« Can Cars Come Clean? STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES Emissions of pollutants from motor vehicles have been the focus of longstanding concerns for both governments and the public at large because of their impact on air quality and human health. More recently, emissions of greenhouse gases have been of growing concern because of their impacts Can Cars Come Clean? on global warming. Despite the sustained increase in the number of vehicles on roads and overall distance travelled, improvements in conventional vehicle and fuel technologies over the past ten years have led to STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION considerable reductions in emissions of local pollutants. These reductions have contributed to improvements in air quality in urban areas in most OECD countries. At the same time, CO2 emissions VEHICLES are continuing to increase by nearly 2% per year. What is the potential of conventional technologies (petrol and diesel) to further reduce local pollutant levels? Is it possible to reduce vehicle fuel consumption, and thereby help prevent a continuous increase in CO emissions? What can be expected from the use of alternative fuels (such as LPG, 2 CNG and biofuels)? Do alternative technologies (such as full electric vehicles or hybrid vehicles) have the potential to reduce both local pollutants and global emissions, and if so, are they able to compete in the marketplace with conventional technologies? In the longer term, what can be expected from the development of fuel cell vehicles? This report provides answers to these important questions, identifies policy options and makes recommendations on actions that would promote the purchase and use of the most environmentally C friendly vehicles. a n C a r s C o m Transport Transport Transport e C le Transport Transport Transport a n ? Transport Transport Transport S T R A Transport Transport Transport T E G IE S Transport Transport Transport F O OECD's books, periodicals and statistical databases are now available via www.SourceOECD.org, our online library. R This book is available to subscribers to the following SourceOECD themes: LO Transport Transport Transport W Environment and Sustainable Development - E Transport M Transport Transport Transport Ask your librarian for more details on how to access OECD books on line, or write to us at ISS [email protected] IO N Transport Transport Transport V E H IC Transport Transport Transport L E S www.oecd.org Transport Transport Transport -:HSTCQE=VUY^ZW: ISBN 92-64-10495-X Transport Transport Transport 77 2004 02 1 P Transport Transport Transport Cover_a.fm Page 1 Friday, February 20, 2004 3:41 PM Can Cars Come Clean? Strategies for Low-Emission Vehicles ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Cover_a.fm Page 2 Friday, February 20, 2004 3:42 PM ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris on 14th December 1960, and which came into force on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall promote policies designed: – to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth and employment and a rising standard of living in member countries, while maintaining financial stability, and thus to contribute to the development of the world economy; – to contribute to sound economic expansion in member as well as non-member countries in the process of economic development; and – to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance with international obligations. The original member countries of the OECD are Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The following countries became members subsequently through accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan (28thApril1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia (7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973), Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996), Poland (22ndNovember 1996), Korea (12th December 1996) and the Slovak Republic (14th December 2000). The Commission of the European Communities takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECDConvention). Publié en français sous le titre: Voitures propres Stratégies pour des véhicules peu polluants © OECD 2004 Permission to reproduce a portion of this work for non-commercial purposes or classroom use should be obtained through the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC), 20, rue des Grands-Augustins, 75006 Paris, France, tel. (33-1) 44 07 47 70, fax (33-1) 46 34 67 19, for every country except the United States. In the United States permission should be obtained through the Copyright Clearance Center, Customer Service, (508)750-8400, 222Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923 USA, or CCC Online: www.copyright.com. All other applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this book should be made to OECD Publications, 2,rueAndré-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France. 