Carbon Free Boston Transportation Technical Report 2019 Project Team Cambridge Systematics Christopher Porter Xiao Yun (Jane) Chang Martin Milkovits Scott Boone Institute for Sustainable Energy (ISE), Boston University Cutler J. Cleveland Margaret Cherne-Hendrick Kevin Zheng Principal Investigator Senior Policy Associate, ISE Research Fellow, ISE Professor, Department of Earth and Sucharita Gopal Robert Perry Environment, ISE Professor, Department of Earth and Administrative Coordinator, ISE Peter Fox-Penner Environment, ISE Laura Hurley Co-Principal Investigator Joshua R. Castigliego Communications Manager, ISE Director, ISE Research Fellow, ISE Olivia Simpson Professor of Practice, Questrom School of Taylor Perez Web Site Developer, ISE Business Graduate Research Assistant, ISE Michael J. Walsh Adam Pollack Technical Lead, ISE PhD Student, Department of Earth and Research Assistant Professor, Department Environment, ISE of Earth and Environment Carbon Free Boston Steering Committee Janet Atkins Richard McGuinness Carl Spector Ridgeway Philanthropy Boston Planning & Development Agency City of Boston Vineet Gupta Bud Ris Kathleen Theoharides City of Boston Boston Green Ribbon Commission Commonwealth of Massachusetts Green Ribbon Commission Staff John Cleveland Amy Longsworth Green Ribbon Commission Carbon Free Boston Working Group Mindy Lubber Amos B. Hostetter, Jr. Marcy Reed Ceres (Chair) Barr Foundation National Grid Robert A. Brown Katherine Lapp Israel Ruiz Boston University Harvard University MIT Christopher Cook Alexandra Liftman Al Scaramelli City of Boston Bank of America Beacon Capital Partners Bill Fahey Penni McLean-Conner Veolia Eversource City of Boston Staff Alison Brizius Lexi Smith Kat Eshel Vineet Gupta Project Support The work of Carbon Free Boston was made possible by the generous support of these organizations: Sherry and Alan Leventhal Family Foundation City of Boston C40 Barr Foundation Commonwealth of Massachusetts Microsoft The Grantham Foundation National Grid Orsted William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Eversource Henry P. Kendall Foundation Bank of America Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report Christopher Porter,1 Martin Milkovits,1 Xiao Yun (Jane) Chang,1 Scott Boone,1 Michael J. Walsh,2,3 Joshua R. Castigliego,2,3 and Cutler J. Cleveland2,3 1Cambridge Systematics Inc., Medford, MA, USA 2Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA 3Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA Please cite this report as: Porter, Christopher, Martin Milkovits, Xiao Yun (Jane) Chang, Scott Boone, Michael J. Walsh, Joshua R. Castigliego, and Cutler J. Cleveland. 2019. Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report (Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy, Boston, MA, USA). Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/technical-reports. Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical Report Available at http://sites.bu.edu/cfb/ © 2019 by the Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy This work and its associated results are made available under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. i Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation CONTENTS 1 Overview..................................................................................................................................................... 1 2 Summary of Key Findings ........................................................................................................................... 1 3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 3 3.1 Boston’s Transportation System ........................................................................................................... 3 3.2 Existing City, Regional, and State Plans and Policies ............................................................................. 4 4 Baseline Inventory and Forecast ................................................................................................................ 8 4.1 Scope and Methods ............................................................................................................................... 8 4.2 Data Sources ........................................................................................................................................ 10 4.3 Drivers of Future GHG Emissions......................................................................................................... 13 4.4 Baseline Forecast Results .................................................................................................................... 20 4.5 Resident Activity .................................................................................................................................. 20 4.6 Comparison of Inventories .................................................................................................................. 21 4.7 VMT by Neighborhood and Community.............................................................................................. 22 4.8 Uncertainties and Their Potential Impacts on the Baseline ................................................................ 30 5 Transportation Sector Models ................................................................................................................. 32 5.1 Sketch Model ....................................................................................................................................... 32 5.2 Geographic Model ............................................................................................................................... 