UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Towards 2030 UNESCO Publishing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization Published in 2015 by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP, France © UNESCO 2015 Second revised edition 2016 This publication is available in Open Access under the Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 IGO (CC-BY-SA 3.0 IGO) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/igo). By using the content of this publication, the users accept to be bound by the terms of use of the UNESCO Open Access Repository (http://www.unesco.org/open-access/ terms-use-ccbysa-en). The present license applies exclusively to the text content of the publication. For the use of any material not clearly identified as belonging to UNESCO, prior permission shall be requested from: publication.copyright@unesco. org or UNESCO Publishing, 7, place de Fontenoy, 75352 Paris 07 SP France. ISBN 978-92-3-100129-1 Original title: UNESCO Science Report: towards 2030 The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The ideas and opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors; they are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. Design, typeset, data visualization and pre-press production: Baseline Arts Ltd, Oxford, United Kingdom Cover design: Corinne Hayworth Cover photo: © Bygermina/Shutterstock.com Printed in Luxembourg by Imprimerie Centrale UNESCO Publishing United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Towards 2030 UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT A variety of policy instruments have been introduced to make endogenous research more responsive to the needs of the productive system and society at large. This is now beginning to bear fruit in some countries. Guillermo A. Lemarchand A young man from the Achuar Territory in Ecuador holds up a frog. There is a growing research focus on pharmacology, biodiversity and the sustainable management of natural resources in Latin America. Photo: © James Morgan/ Panos 174 Latin America . 7 Latin America Argentina, Plurinational State of Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela Guillermo A. Lemarchand INTRODUCTION although South America is set to contract by 0.4%, Central American economies and Mexico are likely to expand by 2.7% Development slowing after a buoyant decade (ECLAC, 2015a). Latin America consists essentially of middle-income economies1 with very high (Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Prospects for Central America have improved, thanks to the Venezuela), high or medium levels of development. Chile healthy economic growth of their biggest trading partner, has the highest GDP per capita and Honduras the lowest. the USA (see Chapter 5), and lower oil prices since mid-2014. Within countries, inequality is among the highest in the Moreover, declining prices for raw materials since the end of world, even though there has been some improvement in the commodities boom in 2010 should give countries in Central the past decade. According to the United Nations Economic America and the Caribbean which are net importers of these Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), the four countries products some breathing space. The Mexican economy is with the lowest levels of poverty are, Honduras, Brazil, also dependent on North America’s performance and is, thus, Dominican Republic and Colombia (on Brazil, see Chapter 8). looking more dynamic. Present reforms in Latin America within the energy and telecommunications sectors, in particular, The Latin American economy grew by just 1.1% in 2014, are expected to push up growth rates in the medium term. meaning that GDP per capita actually stagnated. Preliminary Meanwhile, growth forecasts are being revised downwards for figures for the first quarter of 2015 suggest an ongoing those countries of South America that export raw materials. slowdown in activity since the decade-long commodities GDP is most dependent on this type of export in Venezuela, boom wound down in 2010 (see also Figure 7.1); some of followed by Ecuador and Bolivia then Chile and Colombia. the region’s larger economies could even experience a contraction. While the region is expected to grow by about The Andean countries of Chile, Colombia and Peru are in a 0.5% on average in 2015, this masks a fairly wide variation: comparatively enviable position but this may be short-lived, since their growth is expected to falter. Paraguay is also 1. Argentina and the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela have had high inflation rates showing strong growth, as it recovers from a severe drought for the past few years. However, the ‘official’ exchange rate has remained flat, a in 2012, whereas Uruguay’s economy is growing at a more factor which might generate some distortions in the real GDP per capita values expressed in US dollars. For a discussion of this issue, see ECLAC (2015a). moderate rate. Figure 7.1: Trends in GDP growth in Latin America, 2005–2009 and 2010–2014 8.28.3 2005–2009 2010–2014 1 7. 8 6.55.8 6.45.1 6.1 5.95.0 5.74.3 4.84.3 4.74.8 4.75.3 4.1 5.0 4.6 6. 