STUDIES IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL HISTORY This series, specially commissioned by the Economic History Society, provides a guide to the current interpretations of the key themes of economic and social history in which advances have recently been made or in which there has been significant debate. Originally entitled 'Studies in Economic History', in 1974 the series had its scope extended to include topics in social history, and the new series title, 'Studies in Economic and Social History', signalises this development. The series gives readers access to the best work done, helps them to draw their own conclusions in major fields of study, and by means of the critical bibliography in each book guides them in the selection of further reading. The aim is to provide a springboard to further work rather than a set of pre packaged conclusions or short-cuts. ECONOMIC HISTORY SOCIETY The Economic History Society, which numbers over 3000 members, publishes the Economic History Review four times a year (free to members) and holds an annual conference. Enquiries about membership should be addressed to the Assistant Secretary, Economic History Society, Peter house, Cambridge. Full-time students may join at special rates. STUDIES IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL HISTORY Edited for the Economic History Society by M. W. Flinn and T. C. Smout PUBLISHED B. W. E. Alford Depression and Recovery? British Economic Growth, 1918--1939 S. D. Chapman The Cotton Industry in the Industrial Revolution R. A. Church The Great Victorian Boom, 1850-1873 D. C. Coleman Industry in Tudor and Stuart England P. L. Cottrell British Overseas Investment in the Nineteenth Century Ralph Davis English Overseas Trade, 1500-1700 M. E. Falkus The Industrialisation of Russia, 1700-1914 M. W. Flinn British Population Growth, 1700-1850 John Hatcher Plague, Population and the English Economy, 1348--1530 J. R. Hay The Origins of the Liberal Welfare Reforms, 1906-1914 R. H. Hilton The Decline of Serfdom in Medieval England E. L. Jones The Development of English Agriculture, 1815-1873 John Lovell British Trade Unions, 1875-1933 J. D. Marshall The Old Poor Law, 1795-1834 Alan S. Milward The Economic Effects of the Two World Wars on Britain (;. E. Mingay Enclosure and the Small Farmer in the Age of the Industrial Revolution Rosalirul Mitchison British Population Change Since 1860 A. E. Musson British Trade Unions, 1800-1875 R. B. Outhwaite Inflation in Tudor and Early Stuart England P. L. Payne British Entrepreneurship in the Nineteenth Century Michael E. Rose The Relief of Poverty, 1834-1914 S. B. Saul The Myth of the Great Depression, 1873-1896 Arthur J. Taylor Laissez-faire and State Intervention in Nineteenth-century Britain Peter T emin Causal Factors in American Economic Growth in the Nineteenth Century OTHER TITLES ARE IN PREPARATION British Population Change Since 1860 Prepared for The Economic History Society by ROSALIND MITCHISON Reader in Economic History, University of Edinburgh M iCI The Economic History Society 19 77 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published 1977 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in Delhi Dublin Hong Kong Johannesburg Lagos Melbourne New York Singapore and Tokyo ISBN 978-1-349-01520-7 ISBN 978-1-349-01518-4 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-01518-4 This book is sold subject to the standard conditions of the Net Book Agreement. The paperback edition of this book is sold subject to the condition that it shall not. by way of trade or otherwise, be lent, resold, hired out, or otherwise circulated without the publisher's prior consent in any form of binding or cover other than that in which it is published and without a similar condition including this condition being imposed on the subse- quent purchaser. Contents Acknowledgements 6 Note on References 6 Editors' Preface 7 Graphs 8 1 Basic Sources and General Background 11 2 Fertility 23 3 Mortality 39 4 The Impact of War 58 5 Migration 62 6 Marriage 74 7 Structure 76 8 The Literature of Forecast 80 Bibliography 86 Index 96 Acknowledgements I am grateful for the opportunity of seeing unpublished work by M. W. Flinn, R. Short, A. D. Wilkie and]. M. Winter. Note on References References in the text within square brackets relate to the arabic-numbered items in the Bibliography, which is divided into two sections: I, containing basic literature relating to the whole subject; and 11, containing other works on specialised or subsidiary areas. The arabic numbering runs consecutively throughout the Bibliography, and in the text the relevant sections are in dicated by the prefix I or 11. Editors' Preface RECOGNISING the need for guidance through the burgeoning and confusing literature that has grown around many of the major topics in economic and social history, the Economic History Society hopes in this series of short books to offer some help to students and teachers. The books are intended to serve as guides to current interpretations in major fields of economic and social history in which important advances have recently been made, or in which there has recently been some significant debate. Each book aims to survey recent work, to indicate the full scope of the particular problem as it has been opened up by recent scholarship, and to draw such conclusions as seem warranted, given the pre sent state of knowledge and understanding. The authors will often be at pains to point out where, in their view, because of a lack of information or inadequate research, they believe it is premature to attempt to draw firm con clusions. While authors will not hesitate to review recent and older work critically, the books are not intended to serve as vehicles for their own specialist views: the aim is to provide a balanced summary rather than an exposi tion of the author's own viewpoint. Each book will in clude a descriptive bibliography. Above all, the aim is to help the reader to draw his own conclusions, and to guide him in the selection of further reading as a means to this end, rather than to present him with a set of pre packaged conclusions. M. W. FLINN T. C. SMOUT Editors 60 20~~~~~~--~--~--~--~--~--~---L--~ 1861 1881 1901 1921 1941 1961 Years Gmph I Total Population of Great Britain, 1861-1971, in millions Sourc~: B. R. Mitchell and P. Deane, Abstract of Bntzsh Hzstoncal Statzstzcs and Annual Ah•lmd of S/altrltr.l". Graph 1 Birth Rates, England and Wales, and Scotland, 1860-2 to 1970-2 .\imrrr: as for Graph I. --England and Wales 30 ---Scotland e.. 25 ~ cii 20 15 10~.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-L~~~~ 1860-2 1880-2 1900-2 1920-2 1940-2 1960-2 Years -- England ond Woles --- Scotland II. ' ' \ \ \ \ " ......... , 14 ......... ..... _...... ...... ..... ' ' _____ _ ' .... 12 10~~L-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~~~ 1860-2 1880-2 1900-2 1920-2 1940-2 1960-2 Yeors Graph 3 Crude Death Rates, England and Wales. and Scotland, 1860-2 to 1970-2 So~tm•: as for Graph I. (;mf'h I Crude and Standardised Death Rates, England and Wales, 1871-80 to )9:\1-40. So11rcr: Be11jamin [I, 3[. 22 ··. --Crudedeoth rote, (;mf'h :i Crude and Standard ......... persons i~ed Death Rates, S('()tland, 1931-71. ········,• .. . ---rSottaen, dfeamrdois leeds deoth So11ru•: A111111al Rfpor/ of R~l!,l.f­ llflf (;r•tu·ml. Smtlaml (1971 ) . •, ----- Stondordosed deoth \., rote, males --Crude deoth rote, ....... persons ---Stondordosed 8 18;,~-8-0~~1~8~91~-~19~0~0~-1-91~1-~2~0~-1~9~~-40 19311939 1951 1961 1971 Decodes Yeors