Overcoming the past, seizing the future The space program itself was never a major independent center of domestic political conflict but was bundled up with larger issues of govern- ment science and technology policy along with its ever-present defense concerns. What has changed for China is that its space program has grown in stature and scope to the point now that the national leadership is com- mitted to its success regardless of other factors. All of this national activity must be placed in the larger context of China’s historical role in interna- tional space policy development. The international space regime clearly reflects the dominant influence of the original space participants, the Soviet Union and the United States. China represents a clear political challenge to those arrangements along several dimensions, political and developmental. China’s influence arises as the result of alliances with others and the improving state of development of its space technologies. Above all, China demands to be treated as an equal partner or competitor to the other two participants – it is unwilling to accept second-tier status. In this area, China has moved from the status of under- developed country to that of world-class space participant. For many years, China’s aspirations and rhetoric outran its capabilities – something con- sidered no longer true in the twenty-first century. This study of the Chinese space program is not simply a description of the technologies employed in their space program, but those technical fac- tors will be described when germane to the analysis. Nor is it strictly a detailed blow by blow history of the Chinese program, although the gen- eral historical context will be provided. Rather our intention is to place China explicitly within the larger contours of international space policy devel- opment, an historical process beginning with the public inception of the space age in October 1957 and even before that event. China, like Japan and India, represents a country aiming to develop its space program as inde- pendently as possible.1 In India’s case, that independence was forced on it due to its concomitant nuclear ambitions which isolated India with regard to missile or rocket technologies. Japan’s space ambitions have fluctuated over the years, a reflection of its defeat in World War II and the resulting constitutional restrictions placed on military technologies. China’s struggle for national autonomy is one factor in creating a Chinese space program strong enough to stand on its own, and, more import- antly, strong enough to cooperate on an equal basis with other states in multinational and international space projects. Cooperative international space activities provide China with entry into a variety of other important contexts: economic, technological and political. In this analysis, the cen- tral historical argument is that Chinese space endeavors have often mir- rored the earlier space efforts by the now defunct Soviet Union and the United States. Building and operating a successful space program demands that certain technological and physical tasks be completed, such as achiev- ing access to orbit or building viable spacecraft once in orbit. Those steps CSPC01 16/10/06 3:40 PM Page 3 Overcoming the past, seizing the future 3 are not avoidable although states clearly organize their respective space pro- grams in line with their own culture and politics. China, due to various political and military disputes, found itself building a space program in a manner analogous to the original pioneers. That isolation plus economic and technological weakness meant that China’s journey to space was hard and often beset with failure. The early space age saw the United States and the Soviet Union confront similar dis- appointments and failures but their economic and technical resources were greater, plus the goad of the nuclear arms race kept their attention focused on success. China built its program from a much less secure economic foun- dation, lengthening the time needed for success. In addition, Chinese polit- ical upheavals further disrupted progress. All of this meant that Chinese progress and success were not clear internationally until fairly recently. For years, China was off the radar of most observers. Since October 15, 2003, China has stood at the pinnacle of the inter- national space prestige hierarchy, alongside Russia and the United States, with the launch of its Shenzhou 5 spacecraft carrying Yang Liwei, a Chinese taikonaut. China and Russia and the United States are the only states to engage in the independent launch and recovery of humans to Earth orbit. All other astronauts, cosmonauts or taikonauts(or yuhangyuans) who venture to Earth orbit will do so as passengers of these three. The Chinese, like the earlier two programs, will only fly its nationals at first but that will change once its human spaceflight program becomes more established. Individuals from twenty-nine nationalities have flown to outer space, but always as invited or paying guests.2 This feat of reaching Earth orbit obvi- ously could have been accomplished by other states, but for various polit- ical and financial reasons those states have chosen not to do so. In fact, that political reality explains why by 2004 only seven states operated “their own launch vehicles and launch sites.”3 Other states such as Brazil are on the verge of independent success but launch failures and other accidents have crippled their efforts.4 Technology remains an important hurdle but for advanced states that usually represents a surmountable obstacle if the political and economic desire is present. Various reasons are given for not pursuing launch to Earth orbit, includ- ing the likely costs versus benefits, other international priorities, and vari- ous permutations of always-present budgetary tradeoffs within each state’s domestic political context. China’s success came only after many years of often-solitary struggle and stands unique among those states classified as economically underdeveloped. China remains a state encompassing great contrast between its cutting edge industries and universities in the coastal areas and urban centers and the much more traditional and poorer rural interior areas. This work presents one perspective on that national jour- ney, which began with the dawn of the space age on October 4, 1957 when Sputnik 1 flew to Earth orbit. China’s earliest space efforts were largely