4.7 Chapter 7 3.7 3.73.6 3.63.2 3.4 9 3.3 2.7 2. 2.7 1 2. 1.91.8 5 1 1. 1. Panama Cuba PerDuominiRceapn u bVliecnezuela Uruguay ArgentinaCosta RicaColombia BoliviaHonduras EcuadorGuatemala Brazil ChileParaguayNicaraguaEl Salvador Mexico Note: Data for Cuba cover 2005–2009 and 2010–2013. Source: World Bank’s World Development Indicators, September 2015 175 UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT In Venezuela, the collapse of the Brent crude price since 2015 to face charges of fraud after months of street mid-2014 has complicated an already difficult political protests; such a development would have been inconceivable situation but the economy is still performing vigorously. a few decades ago, suggesting that the rule of law has Argentina, meanwhile, is facing a debt crisis that has pitched gained traction in Guatemala. The normalization of bilateral it against private creditors in the USA; it showed almost zero relations with the USA in 2015 should give Cuban science growth in 2014 and this indicator may slip further in 2015. a considerable boost. Meanwhile, political tensions persist The combination of numerous administrative barriers and in Venezuela, the only country in the region to have seen successive fiscal and monetary policies designed to stimulate its scientific publications decline between 2005 and 2014 household and business spending have engaged both (by 28%). Argentina and Venezuela in a spiral of high inflation levels and low foreign reserves. Political stability, the absence of violence, government effectiveness and the control of corruption are all vital On the political front, there has been some turbulence. to achieve long-term development goals and improve a A corruption scandal involving the Brazilian oil company country’s scientific and technological performance. However, Petrobras has taken a political turn (see Chapter 8). only Chile, Costa Rica and Uruguay currently have positive In Guatemala, President Pérez Molina resigned in September values for all of these governance indicators. Colombia, Figure 7.2: Relation between governance indicators and scientific productivity in Latin America, 2013 2.0 300 articles per million inhabitants 1.5 Chile 50 articles per million inhabitants Note: The size of the bubble is proportionate to the number of articles per million inhabitants in 1.0 2013. Horizontal and vertical axis values should be read from the centre of each bubble. 3) 0.5 Costa Rica 01 Uruguay s (2 Mexico Panama s e Colombia en Brazil El Salvador v cti 0.0 ef fe -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 nt Peru Argentina e m n Bolivia ver -0.5 Cuba Go Ecuador Dominican Honduras Republic Guatemala Nicaragua Paraguay -1.0 Venezuela -1.5 -2.0 Political stability/absence of violence (2013) Source: author, based on World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators; United Nations Statistics Division; and Thomson Reuters’ Science Citation Index Extended 176 Latin America Mexico and Panama can boast of government effectiveness The majority of Latin American economies specialize in low but not of political stability, owing to internal conflicts. technology, however, not only in terms of the content of Argentina, Cuba and the Dominican Republic all have positive their manufactured goods but also insofar as firms investing values for political stability but are less effective when it in an industry tend to operate at a considerable distance comes to policy implementation. The remainder of countries from the technological frontier. In addition to involving more have negative values for both indicators. It is interesting to innovation, the production and export of medium- or high- note the high correlation between good governance and tech goods requires a higher level of physical and human scientific productivity (Figure 7.2). capital than low-tech products or those based on natural resources. A regional union modelled on the EU At the regional level, one of the most momentous In recent decades, the region has experienced mixed fortunes developments in recent years has been the creation of the in incorporating technology into its exports. Mexico and, Union of South American Nations (UNASUR). The treaty was to a lesser extent, Central America, have achieved a radical approved in May 2008 and entered into force in March 2011; transformation from commodities to medium- and high-tech the South American Council of Science, Technology and manufactured products, thanks to special import regimes and Innovation (COSUCTI) was established a year later within export-oriented manufacturing. By contrast, the technological UNASUR to foster scientific co-operation. content of South American exports has not changed. This is because, on the whole, Latin America specializes in primary The new regional body is modelled on the European Union production. (EU) and, thus, embraces the principle of the freedom of movement of people, goods, capital and services. UNASUR’s Only in Costa Rica and, to a lesser degree, Mexico, do 12 members2 have plans to establish a common currency certain high-tech exports drive economic growth to an and parliament (in