33 6 Future Policy Scenarios ............................................................................................................................ 34 6.1 Policies and Analysis Approach by Strategy Focus Area ..................................................................... 34 7 Electrification Scenarios ........................................................................................................................... 37 Case Study: Accelerating EVs Adoption ........................................................................................................ 43 8 Impacts by Focus Area .............................................................................................................................. 44 8.1 Clean Vehicles ...................................................................................................................................... 44 8.2 Land Use .............................................................................................................................................. 52 8.3 Transit .................................................................................................................................................. 56 8.4 Active Transportation .......................................................................................................................... 60 Case Study: Biking in Boston ......................................................................................................................... 63 8.5 Autonomous Vehicles in Private Ownership ....................................................................................... 65 8.6 Smart Mobility (Shared Vehicle Services)............................................................................................ 68 8.7 Pricing Vehicle Travel .......................................................................................................................... 74 8.8 Travel Demand Management .............................................................................................................. 79 9 Pathways to Zero Carbon: Combined Scenario Impacts .......................................................................... 82 Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. ii Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation 10 Other Benefits and Impacts ...................................................................................................................... 93 10.1 VMT and Active PMT Changes ............................................................................................................. 93 10.2 Emissions and Health ........................................................................................................................... 95 10.3 Safety ................................................................................................................................................... 95 10.4 Summary of Co-Benefits ...................................................................................................................... 95 11 Costs and Cost-effectiveness .................................................................................................................... 97 11.1 Method ................................................................................................................................................ 97 11.2 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 98 11.3 Revenue Generation .......................................................................................................................... 103 12 Policy Implications .................................................................................................................................. 105 13 Issues for Future Consideration/Analysis ............................................................................................... 107 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 108 People and Organizations ............................................................................................................................... 111 Abbreviations .................................................................................................................................................. 112 Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. iii Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation 1 OVERVIEW Transportation connects Boston’s workers, residents and tourists to their livelihoods, health care, education, recreation, culture, and other aspects of life quality. In cities, transit access is a critical factor determining upward mobility. Yet many urban transportation systems, including Boston’s, underserve some populations along one or more of those dimensions. Boston has the opportunity and means to expand mobility access to all residents, and at the same time reduce GHG emissions from transportation. This requires the transformation of the automobile-centric system that is fueled predominantly by gasoline and diesel fuel. The near elimination of fossil fuels—combined with more transit, walking, and biking—will curtail air pollution and crashes, and dramatically reduce the public health impact of transportation. The City embarks on this transition from a position of strength. Boston is consistently ranked as one of the most walkable and bikeable cities in the nation, and one in three commuters already take public transportation. There are three general strategies to reaching a carbon-neutral transportation system: • Shift trips out of automobiles to transit, biking, and walking;1 • Reduce automobile trips via land use planning that encourages denser development and affordable housing in transit-rich neighborhoods; • Shift most automobiles, trucks, buses, and trains to zero-GHG electricity. Even with Boston’s strong transit foundation, a carbon-neutral transportation system requires a wholesale change in Boston’s transportation culture. Success depends on the intelligent adoption of new technologies, influencing behavior with strong, equitable, and clearly articulated planning and investment, and effective collaboration with state and regional partners. 