3 FOREWORD – FOREWORD The OECD brings together 30 member countries and helps governments meet the challenges of a globalised economy. The OECD’s Programme of Research on Road Transport and Intermodal Linkages (RTR) takes a co-operative international approach to addressing transport issues among OECD member countries. The mission of the RTR Programme is to promote economic development in OECD member countries by enhancing transport safety, efficiency and sustainability through a co-operative research programme on road and intermodal transport. The Programme recommends options for the development and implementation of effective transport policies for members and encourages outreach activities for non-member countries. This study was carried out by the OECD Working Group on Low-Emission Vehicles. It assesses the impact of a wider use of low-emission vehicles in member countries, drawing on experience to date, research results and the responses to a survey to which 18 OECD countries responded. The main section of this report – Policy Options – presents in non-technical language the current and expected performance of conventional and innovative technologies together with the implementation issues associated with each technology. It analyses possible measures to facilitate the introduction of low-emission vehicles, and makes recommendations on policy and market-oriented actions to promote the purchase and widespread use of vehicles that can be considered clean in terms of local and global emissions. It is followed by technical annexes, which present the vehicle emission legislation in force in Europe, North America and Japan in more detail. The annexes also describe the emissions performance and potential of each technology, pro- vide case studies and outline the measures being adopted to promote low-emission vehicles in OECD countries. This report is published on the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 4 – ABSTRACT ABSTRACT (cid:1) ITRD Number: E119515 Emissions of pollutants from motor vehicles have been the focus of longstanding concerns for both governments and the public at large because of their impact on air quality and human health. More recently, emissions of greenhouse gases have been of growing concern because of their impacts on global warming. Despite the sustained increases in the number of vehicles on the roads and the overall distance travelled, substantial improvements in conventional vehicle and fuel technologies over the past ten years have led to considerable reductions in emissions of local pollutants. These reductions have contributed to improvements in air quality in urban areas in most OECD countries. At the same time, CO emissions from road vehicles - which contribute around 23% 2 of total CO emissions in OECD countries - are continuing to increase by nearly 2% per 2 year. This report, undertaken by an OECD Working Group, reviews the potential of con- ventional and innovative technologies (including hybrid and fuel cell vehicles) to reduce both local polluants and greenhouse gas emissions. It also analyses the implementation issues associated with the widespread development and usage of low-emission vehicles, and describes the strategies being implemented in OECD countries to promote them. The report is completed by technical annexes which give detailed information on the current international regulations on vehicle emissions, the development of conventional (petrol and diesel) vehicles and advanced technologies - illustrated by case studies of practical experience with a variety of technologies - and on the incentives implemented in OECD countries to promote these vehicles. Fields: 15 (environment); 90 (vehicles). Keywords: vehicle; emission; emission control; urban area; air pollution; OECD; battery; car; electric vehicle; hybrid vehicle; legislation; international; policy; technology (cid:0) The OECD International Transport Documentation (ITRD) database contains more than 300 000 bibliographical references on transport research literature. About 10 000 references are added each year from the world’s published literature on transport. ITRD is a powerful tool to identify global research on transport, each record containing an informative abstract. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Key Messages 7 Summary and Conclusions 9 Chapter 1. Introduction 25 Chapter 2. Regulated Air Pollutants 27 Chapter 3. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 41 Chapter 4. Conditions Affecting the Widespread Use of Low-Emission Vehicles 71 Chapter 5. Strategies for Promoting Low-Emission Vehicles 81 Technical Annexes 95 Annex A. Status Report on International Regulation of Vehicle Emissions, 97 Greenhouse and Advanced Technology Vehicles Annex B. Traditional and New Technologies 117 Annex C. Overview of the Use of Low-Emission Vehicles 153 Annex D. Information and Incentives in OECD Countries 189 Annex E. Hydrogen Production from Fossil Sources 197 List of Abbreviations 203 Members of the OECD Working Group on Low-Emission Vehicles 205 CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 7 KEY MESSAGES – KEY MESSAGES Local air pollution Over the last ten years, tighter emissions controls on air pollutants from motor vehicles have ensured that emissions of local pollutants from motor vehicles have decreased, in most cases significantly, despite increasing sizes of vehicle fleets and increasing distance travelled. Most OECD countries have legislated tighter new emissions standards for local air pollutants and these will generally take effect in 2004 or 2005. Conventional vehicles with the best current technologies are “near clean” in terms of local air pollution. They already meet the new standards and can be regarded as low-emission vehicles in terms of local pollutants. Overall emissions from current vehicle fleets will continue to decrease as older motor vehicles are replaced by new motor vehicles with the latest technology. Some new technologies, including hybrid vehicles, also offer scope as low-emission vehicles in terms of local air pollutant emissions. However, the market penetration of new technology vehicles has been relatively low to date. Conventional diesel and petrol engine vehicles are expected to remain highly competitive in terms of market share, at least in the short term. Greenhouse gas emissions - CO 2 One of the major current concerns is the increasing levels of CO emissions from the road 2 transport sector which represent around 23% of total CO emissions in OECD countries and are 2 growing at a rate of 2% per annum in absolute values. Technology has been available to substantially reduce fuel consumption and, as a consequence, per-vehicle emissions of CO /greenhouse gases. 