Cochabamba, Bolivia) and are discussing extent comparable with developing European economies the idea of standardizing university degrees. UNASUR’s (Figure 7.3). Moreover, there has been a decline in the high- headquarters are located in Quito (Ecuador) and its Bank of tech component of manufactured exports from Mexico (and the South in Caracas (Venezuela). Rather than creating other Brazil) since 2000. In Costa Rica, the large share of high-tech new institutions, UNASUR plans to rely on existing trade blocs exports can be explained by the arrival of Intel, Hewlett– like the Common Market for the South (MERCOSUR) and the Packard and IBM in the late 1990s; this drove high-tech goods Andean Community. to a peak of 63% of manufactured exports before their share stabilized at around 45%, according to the UNESCO Science High-tech exports drive growth in very few countries Report 2010. In April 2014, Intel announced that it would The sectorial distribution of FDI in Latin America follows be relocating its microchip assembly plant in Costa Rica to a very distinct pattern. In 2014, 18% of the region’s Malaysia. Intel is estimated to have brought in 11% of net technology-oriented FDI focused on low-tech projects, 22% FDI inflows in 2000–2012 and represented 20% of Costa on medium–low, 56% on medium–high and only 4% on Rican exports in recent years. The cost to Costa Rica of the high-tech projects. Investment in high technology tends closure of Intel’s production facility has been estimated at to be destined for Brazil and Mexico, where much of it is 0.3–0.4% of GDP over a 12-month period. The closure may captured by the automotive sector. At the other extreme, this reflect the highly competitive market for microchip assembly C type of technology accounts for less than 40% of FDI flows or the declining demand for personal computers worldwide. h ap to Colombia, Panama and Peru. In Bolivia, the commodities Although Intel wound up its assembly operations in Costa ter 7 sector receives the lion’s share, especially the mining industry. Rica with the loss of 1 500 jobs in 2014, it also added about In Central America and the Dominican Republic, where non- 250 high-value jobs to the company’s R&D group based renewable natural resources are scarce and investment in in Costa Rica (Moran, 2014). Meanwhile, Hewlett Packard maquiladoras3 is not very capital-intensive, most investment announced in 2013 that it would be moving 400 jobs in ICT goes to the services sector, which in the case of the services from its Costa Rican operations to Bangalore in India Dominican Republic includes a competitive tourism sector. but that it would be remaining in Costa Rica. Ecuador, Colombia and especially Brazil have a more balanced distribution of FDI (ECLAC, 2015b). A recent comparison with Southeast Asia has shown that the unfavourable conditions for trade in Latin America, such as time-consuming administrative procedures for exports, have 2. Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, discouraged export-intensive firms in the region from deeply Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela integrating global supply chains (Ueki, 2015). Trade costs are 3. A maquiladora is an export-processing zone where factories are exonerated from also negatively affecting the development of internationally custom duties to enable them to assemble and transform goods using imported components, many of which are then re-exported. competitive manufacturing industries in Latin America. 177 UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT Figure 7.3: Technological intensity of Latin American exports, 2013 45 70 Costa Rica 40 60 50 35 Costa Rica 43.3 40 3) 30 1 20 Cuba 35.4 s ( ort p x e d 30 e ur ct 25 a uf n 23.0 a m of e 20 g a nt Mexico 16.0 e c 20 er p a s Brazil 9.6 a s 10 ort 8.4 7.9 Argentina 9.9 p Mexico ex 6.5 5.2 5.7 Colombia 7.4 h h-tec 15 2.0 Chile 4.9 g Hi 0 1990–1992 1993–1995 1996–1998 1999–2001 2002–2004 2005–2007 2008–2010 2011–2013 Argentina 10 Uruguay Brazil Bolivia Colombia Paraguay Chile Guatemala 5 Ecuador El Salvador Peru Dominican Republic Venezuela Nicaragua Panama 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 Manufactured exports as a percentage of merchandise exports (2013) Source: author, based on raw data from the World Bank accessed in July 2015 178 Latin America TRENDS IN STI POLICY AND the public and/or private sectors (Lemarchand, 2010; CEPAL, GOVERNANCE 2014; IDB, 2014). In Colombia, for instance, 10% of the revenue from the General Royalties System Fund (est. 2011) goes A growing public policy focus on R&D towards STI. In Peru, 25% of the royalties from the exploitation Over the past decade, several Latin American countries of various natural resources are allocated to the regional have given their scientific institutions more political weight. government where the mining took place through what are Honduras, for example, has passed a law (2013) and related known as Canon funds (est. 2001); of these royalties, 20% decree (2014) creating a national innovation system is earmarked exclusively for public investment in academic composed of the National Secretariat