Angang Hu · Yilong Yan Xing Wei China 2030 China 2030 Angang Hu (cid:129) Yilong Yan (cid:129) Xing Wei China 2030 Angang Hu Yilong Yan Center for China Studies Institute of Education and Researcher School of Public Policy and Management Institute for Contemporary China Studies Tsinghua University Tsinghua University Beijing , China Beijing , China Xing Wei School of Public Policy and Management Tsinghua University Beijing , China ISBN 978-3-642-31327-1 ISBN 978-3-642-31328-8 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8 Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2014936738 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 This work is subject to copyright. 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Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Contents 1 Brief Introduction ..................................................................................... 1 2 China’s Dream and Roadmap ................................................................. 3 China’s Dream: Common Prosperity and a Harmonious World ................ 4 China: A Society with Common Wealth .................................................... 9 Common Prosperity for China and the World ............................................ 9 Co-existence and Prosperity Between Man and Nature ............................. 10 China’s Roadmap ........................................................................................ 11 Logic of China’s Development ................................................................... 13 Theme and Structure of the Book ............................................................... 15 References ................................................................................................... 17 3 A World of Common Prosperity ............................................................. 19 A Golden Period for the Global Economy .................................................. 21 Period of Global Industrial Restructuring ................................................... 25 Intensi fi cation of International Economic Integration ................................ 26 Global S&T Revolution and Competition in Innovations .......................... 30 Period of Global Population Aging and Urbanization Acceleration .......... 32 Global Green Revolution and Green Energy .............................................. 34 Brief Summary: Toward a World of Common Prosperity .......................... 36 References ................................................................................................... 40 4 World Economic Power ............................................................................ 43 World’s Largest Economy .......................................................................... 44 Largest Consumer Market in the World ..................................................... 49 Largest Modern Industrial System in the World ......................................... 51 Largest Urban Population in the World ...................................................... 55 World’s Largest and Most Modern Infrastructure ...................................... 57 Summary: Toward a World Economic Power ............................................ 59 References ................................................................................................... 60 5 The World’s Strongest Innovative Power ............................................... 63 A World Leader in Human Resources ........................................................ 65 v vi Contents A Strong Power in Knowledgeable and Skilled People .............................. 68 A Strong Power in S&T Innovation ............................................................ 72 Strongest IT Development Power in the World .......................................... 77 Summary: China Will Be a Strong Innovative World Power ..................... 78 References ................................................................................................... 79 6 High-Welfare State ................................................................................... 81 High-Income Country ................................................................................. 82 High Education Levels ................................................................................ 85 A Healthy State ........................................................................................... 89 A Country with High Human Development ............................................... 93 Summary: Toward a High-Level Human Welfare State ............................. 96 References ................................................................................................... 97 7 A Society with Shared Wealth ................................................................. 99 Common Wealth Shared by Both Urban and Rural Areas ......................... 101 Common Prosperity Among Different Regions ......................................... 103 Equalization of Basic Public Services ........................................................ 106 Summary: Toward a Common Wealth Society .......................................... 112 References ................................................................................................... 114 8 Green China .............................................................................................. 117 A Superpower of Forest Surpluses and Carbon Sink .................................. 119 A Country of Harmony Between Its People and Water .............................. 121 A Country with Clear Water and Blue Sky ................................................ 125 Concerted Efforts to Make China a Beautiful Homeland ........................... 126 World’s Largest Green Energy Nation ....................................................... 128 A Country of Low-Carbon Green Development ........................................ 132 Summary: Toward Green Modernization ................................................... 135 References ................................................................................................... 139 9 Concerted Efforts Toward Great Harmony ........................................... 141 Common Wealth Society ............................................................................ 142 “World of Great Harmony” ........................................................................ 146 Humanity’s Right Way ............................................................................... 151 References ................................................................................................... 