Chinese and indian strategiC Behavior This book offers an empirical comparison of Chinese and Indian international strategic behavior. It is the first study of its kind, filling an important gap in the literature on rising Indian and Chinese power and American interests in Asia. The book creates a framework for the systematic and objective assessment of Chinese and Indian strategic behavior in four areas: (1) strategic culture; (2) foreign policy and use of force; (3) military modernization (including defense spending, military doctrine, and force modernization); and (4) economic strategies (including international trade and energy competition). The utility of democratic peace theory in predicting Chinese and Indian behavior is also examined. The findings challenge many assumptions underpinning Western expectations of China and India. George J. Gilboy is the chief representative of an international energy firm in China. Concurrently, he is a Senior Fellow at the Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). He was previously the head of Strategy and Planning for Shell Gas & Power in China. Prior to join- ing Shell, he established the China business for Cambridge Energy Research Associates. His publications have appeared in Foreign Affairs, The Washington Quarterly, The National Interest, Economic Research (Chinese), and Twenty- First Century Business Review (Chinese). He speaks and reads Chinese and has been living and working in China for the last eighteen years. He received his PhD in political science from MIT. Eric Heginbotham is a Senior Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation and specializes in East Asian political and security affairs. He was formerly a Senior Fellow of Asian Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has published in Foreign Affairs, International Security, Current History, Military Review, and a number of edited volumes. He has also coauthored several RAND mono- graphs and is the coeditor of China and the Developing World. He served as a Military Intelligence officer in the U.S. Army Reserve for fourteen years, spent more than ten years in Asia, and speaks and reads Chinese and Japanese. He received his PhD in political science from MIT. Chinese and Indian Strategic Behavior Growing Power and Alarm GeorGe J. Gilboy eric HeGinbotHam cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Mexico City Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY 10013-2473, USA www.cambridge.org Information on this title: www.cambridge.org/9781107661691 © George J. Gilboy and Eric Heginbotham 2012 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 2012 Printed in the United States of America A catalog record for this publication is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication data Gilboy, George J., 1964– Chinese and Indian strategic behavior : growing power and alarm / George J. Gilboy, Eric Heginbotham. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-107-02005-4 (hbk.) – ISBN 978-1-107-66169-1 (pbk.) 1. China – Foreign relations – 21st century. 2. Strategic culture – China. 3. China – Military policy. 4. China – Foreign economic relations. 5. India – Foreign relations – 21st century. 6. Strategic culture – India. 7. India – Military policy. 8. India – Foreign economic relations. I. Heginbotham, Eric. II. Title. JZ1734.G55 2011 355′.033551–dc23 2011046091 ISBN 978-1-107-02005-4 Hardback ISBN 978-1-107-66169-1 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party Internet Web sites referred to in this publication and does not guarantee that any content on such Web sites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. To our parents and our wives Contents List of Figures page viii List of Tables ix Acknowledgments xi Preface xv List of Abbreviations xxv Map 1. India and South Asia xxviii Map 2. China and the Asian Continent xxix Map 3. China and East Asia xxx 1 Introduction 1 2 Strategic Culture: Unique Paths to a Veiled Realpolitik 25 3 Foreign Policy, Use of Force, and Border Settlements 40 4 Military Modernization: Defense Spending 94 5 Military Doctrine: Toward Emphasis on Offensive Action 133 6 Military Force Modernization and Power Projection 164 7 Economic Strategic Behavior: Trade and Energy 209 8 India, China, and Democratic Peace Theory 251 9 Meeting the Dual Challenge: A U.S. Strategy for China and India 264 Appendix: Defense Spending, Selected Additional Data 301 Bibliography 309 Index 333 vii Figures 3.1 Continuity and change in foreign policy page 44 3.2 India: Use of force and war, 1947–2001 77 3.3 China: Use of force and war, 1949–2001 79 3.4 Indian and Chinese use of force and war, 1947–2001 80 4.1 China: Real GDP growth and real official defense budget growth 104 4.2 India: Real GDP growth and real official defense budget growth 104 4.3 Chinese and Indian official defense budgets as a percentage of GDP 105 4.4 Official defense spending share in central government expenditure 107 7.1 Upstream oil and gas acquisitions by value, 1994–2008, selected companies 236 7.2 Upstream oil and gas acquisitions by reserves, 1994–2008, selected companies 236 9.1 Standard view of security dilemmas in Asia 275 9.2 Nested security dilemmas in Asia 276 viii