for Science, Technology research that promotes regional development through and Innovation (SENACIT) and the Honduran Institute of science and engineering. In Peru, 5% of the royalties from Science, Technology and Innovation (IHCIETI), among other mining are allocated to universities by law (2004). A similar law bodies, including a national foundation for funding STI. adopted by Chile in 2005 allocates 20% of mining revenue to In 2009, Colombia passed a law defining the attributes and an innovation fund (IDB, 2014). mandates of each individual institution within its entire national innovation system. In so doing, it followed in the The most traditional mechanisms for promoting scientific footsteps of Panama (2007), Venezuela (2005), Peru (2004), research in Latin America are competitive grants and centres Mexico (2002) and Argentina (2001). of excellence. Competitive funds may target infrastructure and the equipping of laboratories, take the form of travel grants, In some cases, these new legal frameworks require that STI research grants, technological development grants or financial policies be approved by interministerial councils like the incentives that reward a researcher’s scientific productivity. Scientific–Technological Cabinet (GACTEC) in Argentina. In Argentina’s Incentive Programme for University Teachers other cases, STI policies may be approved by more eclectic who conduct scientific research and the National System of councils bringing together the president, secretaries of state, Researchers (SNI) in Mexico6 have played a fundamental role academies of sciences and representatives of the private in expanding academic research. Two examples of centres of sector, as in the case of the Council for Scientific Research, excellence are the Programa Iniciativa Científica Milenio in Chile Technological Development and Innovation (CGICDTI)4 in and the Centro de Excelencia en Genómica in Colombia. Mexico. The most complex and sophisticated institutional ecosystems are found in the larger, richer economies of Over the past two decades, most Latin American countries have Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico.5 created specific funds for competitive research and innovation.7 Most of these funds originated from a series of national loans Argentina, Brazil and Costa Rica all have Ministries of Science, provided by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB). The Technology and Innovation. In Cuba, the Dominican Republic IDB wields considerable influence over the design of national and Venezuela, on the other hand, the science ministry shares research and innovation policies by proposing specific terms its mandate with higher education or the environment. Chile of reference for how these loans should be allocated: as has a National Innovation Council and Uruguay a Ministerial competitive grants, credits, scholarships, for public–private Cabinet for Innovation. Several countries still have National partnerships, new evaluation and assessment procedures, etc. Science and Technology Councils with policy planning attributes, as in Mexico and in Peru. Other countries have Cuba adopted this competitive funding model in 2014 C national secretaries of science and technology, such as Panama with the creation of the Financial Science and Innovation hap and Ecuador. In March 2013, Ecuador also created a National Fund (FONCI), which promotes research and innovation in ter 7 Council for Science and Technology (see p. 203). Some have the public and business enterprise sector. This is a major administrative departments responsible for science and breakthrough for Cuba, considering that, up until now, the technology, like Colombia’s Administrative Department for bulk of the research budget for all R&D institutions, personnel Science, Technology and Innovation (Colciencias). and research projects has come from the public purse. 6. respectively the Programa de Incentivo a Docentes Investigadores (Argentina) A variety of sophisticated funding schemes for R&D and Sistema Nacional de Investigadores (Mexico); both programmes established Over the past decade, many countries have formulated a financial incentive for university teachers, according to their annual scientific strategic plans and designed a variety of new policy productivity and their category of researcher instruments, including fiscal incentives, to foster innovation in 7. Examples are the Fondo para la Investigación Científica y Tecnológica (FONCYT) and Fondo Tecnológico Argentino (FONTAR, Argentina), Fondo de Fomento al Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico (FONDEF, Chile), Fondo de Riesgo para la 4. Consejo General de Investigación Científica, Desarrollo Tecnológico e Innovación Investigación (FORINVES, Costa Rica), Fondo Financiero de Ciencia e Innovación 5. The complete organizational charts of all Latin American and Caribbean (FONCI, Cuba), Fondo de Apoyo a la Ciencia y Tecnología (FACYT, Guatemala), countries can be found at UNESCO’s Global Observatory of STI Policy Instruments Fondo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (FONACYT, Paraguay), Fondo para la (GO➝SPIN), which