ChallengestoDemocracyinthe21stCentury The series Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century was initiated by the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research (NCCR) Democracy, an interdisciplinary research programme launched by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the University of Zurich in 2005.The programme examines how globalization and mediatization challenge democracy today (www.nccr- democracy.uzh.ch). SeriesEditor:HanspeterKriesi,UniversityofZurich,Switzerland Democracy faces substantial challenges as we move into the 21st century. The West faces malaise; multi-level governance structures pose democratic challenges; and the path of democratization rarely runs smoothly. This series examines democracy across the full range of these contemporary conditions. It publishes innovative research on established democracies, democratizing polities and democracy in multi-level governance structures. The series seeks to break down artificial divisions between different disciplines, by simultane- ously drawing on political communication, comparative politics, international relations,politicaltheory,andpoliticaleconomy. SeriesEditorialBoard: MarcBühlmann,UniversityofBerne,Switzerland ClaesdeVreese,UniversityofAmsterdam,theNetherlands FrankEsser,UniversityofZurich,Switzerland HerbertKitschelt,DukeUniversity,USA SandraLavenex,UniversityofLucerne,Switzerland JörgMatthes,UniversityofVienna,Austria GianpietroMazzoleni,UniversityofMilano,Italy WolfgangMerkel,WZB-Berlin,Germany Titlesinclude: LaurentBernhard CAMPAIGNSTRATEGYINDIRECTDEMOCRACY HanspeterKriesi POLITICALCOMMUNICATIONINDIRECTDEMOCRATICCAMPAIGNS EnlighteningorManipulating? MaijaSetäläandTheoSchiller(editors) CITIZEN’SINITIATIVESINEUROPE ProceduresandConsequencesofAgenda-SettingbyCitizens ChallengestoDemocracyinthe21stCentury SeriesStandingOrderISBN978–0–230–30487–1(hardback) and978–0–230–30488–8(paperback) (outsideNorthAmericaonly) You can receive future titles in this series as they are published by placing a standing order. Please contact your bookseller or, in case of difficulty, write to usattheaddressbelowwithyournameandaddress,thetitleoftheseriesand theISBNsquotedabove. Customer Services Department, Macmillan Distribution Ltd, Houndmills, Basingstoke,HampshireRG216XS,England Campaign Strategy in Direct Democracy Laurent Bernhard Post-DoctoralResearcher,NCCRDemocracy,UniversityofZurich,Zurich,Switzerland, andUniversityofBerne,Berne,Switzerland ©LaurentBernhard2012 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2012 978-1-137-01133-6 Allrightsreserved.Noreproduction,copyortransmissionofthis publicationmaybemadewithoutwrittenpermission. Noportionofthispublicationmaybereproduced,copiedortransmitted savewithwrittenpermissionorinaccordancewiththeprovisionsofthe Copyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988,orunderthetermsofanylicence permittinglimitedcopyingissuedbytheCopyrightLicensingAgency, SaffronHouse,6–10KirbyStreet,LondonEC1N8TS. Anypersonwhodoesanyunauthorizedactinrelationtothispublication maybeliabletocriminalprosecutionandcivilclaimsfordamages. Theauthorhasassertedhisrighttobeidentifiedastheauthorofthiswork inaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentsAct1988. Firstpublished2012by PALGRAVEMACMILLAN PalgraveMacmillanintheUKisanimprintofMacmillanPublishersLimited, registeredinEngland,companynumber785998,ofHoundmills,Basingstoke, HampshireRG216XS. PalgraveMacmillanintheUSisadivisionofStMartin’sPressLLC, 175FifthAvenue,NewYork,NY10010. PalgraveMacmillanistheglobalacademicimprintoftheabovecompanies andhascompaniesandrepresentativesthroughouttheworld. Palgrave®andMacmillan®areregisteredtrademarksintheUnitedStates, theUnitedKingdom,Europeandothercountries. ISBN 978-1-349-43643-9 ISBN 978-1-137-01134-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137011343 Thisbookisprintedonpapersuitableforrecyclingandmadefromfully managedandsustainedforestsources.Logging,pulpingandmanufacturing processesareexpectedtoconformtotheenvironmentalregulationsofthe countryoforigin. AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. AcatalogrecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 Contents ListofTablesandFigures vi ListofAbbreviationsandAcronyms x 1 Introduction 1 2 TheoreticalFramework 18 3 TheStrategicContext 31 4 TheProfilesoftheCampaigns 68 5 CoalitionFormation 102 6 MessageDevelopment 124 7 MessageDelivery 151 8 PowerAnalysis 176 9 Conclusion 199 Appendices 214 Notes 231 References 241 Index 253 v Tables and Figures Tables 1.1 Overviewofstudiesaboutdirect-democratic campaigning 5 1.2 Overviewoftheselectedcampaigns 13 1.3 Thedistributionofselectedactors(inpercentages),by actortypesandcampaign 16 2.1 Classificationofmessages 25 3.1 Typologyofdirect-democraticinstitutions 33 3.2 Previousvotesinthedomainofimmigration (1980–2006) 42 3.3 Previousvotesinthedomainofhealthpolitics (1980–2006) 50 3.4 Previousvotesinthedomainsofwelfarestateissues andlabourmarketregulation(1980–2006) 56 3.5 Previousvotesinthedomainofeconomic liberalizations(1980–2006) 