2 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS • About 2 million metric tons of greenhouse gases are currently emitted each year as a result of travel in and out of Boston. Three-quarters of the city’s GHG emissions come from passenger vehicles, with 15 percent from trucks and 10 percent from transit. GHG emissions are driven by the total vehicle activity, fuel efficiency of vehicles, and carbon intensity of fuels used. Without further policy action, Boston’s transportation GHG emissions are expected to fall 28 percent by 2030 and 40 percent by 2050, mostly as a result of currently adopted Federal and State fuel economy standards. This is a marked improvement, but not nearly enough to attain the City’s goal of carbon neutrality in 2050. • Clean vehicles that rely on low or zero-carbon fuels are the cornerstone to achieving carbon neutrality without compromising mobility. The most viable path forward appears to be electrification of vehicles, in conjunction with the development of a clean energy grid. Achieving widespread electrification will require local policy support and incentives such as investment in home, worksite, and public charging infrastructure, to complement further advancements and cost reductions in electric vehicle technology. However, full electrification by 2050 could increase electricity demand by up to 25 percent compared to 2016 City of Boston consumption. 1 A trip is a one-way movement of an individual by any mode of transport. A person that who bikes from home to a commuter rail stop (1 trip), rides the train to a rail station near work (1 trip), and then walks from the station to her place of work (1 trip) will have made 3 trips. For the purposes of this study, a trip is defined as one that starts or ends in Boston. Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 1 Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation • Without further action, vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) are expected to hold steady, despite increasing population, as growth occurs mainly in centrally-located, transit-rich neighborhoods. Clean transportation investments and policies, including travel pricing, transit investment, bike and walk improvements, and other measures to reduce vehicle travel, could reduce VMT by nearly 30 percent at the most aggressive levels of implementation, with corresponding GHG emission reductions. Clean transportation investments will support mobility, livable neighborhoods, equitable access, and the continued economic growth of the City. Capacity, efficiency, and reliability improvements will be critical to accommodating further population and job growth in the City, which will reduce regional VMT and GHG emissions as people cluster in centrally-located, more transportation-efficient locations. Reducing VMT will also lessen the need for new clean energy sources to power electric vehicles. • Smart mobility options, such as ride-hailing services and self-driving vehicles, have the potential to transform transportation in ways that are not yet fully understood. In today’s policy environment, ride- hailing and self-driving vehicles are likely to primarily serve single-passenger trips and therefore increase VMT and GHG emissions. City policies are needed to shape these new mobility options so that they are used mainly by multiple occupants and they rely on clean vehicle technology. • Three-quarters of Boston’s transportation GHG inventory is generated by trips that start or end outside of the City’s boundaries. Cooperation with neighboring municipalities, as well as state and regional policies, will be needed to fully realize the benefits of clean transportation policies and incentives. • Policy actions for the City and its local, regional, and state partners include: – Actions implemented through annual capital plans and budgets to turn over the vehicle fleet (e.g., EV purchases, public charging stations, outreach programs) and accelerate development of clean infrastructure (e.g., separated bike lanes, fast and reliable transit). – Short-term implementation of land use policies to affect the built environment to set the stage for future clean travel (e.g., EV charging readiness, expanded TDM requirements for new development). – Development and testing of policies to steer emerging mobility options (e.g., occupancy-based trip pricing, curb space management) – to evolve over time as these technologies are more broadly introduced and policy impacts can be evaluated. – Development, analysis, and piloting of longer-term options to shape travel, e.g., congestion pricing, parking pricing, or restrictions on internal combustion engine operation, to test options and develop support. Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 2 Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation 3 INTRODUCTION The scope of this study focused on two general approaches for curtailing emissions: reducing low occupancy automobile use by shifting trips to other modes, and shifting vehicles to be powered by zero-GHG electricity. Conceivably, the electrification strategy by itself could achieve carbon neutrality without any mode shift. An optimistic scenario would enable such a transition to happen readily in which charging an EV is just as easy as filling up a gas tank. Alternatively, options for EV charging in the urban environment could be constrained, and the continued reliance on automobiles continues to place the region at the top of the country’s most congested cites [1]. While electrification could still enable carbon neutrality under such a scenario, the urban environment would be less attractive, leading to more residents and business locating outside of the urban core, where the carbon intensity of lifestyles and economic activity is higher. Lower-income people continue to be burdened by long and expensive trips. We thus focused our analysis on broader-systems solutions that could promote a more efficient, economic, and equitable transportation system that could be more readily electrified. Achieving this requires strategies to reduce vehicle demand in the urban region which rest upon the foundation of a modern transit system that provides rapid and reliable service. When electric automobiles are used to fill the gaps in service, they transport multiple people. Declining demand for vehicles allows for the reallocation of roadway and curb space to dedicated bus and bike lanes. Fewer vehicles on the roads leads to faster travel times for buses and cars, and safer streets for bikers and pedestrians. Such complete-systems solutions can also promote emissions reductions and deliver significant broader benefits. Our analysis below begins by assessing the impacts of single strategies, but then evaluates how these strategies can be integrated together to achieve ambitious GHG reduction goals while improving mobility and accessibility in Boston. 3.1 BOSTON’S TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM Boston’s urban structure and transportation system already support lower per-capita GHG emissions than most American communities. The city is served by six rapid transit lines, multiple high-frequency bus routes, and ferries; most of its neighborhoods are walkable and it is regularly considered one of the nation’s top walking cities. Fewer than half of resident Bostonians drive to work. The City has also invested in bike facilities in recent years, and bicycling has risen to more than 3 percent of commute trips. Boston residents drive about 4,300 miles per year on average, about half the national average of 8,800 miles.2 Nevertheless, the City’s greenhouse gas emissions from transportation are still significant. In 2013, transportation accounted for 27 percent of the City’s GHG emissions, with nearly the entire motorized transportation system running on fossil fuels. Reductions in emissions have occurred much more slowly than in the electricity sector, which has seen a substantial shift to cleaner fuels. To achieve the City’s goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, the City and its business and residents will need to greatly reduce or eliminate the use of carbon-polluting energy sources for all energy uses including transportation. 2 Boston: 2015 total distance traveled for vehicles registered in Boston of 2.8 billion miles (includes household and commercial vehicles), divided by 646,000 population [2]. U.S.: 2.8 trillion light-duty vehicle-miles in 2016 [3], divided by 325 million population. Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 3 Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation 3.2 EXISTING CITY, REGIONAL, AND STATE PLANS AND POLICIES Transportation in Boston is influenced by policies, plans, and funding decisions made by the City as well as by state and regional agencies. References in these plans to GHG emissions and reduction strategies, as well as GHG-focused studies carried out by regional and state agencies, are described below. Existing plans generally move the City and its neighboring cities and towns in a favorable direction for reducing GHG emissions by focusing on transit, walking, biking, clean vehicles, and improved traffic operations rather than roadway expansion. However, recent analyses for regional and state agencies have suggested that, within current funding and policy envelope constraints, the GHG reduction potential of measures in the direct control of transportation agencies alone is limited to a few percent. This report considers additional measures the City and its partners will need to implement to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. 3.2.1 City of Boston Plans The Go Boston 2030 Vision and Action Plan is the long-term mobility plan for the City of Boston [4]. Go Boston 2030 is a resident-driven plan that identifies both aspirational goals and specific projects. It focuses on issues such as reliable and affordable transit choices, access to job centers, and improving walking and biking. The vision framework for the plan includes “climate responsiveness” (which includes decreasing emissions) as one of its three guiding principles, along with equity and economic opportunity. Go Boston 2030 sets aspirational goals for mode use in 2030: increasing public transit by one-third, increasing walking by half, and increasing biking fourfold, while reducing driving alone by half. The plan also sets a target of reducing transportation GHG emissions by 50 percent of 2005 levels by 2030, and notes that this will require working with surrounding communities to affect travel beyond the City’s boundaries through low- emission vehicles and shared travel alternatives. The plan identifies a set of “top projects” that include walking and bicycling improvements, various transit investments, Smart