developed a prototype in 2010 for monitoring these national Innovación, Ciencia y Tecnología (FINCYT, Peru) and the Agencia Nacional de innovation systems. See: http://spin.unesco.org.uy Investigación e Innovación (ANII, Uruguay) 179 UNESCO SCIENCE REPORT A shift towards sectorial funding of R&D Sectorial funds are one illustration of the diversity of Brazil established 14 sectorial funds between 1999 and sophisticated policy instruments (Table 7.1) promoting 2002 to channel taxes8 levied on specific state-owned research and innovation in Latin America, even if these companies towards fostering industrial development in key instruments have proved more effective in some countries industries and services such as oil and gas, energy, space or than others. All countries face the same challenges, however. information technology. Argentina, Mexico and Uruguay For one thing, there is a need to link endogenous research have all reoriented their policies towards this type of vertical with innovation in the productive sector – this problem was funding, as opposed to horizontal funding which tends not to already highlighted in the UNESCO Science Report 2010 and prioritize fields. Mexico adopted 11 sectorial funds in 2003 and stems from the lack of long-term industrial policies (over a 12th for sustainability research in 2008. Other examples are decades) to promote private-sector innovation. There is also a Argentina’s Sectorial Fund (FONARSEC, est. 2009) and the fund need to design and develop more effective policy instruments for software (FONSOFT, est. 2004), as well as the Innovagro to connect the demand and supply sides of national Sectorial Fund for the Uruguayan agro-industry (est. 2008). innovation systems. In addition, there is a weak culture of evaluation and oversight for scientific programmes and Brazil launched its own Inova-Agro programme in mid-2013. projects in most Latin American countries; only Argentina and Inova-Agro has since become the main tool for channelling Brazil can boast of having institutions that conduct strategic funding to the agribusiness sector disbursed by the National foresight studies, the Centre of Management and Strategic Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), since Studies (CGEE) in Brazil and the new Interdisciplinary Centre it accounts for over 80% of the total of circa US$ 27 million; for Studies in Science, Technology and Innovation (CIECTI)9 in more than four-fifths of Inova-Agro funding targets livestock, Argentina, which opened in April 2015. fisheries and aquaculture. 9. Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (Brazil) and Centro Interdisciplinario de 8. For details, see the UNESCO Science Report 2010. Estudios en Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación (Argentina) Table 7.1: Inventory of operational STI policy instruments in Latin America, 2010–2015 Policy instruments to: Number of operational policy instruments by objective a. strengthen production of new endogenous scientific Country knowledge; a b c d e f g h i j k l m b. strengthen the infrastructure of public and private Argentina 22 9 25 2 32 15 5 4 5 14 12 10 38 research laboratories; Bolivia 2 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 4 3 1 5 c. build capacity in research, innovation and strategic planning; Brazil 15 10 31 6 6 15 5 5 5 8 4 27 d. strengthen gender equality in research and Chile 25 12 25 6 24 17 7 6 14 6 37 innovation; Colombia 6 1 2 1 10 1 1 3 2 2 1 6 e. strengthen the social appropriation of scientific Costa Rica 2 2 10 2 23 4 3 4 4 4 knowledge and new technologies; Cuba 5 1 f. develop strategic S&T areas; Dominican Rep. 1 g. strengthen science education from primary to postgraduate levels; Ecuador 5 4 2 2 4 1 1 4 h.develop green technologies and technologies El Salvador 4 2 5 9 1 6 2 fostering social inclusion; Guatemala 3 6 6 2 1 4 i. promote indigenous knowledge systems; Honduras 1 1 1 2 1 j. strengthen co-ordination, networking and integration processes in the research and innovation Mexico 16 9 13 5 6 14 6 3 4 6 5 19 eco-system to promote synergies among the Nicaragua 1 1 1 government, university and productive sectors; Panama 5 2 14 6 3 1 1 1 4 k. strengthen the quality of technology foresight studies to: assess the potential of high-value Paraguay 8 1 6 5 4 1 3 2 5 3 markets; develop business plans for high-tech Peru 10 7 12 1 6 3 5 1 1 2 6 companies; construct and analyse long-term scenarios; and provide consulting services and Uruguay 13 3 11 1 13 9 2 3 3 8 4 14 strategic intelligence; Venezuela 5 1 3 2 7 2 1 2 l. strengthen regional and international co-operation, networking and promotion of science and Source: compiled by author on the basis of operational policy instruments collected by UNESCO’s technology; Montevideo office (http://spin.unesco.org.uy) and categorized using the new GO➞SPIN methodology: see UNESCO (2014) Proposed Standard Practice for Surveys on Science, Engineering, Technology and Innovation m. promote start-ups in high-tech fields and new niche (SETI) Policy Instruments, SETI Governing Bodies, SETI Legal Framework and Policies products and services with high added value. 180