62 4.1 Usedresources,bycampandcampaign 97 4.2 Supportfortheballotpropositionatthreestages 99 5.1 Coalitiontypes,basedonsharedbeliefs 109 5.2 Thecomponentcoalitionsatthelevelofthe 4-blocks-solutions,bycampaign 115 6.1 Expectedmainmessage,bycampaignandcoalition 131 6.2 Messageselectionintheasylumcampaign,bycamp andblock 137 6.3 Messageselectioninthenaturalizationcampaign,by campandblock 138 6.4 Messageselectioninthehealthcarearticlecampaign,by campandblock 139 6.5 Messageselectioninthesinglehealthinsurance campaign,bycampandblock 141 6.6 Messageselectioninthedisabledinsurancecampaign, bycampandblock 142 6.7 Messageselectioninthepensioncampaign,bycamp andblock 143 vi ListofTablesandFigures vii 6.8 Messageselectioninthecorporatetaxcampaign,by campandblock 144 6.9 Messageselectionintherighttosuecampaign,bycamp andblock 145 6.10 Campaigntone,bycampandcampaign 146 6.11 Orderedprobitmodelsexplainingtheextentofnegative campaigning,bycampaign 148 7.1 Thecontextualconditionsofcantonaltargeting strategiesintheeightselectedcampaigns 156 7.2 Cantonaltargetingplaninthecampaignonpensions 157 7.3 Theuseofcommunicationactivities,bycommunication channelandcampaign 159 7.4 Theproportionofinterviewedorganizationsthatreport tofocusonagivenconstituency,bycampaffiliation andcampaign,inpercentages 162 7.5 Probitregressionmodelsexplainingthetargetingof swingvoters,bycampaign 163 7.6 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof thedirectmediachannel,bycampaign 167 7.7 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof theindirectmediachannel,bycampaign 168 7.8 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof thedirectorganizationalchannel,bycampaign 169 7.9 Orderedprobitregressionmodelsexplainingtheuseof theindirectorganizationalchannel,bycampaign 170 7.10 Timeinterval(indays)betweenthecampaignstartand theballotdate,byactorsandcampaigns 172 7.11 OLSregressionmodelsexplainingthelaunchingofthe campaign,bycampaign 173 8.1 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftheasylumcampaign 181 8.2 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthenaturalization campaign 182 8.3 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthehealthcarearticle campaign 182 8.4 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthesinglehealth insurancecampaign 183 8.5 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthedisabledinsurance campaign 183 8.6 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftheold-agepension campaign 184 viii ListofTablesandFigures 8.7 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsofthecorporatetax campaign 184 8.8 Thetenmostpowerfulactorsoftherighttosue campaign 185 8.9 OLSregressionmodelsexplainingtheactors’ standardizedpowerlevels,bycampaign 193 8.10 Correlationcoefficientsbetweenresidualsandpower levels,bycampaign 196 B.1 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedintheasylumlaw campaign,byblock 218 B.2 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthenaturalization campaign,byblock 220 B.3 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthehealtharticle campaign,byblock 221 B.4 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthesinglehealth insurancecampaign,byblock 222 B.5 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthedisabled insurancecampaign,byblock 223 B.6 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthepensions campaign,byblock 225 B.7 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedinthecorporatetax campaign,byblock 226 B.8 Overviewoftheactorsinvolvedintherighttosue campaign,byblock 227 C.1 Theselecteditemsofissueownership,bycampaignand block 229 Figures 2.1 Correlationbetweentheexpectedoutcomeandthe proportionofvictory-seekingorganizations 20 2.2 Thetwoopposingcampsandtheircorresponding componentcoalitions 24 2.3 Targetingofconstituencies 26 2.4 Fourcommunicationchannels 27 5.1 Beliefsintheasylumlawcampaign,bycomponent coalition 116 5.2 Beliefsinthenaturalizationcampaign,bycomponent coalition 117 5.3 Beliefsinthesinglehealthinsurancecampaign,by componentcoalition 119 ListofTablesandFigures ix 5.4 Beliefsinthedisabledinsurancecampaign,by componentcoalition 120 5.5 Beliefsinthecampaignonold-agepensions,by componentcoalition 120 5.6 Beliefsinthecorporatetaxcampaign,bycomponent coalition 121 5.7 Beliefsintherighttosueinitiativecampaign,by componentcoalition 121 5.8 Beliefsinthecampaignonthehealthcarearticle,by componentcoalition 122 A.1 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe asylumlaw 214 A.2 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe naturalizationinitiative(adjusted) 214 A.3 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe healthcarearticle 215 A.4 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthesingle healthinsurance 215 A.5 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe disabledinsurancereform 216 A.6 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofpensions 216 A.7 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseofthe corporatetaxreform 217 A.8 ThefirstthreesplitsbyCONCORinthecaseoftheright tosueinitiative 217