“Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century” By Anne Case and Angus Deaton David Cutler Harvard University One of the most important epidemiological and economic facts of our time • Rising mortality for non-Hispanic whites – Especially prime age, lower SES – Absolute, and in relationship to other countries. • Change has occurred over a long period of time • Implications for Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, DI, and other policies – Is now the right time to take away health insurance coverage from low income whites? A few points • The effect is much greater for the working age population. • The Durkheim theory of deaths: performance relative to expectations. Hard to tell. • The ability to translate pain into death has accelerated. Share of People Surviving from 40 to 60 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 86% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 International Comparison of Life Expectancy at Age 65 Life Expectancy for Entire Population 22 21 20 5 US 6 e 19 g A t A e 18 f i L f o 17 s r a e Y 16 15 14 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 International Comparison of Life Expectancy at Age 65 Life Expectancy for Entire Population 22 France 21 Canada Sweden 20 Austria 5 US 6 e 19 g A t A e 18 f iL UK f o 17 s r a e Y 16 15 14 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Cohort or Year Effects? Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites 1.15 1.10 ) 1 = 9 1.05 9 9 40-44 1 ( 1.00 y t i l a t ro 0.95 M e v i 0.90 t a l e R 0.85 0.80 0.75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Cohort or Year Effects? Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites 1.15 1.10 ) 1 = 45-49 9 1.05 9 9 40-44 1 ( 1.00 y t i l a t ro 0.95 M e v i 0.90 t a l e R 0.85 0.80 0.75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Cohort or Year Effects? Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites 1.15 50-54 1.10 ) 1 = 45-49 9 1.05 9 9 40-44 1 ( 1.00 y t i l a t ro 0.95 M e v i 0.90 t a l e R 0.85 0.80 0.75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Cohort or Year Effects? Relative Mortality by Cohort, Non-Hispanic Whites 1.15 50-54 1.10 ) 1 = 45-49 9 1.05 9 9 40-44 1 ( 1.00 y t i l a t 55-59 ro 0.95 M e v i 0.90 t a l e R 0.85 0.80 0.75 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015