2 Despite technological advances, efforts to reduce per-vehicle fuel consumption have been partly offset by higher levels of power and weight per vehicle, in line with consumer preferences for larger vehicles with increased comfort and performance. Further reductions are still possible in per-vehicle fuel consumption and CO emissions from 2 conventional motor vehicles, with high pressure diesel direct injection engines offering the best prospects. In terms of overall emissions from vehicle fleets, improvements in per-vehicle emissions have been to date negated by an increase in the size of vehicle fleets and the growth in the annual distance travelled and this trend is expected to continue. Hybrid (diesel/electric) vehicles and, in the longer term, fuel cell vehicles appear to offer the best prospects amongst new technologies for surpassing the CO emissions performance of con- 2 ventional diesel and petrol engine motor vehicles while meeting market requirements for vehicle performance. The future emission performance of vehicle fleets depends on consumers’ vehicle purchase decisions. The official test cycles do not fully inform consumers on the emissions performance and fuel consumption of new vehicles in real use because they do not reflect real-world driving conditions and the use of vehicle equipment and accessories. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 9 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS – SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Overview Transport networks perform a key role in modern societies in meeting the needs of the people and facilitating trade and industry. Road transport plays a central part in these networks, and while providing a lot of positive benefits, the operation of road vehicles can also lead to adverse environmental impacts. These include local air pollutants and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Worldwide, petroleum-based fuels dominate the transport fuel market, supplying around 96% of the transportation demand. At the global level the use of the different alternative fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), compressed natural gas (CNG) or biofuels in the transport sector is not significant, although in some countries there is very large usage. In OECD countries, transportation (including road transport) accounted for around 62% of the final consumption of oil in 2000. Road transport was responsible for the major share of oil consumption by the transportation sector. To control emissions of local pollutants from motor vehicles, member countries have legislated vehicle emissions regulations which have been tightened considerably over the last 20 years. The current and future European, US and Japanese vehicle emission standards impose strict limits on vehicle air pollutant emissions known to have most effect on local pollution (CO, NO , VOC, PM ). Equivalent standards are also adopted in x 10 a range of other OECD countries. Some other motor vehicle emissions are not specifically identified in the air pollutants currently regulated by the various emission standards. There is a lack of knowledge of the impact on human health and the environment of these non-regulated emissions. One of the major current concerns is the increasing greenhouse gas emissions from the use of petroleum fuels, with the transport sector being a major contributor. On a worldwide basis in 2000, transport (including road transport) produced 23% of total CO 2 emissions and road transport alone was responsible for 18% of total CO emissions 2 worldwide. In OECD countries in 2000, transport (including road transport) was res- ponsible for 27% of CO emissions and road transport alone was responsible for 23% of 2 CO emissions (i.e. 86% of transport emissions) (IEA, 2002a). 2 To address these concerns, policy makers have largely focused on vehicle and fuel- based measures, as these are often simpler and less politically sensitive to implement than measures which directly impact on vehicle use, such as road pricing – even if the evidence suggests that pricing vehicle use may be more effective. In addition, measures which would require significant changes to existing urban infrastructure, including the location of schools, offices, factories, houses, etc., are often difficult to implement. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 10 – SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Low-emission vehicles are not the “magic bullet” to the problem of pollutant and greenhouse emissions. However, the widespread adoption of low-emission vehicles – particularly very low-emission vehicles operating on fuels with a lower life-cycle carbon content – offer the capacity to deliver significant reductions in emissions from the transport sector, even in an environment of increased transport activity. The main findings and conclusions on the key emissions-related issues – and the potential offered by low-emission vehicles to address these issues – are set out below. Emissions from motor vehicles Conventional vehicles Emissions causing local air pollution The strategy of progressively tighter standards and regulations for emissions from conventional motor vehicles has worked well in terms of reduced vehicle emissions of local and regional air pollutants. Over the last 20 years, tighter standards have led to progressive improvements in vehicle technology. Improved engine technologies and fuels have contributed to signi- ficant reductions in emissions of local air pollutants from new vehicles. New petrol vehicles