153 Chapter 1 Brief Introduction A great nation has a great dream; a great country has a great dream. China’s dream is to build a society of common prosperity and a world in which all people live together in peace and harmony. China did not begin its journey toward this great dream until after the founding of the New China, more so after its reform and opening up. The Chinese people will come close to realizing this great dream by 2030. T his book provides predictions up to 2030 regarding the future major developments and trends of both China and the world in general from a historical and worldwide perspective. It analyzes the impact of interactions between China and the rest of the world using a strategic view and a specialized study of national and international conditions. By carrying forward the spirit of Chinese culture and spreading the socialist theory of common prosperity, this book spells out the dreams of all mankind in the pursuit of common prosperity. It also offers China’s vision and perspective to the world, as well as Chinese scholars’ perspective on and worldwide vision for the future. T he year 2030 will see China become a country with a population of more than a billion people, sharing prosperity, national power and a beautiful homeland. China will become a world economic power in the real sense of the term, with a GDP aggregate 2.0–2.2 times that of the United States, and its human development index 3.2 times greater. It will become a green homeland, with blue skies, clear water and beautiful landscapes. The year 2030 will witness more than 200 countries and regions, and more than 8 billion people embark on a road to universal harmony. The whole world will experience unprecedented development; the south and the north will experience unprecedented convergence and the north–south divide will undergo an exceptional reversal, further infl u encing the shift in the main development indicators, which have gone from 30:70 (20–30 years ago) to 50:50 (present day), and are predicted to be at 70:30 (in another 20–30 years). As predicted by Mao Zedong, “Peace would then reign over the world, with all people under heaven to share the same warmth and cold.” A. Hu et al., China 2030, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8_1, 1 © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014 Chapter 2 China’s Dream and Roadmap Fraternity, equality and justice – This is a world of great universal harmony. KangYouwei(1913) Fifty yearsago,ComradeMaoZedongpointedoutprophetically,“Thenext fifty (2012) orhundredyears(2062)fromnowwillbeanepicperiodoffundamental change inthesocialsystemoftheworld,anearth-shakingperiod,withwhichno pasteracanbecompared.…Livinginsuchaperiod,wemustbepreparedtocarry outgreatstruggles,differinginmanyrespectsfromtheformsofstruggleofprevious periods” (MaoZedong 1999a). Threeearth-shatteringeventsthentookplacein China inthelatterhalfofthetwentiethcenturyandthesechangesexceededany previous historicalevents.The first significant eventwasthefoundingofaNew China.TheChinesepeoplestoodupandasocialistsystemwasestablished,withthe peoplebecomingthemastersoftheircountryforthefirsttimeinhistory.Thesecond majoreventwastheestablishmentofanindependentandcompleteindustrialsystem andanationaleconomicsystemin1949–1978.Thispavedthewayinstitutionally, in humanresourcesandindustries,forthesubsequentreformandopeningupof China.Thethirdmajoreventwasthereformandopeningupafter1978,whichfully realizedChina’sproductivity,offeringChina’speopleabetterstandardofliving. Likewise, furtherearth-shatteringchangeswilloccurinthe first halfofthe twenty-first century.Chinawillaccomplishafurtherthreemajorundertakings that willenablethecountrytorealizefullmodernizationbythemiddleofthe century.Itwillbecomeawealthy,strong,democratic-socialistcountrywithahigh levelofcivility,andwillgoontocreatenewmiracles.Thefirstmajorundertaking is tobuildacomprehensiveandprosperoussocietyinthe first 20yearsofthis century. Thesecondistoconstructasocietywithcommonprosperityby2030. Thisstageisadevelopmentalonethatwillbuildthefoundationsofthethirdstage. Itistheinevitableextensionofaprosperoussocietyandalsoaninevitablepathto complete modernization.Thethirdundertakingistorealizecompletesocialist modernization. A.Huetal.,China 2030, DOI10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8_2, 3 ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014 4 2 China’sDreamandRoadmap Theworldwillalsoundergotremendouschangesinthefollowingdecades.Great developmentwilloccurastheworldholdsitslargesteverpopulationandengages inamultitudeofeconomicactivities.Thesefactorswillreversethecurrentunequal structure ofinternationalplayersandtheglobalorderdominatedbyjustafew Western powers.Forthe first timeinhumanhistory,therewillappearasceneof commondevelopment,commonprosperityandcommonprogressamongthemore thaneightbillioncitizensoftheworld.Theremarkablechangesthatwilltakeplace inChinaareboundtotriggerfurthersignificantchangesworldwide,whichwill,in turn, stimulateandpromotechangesinChina.Thegeneralorientationofthese changeswillbetowardaharmoniousworld. China’s Dream: Common Prosperity and a Harmonious World Greatnationsandcountriesneedgreatdreams.Eachnationandcountryhasdiffer- entdreamsduringdifferenteras.Chinaanditspeoplehavealwayshadagreatdream andhavebeenpursuingitconstantlytorealizeitsfulfillment. More than2000yearsago,ConfuciusvisualizedadreamforChinaof“great harmony”anda“prosperoussociety”.Heperceivedanidealsocietyasbeing: Whentheperfectorderprevails,theworldislikeahomesharedbyall.Virtuousandworthy men areelectedtopublicof fice, andcapablemenholdpostsofgainfulemploymentin society;peaceandtrustamongallmenarethemaximsofliving.Allmenloveandrespect theirownparentsandchildren,aswellastheparentsandchildrenofothers.Thereiscaring fortheold;therearejobsfortheadults;therearenourishmentandeducationforchildren. Thereisameansofsupportofwidows,andthewidowers;forallwhofindthemselvesalone intheworld;andforthedisabled.Everymanandwomanhasanappropriateroletoplayin thefamilyandsociety.Asenseofsharingdisplacestheeffectsofselfishnessandmaterialism. Adevotiontopublicdutyleavesnoroomforidleness.Intriguesandconnivingforillgain areunknown.Villainssuchasthievesandrobbersdonotexist.Thedoortoeveryhome needneverbelockedandboltedbydayornight.Thesearethecharacteristicsofanideal world,aworldofgreatharmony.1 Confuciusviewedaharmoniousworldasa“utopia.”Therealworldhastobea “prosperous”society,justshortofaworldofgreatharmony. Despite thefactthatthroughouthistoryChinahasbeencarvedupbyvarious Westernpowersandhasexperiencedsignificantdecline,theChinesepeoplehave never givenuptheirpursuitoftheirgreatdream.KangYouweireaf firmed and furtherdevelopedtheage-olddreamof“greatharmony”whenhesaidthatdevel- opedcapitalismwasnottheultimategoalofhumanity,butwasratherastagecloser topeace,whichisthenfollowedbyahigherstageofsocialdevelopment;thatis,a worldofgreatharmonyisonewhereallboundariesanddifferencesareeliminated (including thenineboundariesbetweenstates,classes,races,gender,families, property, animalsandman,professions,ruralandurbanareas,andmountainous 1“BookofSites:LiYun”.