Signal Corridors and Districts, and Neighborhood Mobility microHUBS that provide access points to shared transit resources. It also identifies a set of “top policies,” including state of good repair to sustainably maintain infrastructure; bus route restructuring; autonomous vehicles; and Vision Zero safety initiatives. In addition to traditional infrastructure investments such as improving transit and expanding bicycle facilities, the plan calls for a flexible approach to lead the nation in supporting new mobility technology and innovations in shared transportation that reach all Bostonians. Examples include adaptive traffic signals, revisions to the use of curb space, trip planning information and apps, and increasing the use of clean fuel vehicles. The plan calls for policies that provide incentives for more shared travel and increases to average car occupancy. The City is developing policies for autonomous vehicles to ensure that vehicles are shared, are electric, and can improve mobility options for all residents. The plan also emphasizes affordability, by restructuring transportation costs to address income disparities and mitigating effects of transportation-induced gentrification; promoting active and healthy lifestyles through green corridors, emission reductions, and access to healthcare facilities; and prioritizing the movement of people over cars. Finally, the plan has a focus on equity, including assigning a larger share of capital improvement dollars to underserved neighborhoods to achieve equitable distribution of investment. Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 4 Carbon Free Boston Technical Report Transportation Go Boston 2030 is an aspirational plan that will require the support and funding of other partners (such as the MBTA) to fully implement. Capital projects such as improvements to local streets and paths can be implemented through the City’s annually updated five-year capital plan. In 2017 the City launched the Imagine Boston Capital Plan to move Boston residents’ priorities from idea to action, including investing in the core goals of Go Boston 2030 and other initiatives. The Fiscal Year (FY) 2019-2023 Capital Plan identifies $967 million in local, State, and Federal funding to implement the core initiatives outlined in Go Boston 2030, including safer streets, reliable and predictable travel, and quality transportation choices, as well as keeping the system in a state of good repair [5]. Other City plans and policies are relevant to its transportation future. Imagine Boston 2030: A Plan for the Future of Boston sets a vision for the City across all sectors [6]. It calls for providing significant new mixed-use housing and encouraging job growth in transit-accessible areas at the edges of existing neighborhoods. Housing a Changing City: Boston 2030 outlines a plan to produce 53,000 new units of housing by 2030 [7]. It calls for the City to “prioritize new construction along public transit and increase other options for alternative modes of transportation,” including exploring reform of parking standards to accommodate non-automobile centric development, and increasing the bikeability and walkability of Boston’s neighborhoods by accelerating implementation of the City’s Complete Streets Guidelines. 3.2.2 Regional Plans Boston’s transportation system must be considered within a regional context. The Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) is responsible for long-range transportation planning and capital programming for the region, including all projects and programs that use Federal funds. The most recent long-range plan, Charting Progress to 2040 (adopted in 2015), sets a long-range vision for programming $2.85 billion in federal highway funds during the next 25 years [8]. The plan represents a shift in focus from previous plans by setting aside approximately half of MPO funding to support transit system, bike, and pedestrian projects, rather than primarily funding major roadway improvements. The plan sets forth the following collective transportation vision: A modern transportation system that is safe, uses new technologies, provides equitable access, excellent mobility, and varied transportation options—in support of a sustainable, healthy, livable, and economically vibrant region. The priorities set forth in the plan guide the development of the MPO’s Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) which identifies funding for specific projects over the next five years and is updated annually. GHG reduction is one among many criteria for selecting projects in the TIP. Projects listed in the TIP are typically projects on the state-owned or funded roadway system (major streets, highways, and bridges) as well as transit (MBTA) and off-street shared-use paths. Local street improvements are typically funded and programmed by the City through its five-year capital plan. Boston projects programmed in the Federal Fiscal Year 2018-2022 TIP include traffic signal and intersection improvements, street improvements and reconstruction (Boylston Street, Rutherford Avenue, and Melnea Cass Boulevard); bridge replacement (North Washington Street); and multi-use path construction (New Fenway path). MBTA investments listed in the TIP such as vehicle replacement, signals, and elevator upgrades benefit residents of Boston as well as surrounding communities. In February 2018, the MPO posted a report entitled Promising Greenhouse Gas Reduction Strategies for the Boston Region [9]. This report follows up on the recommendations of the Boston Region MPO’s 2016 Boston University Institute for Sustainable Energy Cambridge Systematics, Inc. 5