sold in Europe from 2000 onwards (and thus meeting “Euro 3” standards) emit around 90% less CO, NO and HC than vehicles sold in the 1980s, and emissions from x new diesel vehicles have also been reduced significantly. This has contributed to re- ductions in local pollutants as newer vehicles with lower emissions have replaced older, more polluting vehicles. In most OECD countries, fleet emissions of NO , CO and HC were at their highest x levels in the early 1990s. Since then, they have dropped significantly (by 20-50%), despite a continuous increase in vehicle-kilometres travelled (+25% between 1990 and 2000). The overall result illustrates that technological improvements have made a significant contribution to improvements in local air quality in most OECD countries over this period. The current vehicle emission standards are due to be tightened further (Tier 2 in the United States in 2004, “Euro 4” in Europe in 2005 and new long-term regulation in Japan in 2005). After the programmed introduction of these new standards (and equivalent standards adopted in other countries), all new conventional petrol and diesel vehicles that meet these tighter standards will be extremely low emitters (and therefore “near clean”) in terms of local air pollutants. The expected availability of conventional motor vehicles with such low emissions of local pollutants is an important development that significantly improves the prospects for widespread use of low-emission vehicles in future. Conventional petrol vehicles meeting Euro 4 and/or Tier 2 standards can be readily regarded as low-emission vehicles in an air pollution sense. With respect to diesel vehicles, this may also be the case, depending on whether they are supplied to the market with advanced after-treatment systems (diesel engines may be able to meet Euro 4 standards without particulate filter traps or de-NO devices). With the application of x exhaust after-treatment and filter traps, light-duty diesel vehicles could perform as well as petrol vehicles – even in terms of NO and PM emissions – and will therefore also be x properly considered “low-emission vehicles”. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004 11 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS – As the programmed tightening in standards takes effect and older technology vehicles in current fleets are replaced with conventional vehicles with the best current technology, the improvements in per-vehicle emissions of local pollutants will continue and levels of local pollutant emissions from motor vehicle fleets will continue to fall. Emissions causing global warming The situation with greenhouse gas emissions is quite different. There is continuing concern about the level of GHG emissions – particularly CO – in 2 the context of global warming and climate change. GHG emissions from transport in OECD countries are about 27% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and in absolute terms, are currently estimated to be growing at the rate of around 2% per annum. Over the past ten years, CO emissions from road transport have increased by 24 % in 2 OECD countries. There are no internationally agreed standards for the maximum emission of green- house gases from new cars, although a number of countries have set targets for the fuel consumption of individual cars and fleets or developed voluntary agreements with the industry to reduce the average CO emissions of new cars. For example: 2 (cid:1) In Europe, an agreement was reached in 1998 between the European Commission and the European automobile industry (ACEA) to reduce the emissions of CO on 2 average by 25% (compared with 1995) for new cars sold in 2008 and to reach an average emission level of 140g/km. Similar agreements have been made between the Commission and the Japanese and Korean automobile industry (JAMA, KAMA). (cid:1) In Japan, there are vehicle energy efficiency targets for 2010, which all Japanese car manufacturers have to meet. Because of the close relationship between fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, these efficiency targets will influ- ence GHG emissions. (cid:1) In California, there is a law requiring automakers to reduce GHG emissions from non-commercial vehicles starting in the 2009 model year. The new law does not set specific limits or targets, but instead requires the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop and adopt regulations by 1 January 2005. However, the law is being opposed in court by the industry, which is likely to cause delay in its implementation. Technology is available to substantially reduce fuel consumption per vehicle and, as a consequence, per-vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases. However, despite the techno- logical advances in engine efficiency, efforts to reduce per-vehicle fuel consumption have been partly offset by market trends towards increasing power and weight of vehicles, in line with consumer preferences for larger vehicles with higher levels of comfort and performance. In addition, improvements in vehicle efficiency have been negated by an increase in the vehicle fleet and in the average annual mileage. High pressure direct injection diesel technology offers, today and in the near future, the best results from conventional vehicles in terms of fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions, given the technologies currently available and all the aspects of vehicle per- formance sought by consumers (including on-road performance). Further improvements in the CO performance of diesel vehicles are possible through the use of hybrid tech- 2 nology and regenerative braking. CAN CARS COME CLEAN? - STRATEGIES FOR LOW-EMISSION VEHICLES – ISBN-92-64-10495-X ©OECD 2004